2017 CTA Budget

[Busjack]

It's here.

On the bus replacement front, it says only up to 30 electric buses, and then start replacing 1000s (page 59).

Garfield Green Line station is supposed to get an upgrade similar to Belmont Blue Line, on the basis that the U of C is supposed to develop a cultural center around there.

Doesn't appear to be any mention of new bus garages, just the broken down condition of some of the existing ones.

Addition: NFs not scheduled to be retired until 2024 to be rehabbed again.

[Juniorz]

This budget is everything that is currently known about the latest projects. Mr. Carter indicated that there would be a balanced budget without any fare increase and service changes when interviewed with the Tribune about the Route 31's fall return during the summer.

No big surprises and nothing to worry about, which is good to hear!

[Busjack]

17 minutes ago, Juniorz said:

This budget is everything that is currently known about the latest projects.

I got that message and was surprised by it. If anything was a surprise, it was 30 buses instead of 50 in last year's capital plan.

One possible surprise is that they thought Uber and Lyft were eating into ridership numbers.

[BusHunter]

4 hours ago, Busjack said:

It's here.

On the bus replacement front, it says only up to 30 electric buses, and then start replacing 1000s (page 59).

Garfield Green Line station is supposed to get an upgrade similar to Belmont Blue Line, on the basis that the U of C is supposed to develop a cultural center around there.

Doesn't appear to be any mention of new bus garages, just the broken down condition of some of the existing ones.

Addition: NFs not scheduled to be retired until 2024 to be rehabbed again.

But they forgot to mention the replacement of 100 #6400's. So does this mean fg will be rolling around with  16 year old buses next year? Even worse it sounds like they may be doing 17 years at least. 

[sw4400]

39 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

But they forgot to mention the replacement of 100 #6400's. So does this mean fg will be rolling around with  16 year old buses next year? Even worse it sounds like they may be doing 17 years at least. 

If it's not mentioned, then there might not be any 6400-Series buses after 2017. According to page 63....

• Buses entered into service between 2000 and 2002 have reached the end of their useful life and are being replaced with clean diesel buses equipped with the latest generation emissions equipment and are proven heavy-duty propulsion technologies.

It seems like the 6400's will be replaced with the 7900's(at least 90% replaced). I don't think any 6400's will be around after 2017. Now the possibility of buses starting to be replaced with electric buses..... the next line might shed some light on what buses will be replaced with electric buses(or clean diesel/hybrid or both, depending on what they procure in the contract)

• In addition, there is a second series of buses in service since 2006 are scheduled for replacement in the FY 2020-2021.

[Busjack]

44 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

But they forgot to mention the replacement of 100 #6400's. So does this mean fg will be rolling around with  16 year old buses next year? Even worse it sounds like they may be doing 17 years at least. 

 

6 minutes ago, sw4400 said:

If it's not mentioned, then there might not be any 6400-Series buses after 2017. According to page 63....

...

I don't think they are going to replace 100 6400s, given the bloat in the fleet, but saying only up to 30 seems too little to me. 50 based on thee 2016 budget or maybe up to 75 actually on the street would seem to make more sense. But, in any event, it seems like they have to send more NFs from elsewhere to FG.

[jajuan]

2 hours ago, Busjack said:

 

I don't think they are going to replace 100 6400s, given the bloat in the fleet, but saying only up to 30 seems too little to me. 50 based on thee 2016 budget or maybe up to 75 actually on the street would seem to make more sense. But, in any event, it seems like they have to send more NFs from elsewhere to FG.

On the 6400s front, it sounds like it's a combination of there's more bloat in the fleet than realized on our part and an underestimation on CTA's part on what how many would actually be left if the bloat were gone. SW's quote of the start of replacing the 1000s in FY 2020-21 falls in line with what you found and reported about their total retirement being 2024. That's not much of a surprise given it took three years to complete the whole order. The question now becomes whether CTA finally get diesel powered Xcelsiors beyond the two electric ones on hand or will it get more Novas starting in the next just over three to four years. Xcelsiors should still be available given the standard 40 foot LF model was available for 22 years, and the Xcelsior would be going into 12 years of production at that point. Plus New Flyer hasn't shown any signs of having come up with a model that would knock the Xcelsior out of the way like it finally did the LF and LFR series (as well as the LFW after New Flyer completed full acquisition and merger of NABI). 

[Busjack]

1 hour ago, jajuan said:

On the 6400s front, it sounds like it's a combination of there's more bloat in the fleet than realized on our part and an underestimation on CTA's part on what how many would actually be left if the bloat were gone. SW's quote of the start of replacing the 1000s in FY 2020-21 falls in line with what you found and reported about their total retirement being 2024. That's not much of a surprise given it took three years to complete the whole order. The question now becomes whether CTA finally get diesel powered Xcelsiors beyond the two electric ones on hand or will it get more Novas starting in the next just over three to four years. Xcelsiors should still be available given the standard 40 foot LF model was available for 22 years, and the Xcelsior would be going into 12 years of production at that point. Plus New Flyer hasn't shown any signs of having come up with a model that would knock the Xcelsior out of the way like it finally did the LF and LFR series (as well as the LFW after New Flyer completed full acquisition and merger of NABI). 

The question was more about what, if anything, would be left of the 6400s after the electric buses. sw got the impression nothing, BH thinks otherwise.

As I just answered with regard to Gillig, what diesel buses CTA gets next, ostensibly to replace 1000s depends on how the bidding goes.

[jajuan]

Just now, Busjack said:

The question was more about what, if anything, would be left of the 6400s after the electric buses. sw got the impression nothing, BH thinks otherwise.

As I just answered with regard to Gillig, what diesel buses CTA gets next, ostensibly to replace 1000s depends on how the bidding goes.

Well I was going beyond just the 6400s question sir since I did break it down into two distinct points.  You noted the 30 electrics down from the prior mention of 50 sounded kind of low. Thus my point that if it that's the case, it sounds like a combination of there maybe being a larger bloat than we realized as well as CTA possibly undercounting  a bit what may be left among the 6400s. On my second point about what may replace the 1000s, of course it's dependent on how bidding goes, but let's also be realistic here. Nova and New Flyer are the two main manufacturers out of those that still exist and doing business in North America that have supplied CTA in the past decade and a half. Yes NABI supplied as well, but putting aside the obvious that what it supplied CTA was junk that seriously damaged its chances of doing business with CTA again any time soon, it essentially no longer exists as a distinct entity given NF discontinued NABI's LFW series along with its own LF and LFR models and has NABI producing Xcelsiors. So the two main choices in a realistic since for CTA are NF and Nova until such time Gillig proves itself to be real competition in getting a contract with CTA. 

[BusHunter]

16 minutes ago, Busjack said:

The question was more about what, if anything, would be left of the 6400s after the electric buses. sw got the impression nothing, BH thinks otherwise.

As I just answered with regard to Gillig, what diesel buses CTA gets next, ostensibly to replace 1000s depends on how the bidding goes.

I don't know but I was taught in math class that 30 from 100 equals 70. Maybe there's something still out there that we are not seeing. You guys don't think there's still the possibility that up to #8349 is still coming. Now that with 30 electrics and it gets interesting because that brings them down to 45 #6400's left. i could see them gobbling that up but it gets hard when you figure the south side bus expansion because that would support a greater need for more buses in the fleet. Wasn't it 15 buses that went south for the last service expansion? Plus 31st is a few more buses for 77th. So really when you dissect this I can't see the #6400's disappearing. That's just my opinion though.

What kind of is suspect to me was sw's quote that the #6400's are being replaced with clean diesel buses. Now we don't know when this budget was wrote, but it refers to something that should be in the past and puts in the the context of the present or future, so maybe I'm reading tea leaves maybe I'm not but I'd say up #8349 is coming.

On a sidenote I'm noticing a heavy concentration of NF's on FG's routes, even more than the new #8200's. Now if there are more #8200's why would that be? It appears NF is the bus of choice among the operators and maybe the older Novas. That would appear to be the same thing that's going on at 77th. Just check the weekend fleets in service and you'll see what I mean.

[jajuan]

1 minute ago, BusHunter said:

I don't know but I was taught in math class that 30 from 100 equals 70. Maybe there's something still out there that we are not seeing. You guys don't think there's still the possibility that up to #8349 is still coming. Now that with 30 electrics and it gets interesting because that brings them down to 45 #6400's left. i could see them gobbling that up but it gets hard when you figure the south side bus expansion because that would support a greater need for more buses in the fleet. Wasn't it 15 buses that went south for the last service expansion? Plus 31st is a few more buses for 77th. So really when you dissect this I can't see the #6400's disappearing. That's just my opinion though.

What kind of is suspect to me was sw's quote that the #6400's are being replaced with clean diesel buses. Now we don't know when this budget was wrote, but it refers to something that should be in the past and puts in the the context of the present or future, so maybe I'm reading tea leaves maybe I'm not but I'd say up #8349 is coming.

On a sidenote I'm noticing a heavy concentration of NF's on FG's routes, even more than the new #8200's. Now if there are more #8200's why would that be? It appears NF is the bus of choice among the operators and maybe the older Novas. That would appear to be the same thing that's going on at 77th. Just check the weekend fleets in service and you'll see what I mean.

But don't forget BH that a good chunk of that 70, well  the 100 for that matter before CTA even getting any new electrics, is junk that should already be gone even after accounting for the return of X9, X49, 31 and the extensions of the 4 and 26. Hence the several references to a current bloat in the bus fleet. So the main question on that front is how big the bloat really is. You're still not giving a large enough consideration that the spare ratio should drop significantly with CTA having all 7900s in its possession now. 

[Busjack]

28 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

. You guys don't think there's still the possibility that up to #8349 is still coming. Now that with 30 electrics and it gets interesting because that brings them down to 45 #6400's left

The issue, as I noted above, is that the 2016 budget said 50 clean diesels or electrics. This budget only says up to 30 electrics. Where the other 20 plus buses went is beyond me.

Otherwise, I go along with jajuan on that.I had previously said about 500 bloat, and while I'm still not sure that BusTracker issues on 95 have been resolved, there sure isn't a reason for a 30% spare ratio.

39 minutes ago, jajuan said:

Nova and New Flyer are the two main manufacturers out of those that still exist and doing business in North America that have supplied CTA in the past decade and a half.

Note that I previously said "ostensibly" diesel buses. The possibility previously floated by CTA was that if the ~30 worked, there would be more electrics in the next mix, which may open up the market more (Proterra and BYD, as examples).

[BusHunter]

25 minutes ago, jajuan said:

But don't forget BH that a good chunk of that 70, well  the 100 for that matter before CTA even getting any new electrics, is junk that should already be gone even after accounting for the return of X9, X49, 31 and the extensions of the 4 and 26. Hence the several references to a current bloat in the bus fleet. So the main question on that front is how big the bloat really is. You're still not giving a large enough consideration that the spare ratio should drop significantly with CTA having all 7900s in its possession now. 

Yeah but I think that "junk" is needed. Actually that 5 bus routes you mention would support a greater demand on fleet, so I don't quite get where your coming from. If there is bloat, then why hasn't CTA reduced the number of buses??? As far as I know the fleets are unchanged since #8324's arrival.

I took my first of many detailed looks on this budget. Now i discover a somewhat interesting read on page 10...

"Fleet Modernization – Bus & Rail Cars
CTA is modernizing its vehicle fleet by purchasing new and overhauling existing buses and
rail cars. These investments will reduce vehicle fleet maintenance costs and improve the
customer experience. As part of the modernization, fabric seat inserts will be replaced with
new non-absorbent materials. Funding is provided from various sources, including TIFIA,
and is shown in detail in the 2017-2021 CIP."

So what are they saying, the decision has already been made to put non fabric seats in the buses and trains? What about the seat test???

This is as bad as that scene is ghostbusters when they say the choice of the traveler has been made.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ctgn7kKYHo

Now I didn't choose anything, did you? Bill Murray's always good for a laugh.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the artics will be rehabbed with non fabric seat inserts. At least that's what it sounds like.

[Busjack]

1 hour ago, BusHunter said:

Yeah but I think that "junk" is needed. Actually that 5 bus routes you mention would support a greater demand on fleet, so I don't quite get where your coming from.

If, as I  calculated, they have 500 more buses than peak demand on BusTracker, something is needed only in a very general sense, not really to meet service demands.

1 hour ago, BusHunter said:

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the artics will be rehabbed with non fabric seat inserts. At least that's what it sounds like.

I wouldn't bet on what buses, but I had previously noted that the text of the test announcement was biased against yanking the plastic inserts out of those 50 buses. I also noted that American Seating made an equivalent insert.

This may be the usual CTA "input process" where they will say that what the passengers said coincided with what they were going to do anyway. But, to get to your link, you won't be sitting on the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man.

[Busjack]

On the customer satisfaction issue, compare this article on businesses driven by a customer focus, vs. CTA, which is mostly there to minimize loses, although Carter is willing to throw the occasional bone.

[BusHunter]

46 minutes ago, Busjack said:

If, as I  calculated, they have 500 more buses than peak demand on BusTracker, something is needed only in a very general sense, not really to meet service demands.

I wouldn't bet on what buses, but I had previously noted that the text of the test announcement was biased against yanking the plastic inserts out of those 50 buses. I also noted that American Seating made an equivalent insert.

This may be the usual CTA "input process" where they will say that what the passengers said coincided with what they were going to do anyway. But, to get to your link, you won't be sitting on the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man.

Yeah but the key word in what I quoted from page 10 above, is modernization, but it's sort of an oxymoron in how it's stated in which the first sentence states modernization of buses as in overhaul or rehab, and the following sentence says as part of the modernization. I took it as part of the same overhaul or rehab that's mentioned above but you seem to take it as an overall modernization.

I can't really say for sure if there is excessive bloat or not with the fleets but still then why would they keep the #6400 buses around? Winter is coming. For some strange reason it seems this is how CTA now manages it's fleets. For example why does the Green line have 202 cars when at one time they ran with 100 cars? That is over 16 extra trains and we are talking all 6 car trains. It could be from an operational standpoint, that they can have less mechanics because they have more buses and they can hold those in reserve. So then they wouldn't need a bus right now repaired because they just go to the reserve and grab a bus. Where they would still get hit is on the artics because they don't have extra but they can shuffle in some 40 foot reserves and who would be the wiser. At 20-30 bucks an hour, they can save quite a bit depending on how many they can eliminate.

[sw4400]

Anyone able to understand this paragraph from page 62?

Funding/Description of Proposed Work/Major Elements: In FY 2017, CTA has programmed $14.7 million, the final installment of project funds to provide for the overhaul of 208 Articulated Hybrid Buses. In FY 2018-2021, funding is provided for the initial phase of funding required to overall 4300-Series Artic Buses and for a life extending overhaul of up to 400 additional buses prior to their planned replacement in FY 2022. The actual number of buses to receive a life extending overhaul will be determined by the size of the first of two future bus orders anticipated to replace the 1000-Series buses. The overhaul program will provide for ongoing bus vehicle overhaul efforts to support removal and installation of components including, but not limited to engines, transmissions, cooling systems, HVAC systems, wheelchair ramps, batteries, suspension systems and doors. The program will also correct defects discovered during inspections.

Are there defects in the 1000-Series and/or 4300-Series New Flyers that were noticed during inspections when they first arrived, and if the latter, hopefully not anything like the 7500-Series NABI fiasco. No defects that I know of on either of these buses..... they seem to function fine. Anyone know of any defects?

[Busjack]

It looks to me that they will be thoroughly inspecting 10 year old buses.Sort of like on a car maintenance schedule, the 75000 mile maintenance costs $700, while a 6 month oil change and tire rotation is $30.

Do you really think that if there was a defect on delivery in around 2008-2009, CTA would leave it unaddressed until 2018?

[BusHunter]

Theres always some little hiccup on these buses that cta has seen and wants to address. Its that way on anything you buy so its not unique to the manufacturer and its probably not there fault directly. Mostly these factories basically assemble parts so its really on the suppliers. Probably not that the parts are defective its more that they are unreliable and cta has found a solution to extend that parts life. Its like these samsung phones i have a defective  handset with an unworking sim card terminal and these notes are catching fire. So i think the whole 7 series line may have problems. So now samsung needs to get with its suppliers and fix its issues or they will lose customers. 

[jajuan]

10 hours ago, sw4400 said:

Anyone able to understand this paragraph from page 62?

Funding/Description of Proposed Work/Major Elements: In FY 2017, CTA has programmed $14.7 million, the final installment of project funds to provide for the overhaul of 208 Articulated Hybrid Buses. In FY 2018-2021, funding is provided for the initial phase of funding required to overall 4300-Series Artic Buses and for a life extending overhaul of up to 400 additional buses prior to their planned replacement in FY 2022. The actual number of buses to receive a life extending overhaul will be determined by the size of the first of two future bus orders anticipated to replace the 1000-Series buses. The overhaul program will provide for ongoing bus vehicle overhaul efforts to support removal and installation of components including, but not limited to engines, transmissions, cooling systems, HVAC systems, wheelchair ramps, batteries, suspension systems and doors. The program will also correct defects discovered during inspections.

Are there defects in the 1000-Series and/or 4300-Series New Flyers that were noticed during inspections when they first arrived, and if the latter, hopefully not anything like the 7500-Series NABI fiasco. No defects that I know of on either of these buses..... they seem to function fine. Anyone know of any defects?

Besides Busjack beating me to the punch that you're jumping the gun and assuming the worst in another knee jerk reaction, I think you might have found that the earliest CTA is looking to rehab the 4300s right at the midway point of the federal recommended 12 year service life for transit buses, given the 4300s will be six years old in 2018, instead of doing so at the eight to ten year mark as we saw to be the case with the 1000s and upcoming rehab of the 4000s.

[Busjack]

29 minutes ago, jajuan said:

, I think you might have found that the earliest CTA is looking to rehab the 4300s right at the midway point of the federal recommended 12 year service life for transit buses, given the 4300s will be six years old in 2018, instead of doing so at the eight to ten year mark as we saw to be the case with the 1000s and upcoming rehab of the 4000s.

You did use the term "earliest," but since it says "FY 2018-2021, funding is provided for the initial phase of funding required to overall [sic] 4300-Series Artic Buses" may not be that early. Of course, that was also thrown in with the life extending rehab of 1000s that are not to be replaced during this five year plan.

[sw4400]

3 hours ago, jajuan said:

Besides Busjack beating me to the punch that you're jumping the gun and assuming the worst in another knee jerk reaction, I think you might have found that the earliest CTA is looking to rehab the 4300s right at the midway point of the federal recommended 12 year service life for transit buses, given the 4300s will be six years old in 2018, instead of doing so at the eight to ten year mark as we saw to be the case with the 1000s and upcoming rehab of the 4000s.

I'm not assuming the worst..... the line that the CTA mentioned in their own budget....

The program will also correct defects discovered during inspections.

What inspections are they talking about? "Defects discovered" sounds past-tense to me. If they said "Defects that may be discovered", sounds more like after the rehabs. I know when buses are delivered, they are inspected before being put into service.

[sw4400]

9 hours ago, BusHunter said:

Theres always some little hiccup on these buses that cta has seen and wants to address. Its that way on anything you buy so its not unique to the manufacturer and its probably not there fault directly. Mostly these factories basically assemble parts so its really on the suppliers. Probably not that the parts are defective its more that they are unreliable and cta has found a solution to extend that parts life. Its like these samsung phones i have a defective  handset with an unworking sim card terminal and these notes are catching fire. So i think the whole 7 series line may have problems. So now samsung needs to get with its suppliers and fix its issues or they will lose customers. 

I'll be brief on this topic, as it's OT and I don't want to discuss it further on the forum(you can PM me more about it if you wish).....

I have had a Galaxy S7 since May, 2016 and it's been awesome.... the phone sips battery and never gets extremely hot. Warmest it gets on a 10-scale rating is 2-3 when charging on it's wireless pad. I feel like the Note 7 problem is not related to design or battery, but will stop commenting on this here. PM if you want to hear my thoughts as to what possibly caused the Note 7's downfall....

[jajuan]

1 hour ago, sw4400 said:

I'm not assuming the worst..... the line that the CTA mentioned in their own budget....

The program will also correct defects discovered during inspections.

What inspections are they talking about? "Defects discovered" sounds past-tense to me. If they said "Defects that may be discovered", sounds more like after the rehabs. I know when buses are delivered, they are inspected before being put into service.

Defects from normal wear and tear that happens with any machine especially on a motor vehicle such as a bus that can have hundreds of thousands of parts. You're reacting, pulling things out of context, and making it sound like the next NABI on the horizon, something I noted a number of times needs to stop happening on the forum when that whole fiasco was over eight years ago and has had resulted in CTA making corrections on its end to have kept another one from happening since. Basically all you really uncovered is CTA making acknowledgments that its corrective policies since NABI are still working after eight years. 

[BusHunter]

18 hours ago, sw4400 said:

Anyone able to understand this paragraph from page 62?

Funding/Description of Proposed Work/Major Elements: In FY 2017, CTA has programmed $14.7 million, the final installment of project funds to provide for the overhaul of 208 Articulated Hybrid Buses. In FY 2018-2021, funding is provided for the initial phase of funding required to overall 4300-Series Artic Buses and for a life extending overhaul of up to 400 additional buses prior to their planned replacement in FY 2022. The actual number of buses to receive a life extending overhaul will be determined by the size of the first of two future bus orders anticipated to replace the 1000-Series buses. The overhaul program will provide for ongoing bus vehicle overhaul efforts to support removal and installation of components including, but not limited to engines, transmissions, cooling systems, HVAC systems, wheelchair ramps, batteries, suspension systems and doors. The program will also correct defects discovered during inspections.

Are there defects in the 1000-Series and/or 4300-Series New Flyers that were noticed during inspections when they first arrived, and if the latter, hopefully not anything like the 7500-Series NABI fiasco. No defects that I know of on either of these buses..... they seem to function fine. Anyone know of any defects?

I see something in your quote that interests me. The actual number of buses to receive a life extending overhaul will be determined by the size of the first of two future bus orders anticipated to replace the 1000-Series buses.

So they intend to replace the #1000's with two different orders? They couldn't be referring to the 30 electrics as they were supposed to replace the #6400's. So it's something I suspect is on the horizon, that they may be looking at a sizable electric bus acquisition because that would be the next step after these 30 which are like a second trial of the #700's. Of course it could be just two different clean diesel orders but I think that's not likely.