2016 Pace budget

[Busjack]

Daily Herald article on the proposed 2016 budget, although nothing is yet up on the Pace site. Preliminary indications are that they want to go CTA with an extra 25 cents for cash fares (maybe they could do a better job with suburban vending locations, or, as the article indicates, think that the app that should have been out by now is the panacea), the repeated reference to 75 buses, and pointing out the effect of "off the top" for paratransit.

[Busjack]

Press Release on which the Daily Herald article was apparently based. No budget book until October, which is consistent with the creation of the 2015 budget topic.

[BusHunter]

The bus purchasing is really confusing, they had the 43 in the 2014 budget, 156 in the '15 budget and now 75 in the '16 budget. So far I haven't seen the 91 CNG's for south. I think though regardless, by next year NW won't have orions anymore and if they ever get the 91 CNG's for south that would send NABI's to SW and west. But with these 75 it sounds like they would be going into retiring the NABI's. The 75 may have more to do with fleet expansion, but do they have garage space? They will need some buses for Pulse and for the I-90 corridor. They could put a few buses at river if they had the space or they would just have to go to NW.

[Busjack]

The bus purchasing is really confusing, they had the 43 in the 2014 budget, 156 in the '15 budget and now 75 in the '16 budget. So far I haven't seen the 91 CNG's for south. I think though regardless, by next year NW won't have orions anymore and if they ever get the 91 CNG's for south that would send NABI's to SW and west. But with these 75 it sounds like they would be going into retiring the NABI's. The 75 may have more to do with fleet expansion, but do they have garage space? They will need some buses for Pulse and for the I-90 corridor. They could put a few buses at river if they had the space or they would just have to go to NW.

Problem is that the number of buses on the street hasn't corresponded to any budget figure for at least 5 years. A couple of years ago, they did mention the MCIs, but, for instance, didn't recently mention the 9 just added, which is part of the same budget item.

Apparently you added together the 2014 budget for the CNGs, as the only thing in the 2015 budget is:

75 fixed route buses ($32.750 million): Project funds a total of 75 buses including seven replacement trolley buses and some minor expansion buses (page 36).

I said "75 again," because the 5 year capital plan (page 44) said

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
75    27   25   33   36

Somehow 27 became 75.

The schedule for the CNGs still seems to be to start somewhere around Thanksgiving (talking the original solicitation calling for June, 2014, but the award being delayed by 18 months).The contract for construction work at the garage has been awarded.

I would tend to agree with you that with the number of 6400s Andre said he saw at South Holland, plus the 91 CNGs, that should take care of the Orion VIs. One would also have to ask how many for 2016 are for the I-90 project (presumably CMAQ).

[Busjack]

....

I would tend to agree with you that with the number of 6400s Andre said he saw at South Holland, plus the 91 CNGs, that should take care of the Orion VIs. One would also have to ask how many for 2016 are for the I-90 project (presumably CMAQ).

Probably have to rerun the numbers given the sightings of 6481-2 yesterday.  It looks like between approximately Dec. 2014 and July 2016, Pace is going to receive 180 new buses (91 CNGs announced). Can't tell how many it eventually will be, but the Orion VIs should be gone by then, and maybe the CNGs bite into the 2003 NABIs at South. Then these 75 buses should take out a good number of them (although there are 183 of them, considering the 99 40 foot ones and 84 35 foot ones).

[Busjack]

Budget book is now available.

The first Chairman's comment confirms something we figured out "Furthermore, all new fixed route buses purchased during 2016 will be equipped with Wi-Fi for the convenience and productivity of our  customers while traveling on Pace."

Of the 75 budgeted buses, 3 are for I-55 expansion, rest for replacement.

Paratransits will be gasoline powered, because they can't get a diesel chassis (page 36).

The city ADA capital plan is essentially fiction, based on if any money is allocated, but none is.

Official number of Orion VIs is 119 down from 160.

35 foot NABIs are down 7 to 77.

1 2005 NABI is off the list.

36 of 6400+ are on that list, so at least 48 not yet accounted for. The 77 listed for 2013 would be 6323-6399.

 

[andrethebusman]

Here is what can be figured out from PACE's fleet inventory:

 

2013 EDN's are 6323-6399

2014 MCI's are 6950-6962

2015 EDN's are 6400-6412, 6414-6437

2016 EDN's should be 6438-6503, however, there are CNG's included in this number apparently (15500's), so this is a big open question. One has to wonder if 15500 is the next one after 6499??

Paratransits -

2014 25-footers are 14001-14157 (note 14013,14113 both exist)

2014 22-footers (not 25-foot as they say) 14200-14297 (again note 14213 exists)

Note that the "budget year" and "build year" do not exactly match. For instance, 15500 has been around since last year, but apparently is a "2015" acquisition.

In sum, PACE must have a different person doing the number assigning now who didn't understand (or didn't care) how the previous one did it.

[Busjack]

Here is what can be figured out from PACE's fleet inventory:

 

2013 EDN's are 6323-6399

...

Corresponds to the budget book. However, the announcement of the base order was 69 buses, of which 54 were transits and 15 were express. 6392-6399 came much later, about Nov. 2013 (discussion starts here), compared to that the base order started deliveries about Nov. 2012 (discussion starts here).

As I've frequently noted, it is impossible to correlate a budget with deliveries (the CNGs were in the 2013 budget). Maybe buses are like cars and the model year starts in a different month than the calendar or fiscal year.

[andrethebusman]

 

As I've frequently noted, it is impossible to correlate a budget with deliveries (the CNGs were in the 2013 budget). Maybe buses are like cars and the model year starts in a different month than the calendar or fiscal year.

It varies from builder to builder. New Flyer appears to change year code at New Year's, GM in the RTS days changed in September. Also remember that year code is when construction starts, not completed, so a bus delivered in January (and possibly even February) might still be from the previous year by VIN.

[Busjack]

It varies from builder to builder. New Flyer appears to change year code at New Year's, GM in the RTS days changed in September. Also remember that year code is when construction starts, not completed, so a bus delivered in January (and possibly even February) might still be from the previous year by VIN.

But, in this case, we are dealing with buses labelled as 2013, many of which were on the street in 2012. Then buses delivered a year later are still supposedly 2013.

FWIW, 2014 budget (Oct 2013) says 69; 2015 (Oct 2014) says 77 in the "Active Fleet" section.

Edited October 16, 2015 by Busjack

[BusHunter]

Yeah, the bus purchasing is really confusing. I learned a few things myself about Pace's future plans. 220 40 foot buses are slated for the 5 year period between 2016 - 2020, so if that doesn't include the CNG's for south, then they are looking at Axess' up to #6620 at least. That should easily replace the sw buses and most of the older Nabi's up to the #6262's. The south CNG construction is actively under construction, so buses should appear there soon, most likely under the pre 2016 budget plan.

Learning more about the I-90 corridor plan all I can say is man that is going to be something. They plan to go all the way to Elgin, add two more routes, include stops at Randall, Barrington and Il-25 and the NW transit center. This is really going to start to compete with Metra's Milwaukee west line which goes virtually the same place but will be more expensive. One thing I noticed with I-dot is that it looks like the NW tollway is going to 4 lanes in each direction. If so, the Kennedy's 3 lanes west of the Edens junction is going to prove to be a strangler. It might actually be smarter to take a BOS and transfer to the "L" to go downtown.

Pulse seems to be moving on down the line, they seem to be going after Dempster in earnest, so that will most likely be the 2nd corridor. Studies are already underway on Cermak and North Ave to York road, so one of them will probably be next. They are applying for studies on Harlem and S.Halsted, so those look to be next after that. They are starting to get an impressive network going, I think they are going to surpass CTA on this, which is basically a dog chasing it's tail, especially with the Ashland corridor. It's good for Pace to deeply expand Pulse and do expressway BRT projects like the I-90 corridor, this is going to get them many riders. It shows with the I-55 corridor, they are expanding the Bolingbrook Park N' ride station and ordering even more OTR buses. BOS shoulder has been expanded on I-55 to the Dan Ryan now. I'm hearing really good things come out of Pace, this has the potential to be really successful.  

Edited October 16, 2015 by BusHunter

[Busjack]

Yeah, the bus purchasing is really confusing. I learned a few things myself about Pace's future plans. 220 40 foot buses are slated for the 5 year period between 2016 - 2020, so if that doesn't include the CNG's for south, then they are looking at Axess' up to #6620 at least. That should easily replace the sw buses and most of the older Nabi's up to the #6262's. The south CNG construction is actively under construction, so buses should appear there soon, most likely under the pre 2016 budget plan.

Learning more about the I-90 corridor plan all I can say is man that is going to be something. They plan to go all the way to Elgin, add two more routes, include stops at Randall, Barrington and Il-25 and the NW transit center. This is really going to start to compete with Metra's Milwaukee west line which goes virtually the same place but will be more expensive. One thing I noticed with I-dot is that it looks like the NW tollway is going to 4 lanes in each direction. If so, the Kennedy's 3 lanes west of the Edens junction is going to prove to be a strangler. It might actually be smarter to take a BOS and transfer to the "L" to go downtown.

Pulse seems to be moving on down the line, they seem to be going after Dempster in earnest, so that will most likely be the 2nd corridor. Studies are already underway on Cermak and North Ave to York road, so one of them will probably be next. They are applying for studies on Harlem and S.Halsted, so those look to be next after that. They are starting to get an impressive network going, I think they are going to surpass CTA on this, which is basically a dog chasing it's tail, especially with the Ashland corridor. It's good for Pace to deeply expand Pulse and do expressway BRT projects like the I-90 corridor, this is going to get them many riders. It shows with the I-55 corridor, they are expanding the Bolingbrook Park N' ride station and ordering even more OTR buses. BOS shoulder as been expanded on I-55 to the Dan Ryan now. I'm hearing really good things come out of Pace, this has the potential to be really successful.  

It is hard to tell how the math works, in that we don't know how far the "2015 diesels" go. Let's assume that the unaccounted 6400s knock the Orion VI count to 70, which means that at least 20 2003 NABIs hit the dust with the receipt of 91 CNGs. There are 173  2003 NABIs left, which leaves enough in the budget to retire 47 2005 NABIs out of 59, which is close enough for horseshoes.

On the I-90 plan, while the details of that have been released before, what appears somewhat new in the budget is the part for the construction period (bidirectional 600 and 610) has been implemented; the new stuff, including the Randall Road service and the NWTC feeders are for when construction is completed (page 1; 7 of the pdf).

The other interesting (but not decisive) things are that the Chairman's Letter refers to "We are also moving forward with the conversion of our South Division facility in Markham to operate compressed natural gas (CNG) buses, a move expected to save, conservatively, $1 million in fuel costs annually and even more in the future as we either retrofit or build new garage facilities to operate CNG powered buses." One would think that would include NW, except that they are now loading it with diesel buses,and the Pulse drawing also indicates a diesel bus. The bond discussion also mentions just getting around to issuing bonds to acquire land for the NW garage, which again makes one wonder what the deal was with the motion to acquire the 750-800 property, which they didn't.

Finally, if Pulse is supposed to kick off in early 2017, the grant for those buses (I assume 10) should be in this budget.

[Busjack]

Having finally made the connection that the Pace Public Hearing Comment page was available, I posted questions relating to the capital plan for buses and the status of the NW garage. I'll let you know if I get a response.

[BusHunter]

Having finally made the connection that the Pace Public Hearing Comment page was available, I posted questions relating to the capital plan for buses and the status of the NW garage. I'll let you know if I get a response.

Is there any plans for expansion of the existing facility? They are going to have the Pulse 10-15 buses in about 18 months and potentially another 10-15 more when the Dempster Pulse gets going in maybe another two years or 2019. Then they have the two I-90 bus routes coming and they already took on some or most of the #600 routes out of that same corridor. Plus they have buses running on the #423 which used to be strictly NS. Seems to me they might be crowding themselves out and with no building to move to, they might be relying on a hail mary pass from NS. They were slated to expand NS. I don't know if this would have something to do with it, but they probably don't like the deadhead miles between Harlem Blue line and NS. 

[Busjack]

Is there any plans for expansion of the existing facility? They are going to have the Pulse 10-15 buses in about 18 months and potentially another 10-15 more when the Dempster Pulse gets going in maybe another two years or 2019. Then they have the two I-90 bus routes coming and they already took on some or most of the #600 routes out of that same corridor. Plus they have buses running on the #423 which used to be strictly NS. Seems to me they might be crowding themselves out and with no building to move to, they might be relying on a hail mary pass from NS. They were slated to expand NS. I don't know if this would have something to do with it, but they probably don't like the deadhead miles between Harlem Blue line and NS. 

Again since I gave you the lead, you'll have to ask yourself. However, it does not seem to make sense to expand the existing facility if they are moving out, even though they have buses parked on the driveway and the like.

However, you forgot that the current 423 is a combination of 423 and 228, and 228 was a NW route. Similarly, 422 past Old Orchard was 212, which was a NW route, and 210 had a NS bus added, all as a result of the 2005 NS restructuring. So, the effect is that NW is down a couple of buses, but that certainly is marginal. Similarly, most, but not all, 270 buses will be replaced by Milwaukee Pulse buses.

Edited October 18, 2015 by Busjack

[BusHunter]

Again since I gave you the lead, you'll have to ask yourself. However, it does not seem to make sense to expand the existing facility if they are moving out, even though they have buses parked on the driveway and the like.

However, you forgot that the current 423 is a combination of 423 and 228, and 228 was a NW route. Similarly, 422 past Old Orchard was 212, which was a NW route, and 210 had a NS bus added, all as a result of the 2005 NS restructuring. So, the effect is that NW is down a couple of buses, but that certainly is marginal. Similarly, most, but not all, 270 buses will be replaced by Milwaukee Pulse buses.

It would be a simple expansion if there was one, like an expansion of the parking facilities or outdoor bus storage. As far as #270 the local service is staying put, but they might be able to trim it down by a few buses, still they would gain buses. I'm surprised they just don't let river take over the prairie stone route, that's getting kind of far out for nw service. I don't know, maybe river could take the I-90 routes that go to Elgin, seems kind of dumb to have nw buses going there, when the garage is down the street in Elgin, but that garage is probably way smaller than NW.

[Busjack]

..., but that garage is probably way smaller than NW.

River is listed as 63,000 sq. ft, but it does have yard space (I remember a whole bunch of 2000s sitting in the yard just after the 6600s arrived). Some space should have been freed by converting local service to 30 foot buses, but then it got some of the Academy and 610 work. I'm estimating it has 47 buses.

On the other hand, NW is listed at 82,000,  but I would guess has 2-1/2 times the buses. The fleet must be about the same size as W, which has a 221,000 sq. ft. garage.

The biggest mystery to me is how Heritage stores its fleet (55 buses, including 30 OTRs). Only 55,000 sq.ft.and virtually no yard.

On outside storage,I would say next door, except they don't own it. Maybe they have to lease some other vacant industrial lot in Des Plaines.

 

[BusHunter]

I've never seen river, but i'm imagining it's like ns which basically has the same fleet total. 82,000 ft is tight for nw. Heritage may have 55,000 but it has alot of 30 foot buses. NW has alot of the bigger buses really they need something like what west has. Seems out of all of those the one with the greatest space in comparison to what's garaged there seems to be river.

Edited October 19, 2015 by BusHunter

[artthouwill]

River is listed as 63,000 sq. ft, but it does have yard space (I remember a whole bunch of 2000s sitting in the yard just after the 6600s arrived). Some space should have been freed by converting local service to 30 foot buses, but then it got some of the Academy and 610 work. I'm estimating it has 47 buses.

On the other hand, NW is listed at 82,000,  but I would guess has 2-1/2 times the buses. The fleet must be about the same size as W, which has a 221,000 sq. ft. garage.

The biggest mystery to me is how Heritage stores its fleet (55 buses, including 30 OTRs). Only 55,000 sq.ft.and virtually no yard.

On outside storage,I would say next door, except they don't own it. Maybe they have to lease some other vacant industrial lot in Des Plaines.

 

Based on the picture of the Heritage garage that I saw,  it would seem easy to fit those buses inside the garage.  The 30 OTRs could be put on one wall lined perpendicular with the 30 ft buses parked in two rows facing a garage door, with one of those rows on the opposite wall.  That would give the OTRs space enough to maneuver out, OR the reverse could happen since the OTRs  would more than likely be the first buses to leave the garage.  Just line them up in the order in which they would depart.