Return of the 11 & 31 Bus

[Juniorz]

3 hours ago, jajuan said:

Chicago Trib article from December 14th has comments from residents and workers that confirm part of my prior comment that for some north siders that use the 11 probably look at the route as structured as a Catch-22 situation. I appeared to be correct that the service hours of the extension, specifically the 10 AM start time and thus lack of morning rush service, are counterproductive to many of those folks needs, but hope the extension benefits from the second chance from the extended six months added to the experiment by gaining the ridership needed for the extension to stay alive. Yet CTA structured it that way because of limited available money

Here's the thing with this.

You have an 180-day pilot (which was just extended into the 2Q of 2017) that you have rallied for since Fall 2012. You begin to see the pilot failing and now blame the possible failure based on the set hours that are given because it doesn't tailor to residents needs, but yet these are the same residents that pleaded and cried for Years! to have the service back in any capacity!

Throw bleach in my eyes! These are excuses, if residents (and NOW! businesses) wanted the route segment to succeed (which should have already happened given the nature of support that was rallied) they would have took their loses and supported the route regardless of the set hours. 

Strangely, there is a similar pilot with the same service structure with a route that was discontinued almost 2 decades ago with the same group of supporters going out to support and the route is unofficially succeeding!

These are excuses that should have been results instead of complaints because come June, a year worth of statistics will be given, a decision will be made and once that decision is given, there should be no more out cry regarding to the decision because the results will now be given.

[Busjack]

8 hours ago, Juniorz said:

Strangely, there is a similar pilot with the same service structure with a route that was discontinued almost 2 decades ago with the same group of supporters going out to support and the route is unofficially succeeding!

These are excuses that should have been results instead of complaints because come June, a year worth of statistics will be given, a decision will be made and once that decision is given, there should be no more out cry regarding to the decision because the results will now be given.

You are correct on these, in that before 31 started up, those complaining to the papers said it was destined to fail, but it seems to be meeting targets, while on 11 they said all sorts of people lost service, but when the rubber meets the road, maybe 1/3 of the needed number are riding the bus.

 

Newspapers, though, are mainly for complainers. If you think this is bad, look at any coverage in a suburban paper of a plan commission meeting when anyone proposes to build anything.

[BusHunter]

Depends on what type of rider is using the service. If it's the working class by the #11's late startup time people are mostly already at work. If seniors are riding the #31 then that will spike ridership. But it's funny what is on 31st? The police station at halsted??? (Could ride the #8) shopping at Ashland??? Now I might have to go over there and see just where is the draw. Its been awhile since I was on #35 east of state. Possibly the #31 is drawing off the bronzeville area. They do have high rises over there. Wasn't #35th cut back to michigan? I remember the king drive area did rather well when it went to Mercy hospital. Time to check this out.

[Busjack]

4 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

If it's the working class by the #11's late startup time people are mostly already at work. If seniors are riding the #31 then that will spike ridership.

Those going downtown are better served by the L. The marketing materials that @Juniorz posted at the top of the thread assumed yuppies were the marginal discretionary riders to be attracted, but maybe they need to work during the day, too.

8 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Wasn't #35th cut back to michigan?

No, it goes to Cottage, and to the beach in summer.

8 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Possibly the #31 is drawing off the bronzeville area. They do have high rises over there.

Maybe someone gets on at 31st and King Dr. but it was requested by the 11th Ward, which is Bridgeport. Chinatown is expanding in that direction.

[jajuan]

7 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Depends on what type of rider is using the service. If it's the working class by the #11's late startup time people are mostly already at work. If seniors are riding the #31 then that will spike ridership. But it's funny what is on 31st? The police station at halsted??? (Could ride the #8) shopping at Ashland??? Now I might have to go over there and see just where is the draw. Its been awhile since I was on #35 east of state. Possibly the #31 is drawing off the bronzeville area. They do have high rises over there. Wasn't #35th cut back to michigan? I remember the king drive area did rather well when it went to Mercy hospital. Time to check this out.

35th was cut back to Cottage Grove actually, near the Lake Meadows Shopping Center. But you are right though that it depends on what type of rider is using either service. Like I said most north siders are in that area are already at their morning destinations by 10 AM because they're either high schoolers, college students or traditional 9 to 5 workders. So as quoted by what people they did ask, perhaps 10 AM is too late a start for the 11 extension. But perhaps it could also made clearer that while the extension doesn't start till 10, the regular Howard to Brown Line service is operating in the morning rush. I mean it's easy to be cynical about this, but there is a real possibility that some are thinking that the entire route starts at 10 AM rather than just the extension since whenever the media does talk about the experiment on the 11, they almost always speak in terms of the route and not the extension, which the experiment is testing. 

[jajuan]

7 minutes ago, Busjack said:

Those going downtown are better served by the L. The marketing materials that @Juniorz posted at the top of the thread assumed yuppies were the marginal discretionary riders to be attracted, but maybe they need to work during the day, too.

No, it goes to Cottage, and to the beach in summer.

Maybe someone gets on at 31st and King Dr. but it was requested by the 11th Ward, which is Bridgeport. Chinatown is expanding in that direction.

The 31 also has the benefit of IIT to explain its doing better than some gave it credit before it even started, given that in its present form it runs on State Street past the heart of that campus. 

[Busjack]

9 minutes ago, jajuan said:

But perhaps it could also made clearer that while the extension doesn't start till 10, the regular Howard to Brown Line service is operating in the morning rush. I mean it's easy to be cynical about this, but there is a real possibility that some are thinking that the entire route starts at 10 AM rather than just the extension since whenever the media does talk about the experiment on the 11, they almost always speak in terms of the route and not the extension, which the experiment is testing. 

Not sure who the "some" are, as those who were riding it north of the Brown Line before knew it was there.

Maybe more significant, is that the part prior to the extension, i.e. north of the Brown Line, was averaging about 1600 riders a day, and there is nothing along it other than Tony's, and the Jewel-Target shopping center in Evanston, and residential only on the east side of Kedzie. Again, the Brown Line to Fullerton stretch is supposed to pull about as much, but so far hasn't.

[Busjack]

BTW, the Oct. 2016 Ridership Report is up, and confirms this:

2015: 1701

2016: 2039

In short, about 340 net gain due to the extension.

[Juniorz]

You can't complain if you don't use and i see no reason to complain about the pilot service being delivered. These pilots are giving very 2016 presidential results (no pun intended). 

You can't say, oh one route has establishments that are ridership generators as an excuse for it's unexpected ridership surge. If you want one or both to succeed, support the routes during the service hours that are given to receive better expanded service when it's evaluation is up for discussion again in 2017.    

[Busjack]

37 minutes ago, Juniorz said:

You can't say, oh one route has establishments that are ridership generators as an excuse for it's unexpected ridership surge. If you want one or both to succeed, support the routes during the service hours that are given to receive better expanded service when it's evaluation is up for discussion again in 2017.    

However, this isn't a popularity contest or even the Santa Bus. Just as the Whole Foods in Englewood isn't going to make it if people show up for a couple of weeks only as a "show of support," 11 isn't going to make it if approx. 1500 people a day don't have a real reason to ride it on a sustained basis.

As I've mentioned several times (such as in connection with the Gray Line and Pace 604) if market research wasn't done to identify a market, it isn't going to work, although, in the 11 and 31 cases, the experiments are the research.

[jajuan]

On 12/30/2016 at 11:47 AM, Busjack said:

Not sure who the "some" are, as those who were riding it north of the Brown Line before knew it was there.

Maybe more significant, is that the part prior to the extension, i.e. north of the Brown Line, was averaging about 1600 riders a day, and there is nothing along it other than Tony's, and the Jewel-Target shopping center in Evanston, and residential only on the east side of Kedzie. Again, the Brown Line to Fullerton stretch is supposed to pull about as much, but so far hasn't.

Some as in people who don't ride CTA on a regular basis, especially if they are new to areas served by the extension. It is entirely feasible. 

[jajuan]

On 12/30/2016 at 1:15 PM, Busjack said:

However, this isn't a popularity contest or even the Santa Bus. Just as the Whole Foods in Englewood isn't going to make it if people show up for a couple of weeks only as a "show of support," 11 isn't going to make it if approx. 1500 people a day don't have a real reason to ride it on a sustained basis.

As I've mentioned several times (such as in connection with the Gray Line and Pace 604) if market research wasn't done to identify a market, it isn't going to work, although, in the 11 and 31 cases, the experiments are the research.

And what we can all agree on is whatever it is that's going on with the 11, it appears so far the research done for the 11 is not holding up against that done for the 31. So I'll agree that it's too easy to just say, ride the bus if you want it to stay if you're not stressing real reasons to ride during the times that the buses are available just as the 2016 election result proved it's too easy to say why one shouldn't vote for your opponent, but it's still important to lay out to voters why they should vote for you to borrow again from that analogy. So basically if the 11 is showing the wrong types of riders were being targeted up to now, maybe it's time they focus on riders who actually could actually be available and focus more on them or tweak how they are doing so if they want the extension to survive. 

[Busjack]

2 hours ago, jajuan said:

So basically if the 11 is showing the wrong types of riders were being targeted up to now, maybe it's time they focus on riders who actually could actually be available and focus more on them or tweak how they are doing so if they want the extension to survive. 

That, though, goes to prospective marketing (although they have another 170 days to do that) as opposed to Pawar and crew having maintained since about 2012 that there was an existing group of seniors and disabled who depended on the bus.If, say, 900 of those a day existed, the marketing for the marginal discretionary riders (spa, bike repair, Trader Joe's, Paulina Market, buy flowers, not sure what BBQ) might have put it over the top, but not if there were only 150 a day.

Of course, you might be saying to market to seniors and the disabled "hey the bus is back," but I really don't see the CTA, as opposed to the aldermen or social service agencies, doing that.

[jajuan]

On 1/1/2017 at 5:47 PM, Busjack said:

That, though, goes to prospective marketing (although they have another 170 days to do that) as opposed to Pawar and crew having maintained since about 2012 that there was an existing group of seniors and disabled who depended on the bus.If, say, 900 of those a day existed, the marketing for the marginal discretionary riders (spa, bike repair, Trader Joe's, Paulina Market, buy flowers, not sure what BBQ) might have put it over the top, but not if there were only 150 a day.

Of course, you might be saying to market to seniors and the disabled "hey the bus is back," but I really don't see the CTA, as opposed to the aldermen or social service agencies, doing that.

No CTA wouldn't do it. That's true. But for CTA's part, I'd say that maybe they can do more clarification to any prospective riders who aren't regular riders that although the local news media speaks of the experiment in terms of route, it's the extension to Fullerton Red Line that starts about 10 in the morning, while the route that already existed to the Brown Line still starts at 7. It's true that it would be up to the alderman and local business leaders to stress to the community that the bus is back and available past the Brown Line starting at 10.

[Busjack]

13 hours ago, jajuan said:

, while the route that already existed to the Brown Line still starts at 7.

That doesn't seem to be the issue, as people north of the Brown Line know that, and if theoretically they are going from Lincoln and Peterson to Lincoln and Belmont, it isn't going to do them any good before about 9:40.

It appears that you are arguing that the marginal discretionary passenger, instead of going to the spa, is riding through the Brown Line station. Aside from ridership north of the Brown Line not being at issue, it gets back to when Andre said there were essentially 3 routes as far as the passenger characteristics were concerned (north of Brown Line, Brown Line to Fullerton,and Fullerton to downtown), but it appears that the middle portion isn't providing the necessary 1500 rides. And, based on the gps, CTA knows where passengers are boarding and alighting (even though that isn't indicated in the Ridership Report).

[jajuan]

7 hours ago, Busjack said:

That doesn't seem to be the issue, as people north of the Brown Line know that, and if theoretically they are going from Lincoln and Peterson to Lincoln and Belmont, it isn't going to do them any good before about 9:40.

It appears that you are arguing that the marginal discretionary passenger, instead of going to the spa, is riding through the Brown Line station. Aside from ridership north of the Brown Line not being at issue, it gets back to when Andre said there were essentially 3 routes as far as the passenger characteristics were concerned (north of Brown Line, Brown Line to Fullerton,and Fullerton to downtown), but it appears that the middle portion isn't providing the necessary 1500 rides. And, based on the gps, CTA knows where passengers are boarding and alighting (even though that isn't indicated in the Ridership Report).

I took a ride along Lincoln on the extension earlier this afternoon due to an errand, and one market occurred to me that it appears they might be missing or not doing as well a job trying to draw, and that's DePaul University students and the surrounding community of yuppies and their families. A lot of the focus for the 11 has been those on the northern portion who are already riding the bus trying to draw them further south. I was looking at all the different local shops and restaurants on Lincoln between Sheffield and the Jewel at Berteau that have atmospheres that would be welcoming and even popular with college age riders and the young urban professional types, and it dawned on me that maybe local leaders and business owners on Lincoln on that stretch should get together with CTA and extend their focus beyond the folks that are already riding the bus north of the Brown Line by making a go at those folks who attend or live near DePaul University much like the 31 may be benefiting from IIT students who want to check out Chinatown along with getting to the Mariano's located near the Ashland Orange Line station. They could emphasis to that potential market that there's a host of local shops and restaurants that might catch their eye that they could possibly get to easier on the 11 than they might do so on the Brown Line especially if they want to avoid the potential crowds on the Brown Line on weekdays. 

[Juniorz]

Regardless of what happens, the 11 extension is a bust, which is shocking given the 11 actually had everything stacked up for it to succeed.

[Busjack]

8 hours ago, Juniorz said:

Regardless of what happens, the 11 extension is a bust, which is shocking given the 11 actually had everything stacked up for it to succeed.

Except apparently passengers.

[Juniorz]

51 minutes ago, Busjack said:

Except apparently passengers.

Which better enjoy the next 5 months. I am still shocked by the 31's revival.

[TaylorTank1229]

2 hours ago, Juniorz said:

Which better enjoy the next 5 months. I am still shocked by the 31's revival.

Frankly even though I had hope for the 31st bus in the beginning of this, I actually had the feeling that between the 11 & 31, that the 31 would end up being the bust route, but now it seems like it the other way around as 31st is making better progress than Lincoln is. Either way, we got less than 2 months to see what's the fate of the 31st bus will be, and an extra 5 months for the Lincoln bus, which at this rate if it doesn't stack anymore passengers it's fate is already sealed.

[Busjack]

8 hours ago, TaylorTank1229 said:

Either way, we got less than 2 months to see what's the fate of the 31st bus will be

If history, including recent history is a guide, it probably will get another 180 days, or if close, will be made permanent.

[TaylorTank1229]

5 hours ago, Busjack said:

If history, including recent history is a guide, it probably will get another 180 days, or if close, will be made permanent.

They choose any of those, I would suggest changing the hours, have buses start between 6am-7am, and have buses run like every 20 minutes during rush hours (7am-9am and 4pm-6pm). They can still have it run every 30 minutes during other times of the day. I would say they could try doing a Saturday service pilot since it used to run Monday through Saturday before, but we should wait for this pilot to end and see how it played out.

[jajuan]

On 1/15/2017 at 2:58 PM, TaylorTank1229 said:

They choose any of those, I would suggest changing the hours, have buses start between 6am-7am, and have buses run like every 20 minutes during rush hours (7am-9am and 4pm-6pm). They can still have it run every 30 minutes during other times of the day. I would say they could try doing a Saturday service pilot since it used to run Monday through Saturday before, but we should wait for this pilot to end and see how it played out.

Well maybe if the 31's numbers hold, which so far patterns appear to show a strong possibility they will, they may be able to try expanding hours. They'd have to figure out how to pay for it though. You already acknowledge that they have to make it beyond the current test first before any plans or further expansion.  As for the 11, if the surrounding community near the extension were smart and if they truly want the extension to succeed then they'd be touting some of those shops and restaurants lining much of the southern end of the extension that I mentioned in my post above and try much harder to tap into that DePaul University community. Those shops and restaurants do tend draw that younger age student and yuppie demographic such as that that populates the DePaul area. Whether those folks that pushed for the 11 extension like it or not, it appears the biggest reason that the extension is surprisingly failing so badly is because they're placing so much of their efforts to trying to count on current riders of the Howard to Brown Line route to ride out from that stretch. Since that as we can all see is failing very badly, maybe they should be thinking of the test from the other way around, expanding beyond just the focus on the Howard to Brown Line base route trying to entice those riders out on to the extension, but instead focusing more on the extension itself and enticing riders to travel in to the general community along the extension with a much larger emphasis on tapping into that DePaul University community market much more than their current efforts or lack thereof from what I've seen. 

[Busjack]

2 hours ago, jajuan said:

Whether those folks that pushed for the 11 extension like it or not, it appears the biggest reason that the extension is surprisingly failing so badly is because they're placing so much of their efforts to trying to count on current riders of the Howard to Brown Line route to ride out from that stretch.

Again, I don't see how you come to that conclusion, especially since the marketing brochure didn't mention anything north of the Brown Line. I go back to where Andre said there was one route with 3 riderships. If people of the middle ridership aren't going to or coming from bus stops on the extension, it makes only a marginal difference if someone is riding through. Supposedly seniors needed both buses, but are apparently only patronizing 31.

Apparently your and CTA's theory is that there are enough people going from DePaul to the spa and the like during the midday (instead of going to class) to come up with 1300 riders a day. CTA may be putting money on that, but I'm not.More likely they are shopping at Whole Foods on Sheffield, or taking the 74 bus to somewhere near Elston.

 

[jajuan]

1 hour ago, Busjack said:

Again, I don't see how you come to that conclusion, especially since the marketing brochure didn't mention anything north of the Brown Line. I go back to where Andre said there was one route with 3 riderships. If people of the middle ridership aren't going to or coming from bus stops on the extension, it makes only a marginal difference if someone is riding through. Supposedly seniors needed both buses, but are apparently only patronizing 31.

Apparently your and CTA's theory is that there are enough people going from DePaul to the spa and the like during the midday (instead of going to class) to come up with 1300 riders a day. CTA may be putting money on that, but I'm not.More likely they are shopping at Whole Foods on Sheffield, or taking the 74 bus to somewhere near Elston.

 

Well for one thing my suggestion was directed to the community at large that wanted the extension, not the CTA. And obviously the focus mainly on seniors isn't working since we're seeing the extension fail miserably so far. The only way they're going to have any kind of hope of saving it is expanding the marketing view and finding some kind of way of balancing the three riderships to increase the extension's numbers during this second six month test period. Trying to tap into the DePaul market is only one suggestion in how to possibly do that. They may not have explicitly mentioned the portion of the route north of the Brown Line in marketing materials except to say it still is in operation on weekends and before 10 AM on weekdays in addition to the time frame the extension is scheduled. But it's quite clear from how the community, especially that in Pawar's ward, have been looking at the extension that the focus has largely been on getting folks that were already riding the northernmost portion north of the Brown Line to ride further south instead of switching to the Brown Line upon reaching Western, which again obviously is not working as a strategy. I'm not saying DePaul is the only other source of riders or the only way to try saving the extension by any means. But what I am saying, marginal pickup of riders in your view or not, is that the folks who wanted this extension need to step up their game in trying to reach out to other potential sources of riders to get that extension's numbers up by the time summer pick service tweaks are set to be effective, one of which can be the DePaul area. Otherwise CTA needs to stop wasting time and limited resources on an extension that folks are barely using after four years of crying about how much it was needed. CTA already did its part with its brochures. Those businesses along the extension, which are more than just some random spa you cynically zeroed in on, are obviously drawing in customers at a decent clip from what I observed. As part of my point that you seem so determined to keep trying to dismiss out of hand, instead of those businesses crying about the 10 AM-7 PM weekday schedule of the extended portion they could have spent the original six months helping push the merits CTA already mentioned in its brochure by reaching out to their customers and saying "Hey if you're visiting us from outside the neighborhood and used public transit to do so, the #11 bus is back during weekdays to help you get here easier than possibly dealing with a crowded Brown Line train" or "The #11 bus is back and it can get you here more directly than the Brown Line train that's a few blocks away".  Basically, they either start thinking outside the box and show they want the freaking extension to succeed through some credible actions showing they're trying to reach to the different potential ridership sources available, or they stop wasting the CTA and everyone else's time with all the lip service that they want it to exist beyond the June summer pick start date.