CTA slowly running out of money for operations

[BusHunter]

Was reading an interesting article on chicago l.org in the links that says cta is running out of cash to operate the system. Its borrowing 40 million the max it can borrow with a daily budget of 4.3 million so the article says it has 10 days of operations there. Dont know how dire the situation is but running buses empty is not helping matters. Dorval Carter says the cta still has a daily ridership of 250,000 which I think is overstated but in my opinion continued running of rush hour service is just opening up a deeper hole they are trying to plug. They get their funding from sales tax revenue which runs a few months behind so they havent felt the covid 19 money punch yet. So this has me wondering why Lori Lightfoot and co insists on running buses when soon there may not be any service to run. 800 million is supposed to come from the government by the end of the month but that is more than 10 days away. But even then with a prolonged shutdown (CNN projects we need to shelter in place until august) how can they survive. But that's the world we now live in, it's a world of survival with smart decisions being key to ones success. Hopefully they can come out of this in one piece. 

[NewFlyerMCI]

17 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Was reading an interesting article on chicago l.org in the links that says cta is running out of cash to operate the system. Its borrowing 40 million the max it can borrow with a daily budget of 4.3 million so the article says it has 10 days of operations there. Dont know how dire the situation is but running buses empty is not helping matters. Dorval Carter says the cta still has a daily ridership of 250,000 which I think is overstated but in my opinion continued running of rush hour service is just opening up a deeper hole they are trying to plug. They get their funding from sales tax revenue which runs a few months behind so they havent felt the covid 19 money punch yet. So this has me wondering why Lori Lightfoot and co insists on running buses when soon there may not be any service to run. 800 million is supposed to come from the government by the end of the month but that is more than 10 days away. But even then with a prolonged shutdown (CNN projects we need to shelter in place until august) how can they survive. But that's the world we now live in, it's a world of survival with smart decisions being key to ones success. Hopefully they can come out of this in one piece. 

I knew the lack of official response within the first weeks of this being made serious was going to hurt. Looking at the bus tracker to today, it's so confusing why LaSalle, LaSalle Express & Michigan Express (bar 146 maybe) continuned to run or continued to run with artics. And on top of that, there were areas where service could probably have been cut (1, 11, 24, 37, 96, 31, 43, 100, 108, etc) sooner rather than later

[artthouwill]

1 hour ago, BusHunter said:

Was reading an interesting article on chicago l.org in the links that says cta is running out of cash to operate the system. Its borrowing 40 million the max it can borrow with a daily budget of 4.3 million so the article says it has 10 days of operations there. Dont know how dire the situation is but running buses empty is not helping matters. Dorval Carter says the cta still has a daily ridership of 250,000 which I think is overstated but in my opinion continued running of rush hour service is just opening up a deeper hole they are trying to plug. They get their funding from sales tax revenue which runs a few months behind so they havent felt the covid 19 money punch yet. So this has me wondering why Lori Lightfoot and co insists on running buses when soon there may not be any service to run. 800 million is supposed to come from the government by the end of the month but that is more than 10 days away. But even then with a prolonged shutdown (CNN projects we need to shelter in place until august) how can they survive. But that's the world we now live in, it's a world of survival with smart decisions being key to ones success. Hopefully they can come out of this in one piece. 

Another thing to consider.   CTA gets advertising revenue from ad wraps on buses and trains.   A steep reduction in service could affect that revenue as companies don't pay for wrapping to have those buses and trains sitting in yards.  They are rolling billboards 

 

Truth be told,  the feds will have to step in and bail out these transit agencies  

[BusHunter]

12 hours ago, artthouwill said:

Another thing to consider.   CTA gets advertising revenue from ad wraps on buses and trains.   A steep reduction in service could affect that revenue as companies don't pay for wrapping to have those buses and trains sitting in yards.  They are rolling billboards 

 

Truth be told,  the feds will have to step in and bail out these transit agencies  

Its definitely going to be a challenge. The airlines are for the most part at a ground stop except for cargo and a few flights none of which has more than 15 people. How and when are people ever going to get the confidence to ride in a confined space for hrs. This is going to end like 911 with virus scares and sporadic shutdowns until everyone calms down. The american auto industry is sol for 2020 and basically going all truck is going to hurt them. We need cheap cars to help boost back the economy. We just might have seen the sunset of the american auto industry. Theres going to be alot of fallout from this. The government is going to be eating Ramen soup for the foreseeable future!! 

[artthouwill]

16 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Its definitely going to be a challenge. The airlines are for the most part at a ground stop except for cargo and a few flights none of which has more than 15 people. How and when are people ever going to get the confidence to ride in a confined space for hrs. This is going to end like 911 with virus scares and sporadic shutdowns until everyone calms down. The american auto industry is sol for 2020 and basically going all truck is going to hurt them. We need cheap cars to help boost back the economy. We just might have seen the sunset of the american auto industry. Theres going to be alot of fallout from this. The government is going to be eating Ramen soup for the foreseeable future!! 

Airlines are indeed struggling but here's the key difference.   Public transportation is pretty dependent on state and federal funding.  However,  in Illinois,  law requires that half of CTA'S budget comes from fare collections. 

Airlines,  on the other hand,  are generally or have been generally self sufficient.   Only time I remember them needing government assistance was during the aftermath of the 2001 terrorist attacks.   Airlines around the world are looking for their governments to keep them afloat.  Some airlines like Delta and British Airways are still okay, although Delta is still trying to get government aid.  Other airlines like Virgin Atlantic may not survive at all.

To me, the auto industry should survive,  but honestly they make way too many new vehicles.   In order for those to be affordable. you have to stretch payments to 6, 7, or 8 years.  Yet there is a glutton of used cars in dealership inventories.  In a lot of cases. that's the cheaper option.   

As history has shown,  the cheaper autos get, more people abandon public transportation except in New York City,  where most people take public transportation and do not own cars. Government has shifted financial resources to highways at public transportation 's expense.

[Tcmetro]

According to WTTW, the federal bailout amounts to $1.43 billion for the Chicago region, which should be enough to cover lost revenues. 

I think a bigger pressure is going to be the effect of Covid on operators. NYC MTA has experienced a significant outbreak among their staff, and it's really something that other agencies need to consider to prevent it replicating. 

 

https://news.wttw.com/2020/04/07/chicago-s-transit-agencies-got-143b-bailout-money-will-it-be-enough

[NewFlyerMCI]

1 hour ago, Tcmetro said:

According to WTTW, the federal bailout amounts to $1.43 billion for the Chicago region, which should be enough to cover lost revenues. 

I think a bigger pressure is going to be the effect of Covid on operators. NYC MTA has experienced a significant outbreak among their staff, and it's really something that other agencies need to consider to prevent it replicating. 

 

https://news.wttw.com/2020/04/07/chicago-s-transit-agencies-got-143b-bailout-money-will-it-be-enough

This is the important one for me. I stated some weeks ago about how Baltimore was about to close an entire garage due to 1-2 positive cases until public outcry forced them to reconsider, as that garage was the base for 9 of the 17 busiest routes in the system and almost every east-west crosstown bus route for about 6 miles from the city center. What I don't want is for a situation like this to occur via proxy from all the drivers being sick however.

[BusHunter]

I had an AA pilot in my car last week who stated he had a whole 9 people on board. So I asked him why the airlines  fly the planes with 10 passengers when gas costs so much more. He said they get a subsidy from the government if they dont fly they dont get it. He told me a story of one flight with one passenger on board. 

Doing some research on the spanish flu of 1918, they had 3 outbreaks, 1st was in the same time period as us. So life went back to normal in the summer in August of 1918, the virus seemed to be dead, cases were low. Once the weather started changing in sept cases skyrocketed, the virus changed its properties to become more deadly killing the young, but middle age people 35 to 50 didn't get as sick. October of 1918 was the deadliest month in America. The second surge died down around December but a 3rd surge appeared for the spring of 1919. All in all the virus didnt really get under control for 2 years. That was in the age of no penicillin and no microscopes so we should fare better but like groundhog day we may find ourselves sheltering In  place again.  Dont know how the economy will fare under so long a hiatus. Guess well find out.

[artthouwill]

38 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

I had an AA pilot in my car last week who stated he had a whole 9 people on board. So I asked him why the airlines  fly the planes with 10 passengers when gas costs so much more. He said they get a subsidy from the government if they dont fly they dont get it. He told me a story of one flight with one passenger on board. 

Doing some research on the spanish flu of 1918, they had 3 outbreaks, 1st was in the same time period as us. So life went back to normal in the summer in August of 1918, the virus seemed to be dead, cases were low. Once the weather started changing in sept cases skyrocketed, the virus changed its properties to become more deadly killing the young, but middle age people 35 to 50 didn't get as sick. October of 1918 was the deadliest month in America. The second surge died down around December but a 3rd surge appeared for the spring of 1919. All in all the virus didnt really get under control for 2 years. That was in the age of no penicillin and no microscopes so we should fare better but like groundhog day we may find ourselves sheltering In  place again.  Dont know how the economy will fare under so long a hiatus. Guess well find out.

Certain air routes get subsidized by the government.   It's called Essential Air Service.   These serve communities that have small airports that are 3 hours or more from a commercial airport.   Those planes are usually small turboprop.

That said, because air service is essential to the economy of the United states,  air service has to be maintained at a minimum.  Thus an airline cannot competently shut down and then get government assistance.   Remember airlines like Vanguard were out of business after 9/11.  ATA folded in 2008.  Government assistance is only for Essential  Air Service or in the interest of supporting the nation's aviation industry in a time of economic uncertainty.   Airlines have been reducing flights drastically.   They have canceled some orders for new planes, and they have been retiring older planes that might otherwise still be flying in normal circumstances  

The technological advance that occurred during the "Spanish Flu" was the introduction of radio waves..

Back to Essential Air Service.  The program was created to serve rural, underserved communities and connect them to midsize or larger airports.   The government offers a subsidy to guarantee that the airlines that fly these routes would be profitable. thus incentivizing the airlines to fly them.   Usually two of more airlines will bid for the right to fly a route of the airline"s choice.  For example. Airline A proposes to fly from Cody, Wyoming to Denver where passengers can connect to an array of United flights.   Airline B proposes to fly in Seattle  where passengers can connect to several Delta or Alaska Air flights.  The airport authority that runs the airport will award the bid to one of the airlines based on cost and what route the local community will prefer. The I.S. government gives the subsidies to the airport authority and they pay the airline of choice. 

In other cases. airports, at their own discretion,  may provide incentives to attract commercial service to their airport.  For example. if Gary Airport had the funds  they could offer a regional airline like Skywest or Republic Airways a revenue guarantee to fly from Gary to. say Houston or Dallas or Minneapolis.  

So your particular pilot might've been flying one of those.  I've driven pilots that work for the big airlines as well as those who fly for the regionals.  By the way. most. If not nearly all,regionals,  are contracted with American, Alaska  Delta,  and United.  So the American Eagles, Delta Connection,  and United Express flights are flown by regional airlines on behalf of the branded airlines.

[BusHunter]

I can't say for sure if he was an American Eagle pilot or not but he told me he was doing a round trip to California and back. He told me American has cut 70 percent of it's flights this month. 80 percent next month with canceled flights pushing into the summer. The airport is unbelievably quiet. All AA international flights are cut as of April. It's really strange not seeing any planes taking off. Japan Airlines is flying and I saw SW was flying out at midway. I haven't seen a United. Frontier is flying. Passing by the international terminal only 2 planes were at the gate. Incredible.

The spanish flu is actually an American virus. Because that was WWI, the americans would not acknowledge they were sick, as the europeans would trounce on a weak enemy. When the Europeans got sick, they did the same thing. It wasn't until the virus reached Spain and the spanish talked about it it got its name. Spanish Flu. So the virus traveled with the troops the US to Europe and back for the 2nd wave. There was a big gathering in Sept, where the virus had a great opportunity to spread. I believe it was in Philly or Boston and just like that there were several cases back on the map. So to be fearful of Lollapoloosa is legitimate. The city don't want to can it as it means tons of revenue, but it's better to be safe than sorry.

[artthouwill]

58 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

I can't say for sure if he was an American Eagle pilot or not but he told me he was doing a round trip to California and back. He told me American has cut 70 percent of it's flights this month. 80 percent next month with canceled flights pushing into the summer. The airport is unbelievably quiet. All AA international flights are cut as of April. It's really strange not seeing any planes taking off. Japan Airlines is flying and I saw SW was flying out at midway. I haven't seen a United. Frontier is flying. Passing by the international terminal only 2 planes were at the gate. Incredible.

The spanish flu is actually an American virus. Because that was WWI, the americans would not acknowledge they were sick, as the europeans would trounce on a weak enemy. When the Europeans got sick, they did the same thing. It wasn't until the virus reached Spain and the spanish talked about it it got its name. Spanish Flu. So the virus traveled with the troops the US to Europe and back for the 2nd wave. There was a big gathering in Sept, where the virus had a great opportunity to spread. I believe it was in Philly or Boston and just like that there were several cases back on the map. So to be fearful of Lollapoloosa is legitimate. The city don't want to can it as it means tons of revenue, but it's better to be safe than sorry.

If that pilot was flying to California,  he definitely wasn't a regional pilot.   He works for AA.  United "banks" its flights.   They all come in around the same time  and leave around the same time.   This allows connecting passengers to connect without long layovers.   But yeah its strange to have little traffic at O'Hare.   However,  upper level congestion could be wicked at times, especially Monday mornings.