Missed runs and bus bunching

[Busjack]

...Yesterday's RedEye article, by indicating that Huberman is trying to apply management methods to bus bunching and dirt, reinforces in my mind that Kruesi was incompetent.

A press release following yesterday's CTA Board Meeting states that Huberman's management efficiencies have cut the number of bus runs missed because of mechanical problems by 89% and manpower shortages by 34%.

While we all know that a certain number of buses remain in the garages or the South Shops, this is the first I heard that runs were actually being missed. Maybe someone with inside experience (not self proclaimed experts), can address:

• What percentage of the runs are actually missed? The release talks about daily runs, but one would assume that the graphs are per month. Of course, the total number of runs per day is not listed (there are 8 garages and potentially 1000 run numbers each, but of course, not all run numbers are used).
  
• Are there any criteria for deciding which run gets missed, as opposed to another?
  
• What does this do to the projected and actual interval between buses on a line?
  
• Why doesn't the extra board make up the temporary shortages of operators?
  

While the rest of us have assumed that bus bunching is a result of traffic conditions and poor service control, this indicates that there is more than meets the eye.

[trainman8119]

A press release following yesterday's CTA Board Meeting states that Huberman's management efficiencies have cut the number of bus runs missed because of mechanical problems by 89% and manpower shortages by 34%.

Don't get caught up in Huberman being such a wonderful guy. My immediate thought when I see that is that there should be a reduction in missed runs due to equipment simply because there are 500 new buses on the street, and there should be less mechanical failures with this equipment being on the street. I would think this could account for 50-60% of the mechanical problems eliminated. So Ron may think he is efficient, but I think a big part of that would be him doing something at just the right time and taking credit for it. He might be doing something good, I just wouldn't put too much stock in this just yet, and I would look at it as more one tooting his own horn (more conning the public and pols) !!!

As for manpower, I am not sure exactly what he has done to reduce the shortages, unless he actually hired someone. rmad could probably answer that more clearly. That would always solve a manpower shortage. If he eliminated paid time off, that would account for people showing up for work. No workee, no payee always gets people to come to work !!!!

Generally trippers or piece runs would get skipped before a full run (at least that was the case with Pace). If a trip or (full) run is missed, the workers out there are going to pick up and drop off more people...more and longer stops, thus slowing down a bus and thus creating the potential for a bunching situation. The extra board usually gets work on a first come first serve need. Run 1 goes to work before Run 8. Run 1 would usually get filled by an extra board if the need arises. However, if Run 1 is a tripper, it might get skipped in favor of Run 8 if Run 8 is a full run. Also, if the extra board is made up of part timers, it is possible that they are restricted to the number of hours allowed to work. In my days at Pace, part timers were held to 30 hours a week, no matter how much work there was. We were not allowed to exceed 30 hours or else they would have been liable to pay benefits, which was a no-no. I would imagine there would be something similar at CTA. The part-timers would love to work long, make mega overtime and cash in on benefits, but that would get costly, so therefore there are restrictions on how long they can work. So it is possible that extra boarders are extremely limited in how much they can actually work, and therefore this, in itself, would create somewhat of a manpower shortage.

[Busjack]

Don't get caught up in Huberman being such a wonderful guy. My immediate thought when I see that is that there should be a reduction in missed runs due to equipment simply because there are 500 new buses on the street, and there should be less mechanical failures with this equipment being on the street.

I don't worship him, but I am willing to give credit. Since the charts are for Aug., Sept. and Oct. 2007, CTA received maybe 50 new buses during that time, not 500 (he would have to take credit back to November 2005 for that).

As for manpower, I am not sure exactly what he has done to reduce the shortages, unless he actually hired someone.

Supposedly he is dealing with the rampant absenteeism noted by the Auditor General. How, I don't know.

Thanks for the tripper information. Also, if Pace was skipping trips, I don't see how it could maintain a semblance of a schedule at all (except on an urban type route like 270 or 352). Since I mentioned 352, pace2322 might be able to mention if trip skipping occurs at South, and how they deal with it.

[trainman8119]

I don't worship him, but I am willing to give credit. Since the charts are for Aug., Sept. and Oct. 2007, CTA received maybe 50 new buses during that time, not 500 (he would have to take credit back to November 2005 for that).

True, but the New Flyers are newer than the Flxibles and TMC's, even if the oldest new New Flyer is just over a year or so old. I would think they would be less prone to break down. So I think the numbers still might be just a little bit skewed.

[nextstopchicago]

I don't worship him, but I am willing to give credit. Since the charts are for Aug., Sept. and Oct. 2007, CTA received maybe 50 new buses during that time, not 500 (he would have to take credit back to November 2005 for that).

Busjack, I'm not sure what you're saying here. The question is how many buses were delivered since the period that this year was being compared to -- so Aug. to Oct. 2006. Are you saying only 50 buses were delivered since then?

He wasn't comparing to the summer of 2007, and he shouldn't since there are seasonal issues with bus maintenance and with staff reliability. I'm inclined to believe delivery of new buses may have something to do with the changes.

[Busjack]

Busjack, I'm not sure what you're saying here. The question is how many buses were delivered since the period that this year was being compared to -- so Aug. to Oct. 2006. Are you saying only 50 buses were delivered since then?

1. I am saying that in the period of August to October 2007 [not 2006 as you typed], yes, maybe 50 buses were delivered. 545 buses were delivered from maybe January 2006, but the graph to which I referred was for August, September, and October 2007. It was a month-to-month comparison, not a year to year one. (On further reflection, I should have also posted the link to the presentation, which is here; the graph at issue is on page 16).
   
2. This seems to be getting off the point I was trying to make which was what is the effect of all the missed runs and what routes aren't being covered.
   

[nextstopchicago]

1. I am saying that in the period of August to October 2007 [not 2006 as you typed], yes, maybe 50 buses were delivered. 545 buses were delivered from maybe January 2006, but the graph to which I referred was for August, September, and October 2007. It was a month-to-month comparison, not a year to year one. (On further reflection, I should have also posted the link to the presentation, which is here; the graph at issue is on page 16).
   
2. This seems to be getting off the point I was trying to make which was what is the effect of all the missed runs and what routes aren't being covered.
   

Aggh. Sorry. So he was comparing October to August, and not making same month last year comparisons.

That's much less convincing to me. I have no idea whether August was representative of pre-Huberman equipment and scheduling issues, or merely a bad month. I thought it was 3 months under Huberman compared to the same 3 months a year before. Oh well.

I'd love to hear more information about the core of your question, so consider this a bump to keep the topic in play. Anybody know whether particular garages have more missed runs?