Rahm-bo runs it's course? (ARTICLE from City Journal magazine)

[ctrabs74]

Barring a miracle, it looks as though the Rahm Emmanuel era in Chicago may be coming to an end if things don't start looking up.

http://www.city-journal.org/2014/eon0523ar.html

(I wasn't sure where to post this, but I would think it's relevant given how the mayor (in theory) has all this sway over the CTA.)

[strictures]

Barring a miracle, it looks as though the Rahm Emmanuel era in Chicago may be coming to an end if things don't start looking up.

http://www.city-journal.org/2014/eon0523ar.html

(I wasn't sure where to post this, but I would think it's relevant given how the mayor (in theory) has all this sway over the CTA.)

One article by an unknown person in a magazine I've never heard of means nothing.

He will outspent his opponents & get every piece of dirt on them.

If Karen Lewis runs or supports someone, that person will be tarred with wanting to raise taxes ti infinity to pay for her pension.

[Busjack]

One article by an unknown person in a magazine I've never heard of means nothing.....

It isn't one article, but there have been several, including a Sun-Times poll that he only has 29% support, but anyway...

Barring a miracle, it looks as though the Rahm Emmanuel era in Chicago may be coming to an end if things don't start looking up.

http://www.city-journal.org/2014/eon0523ar.html

(I wasn't sure where to post this, but I would think it's relevant given how the mayor (in theory) has all this sway over the CTA.)

We've noted his autocratic (and illegal) sway over the CTA, but people are also getting the message on such things as schools, union relations, not getting the job done on crime, etc.

However, the inherent problem throughout Illinois politics is that there isn't any credible opponent. Some are throwing Bob Fioretti's hat out there, but he has less respect for the constitutional limits of government than Rahm has. The so called "Lakeside liberals" who were once thought to be opponents of Daley are all in Rahm's camp. Forrest Claypool was once believed to be Mr. Clean, but now Rahm has given him a job for which he is not qualified.

On the other hand, Karen Lewis is as strictures portrayed her (plus has all the appeal of a label of Gorilla Glue), the Black vote hasn't been able to get itself together since Harold Washington, and other opposition (such as Gery Chico last time) are in other unions' pockets.

The only way to get the governor out is that Bruce Rauner has the personal money to buy up all air time, but Rauner gave Rahm a job, so he isn't going to put up an opponent against him. In fact, many were shocked that Rahm endorsed Quinn, but I guess Rahm has to be a good Democrat.

Also, it appears that Daley did leave quite a mess when he abdicated.

But to sum it up, Rahm's attitude is "if you don't like me, vote me out," knowing that he doesn't have opposition,.

[jajuan]

It isn't one article, but there have been several, including a Sun-Times poll that he only has 29% support, but anyway...

We've noted his autocratic (and illegal) sway over the CTA, but people are also getting the message on such things as schools, union relations, not getting the job done on crime, etc.

However, the inherent problem throughout Illinois politics is that there isn't any credible opponent. Some are throwing Bob Fioretti's hat out there, but he has less respect for the constitutional limits of government than Rahm has. The so called "Lakeside liberals" who were once thought to be opponents of Daley are all in Rahm's camp. Forrest Claypool was once believed to be Mr. Clean, but now Rahm has given him a job for which he is not qualified.

On the other hand, Karen Lewis is as strictures portrayed her (plus has all the appeal of a label of Gorilla Glue), the Black vote hasn't been able to get itself together since Harold Washington, and other opposition (such as Gery Chico last time) are in other unions' pockets.

The only way to get the governor out is that Bruce Rauner has the personal money to buy up all air time, but Rauner gave Rahm a job, so he isn't going to put up an opponent against him. In fact, many were shocked that Rahm endorsed Quinn, but I guess Rahm has to be a good Democrat.

Also, it appears that Daley did leave quite a mess when he abdicated.

But to sum it up, Rahm's attitude is "if you don't like me, vote me out," knowing that he doesn't have opposition,.

Agreed, though I would steer away from that "the Black vote hasn't been able to get its act together since Harold Washington" type comment since as one of those among the so called Black vote, it comes off as some inherent expectation or belief that Black voters are supposed to just come together behind just one candidate whom often times is also Black, which I've always found a little silly, when we like other residents who actually care enough to cast a vote listen to the candidates at hand and vote for that one whom we each personally feels best covers those issues we're concerned about. Plus I also think Rauner probably has that extra burden of walking an even thinner tightrope of not appearing to come off as a right wing idiot as the national Republican Party is increasingly becoming in a lot of ways that serve to turn off those more moderate constituencies in northeast Illinois (not just speaking of Chicago or its geographically closer suburbs) who make up a good chunk of the state's voting population as Joe Walsh found out when he ran for reelection against current Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth and as Bill Brady found out when Quinn ran for reelection to grab his first full term as Illinois' governor.

[Busjack]

Agreed, though I would steer away from that "the Black vote hasn't been able to get its act together since Harold Washington" type comment since as one of those among the so called Black vote,... Plus I also think Rauner probably has that extra burden of walking an even thinner tightrope of not appearing to come off as a right wing idiot as the national Republican Party is increasingly becoming in a lot of ways that serve to turn off those more moderate constituencies in northeast Illinois (not just speaking of Chicago or its geographically closer suburbs) who make up a good chunk of the state's voting population as Joe Walsh found out when he ran for reelection against current Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth and as Bill Brady found out when Quinn ran for reelection to grab his first full term as Illinois' governor.

• The Black vote statement is based on the last election, where the Sun-Times had a front page that it will lose because there were three candidates (Meeks, Davis, and Moseley Braun) each getting 9%. Two of them dropped out and Braun still got 9% of the total vote, and Rahm swept the Black areas.* I don't think Preckwinkle is going to challenge since she is safe where she is, so who is the candidate: the remaining Shaw Brother** or Todd Mentally Deficient Stroger?
• I guess you missed the articles last week that mainstream Republicans decided to defeat Tea Party challengers in the U.S. Senate races. Is Mark Kirk a right winger?

__________

* If someone of the 3 had received 27%, that would have forced a run-off, but as it was Emanuel got 55% in the first round, and it was over.

**Is he even a resident, after the two of them worked over Dolton?

[jajuan]

• The Black vote statement is based on the last election, where the Sun-Times had a front page that it will lose because there were three candidates (Meeks, Davis, and Moseley Braun) each getting 9%. Two of them dropped out and Braun still got 9% of the total vote, and Rahm swept the Black areas.* I don't think Preckwinkle is going to challenge since she is safe where she is, so who is the candidate: the remaining Shaw Brother** or Todd Mentally Deficient Stroger?
• I guess you missed the articles last week that mainstream Republicans decided to defeat Tea Party challengers in the U.S. Senate races. Is Mark Kirk a right winger?

__________

* If someone of the 3 had received 27%, that would have forced a run-off, but as it was Emanuel got 55% in the first round, and it was over.

**Is he even a resident, after the two of them worked over Dolton?

On the first bullet point, I still read that as Black residents going with a candidate they felt was best for the job as there are Black residents such as myself who did not vote for either three and put their vote in for someone else (and in my case no that wasn't for that egomaniac Emanuel). So again the news media and the others need to get that not all of us vote simply because there is a Black candidate on the ballot. Since Emanuel won that last election, is it being said that the Jewish or White votes had their acts together?

And on the second bullet, mainstream Republicans beat the Tea Party because they shifted at least as far or farther right as the Tea Party, something that doesn't necessarily work here but especially not in northeast Illinois where a majority of the state's population and therefore more of the votes so your insinuation that I was calling Kirk right wing falls on its face. My point is Rauner is probably still going to need conservative votes, but he'll have to balance sounding conservative enough against not coming of as too right wing. I actually like Kirk and he's popular because he knows how to talk to conservatives without turning off votes of more moderate or slightly left of center views like myself.

[Busjack]

On the first bullet point, I still read that as Black residents going with a candidate they felt was best for the job as there are Black residents such as myself who did not vote for either three and put their vote in for someone else (and in my case no that wasn't for that egomaniac Emanuel). So again the news media and the others need to get that not all of us vote simply because there is a Black candidate on the ballot. Since Emanuel won that last election, is it being said that the Jewish or White votes had their acts together?

And on the second bullet, mainstream Republicans beat the Tea Party because they shifted at least as far or farther right as the Tea Party, something that doesn't necessarily work here but especially not in northeast Illinois where a majority of the state's population and therefore more of the votes so your insinuation that I was calling Kirk right wing falls on its face. My point is Rauner is probably still going to need conservative votes, but he'll have to balance sounding conservative enough against not coming of as too right wing. I actually like Kirk and he's popular because he knows how to talk to conservatives without turning off votes of more moderate or slightly left of center views like myself.

Whether certain demographic groups vote together or not, you still haven't said why they can't get their vote together, nor why 18% decided to cross over to vote for Rahm (Chico only won on the southwest side, and DeValle in Logan Square).

I also think you misread the result of Tuesday's primary. Also, it seems quite clear that Rauner is running only on economic and governance issues. Brady barely lost to Quinn last time when Brady was running on the social issues, and basically because he couldn't get women's votes in DuPage County. Rauner doesn't seem to be making that mistake.

In any event, you still haven't explained why no Black candidate since Harold Washington has received sufficient support from wherever, nor who is going to be Rahm's challenger, even if he is doing the his best to [euphemism to infuriate] various voter groups.

[jajuan]

Whether certain demographic groups vote together or not, you still haven't said why they can't get their vote together, nor why 18% decided to cross over to vote for Rahm (Chico only won on the southwest side, and DeValle in Logan Square).

I also think you misread the result of Tuesday's primary. Also, it seems quite clear that Rauner is running only on economic and governance issues. Brady barely lost to Quinn last time when Brady was running on the social issues, and basically because he couldn't get women's votes in DuPage County. Rauner doesn't seem to be making that mistake.

In any event, you still haven't explained why no Black candidate since Harold Washington has received sufficient support from wherever, nor who is going to be Rahm's challenger, even if he is doing the his best to [euphemism to infuriate] various voter groups.

I don't feel I have to explain any such thing because I'm not one who votes simply because any one particular candidate is Black. When I go into that voting booth, you've earned my vote if you've shown me credible evidence that you're going to work toward my concerns about economic health and opportunities of the city as a whole, will make a credible effort of working on the quality of schools by actually showing me you got a plan to hold bad teachers, and in some cases bad principals, accountable without making those teachers who actually do care and work their butts off for the city's kids feel like they're getting punished and paying the price for their more lackluster associates' shortcomings, and can show you have ideas for how to push back against crime in the city as well as show me you take seriously that one of the most basic ways you start out on that front is by reinforcing the idea that the police work more effectively when they have a will and ability to earn and maintain the trust of each of the communities they serve. Those are the things that get my vote whether the candidate is Black, White, Latino or whichever over ethnicity may be represented in this good city, and not simply because you are a fellow Black resident or know how to fool the local media by putting forth the optical illusion you have legitimate concerns about what's happening in predominantly Black neighborhoods in the city. But if you wish to play that nonsensical game, do be my guest. Unless you want to say Daley and now Emanuel have been behind the mayor's desk for a collective 25 years approximately because White voters have had their act together for that quarter century which is also a nonsensical statement. And I don't think I misinterpreted Tuesday's primaries in light of the fact that national Republicans have in fact shifted more to the right they were under George W Bush even if a lot of folks want to gloss over that detail. Or did House Speaker John Boehner get it wrong, or was even worse lying, when he made the statement that there is no distinction between the Republican Party nationally or the Tea Party? And my point still stands that Rauner will be smart to continue talking to the state's more conservative voters in a manner that doesn't smack right wing, which I do believe was my original point, and I'll agree he's found that balance by sticking to economic and business issues and steering clear of the social issue trap his counterparts in other states run the risk of falling into even if they are among those candidates who beat a Tea Party candidate.

[Busjack]

....When I go into that voting booth, you've earned my vote if you've shown me credible evidence that you're going to work toward my concerns about economic health and opportunities of the city as a whole, will make a credible effort of working on the quality of schools by actually showing me ....

But when you get down to it, you still haven't shown me what the alternative to Emanuel is. It is all fine and dandy that you vote those principles, but what does it leave you if the choice turns out to be Emanuel, Shaw or Fioretti? Sitting home, I'm sure, which is fine and dandy with Emanuel.

That's all I was saying. Show me any block of votes that can oppose him through a viable candidate (and especially, one who isn't worse).

At least we knew before Daley announced his abdication that Emanuel was chomping at the bit.

[jajuan]

But when you get down to it, you still haven't shown me what the alternative to Emanuel is. It is all fine and dandy that you vote those principles, but what does it leave you if the choice turns out to be Emanuel, Shaw or Fioretti? Sitting home, I'm sure, which is fine and dandy with Emanuel.

That's all I was saying. Show me any block of votes that can oppose him through a viable candidate (and especially, one who isn't worse).

At least we knew before Daley announced his abdication that Emanuel was chomping at the bit.

How about you show an alternative to Emanuel if you're so freaking gun-ho about alternatives. Quite frankly, it's not my job to come up with an alternative. It's the job of whomever decides to run against the guy. All I'm saying is pigeonholing an entire group in determining if the egomaniac wins or loses does not work and isn't fruitful at all.

[artthouwill]

The problem is that history has shown that so-called minority groups tend to vote in blocs. In other words, an overwhelming majority of people in a given "minority" will vote for one candidate or one party consistently. That is how we come up with the Black vote or the Hispanic vote. Though Jajuan and myself vote for individuals based on how their principles line up with ours,sadly there are lots of people who don't look at content of character like they should.

As to Rahmbo, Toni Preckwinkle could be a viable candidate, but the media sometimes tells people who is viable and who isn't. The media has a lot to do with election outcomes and if the media says Rahm is unbeatable, chances are he will win again.

[Busjack]

The problem is that history has shown that so-called minority groups tend to vote in blocs. In other words, an overwhelming majority of people in a given "minority" will vote for one candidate or one party consistently. That is how we come up with the Black vote or the Hispanic vote. Though Jajuan and myself vote for individuals based on how their principles line up with ours,sadly there are lots of people who don't look at content of character like they should.

As to Rahmbo, Toni Preckwinkle could be a viable candidate, but the media sometimes tells people who is viable and who isn't. The media has a lot to do with election outcomes and if the media says Rahm is unbeatable, chances are he will win again.

As I tried to point out, I was not saying that members of demographic groups vote alike, but that candidates from certain demographic groups can't get sufficient backing to be viable. Somehow, the Polish let the Irish rule them in this city, for instance. As I pointed out, the last Black candidate to get the necessary amount (which then was 34%) was Harold Washington, and those like Meeks and Davis are in and out of a lot of races without sticking to any of them (i.e. Meeks for Governor and Davis for County Board President).

On your last point, the Sun-Times was trying to make the opposite point--because Rahmbo was polling only 27% he was vulnerable. My point was that that was meaningless unless there was an actual candidate that (at least in the runoff) could get 51%, and the 2011 election didn't get to that point.

Anyway, a 27% poll isn't that bad; it took about 12% to get rid of Ryan and Todd Stroger, and not even 12% could get rid of Blago; we needed the U.S. Attorney to do that (although maybe the 12% gave Blago the idea to cash out).

[jajuan]

As I tried to point out, I was not saying that members of demographic groups vote alike, but that candidates from certain demographic groups can't get sufficient backing to be viable. Somehow, the Polish let the Irish rule them in this city, for instance. As I pointed out, the last Black candidate to get the necessary amount (which then was 34%) was Harold Washington, and those like Meeks and Davis are in and out of a lot of races without sticking to any of them (i.e. Meeks for Governor and Davis for County Board President).

On your last point, the Sun-Times was trying to make the opposite point--because Rahmbo was polling only 27% he was vulnerable. My point was that that was meaningless unless there was an actual candidate that (at least in the runoff) could get 51%, and the 2011 election didn't get to that point.

Anyway, a 27% poll isn't that bad; it took about 12% to get rid of Ryan and Todd Stroger, and not even 12% could get rid of Blago; we needed the U.S. Attorney to do that (although maybe the 12% gave Blago the idea to cash out).

So true on Blago. And the interesting thing is there were supposedly whispers about him before the US Attorney got to him, assisted by the general assembly of course since they removed him before the feds did the rest.

[Busjack]

So true on Blago. And the interesting thing is there were supposedly whispers about him before the US Attorney got to him, assisted by the general assembly of course since they removed him before the feds did the rest.

Before the "selling the Senate seat" charges, there were reports that Blago was going to be indicted for the Rezko-Levine stuff, and my impression was that Fitzgerald had only until the end of the Bush Administration to do that. In fact, it was a bit surprising that the reason Fitzgerald acted when he did was essentially the new conspiracy to sell the Senate seat.

The General Assembly did not move to impeach until after Blago was arrested. In fact the main piece of evidence (if you could call it that) before the State Senate was calling in the FBI agent who signed the affidavit in support of the arrest warrant to answer "paragraph -- says ---. Is that true?" "Yes."

A couple of months before that (I guess about August 2008), there were the usual political columns asking Blago if he would run again [presumably in 2010] based on the low approval numbers, to which the response then was yes.

[jajuan]

Before the "selling the Senate seat" charges, there were reports that Blago was going to be indicted for the Rezko-Levine stuff, and my impression was that Fitzgerald had only until the end of the Bush Administration to do that. In fact, it was a bit surprising that the reason Fitzgerald acted when he did was essentially the new conspiracy to sell the Senate seat.

The General Assembly did not move to impeach until after Blago was arrested. In fact the main piece of evidence (if you could call it that) before the State Senate was calling in the FBI agent who signed the affidavit in support of the arrest warrant to answer "paragraph -- says ---. Is that true?" "Yes."

A couple of months before that (I guess about August 2008), there were the usual political columns asking Blago if he would run again [presumably in 2010] based on the low approval numbers, to which the response then was yes.

You misunderstood my point about the general assembly. I referring to them removing him from office after his arrest but still before his actual criminal trial the first time around which resulted in conviction on just one or two charges, before the feds redid his trial and got him on most of the counts that second time around.

[Busjack]

You misunderstood my point about the general assembly. I referring to them removing him from office after his arrest but still before his actual criminal trial the first time around which resulted in conviction on just one or two charges, before the feds redid his trial and got him on most of the counts that second time around.

O.K. but the arrest is what gave the General Assembly the impetus for the impeachment trial. There was not any requirement that he be convicted in federal court before being removed from office on impeachment.

[jajuan]

O.K. but the arrest is what gave the General Assembly the impetus for the impeachment trial. There was not any requirement that he be convicted in federal court before being removed from office on impeachment.

Oh no, I wasn't saying that. I was just making the point that it wasn't the feds alone that got Blago out of office as you originally appeared to be stating and that state constitutional law, by way of even bringing forward impeachment charges to begin with to handle the political crisis stirred up by his arrest, still helped get him out of office because of the fact that he wasn't yet convicted of any criminal charges.

[Busjack]

Oh no, I wasn't saying that. I was just making the point that it wasn't the feds alone that got Blago out of office as you originally appeared to be stating and that state constitutional law, by way of even bringing forward impeachment charges to begin with to handle the political crisis stirred up by his arrest, still helped get him out of office because of the fact that he wasn't yet convicted of any criminal charges.

Only relevant to the extent that only the State Senate could remove him. I suppose that if there weren't the necessary votes on the floor of the Senate (sort of like there weren't the votes in the U.S. Senate to remove Clinton after he was impeached), Blago could have ruled while out on bail, or even from his jail cell. He was able to appoint Burris during the time before he was removed.

But I'm also convinced that the General Assembly would not have acted unless he was arrested. The Articles of Impeachment, besides listing various plots to trade official acts for favors, listed various unconstitutional acts with regard to medical assistance programs and the flu vaccine fiasco, but as Blago pointed out, the legislature didn't find any need to deal with those problems when they occurred.

[jajuan]

Only relevant to the extent that only the State Senate could remove him. I suppose that if there weren't the necessary votes on the floor of the Senate (sort of like there weren't the votes in the U.S. Senate to remove Clinton after he was impeached), Blago could have ruled while out on bail, or even from his jail cell. He was able to appoint Burris during the time before he was removed.

But I'm also convinced that the General Assembly would not have acted unless he was arrested. The Articles of Impeachment, besides listing various plots to trade official acts for favors, listed various unconstitutional acts with regard to medical assistance programs and the flu vaccine fiasco, but as Blago pointed out, the legislature didn't find any need to deal with those problems when they occurred.

Ok ok. Jack I got your overall point, two or three posts ago. Once again my only point was it wasn't the feds alone that got him out of office as your original "it took the US Attorney to get Blago out of office" comment implies. Regardless of whether they would have moved without the arrest by the feds or not, General Assembly still acted and assisted the feds in getting the creep out by way of the state House drafting those Articles of Impeachment and the Senate holding an impeachment trial and having enough votes to convict and remove him from office. They at least had more cover strictly on the face value of it than the US House did about 20 years ago about it not being entirely politics in the respective moves to impeach from the standpoint of both chambers of the Illinois Assembly being controlled by Blago's own political party when the Illinois House moved to impeach and the Illinois Senate voting to convict on the presented impeachment charges, oust him from the governorship and ban him from holding any future offices on behalf of Illinois. While on the other hand, the Republican controlled US House at the time made Monica Lewinsky the center of their impeachment case against Clinton when they decided to draft Articles of Impeachment based mainly around the points that he lied in official investigations about his relationship and interactions with Lewinsky. His fellow Democrats were in turn able to argue to the public with little effort that the Republicans impeaching and trying to remove to remove from office the President of the United States ultimately for having an affair and therefore were trying to unduly reverse a legitimate election result from that same public, abusing their constitutional powers and responsibilities, and wasting the taxpayers' time and money in light of the initial investigation beginning with the Clintons' past with Whitewater but expanding by leaps and bounds and ending quite remarkably many years later with the House for whatever odd reasons deciding to zero in on the Lewinsky issue.

[Busjack]

I think we have gotten pretty far from the basic point of this topic that the Sun-Times indicated that Rahm was toast at 27%, while it takes 12% to get someone out of there, including Blago if one gets any inference that is why he entered into all his plots to sell his services for "retirement money," presumably to be withdrawn from his campaign fund.