Pace 2013 budget

[Busjack]

Since several years got their own topic, so for this year's budget.

Since most of us are capital geeks, the notable item is on page 36 (48 of the PDF):

108 Fixed Route buses ($56.800 million): 20 over the road (OTR) buses for I-90 expansion, 75 CNG replacement buses and 13 diesel 40' buses.

I assume that this is in addition to the 156 diesel buses and 15 OTRs announced with regard to the 2012 budget.

How far does this go in making South's conventional fleet CNG? I have a rough estimate that South needs 85-89 conventional buses, but I haven't kept up with all the 6600s coming in, although 11 2400s are scrap. In any event, it doesn't look like South will be 100% CNG.

BTW: Any idea of the source of the picture of a CNG bus on page 42 (54 of the PDF), other than it looks like an Xcelsior?

Update: Based on BusHunter's previous comments whether the budget shows service expansion, the 5 year capital plan indicates mostly replacement (except for the I-90 project) and on page 44 (56) indicates that the program pretty much peters out after 2014-- out of 243 buses over 5 years, only 42 in the 3 out years.

[MetroShadow]

I think that the bus made a stop, for review and/or demo purposes, but eventually have gone to its home destination.

[Busjack]

I think that the bus made a stop, for review and/or demo purposes, but eventually have gone to its home destination.

I'm sure of that.

The question was if anyone knows which transit authority owns the bus, or whether it was a NF demonstrator.*

________

*It was sure obvious where Pace 2010 was headed.

Update: I'll also modify my suppositions about the effect of NABI doing a sales job on Pace if NF also did one.

[trainman8119]

Is the "Northwest Cook" garage they speak of Northwest Division in Des Plaines or are they

talking some type of paratransit garage ??? (never heard it refered to as "Northwest Cook").

[Busjack]

Is the "Northwest Cook" garage they speak of Northwest Division in Des Plaines or are they talking some type of paratransit garage ??? (never heard it refered to as "Northwest Cook").

They mean "Northwest" as in Northwest Division.

They have been using lingo like "Northwest Cook" and "South Cook" in budgets, and especially in PA 97-770, for a couple of years now.

You'll also note that the Act distinguishes a Du Page paratransit garage.

BTW, this budget actually says how Pace intends to pay for the bonds authorized by that Act.

[jesi2282]

That CNG Xcelsior is painted in Rock Island MetroLINK livery.

Heres a better look: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.metro-magazine.com/images/news/M-METDaily2-Metrolink2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.metro-magazine.com/News/Story/2012/10/Illinois-Metrolink-sends-sustainability-message.aspx&usg=__fTHQWSp4CxPOAHmhVhtE4kR7c7c=&h=320&w=480&sz=55&hl=en&start=4&zoom=1&tbnid=HbltzbW7m_9fMM:&tbnh=86&tbnw=129&ei=gpV3UL3UEIj68QTzhIC4Cg&prev=/search%3Fq%3DRock%2BIsland%2BMetroLINK%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26sa%3DN%26rls%3Dcom.microsoft:*%26tbm%3Disch&um=1&itbs=1

[Busjack]

That CNG Xcelsior is painted in Rock Island MetroLINK livery.

Heres a better look: http://www.google.co...sch&um=1&itbs=1

That's it.

MetroLink has posted a spreadsheet of its fleet, indicating that it now runs mostly CNG. The 1200s haven't made it on the spreadsheet yet, but obviously the fleet numbers correspond to the year.

Update: Official minutes reflecting the order.

If MetroLink got them for $442K each, that seems cheap, and within the $497K Pace budgeted ($37.28 million/75 buses). Looks like the budget is not enough for Metro 45s.

[MetroShadow]

They are combining the Budget Hearing with the 353 restructuring.

[Busjack]

They are combining the Budget Hearing with the 353 restructuring.

I thought that Facebook was a strange place, but here is the official notice.

Hearings combining service cuts with the budget occurred for 2010, but the only thing notable here is that Pace has to treat this as legally being a service cut, even though there is replacement service. I'm sure that the issue of the Riverdale only trips will not come up.

[Next point moved to correct thread]

[Busjack]

I thought that Facebook was a strange place, but here is the official notice.

In fact, the official notice, including of the 353 restructuring was in the back of the budget book.

Oh, the indirection we take to get to the point. :P

[Busjack]

Other things noted from a closer read:

• Apparently the appropriation in 2009 of $40 million in capital for paratransit lapsed, I'm sure due to legislators forgetting it. Thus, we can assume that the recommendations made in 2007 for making it more efficient go by the wayside for another couple of years.
• In 2005, paratransit was supposedly costing and killing CTA to the extent of $54 million, to which one can add about $13 million for Pace. Now, it has doubled, and gets its requirement off the top. Carole Brown sure had a good idea when she complained about it then
• Call and Ride can't be as efficient as I thought if the recovery ratio is 6%. However, I wonder how that compares to, say, formerly running 747 past Wheaton to St. Charles. Or maybe the bad recovery ratio is due to it being a startup.

[BusHunter]

Since several years got their own topic, so for this year's budget.

Since most of us are capital geeks, the notable item is on page 36 (48 of the PDF):

I assume that this is in addition to the 156 diesel buses and 15 OTRs announced with regard to the 2012 budget.

How far does this go in making South's conventional fleet CNG? I have a rough estimate that South needs 85-89 conventional buses, but I haven't kept up with all the 6600s coming in, although 11 2400s are scrap. In any event, it doesn't look like South will be 100% CNG.

BTW: Any idea of the source of the picture of a CNG bus on page 42 (54 of the PDF), other than it looks like an Xcelsior?

Update: Based on BusHunter's previous comments whether the budget shows service expansion, the 5 year capital plan indicates mostly replacement (except for the I-90 project) and on page 44 (56) indicates that the program pretty much peters out after 2014-- out of 243 buses over 5 years, only 42 in the 3 out years.

The 108 buses you quoted I believe I read in the budget were for Paratransits. This Rock Island bus picture really has me stumped. Did Pace take an about face from NABI? With the RTA being the parent agency was the CTA NABI fiasco too much of a caution flag to restrict this bus from a possible Pace purchase? There's a few more questions actually. Like what happened to the up to 416 bus bid from Eldorado National? What are the 13 diesal buses mentioned? As far as the 2012 budget, this year is almost over and I haven't seen any new buses, so I don't know if any are coming this year. The Pace budget for 2013 was released a few days after the funding fight was solved. This saw CTA getting most of the pie, 106 million I believe, and Pace went on the offensive stating that they are mulling over whether they'll have future fare hikes or service cuts. They also stated they could no longer purchase as many buses as they'd like. I wonder if this statement damages the prospect of the 416 buses. As far as next year is concerned, looks like they'll retire the #2400's once and for all and whatever high floors remain. Thinking long term I wonder how the I-90 express corridor is going to turn out? Will they get rid of all 600 routes, in favor of this? If not I don't see how that would be successful. But then again will customers be encouraged to pay double the fare to get a little quicker service. It should be interesting to see what happens.

[Busjack]

The 108 buses you quoted I believe I read in the budget were for Paratransits. This Rock Island bus picture really has me stumped. Did Pace take an about face from NABI? With the RTA being the parent agency was the CTA NABI fiasco too much of a caution flag to restrict this bus from a possible Pace purchase? There's a few more questions actually. Like what happened to the up to 416 bus bid from Eldorado National? What are the 13 diesal buses mentioned? As far as the 2012 budget, this year is almost over and I haven't seen any new buses, so I don't know if any are coming this year. The Pace budget for 2013 was released a few days after the funding fight was solved. This saw CTA getting most of the pie, 106 million I believe, and Pace went on the offensive stating that they are mulling over whether they'll have future fare hikes or service cuts. They also stated they could no longer purchase as many buses as they'd like. I wonder if this statement damages the prospect of the 416 buses. As far as next year is concerned, looks like they'll retire the #2400's once and for all and whatever high floors remain. Thinking long term I wonder how the I-90 express corridor is going to turn out? Will they get rid of all 600 routes, in favor of this? If not I don't see how that would be successful. But then again will customers be encouraged to pay double the fare to get a little quicker service. It should be interesting to see what happens.

I think you are engaged in too much speculation.

• I quoted only the line items for 75 CNGs, 13 Diesels, and 20 OTRs [page 38(50)]. I didn't say anything about paratransits.
• Last year in October, they approved the contract for between 9 and 416 buses, guaranteeing only the 9. Also, they said last year this time that they would start appearing in November of this year, which hasn't happened yet. Again, the numbers I quoted were from the 2012 budget, as subsequently amended, that called for 156 diesels and 15 OTRs.
• The time they had posted minutes about the I-90 project, it was adding to the existing 600s, including making 600 bi-directional (I wonder how that affects 895), adding routes from the Elgin area to either NWTC or Rosemont, and adding feeders from Addison and Palatine to NWTC. (First reference here). Maybe a valid point of speculation is whether 600 will go to OTR.

Now to throw out my conclusions:

• I don't think 606 itself will be altered, because it is basically a local Algonquin Road route, despite a short stretch on the Tollway.
• I figure that between 9 and 416, Pace has accounted for 168 Axess diesels.
• I definitely think you have to deduct the 75 CNGs from any of the 416 Axess diesels that Pace could have taken under the contract, but I think won't.
• Based on the 5 year length of the contract, the 5 year capital plan for 2015 and 2016 indicates only 22 more buses. Thus, to the extent one can take the budget at face value (and you rarely can), the most ElDorado sells under the contract is 190 Axess diesels. Maybe, if you get 2017 into that contract, 210. Certainly not the 65 to 95 max per year as indicated in the requisition.
• I noted above that NF doing a demonstration, as well as the budgeted amount, tempered my previous conclusions about NABI having an inside track peddling the 45C. As I noted way back with ElDorado demonstrating Pace 2010 to Omaha and then Pace, I don't understand how that part of the business works. Pace eventually picked ElDorado, but after a competitive procurement and ElDorado looking cheap at $404K a bus. I now assume that there will be a competitive procurement for the 75 CNGs.
• I'm also rethinking my prior thoughts about South's fleet being replaced. Maybe they keep their 6162 series buses until the CNGs show up, and the Waukegan 2400s get replaced in another manner.

[BusHunter]

[*]I'm also rethinking my prior thoughts about South's fleet being replaced. Maybe they keep their 6162 series buses until the CNGs show up, and the Waukegan 2400s get replaced in another manner.

With what I have on the Pace roster (96 South buses) the 75 CNG's will not replace all of South's fleet. If 168 Axess' are indeed still coming, I don't know if they would come to South anymore, if so they would have to ship them right back out when the CNG's arrived. The Axess' may end up at Northwest and West. I doubt NW will ever see NABI's there, which makes a good case to send Axess' there. Waukegan and South can always depend on West transfers (NABI's) to wipe out there fleets of older buses. But South would probably only get enough to balance out the 20 extra left over from a CNG delivery next year. This way they could retire #2400's now and the CNG's would just displace there NABi's. That's one way they could get rid of the older buses now versus later.

[Busjack]

On a related topic (since it is part of the Pace budget) is this Daily Herald column on the ineffective head of the RTA complaining about the cost of paratransit, and noting that it comes off the top, but not doing anything about it.

Not mentioned:

• At least in the suburbs, coverage far exceeds the federally mandated 3/4 mile from a fixed route when a fixed route is operating.
• While the lack of capital is mentioned, not mentioned is that state law mandated a study of how to make it more efficient, which came to conclusions about sharing more rides and using it as a feeder to other accessible services, none of which has been done.

[Busjack]

With what I have on the Pace roster (96 South buses) the 75 CNG's will not replace all of South's fleet. If 168 Axess' are indeed still coming, I don't know if they would come to South anymore, if so they would have to ship them right back out when the CNG's arrived. The Axess' may end up at Northwest and West. I doubt NW will ever see NABI's there, which makes a good case to send Axess' there. Waukegan and South can always depend on West transfers (NABI's) to wipe out there fleets of older buses. But South would probably only get enough to balance out the 20 extra left over from a CNG delivery next year. This way they could retire #2400's now and the CNG's would just displace there NABi's. That's one way they could get rid of the older buses now versus later.

That's about what I figure.

But do your 96 include the 9 or so leased OTRs? Or just NABIs?

[BusHunter]

That's about what I figure.

But do your 96 include the 9 or so leased OTRs? Or just NABIs?

Up to #6917, all equipment I know of is included.

[Busjack]

Up to #6917, all equipment I know of is included.

Then you have to add 6918 and 6919.

However, then you have to take off 9 for the OTR replacements, leaving a NABI fleet 89. So, we are in the same ballpark.

[BusHunter]

Then you have to add 6918 and 6919.

However, then you have to take off 9 for the OTR replacements, leaving a NABI fleet 89. So, we are in the same ballpark.

Didn't know about those. Maybe the 11 #2400 buses that got retired this year are a direct result of the extra OTR's arriving. So maybe the NABI count is uneffected.

[Busjack]

Didn't know about those. Maybe the 11 #2400 buses that got retired this year are a direct result of the extra OTR's arriving. So maybe the NABI count is uneffected.

There might be some effect from 877 and 888 now appearing to be all OTRs, instead of some NABIs (see below, with both on 877). However, it is more likely that the number of 6600s (other than 6653-6660, which South always had) is because of losing half of the 2400s.

[Busjack]

As far as the 2012 budget, this year is almost over and I haven't seen any new buses, so I don't know if any are coming this year....

To make this even murkier, the September Minutes say:

Pace begins to take delivery on sixty-two new diesel buses over the next three months. He

expects delivery to be complete by Christmas.

Doesn't mention anything about the approximately another 94 mentioned in connection with the 2012 budget

To throw a little more confusion on the hibachi:

Director Wells asked where the new buses would be placed. Ms. Metzger said that the oldest

buses in the fleet would be removed and buses would be moved around. She said that the South

garage does not have the oldest buses in the fleet but all buses will be evaluated as to where they

should be placed. Mr. Ross added that there are fourteen buses in the fleet which are twenty

years old. Ms. Metzger said that it is cyclical as to which garage has the oldest buses.

Chairman Kwasneski asked what the schedule was for the CNG buses. Mr. Ross responded that

the CNG project at South Division will be finished before July of 2014. The Chairman said it

was important to have firm timeframes for the project and Mr. Ross agreed.

[BusHunter]

They didn't say from whom these buses are from. (most likely Eldo national) At least they did mention 14 twenty year old buses. I'm assuming that's what's left of the high floors. As far as who gets them it could be North, NS or South based on where the oldest buses are. I'd say South would be the leading candidate, but there going to get the CNG's. If the 94 you mention do show up in 2013, they'll most likely go to SW, West or NW as they will have the oldest buses then.

[Busjack]

As far as who gets them it could be North, NS or South based on where the oldest buses are. I'd say South would be the leading candidate, but there going to get the CNG's. If the 94 you mention do show up in 2013, they'll most likely go to SW, West or NW as they will have the oldest buses then.

As far as where any Axesses (sp?) go, I think we can rely on Metzger's statement "that the oldest buses in the fleet would be removed and buses would be moved around," and especially "moved around" as indicating that they don't know.

I would still bank on "moved around" with regard to most of North Division.

[MetroShadow]

Other things noted from a closer read:

• Call and Ride can't be as efficient as I thought if the recovery ratio is 6%. However, I wonder how that compares to, say, formerly running 747 past Wheaton to St. Charles. Or maybe the bad recovery ratio is due to it being a startup.

Demand Response Routes (such as the call-and-rides) really shouldn't be held to those farebox standards (to my knowledge, they're somewhat antiquated to start with). I would attest the low ratio to the fact that they are startups, plus the discrepancy in recovery ratio's and it's assessment.

[mkohut]

I took a small look at Pace Budget.I do see some waste in it.

Why pay another consulted do work? Its in the administrative part of the budget.

Just do and forgot wasteing money.