600 series New Flyer

[CHI74]

Hello,

Can anyone tell me if it is known to witch of the garages the 600 NEW FLYER DE60LF that are numbered 600-749 will sent to? :unsure:

[jajuan]

Hello,

Can anyone tell me if it is known to witch of the garages the 600 NEW FLYER DE60LF that are numbered 600-749 will sent to?

No one outside of the CTA will probably have that info until just around the time those buses start getting delivered in August.

[CHI74]

Thank you for that infomation, one other thing the 600 NEW FLYER DE60LF`s are thay ARTICULATED?

If thay are will thay be put on routes like Michigan Ave or Navy Peir?

[wordguy]

Thank you for that infomation, one other thing the 600 NEW FLYER DE60LF`s are thay ARTICULATED?

If thay are will thay be put on routes like Michigan Ave or Navy Peir?

Yes, the 600-series New Flyers will be articulated.

Your guess is as good as mine. Few contributors to this site have any association with the CTA. The rest of us can only speculate.

[jajuan]

Yes, the 600-series New Flyers will be articulated.

Your guess is as good as mine. Few contributors to this site have any association with the CTA. The rest of us can only speculate.

Going on speculation it should be a similar pattern with the 600 series as the NABIs. It's a good guess that you'll see them on Lake Shore Drive express routes along with some high ridership locals within the CTA's system.

[Busjack]

Going on speculation it should be a similar pattern with the 600 series as the NABIs. It's a good guess that you'll see them on Lake Shore Drive express routes along with some high ridership locals within the CTA's system.

No, according to Huberman, LSD is probably not where you will see them. You will see them where they can replace 4 40 footers with 3.

[BusHunter]

No, according to Huberman, LSD is probably not where you will see them. You will see them where they can replace 4 40 footers with 3.

Correct somewhat, the buses will replace 40 footers, but LSD 40 footers. The #5800's at NP, TMC's at 77th and what's left for early 90's buses at 103rd will most likely be replaced by these buses. Kedzie is unclear to me, because now they heavily rely on 40 footers. Most likely they would receive them though in the long run.

[jajuan]

No, according to Huberman, LSD is probably not where you will see them. You will see them where they can replace 4 40 footers with 3.

Ok I see. So routes that people have been mentioning were bogged down with excessively crowded buses such as 77 on the north and northwest side and 79 on the southside would be seen operated with some of these buses.

[jajuan]

Correct somewhat, the buses will replace 40 footers, but LSD 40 footers. The #5800's at NP, TMC's at 77th and what's left for early 90's buses at 103rd will most likely be replaced by these buses. Kedzie is unclear to me, because now they heavily rely on 40 footers. Most likely they would receive them though in the long run.

Considering that not all LSD routes have superhigh ridership to need even more 60 footers, that really doesn't make sense for the CTA to concentrate so many arctics there. With a total 375 artics minus whatever few are unsalvageable for service, you would think they'd also want to evaluate the high use local routes outside downtown and assign accordingly. The focus now is supposed to be improving service and the riding experience, and expanding the use of the arctic fleet to other high use routes is one way of doing that. So we should hope that would be a pattern to follow. Thinking it through a little more, my earlier post is limited in how the new hybrids should be used.

[Busjack]

Since the question was previously asked, I'll go back to my previous post on how I would do it. The only thing changed in that calculus is that Halsted has changed garages.

How close that comes to reality depends on whether CTA planning has become more rational.

Other than that, jajuan's original reply is the only responsible one:

No one outside of the CTA will probably have that info until just around the time those buses start getting delivered in August.

[BUSANGEL#1]

FYI:The 600s are replacing 5800s and 6000s. Options 3/4 of the flyers are replacing TMCs.

FYI:As far as I know 74th and FG will recieve them.

[Busjack]

FYI:The 600s are replacing 5800s and 6000s. Options 3/4 of the flyers are replacing TMCs.

FYI:As far as I know 74th and FG will recieve them.

No, as previously indicated, the worst buses on the roster will fall off first. CTA has repeatedly announced that the 5300s will be gone by the end of Option 2, but some are still around, according to other posters.

The only announcement from an official CTA source was Huberman telling the CTA Tattler that the 4400s and 5300s will be gone by Thanksgiving. Since deliveries of 1000s will extend until at least Feb 09, the inference is that some of the 1000s will be replacing some 5800s or 6000s, or else why the deliveries after November?

This again proves that jajuan is correct, unless you or BusHunter disclose a relationship with CTA establishing access to inside information (that the CTA itself probably doesn't have).

[BusHunter]

No, as previously indicated, the worst buses on the roster will fall off first. CTA has repeatedly announced that the 5300s will be gone by the end of Option 2, but some are still around, according to other posters.

The only announcement from an official CTA source was Huberman telling the CTA Tattler that the 4400s and 5300s will be gone by Thanksgiving. Since deliveries of 1000s will extend until at least Feb 09, the inference is that some of the 1000s will be replacing some 5800s or 6000s, or else why the deliveries after November?

This again proves that jajuan is correct, unless you or BusHunter disclose a relationship with CTA establishing access to inside information (that the CTA itself probably doesn't have).

What is it with you Busjack, why do you want to know my identity so bad. I don't ask you who you are and what relationship you have to CTA, do I? You lay out some pretty serious info. I have a right to know your identity if you want to know mine. It's not a one way street.

[Busjack]

What is it with you Busjack, why do you want to know my identity so bad. I don't ask you who you are and what relationship you have to CTA, do I? You lay out some pretty serious info. I have a right to know your identity if you want to know mine. It's not a one way street.

No, I don't want your identity. What I want to know is whether your information is reliable. If you have circumstantial evidence of reliablility, like rmadison does (although someone has challenged him recently), fine. However, when you make an assertion of fact, such as that "Correct somewhat, the buses will replace 40 footers, but LSD 40 footers," I can't accept it without some indicia of reliability. At least I said in my post to which I referred "Not being a CTA insider" and "I'm not saying that will happen, but since I wondered too, that is how I would do it." I'm not making assertions of fact that I can't support.

Thus, if you can support the quoted sentence, describe evidence to prove it, or just say that it is your prediction.

BTW, with such reports as Optimas on 62, I doubt that even someone within the CTA can predict on what route a bus will be assigned 5-15 months from now.

[BusExpert32]

Maybe you should read my preceding reply before speculating on this.

Fine, then I'm astonished that if BusHunter isn't a CTA insider, he did a great job with his fleet lists even without precise inside info. But if he doesn't want to share his hunting technique with you, or I, or anyone else, then so be it. And he already mentioned his seclusion to the matter at least three times.

[sw4400]

No, as previously indicated, the worst buses on the roster will fall off first. CTA has repeatedly announced that the 5300s will be gone by the end of Option 2, but some are still around, according to other posters.

The only announcement from an official CTA source was Huberman telling the CTA Tattler that the 4400s and 5300s will be gone by Thanksgiving. Since deliveries of 1000s will extend until at least Feb 09, the inference is that some of the 1000s will be replacing some 5800s or 6000s, or else why the deliveries after November?

Busjack,

Allow me to show you something, OK?

Total # of TMC's and Flxibles 5300-Series(As of delivery in 1989-1991): 944 total buses in both groups.

Total # of New Flyer 1000-Series: 1,030 diesel buses

Difference of 1,030-944= 86 extra buses.

Not much left to do much retiring of either 5800-Series or 6000-Series. Those buses will be retired completely(5800's) or partially(6000's) after completion of the 600-Series New Flyers. The 1000-Series was ordered to replace only the 5300-Series Flxibles and 4400-Series TMC's

Presuming there is still at least 50 5800's on the streets as of now. Look at this....

Total # of New Flyer 5800-Series: 50

Total # of Flxibles 6000-Series: 330(some probably are already retired, but I'll go on the full amount for this example)

Total of 330+50=380 Buses.

Total # of New Flyer 600-Series: 150 Buses

Subtract 50 for replacement of New Flyer 5800-Series: 100 Buses

Those 100 will be used to start replacement of the Flxible 6000-Series, not finish it. The 6000-Series will probably be totally gone sometime after 2010 after an order for some other type of bus(probably another New Flyer order seeing how they are dominant in the U.S at this time).

[Busjack]

Busjack,

Allow me to show you something, OK?

As I previously indicated, I foresaw about 85 6000s left at the end of these orders (based also on shrinkage after 3 track is done). We can quibble over the numbers, but to little avail. Again, analysis 3 years ago would have indicated that the 5300s would have been long gone by now, as stated in numerous CTA Press Releases, but they aren't. Also, to add to your calculations is that some 5300s were retired with the NABIs, and there has been a fleet increase of about 200 buses in the past few years. Most of the X routes and changes in the West Side restructuring constituted new service, imposing new fleet requirements, as it doesn't appear that the standard routes were reduced when the Xs were added.

So, I'm not sure what you are showing me. But I think experience does show that buses don't fall off the roster in any order, but based on having exceeded FTA service life and being worse than the others. That is reflected by the list of Pace buses being sold.

My only point in raising the issue in this thread was to show that neither the D40LFs nor the DE60LFs replace anything in particular, and that they have overlapping delivery horizons, both exceeding Huberman's estimate of when the 5300s and 4400s will be gone. Note also that he is giving a common estimate for both series.

As to how many actually are in the junk heap in 16 months, we will see, and each of us is entitled to our estimate. But trainman is always correct in saying "if you think you have it figured out ...." Ask all the people near Archer who thought they were permanently getting new buses 2 years ago.

[Tamir4317]

Those 100 will be used to start replacement of the Flxible 6000-Series, not finish it. The 6000-Series will probably be totally gone sometime after 2010 after an order for some other type of bus(probably another New Flyer order seeing how they are dominant in the U.S at this time).

Oh God, If that's the case, then this will be my version of the 1970's. The years in which you couldn't go anywhere without seeing a fishbowl (although I dig fishbowls). I like the New Flyers, but I pray another bus company rises to the occasion by then. But if it has to be NF's, then at least paint them in the classic all white, with red & blue stripes, or a new version of the classic green.

[sw4400]

As I previously indicated, I foresaw about 85 6000s left at the end of these orders (based also on shrinkage after 3 track is done). We can quibble over the numbers, but to little avail.

My only point in raising the issue in this thread was to show that neither the D40LFs nor the DE60LFs replace anything in particular

As to how many actually are in the junk heap in 16 months, we will see, and each of us is entitled to our estimate. But trainman is always correct in saying "if you think you have it figured out ...." Ask all the people near Archer who thought they were permanently getting new buses 2 years ago.

Read these quotes from Kevin's Bus History articles... a guy who has some contacts in the CTA...

About the 600-Series:

Delivery of the new buses will begin in August, with all 150 scheduled to be received by summer 2009. The new buses will speed retirement of the 4400-series TMC RTS buses, the 5300-series Flxible Metros, and the 5800-series New Flyer D40LFs. Approximately half of the 6000-series Flxible Metros are also expected to be retired upon completion of delivery

And the 1000-Series:

The 1000-series will replace both the 5300-series Flxible Metro and 4400-series TMC RTS buses.

If you think Kevin's contacts are wrong, please let us know Busjack. I'm going with the Admin on this info he provided. According to our Admin's sources, the 5300's and 4400's are being retired by the 1000's and the 600's will retire the 5800's and only half of the 6000's(which is around 165 seeing close to 300 are still in active service. These buses aren't as bad off as the 5300's, Busjack. They had a rehab in 2005).

[Busjack]

Oh God, If that's the case, then this will be my version of the 1970's. The years in which you couldn't go anywhere without seeing a fishbowl (although I dig fishbowls). I like the New Flyers, but I pray another bus company rises to the occasion by then.

You are close. The 1000s, 7400s, 9000s, and 9600s comprised 1875 out of about 2400 buses, or about 78%. The various series of New Flyers (1000, 800, 900, and 600) will be 1200 out of about 2100, or about 57%, and one could lump in the NABIs as looking about the same (although one hopes that the NFs will be more dependable). The only different looking buses will be the Novas, Optimas, and whatever stragglers are left (take sw's, my, or any other estimate). And apparently those series will be limited to certain garages.

It was previously mentioned in the retired buses thread that at one time CTA buses were mostly MH trolley buses and Twin Coach propanes.

In any event, with 1250 NFs, you don't have the short series variety you had in the era of the old Flyers and MANs (or even the split between TMCs and Flxs).