2017 CTA Budget

[Busjack]

45 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

So they intend to replace the #1000's with two different orders?

That's what it appears. Also, NF had something that options are now limited to 3 years instead of 5.

[BusHunter]

24 minutes ago, Busjack said:

That's what it appears. Also, NF had something that options are now limited to 3 years instead of 5.

Yeah but an option is the same bus order. Not that I'm saying your wrong about anything. I realize your just giving me a FYI.

In relation to your comment, perhaps CTA will try to do two bus orders off the same bus model just piggyback them, if that doesn't sound too ridiculous. But let me remind everyone the #1000's were received in 3 years, 2006-09, so NF can do that order. Now if Novabus for instance got the order they would probably need the six years to fill it cause it took them two or three just to fill the #7900's order and that was 40 percent of what 1030 come out to. Don't know if the new option rules apply at Novabus though.

[Busjack]

1 hour ago, BusHunter said:

In relation to your comment, perhaps CTA will try to do two bus orders off the same bus model just piggyback them, if that doesn't sound too ridiculous. But let me remind everyone the #1000's were received in 3 years, 2006-09, so NF can do that order.

The limit on options means they couldn't piggyback them. They would have to rebid at the end of the contract.

On your second point, the issue there was that Huberman moved up options 3 and 4 (1630 up) because he figured that the interest on the bonds was less than the inflation adjustment if the NF contract were exercised in 5 years. That was a departure from the Kruesi view that options should be spread out (i.e. there was a break between 6708 and 6709, and similarly there was a break between the base and option 7900s orders).

In effect, CTA now has the same problem it had when the 4400s and 5300s came due for replacement at the same time, and similarly is saying that it is going to do a life extending overhaul on 400 1000s. There may also be the issue that there isn't enough money foreseen to replace 1000 buses in 3 years.

However, like the 3200s, I don't see how rehabbing 1000s pays unless the eventual replacement is waaaaay off.

[BusHunter]

Probably it would just be a lite mechanical rehab nothing like what we just had on the 1000s. 

As far as the orders your right that theycouldn't piggyback them due to the clicking 3 year clock. But they would have to rebid in year two 

[BusHunter]

I was going to mention this a couple weeks ago and forgot about it. I was reading in the budget, that the old novas they wanted to replace with a bus lease and just buy buses to replace the #1000's. I was like oh yeah??? I think IIRC, that stated this was going to happen in the next two years. I need to look that up. They never said what buses they would lease.

[Busjack]

5 hours ago, BusHunter said:

I was going to mention this a couple weeks ago and forgot about it. I was reading in the budget, that the old novas they wanted to replace with a bus lease and just buy buses to replace the #1000's. I was like oh yeah??? I think IIRC, that stated this was going to happen in the next two years. I need to look that up. They never said what buses they would lease.

You misread it. It mentions lease expenses, but they still have leases on 4000-4149. If they got them in 2009 and it is a 12 year lease,. the payments last until 2021.

[Busjack]

Indicative that CTA is losing passengers at an increasing rate is that the April 2017 Budget Presentation states that April Fare and Pass Total revenues are down $1.5 million from budget and $1.8 million from last year (approximately 3.4% and 4.0% respectively). Similarly, YTD numbers are down 3.75% and 4.65%, respectively. Average fare of about $1.14 is slightly up. Note that even free rides are down 10%.