CTA 2016 Budget

[Busjack]

I was looking for something not previously disclosed, which gets us to the 2016-2020 Capital Improvement Plan, page 70 (74 of the pdf) "In addition, FY 2016-
2020 funding of $22 million will support the purchase of up to 50 electric or clean diesel buses." However, at current prices, $22 million buys 20 electric buses, so I am not sure what they are smoking ($22 million would support buying only 44 diesel buses). Replacement of any NFs isn't until FY 2019-2020.

There are glowing references to the electric buses, but you guys claim not to have seen them recently.

There are also frequent* references to having put all 714 rail cars in service, but no mention of the Orange Line, while plenty of other future projects are mentioned.

*This budget book seems to be the height of redundancy. I suppose one could use the search function to see how many times "Mayor Rahm Emanuel" was mentioned, but what's the point?

 

Edited October 23, 2015 by Busjack
math fixed

[Busjack]

The other thing I should have mentioned is that the rehab of the 208 articulated buses is scheduled for 2016.

[BusHunter]

It's kind of hard to discuss the budget with no budget link, so here it is.

http://www.transitchicago.com/assets/1/finance_budget/2016_Budget_Book_WEB_FINAL_Compressed.pdf

 

[Juniorz]

Nothing really shocking here, it's kind of like reading the 2015 budget book expect now Claypool's signature is replaced by Mr. Carter and many initiatives either have completion dates, tentative dates or within the planning stages.

It's a consistent budget, pretty straight forward and to the point. 

Congratulations to President Carter on his 1st budget proposal with out any major hurdles.

[BusHunter]

Ok now that I've seen it. I can point out a few facts I learned:

Interesting on pg 17 they state that after all buses are delivered from Novabus, they will have a fleet that is 85 percent new or rehabbed. Now they state 1,851 buses are in the fleet. If you do the math 85 percent is 278 buses. Now if you subtract the 207 #4000's, that will leave you 71 buses. (and i don't think they count #4300's as old buses yet) So I may be right that 71 #6400 buses will continue in service even after #8324 shows up.

2nd thing, #2600 retirements will only be up to 100 railcars by the end of 2015. Throughout 2016 they will slowly retire the next 100. So it doesn't look like the Orange line will be getting #5000's until 2016.

3rd thing, the #7900's, the 300 buses which I thought for sure they would receive by the end of the year, it turns out in the budget they state they will only receive 275 by the end of the year, the rest in spring 2016. With the absence so far of #8178 at south shops, it looks like Novabus will not deliver the work stoppage buses after all this year.

I don't get it in March 2015, funds were awarded for the O'Hare Blue line modernization and here we set 8 months later with nothing done past a repainting of Rosemont, which is not even in the contract. Sounds as bad as the #3200's rehab which hasn't produced a rehab car in the same span of months. The budget says the O'hare kennedy modernization will not happen now until fall 2016.

Now this leads me into my commentary or opinion. While the front page says that the CTA has one of the most modern transportation systems, here on the nw side they have failed us, with not as yet one single piece of new or rehabbed equipment and it's slated to last into the middle of next year at least. The newest bus remains on a poster at jefferson park terminal. They can't even rehab the O'Hare branch, that's how effectively they have treated this part of town. I guess we'll see if something happens next year. I'll really be shocked though if any new equipment whether it be #7000's or #8200's come to this part of town. They can't even receive 2nd hand buses!!

 

[BusHunter]

One other thing, the budget seems to acknowledge a shortfall of 200 million, (I think it was 261 million), that the CTA is counting on the state paying it. The state is so screwed up now million dollar lottery winners can't receive more than 600 dollars on a winning ticket. A budget hasn't even been signed in the state and it lingers on and on. That's sort of chancy, creating a budget saying they will get something they haven't yet received. If it blows up on CTA, they will certainly be doing bus cuts in 2017. I want to know how the state is going to back pay people it hasn't paid, when this gets resolved. It is creating a huge deficit by not paying. Like a guy said on Pinside, "we have the Chicago Cubs, a terrible state and a city that's going to the crapper, trouble is I live here"

[Busjack]

Nothing really shocking here, it's kind of like reading the 2015 budget book expect now Claypool's signature is replaced by Mr. Carter and many initiatives either have completion dates, tentative dates or within the planning stages.

It's a consistent budget, pretty straight forward and to the point. 

Congratulations to President Carter on his 1st budget proposal with out any major hurdles.

You might be right. After slobbering over how Emanuel gave Carter the opportunity to come back, Claypool's name keeps coming up.

But "with out any major hurdles"? I know one has to make assumptions, but pointing out that there isn't a state budget nor a long term federal transportation bill sure seems a big hurdle to me. The question is going to be that if their assumptions about the state do not pan out, whether another 2007 Doomsday scenario ("we'll cut service 40% Sept. 1 if the governor doesn't bail us out") will be threatened.

As for the "planning stages," it sure doesn't look like they are any closer to turning the first shovel of dirt on the Red Line extension.

[Busjack]

Ok now that I've seen it. I can point out a few facts I learned:

Interesting on pg 17 they state that after all buses are delivered from Novabus, they will have a fleet that is 85 percent new or rehabbed. Now they state 1,851 buses are in the fleet. If you do the math 85 percent is 278 buses. Now if you subtract the 207 #4000's, that will leave you 71 buses. (and i don't think they count #4300's as old buses yet) So I may be right that 71 #6400 buses will continue in service even after #8324 shows up.

....

Maybe 50, given my note above about 50 buses are supposedly in the 5 year capital plan, although if you want to talk math, note that i also pointed out that their numbers on the cost don't add up.

..

2nd thing, #2600 retirements will only be up to 100 railcars by the end of 2015. Throughout 2016 they will slowly retire the next 100. So it doesn't look like the Orange line will be getting #5000's until 2016.

....

As I noted above, they would have mentioned something about "and soon on the Orange Line," if they meant that.

....

Now this leads me into my commentary or opinion. While the front page says that the CTA has one of the most modern transportation systems, here on the nw side they have failed us, with not as yet one single piece of new or rehabbed equipment and it's slated to last into the middle of next year at least. The newest bus remains on a poster at jefferson park terminal. They can't even rehab the O'Hare branch, that's how effectively they have treated this part of town. I guess we'll see if something happens next year. I'll really be shocked though if any new equipment whether it be #7000's or #8200's come to this part of town. They can't even receive 2nd hand buses!!

 

Yes, they basically ignored that issue. They made more about sending a roofer to the Sheridan Red Line station than that. Also, as I previously noted, other than the elevator at Addison, the Blue Line work is mostly patchwork.

Maybe getting back to Juniorz point on deadlines, one wonders about priorities when they are now doing the Purple Express track work, but imply that they are fairly quickly starting the RPM. I assume not that quickly.

[BusHunter]

As far as the Orange line, we keep seeing these #5000 trainers, so something is up, it's just the budget paints such a slow picture of retirement, they will just trickle in little by little. Like I have said before, they can't retire any more than around 100 railcars before they start going into the Orange line's #2600's.

As far as the Blue, the O'hare modernization project was supposed to be four years, so far it will be 4 before they even complete the nw sections. They have two phases after that and now they are including Belmont in the final 5th phase. So it could be a 5 or 6 year project now. They are really slow on construction and upgrades. I almost fell over when I saw they finally hooked up the Division/Blue line platform train tracker signs after being installed about 6-9 months ago. They still haven't touched the rest. I guess we'll have to wait until fall 2016.

Sheridan they probably would want to repair because they probably would like to modernize it but they can't. It's footprint makes that hard to do. So it might just receive a Damen/Milwaukee style upgrade.

Edited October 23, 2015 by BusHunter

[Busjack]

...

Sheridan they probably would want to repair because they probably would like to modernize it but they can't. It's footprint makes that hard to do. So it might just receive a Damen/Milwaukee style upgrade.

I read it as basically only dealing with water damage.

[briman94]

As far as the Orange line, we keep seeing these #5000 trainers, so something is up, it's just the budget paints such a slow picture of retirement, they will just trickle in little by little. Like I have said before, they can't retire any more than around 100 railcars before they start going into the Orange line's #2600's.

As part of my "getting up way earlier than usual every day" challenge, I've been taking regular trips to Midway while the weather's still nice. I haven't seen anything yet in the yard but we do keep seeing these training trains all over the place. Of course you can count on me to report here when they finally show up.

[Busjack]

The budget also hints at a purchase of a mix of diesels, hybrids and electric buses in the future, so it might not be out of the question for them to go for the 25 electric buses. I don't get why they cut the Novabus option short 25 buses, but maybe that would explain it...

That gets me down to a couple of things I didn't see in the budget, although I am sure that the five year capital plan is subject to revision:

• They didn't say anything about the length of those 50 buses, but one would figure that the 2011 solicitation for 50-150 articulated buses is dead. Nothing in that indicated any fleet or service expansion.
• The Fisk Garage isn't mentioned. Only item dealing with garages and shops is "Improvement Facilities Systemwide" (page 84/88).

[BusHunter]

That gets me down to a couple of things I didn't see in the budget, although I am sure that the five year capital plan is subject to revision:

• They didn't say anything about the length of those 50 buses, but one would figure that the 2011 solicitation for 50-150 articulated buses is dead. Nothing in that indicated any fleet or service expansion.
• The Fisk Garage isn't mentioned. Only item dealing with garages and shops is "Improvement Facilities Systemwide" (page 84/88).

I see now the 50 buses mentioned on pg 70 of the budget that they are interested in purchasing mentioning diesels or electric buses. So maybe they will be going after the electric buses. The only hangup with them is they don't have a range yet that would let them work all day long. They would have to be tripper service only. I would strongly suggest CTA looks at the extended range electric buses. Maybe the technology in a few years would allow them to run a bus for 8-10 hours. That would really be super for the fuel budget.

Also on pg 70 they hint at the replacement of the #1000 series buses in fiscal year 2019-20. So maybe they could have a contract going on the startup of the replacement of those by then.

[Busjack]

Given it's a few years out, I'm not going to hold my breath on that considering with CTA things almost always change once thatthat future point comes. Remember they also had plans to purchase additional artics in the same solitication that is now the order of 7900s. The artic portion of that still hasn't been awarded and looks like it's dead looking at current CTA actions.

The things I took from those items were (1) they sure aren't going to go forward on the artic solicitation (I really doubt it can be binding on the bidders 5 years later), (2) as BusHunter indicated, it might be to make up for being 50-70 short and not yet exercising the option for the last 25, and (3) CTA certainly doesn't plan to get much of anything until the time for replacing the 1000s, but the "you know what" hits the fan for about 1034 buses at once.

In a similar sense, the budget is a bit disingenuous about the statements about "the 7000s are a departure from waiting 30 years between orders." Sure, now, if they are received as predicted,but then the oldest cars will be the 5000s, which won't be eligible for replacement until 2041 or so, even though they now have some obsolete features, as conceded by the 7000s spec. The effect is not much different than getting the 2400s/2600s/3200s in about a 15-year span.

[Busjack]

I see now the 50 buses mentioned on pg 70 of the budget that they are interested in purchasing mentioning diesels or electric buses. So maybe they will be going after the electric buses. The only hangup with them is they don't have a range yet that would let them work all day long. They would have to be tripper service only. I would strongly suggest CTA looks at the extended range electric buses. Maybe the technology in a few years would allow them to run a bus for 8-10 hours. That would really be super for the fuel budget.

,,,

That certainly seems the takeaway from the statement about recharging at the Kedzie Garage. There wasn't any indication,like with Proterra or the Winnipeg airport about having an overhead charger at a turnaround. I figure that with the 85 mile range reported by Altoona for the XE40, that gets maybe 3 round trips on 52 or 82. But then, except for a garage like 77th, it appears that over half the buses are in the garage midday, so maybe that isn't a problem.

What may be a bigger constraint is that the price of diesel is down (about $2.59 at the pump, which probably means about $1.70 tax free, down from about $4.59 at the pump last year), while electricity is up. CNG is even cheaper, but CTA isn't going in that direction. Maybe with all the low viaducts, they can't.

[BusHunter]

That certainly seems the takeaway from the statement about recharging at the Kedzie Garage. There wasn't any indication,like with Proterra or the Winnipeg airport about having an overhead charger at a turnaround. I figure that with the 85 mile range reported by Altoona for the XE40, that gets maybe 3 round trips on 52 or 82. But then, except for a garage like 77th, it appears that over half the buses are in the garage midday, so maybe that isn't a problem.

What may be a bigger constraint is that the price of diesel is down (about $2.59 at the pump, which probably means about $1.70 tax free, down from about $4.59 at the pump last year), while electricity is up. CNG is even cheaper, but CTA isn't going in that direction. Maybe with all the low viaducts, they can't.

In the budget CTA says the range is 100 miles on those buses, they have ran those 7,000 miles so far.

In a similar sense, the budget is a bit disingenuous about the statements about "the 7000s are a departure from waiting 30 years between orders." Sure, now, if they are received as predicted,but then the oldest cars will be the 5000s, which won't be eligible for replacement until 2041 or so, even though they now have some obsolete features, as conceded by the 7000s spec. The effect is not much different than getting the 2400s/2600s/3200s in about a 15-year span.

Yeah, they are already talking about quarter life rehabs on the #5000's in 2019, so it does sound like they won't last more than 2040.

Edited October 24, 2015 by BusHunter

[Busjack]

In the budget CTA says the range is 100 miles on those buses, they have ran those 7,000 miles so far.

Another thing on which you have to do the math. The average bus has a service life of about 500,000 miles and 12 years, which would be 42,000 miles a year. There are questions how much these buses have been out in the past year, but if the 7,000 is for both buses, that's 1/12th of a standard bus. Maybe they are getting better range than the FTA said (i.e. FTA said that the range of a BYD was 125 miles, while BYD claims 175),

...

Yeah, they are already talking about quarter life rehabs on the #5000's in 2019, so it does sound like they won't last more than 2040.

In any event, they still have to outlast the FTA service life, and 2040 would still mean 15 years from when we presume the 256 option 7000s would be delivered.

[BusHunter]

Another thing on which you have to do the math. The average bus has a service life of about 500,000 miles and 12 years, which would be 42,000 miles a year. There are questions how much these buses have been out in the past year, but if the 7,000 is for both buses, that's 1/12th of a standard bus. Maybe they are getting better range than the FTA said (i.e. FTA said that the range of a BYD was 125 miles, while BYD claims 175),

In any event, they still have to outlast the FTA service life, and 2040 would still mean 15 years from when we presume the 256 option 7000s would be delivered.

In the budget they did say 25 years is the service life. I remember you guys second guessing me when I said that before. If quarter life rehabs are in 8 years, CTA says 2011-2019, then they are anticipating 32 years. Somehow, I think if they can never get the longitudinal seats fixed, they may end up being another #2000 series and lasting 29 years.

[Busjack]

In the budget they did say 25 years is the service life. I remember you guys second guessing me when I said that before. If quarter life rehabs are in 8 years, CTA says 2011-2019, then they are anticipating 32 years. Somehow, I think if they can never get the longitudinal seats fixed, they may end up being another #2000 series and lasting 29 years.

But you have to figure when the first deliveries of 5000s were. That thread started in 2009, so 2019 would be 10 years.

[BusHunter]

But you have to figure when the first deliveries of 5000s were. That thread started in 2009, so 2019 would be 10 years.

CTA said 2011 in the budget. I guess prototypes don't count.

[Busjack]

Hilkevitch column, surprisingly not behind the paywall, but not saying much other than some ribbon cutting dates are "murky."

[BusHunter]

They mention in the budget that the blue line kennedy station reconstruction project will begin along with addison (Addison, Irving Park, Montrose, Harlem and Cumberland) and will all be completed by fall 2016. They mention stair upgrades, but i think the harlem ones are marble so that doesn't really make sense. They must just be referring to the metal staircases with the risers. All they could really do is cosmetic changes in the 1983 era stations as the stations are fairly new. (furniture/skylights,lighting, platform improvements)  I wonder though does Addison get a new escalator? I think they said jeff gets it.

Edited October 26, 2015 by BusHunter

[Busjack]

....I wonder though does Addison get a new escalator? I think they said jeff gets it.

If they have to move it to install the elevator, no sense reinstalling old junk. The question basically becomes how they redid the 3 Red Line south stations, such as Garfield.

[BusHunter]

If they have to move it to install the elevator, no sense reinstalling old junk. The question basically becomes how they redid the 3 Red Line south stations, such as Garfield.

 

i don't think it needs to be moved