Return of the 11 & 31 Bus

[Juniorz]

The 31 will be ok. For the agency to continue to invest in the pilot for another year shows that the #31 has the potential to return on a permanent basis.

A number of factors could have contributed to the #11 pilot failure: Lack of promotion, hours of operation, the lack of awareness, a changing demographic within the corridor, the fact that 2012 ridership data was used to assume that those hours of operation would justify the 1,500 riders needed for the segment stay permanent.

Before the pilots launched, i assumed that the 11 would stand a better chance than the 31, but as the statistics revealed, it was quite the opposite and my opinion changed along the way.

  

[Busjack]

1 hour ago, Juniorz said:

The 31 will be ok. For the agency to continue to invest in the pilot for another year shows that the #31 has the potential to return on a permanent basis.

A number of factors could have contributed to the #11 pilot failure: Lack of promotion, hours of operation, the lack of awareness, a changing demographic within the corridor, the fact that 2012 ridership data was used to assume that those hours of operation would justify the 1,500 riders needed for the segment stay permanent.

Before the pilots launched, i assumed that the 11 would stand a better chance than the 31, but as the statistics revealed, it was quite the opposite and my opinion changed along the way.

  

Some of your reasons are fallacous. For instance, the 1500 was based on CTA's average productivity per sservice hour, not what might have been ridership 5 years ago (although I did mention that that number may have ind9icated thet Claypool killed existing ridership). Since the number was based on productivity  per service hour, extending service hours would not have helped (unless you folks are suggesting a rush hour only route). Also it was promoted--you posted the literature-1But the marginal riders the thought were there weren't, at least by a factor of two.

[BusHunter]

19 hours ago, jajuan said:

I wouldn't be so quick to write off the #31 because that one is surprisingly showing growth toward its performance goal at a faster clip than the #11 was hoped to do. Despite those few reports from a few of just a handful being on the bus when they rode on the #31, it is still demonstrably benefiting from IIT students and a few other local passengers other than the main senior target audience. So why wreck service on the #35 running buses on Archer, when the #31 is showing credible progress on its own merits? As for others' questions about why the #31 doesn't go to the beach, anyone who has 31st Beach as their destination aren't going to wait 30 minutes for the #31 when the #35 is still the quicker option even with needing to get off at 33rd/Rhodes and take the short walk over to the beach since the #35 service to 31st Street Beach is weekends/holidays only during the summer season. The #31 works better for the other destinations that those riders are using it for.

Just saying the west end of #35 is just as light as #31. Why not try it out? It matches on ridership. Why have a #35 serve those areas into the night? The #31 could maybe get 15 minute intervals and we would see what will happen. Running the #31 with such high intervals seems to hurt ridership in my opinion its not much better than the #11 setup.

[Juniorz]

30 minutes ago, Busjack said:

Some of your reasons are fallacous. For instance, the 1500 was based on CTA's average productivity per sservice hour, not what might have been ridership 5 years ago (although I did mention that that number may have ind9icated thet Claypool killed existing ridership). Since the number was based on productivity  per service hour, extending service hours would not have helped (unless you folks are suggesting a rush hour only route). Also it was promoted--you posted the literature-1But the marginal riders the thought were there weren't, at least by a factor of two.

To come up with a "magical" number of 1,500, there must have been some data laying around that would suggest that the customer base was there. 

So there shouldn't be anything "fallacous" stated.

[Busjack]

1 minute ago, Juniorz said:

To come up with a "magical" number of 1,500, there must have been some data laying around that would suggest that the customer base was there. 

...

I suppose that they wouldn't have bothered if they knew there were only 500 riders.

However, you can go back in this topic to find that the number was based on average productivity per service hour---not your suppositions,

[jajuan]

2 hours ago, BusHunter said:

Just saying the west end of #35 is just as light as #31. Why not try it out? It matches on ridership. Why have a #35 serve those areas into the night? The #31 could maybe get 15 minute intervals and we would see what will happen. Running the #31 with such high intervals seems to hurt ridership in my opinion its not much better than the #11 setup.

You're forgetting though that the #31 doesn't have to meet as high a passenger threshold as the #11 extension was setup to meet. It was setup to be a relatively light route since it was a light route when it was axed 20 years ago. So the interval isn't hurting it as much as you're reading into it. Also the 30 minute headway is actually a lot better than the one hour headway at its elimination back in the 1990s. As a matter of fact, some of us argued back when it was still a concept, that if they were going to bring it back that maybe a 30 minute minimum headway would probably be proper if they wanted to see any return make it past a test stage. 

[BusHunter]

2 hours ago, jajuan said:

You're forgetting though that the #31 doesn't have to meet as high a passenger threshold as the #11 extension was setup to meet. It was setup to be a relatively light route since it was a light route when it was axed 20 years ago. So the interval isn't hurting it as much as you're reading into it. Also the 30 minute headway is actually a lot better than the one hour headway at its elimination back in the 1990s. As a matter of fact, some of us argued back when it was still a concept, that if they were going to bring it back that maybe a 30 minute minimum headway would probably be proper if they wanted to see any return make it past a test stage. 

I tell you this #11 is not doing that good. When a bus pulls up to fullerton Red line and no one gets on or off that's a red herring in my opinion. I guess no one wants to go to Whole Foods.

From what i see, I can't deny the #11 ridership is weak, it's just a matter of how strong the #31 ridership is. I just can't imagine the #31 beating the #11. WTH!!!

[Juniorz]

4 hours ago, Busjack said:

I suppose that they wouldn't have bothered if they knew there were only 500 riders.

However, you can go back in this topic to find that the number was based on average productivity per service hour---not your suppositions,

Never superstitious, just factual statistics.......

[jajuan]

1 hour ago, BusHunter said:

I tell you this #11 is not doing that good. When a bus pulls up to fullerton Red line and no one gets on or off that's a red herring in my opinion. I guess no one wants to go to Whole Foods.

From what i see, I can't deny the #11 ridership is weak, it's just a matter of how strong the #31 ridership is. I just can't imagine the #31 beating the #11. WTH!!!

One part of it I'm sure is the higher number of folks on the north side in those neighborhoods the #11 runs through who are more likely to click for an Uber or Lyft through their cell phones than on the south side in general added in to the #31 seemingly also getting some kind of benefit of IIT students who might be going to the Mariano's or running other errands along 31st Street. 

[Busjack]

12 hours ago, Juniorz said:

Never superstitious, just factual statistics.......

Nobody said anything about superstitious, or suppositories, either.

[Busjack]

11 hours ago, jajuan said:

#31 seemingly also getting some kind of benefit of IIT students who might be going to the Mariano's or running other errands along 31st Street. 

One would think they would go to the new one on 38th than go crosstown.

[jajuan]

8 hours ago, Busjack said:

One would think they would go to the new one on 38th than go crosstown.

Perhaps, but I've never known very many IIT students to go south of 35th Street even when I went there. 

[Juniorz]

Here's a detailed explanation about the pilot's end.

http://www.transitchicago.com/11pilot/

[Busjack]

2 hours ago, Juniorz said:

Here's a detailed explanation about the pilot's end.

http://www.transitchicago.com/11pilot/

At least they explained "why they didn't run morning rush hour."

5 hours ago, jajuan said:

Perhaps, but I've never known very many IIT students to go south of 35th Street even when I went there. 

I didn't find anything direct on this, but most sources indicate the neighborhood changed once Ida B. Wells was gone. I suppose it is similar to Jewel going into 61st and Cottage.

[jajuan]

On 8/11/2017 at 10:37 PM, Busjack said:

At least they explained "why they didn't run morning rush hour."

I didn't find anything direct on this, but most sources indicate the neighborhood changed once Ida B. Wells was gone. I suppose it is similar to Jewel going into 61st and Cottage.

True the neighborhood has changed, but from my observations of changing neighborhoods it takes time to change the perception especially when the overall dynamics have not changed. Yeah Ida B Wells is gone, but the perception of crime south of campus where it once stood has not. When I visit my old alma mater, most students there are still going north and west of campus on their free time. Those heading south of 35th, are still matching close to what I observed when I went there. 

[BusHunter]

On 8/11/2017 at 10:37 PM, Busjack said:

At least they explained "why they didn't run morning rush hour."

I didn't find anything direct on this, but most sources indicate the neighborhood changed once Ida B. Wells was gone. I suppose it is similar to Jewel going into 61st and Cottage.

Yeah but they anticipate that none of those 1000 riders would do the reverse commute home.  (Which is where it failed) no one is going to go one way in the morning and not come back the same way. Really it boils down to who rode the #11 south of leland. Older people or younger. From what I saw I just saw young people riding. Perhaps if they could have served Lincoln Park Zoo directly they may have tapped into something

 

[Busjack]

26 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Really it boils down to who rode the #11 south of leland. Older people or younger. From what I saw I just saw young people riding.

That's all CTA was marketing to, but apparently 1000/day short. But it was originally the elderly and disabled who were complaining when the bus was canceled the first time.

[jajuan]

30 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Yeah but they anticipate that none of those 1000 riders would do the reverse commute home.  (Which is where it failed) no one is going to go one way in the morning and not come back the same way. Really it boils down to who rode the #11 south of leland. Older people or younger. From what I saw I just saw young people riding. Perhaps if they could have served Lincoln Park Zoo directly they may have tapped into something

 

 

2 minutes ago, Busjack said:

That's all CTA was marketing to, but apparently 1000/day short. But it was originally the elderly and disabled who were complaining when the bus was canceled the first time.

Yes both of your posts get down to it being a marketing problem. However, Lincoln Park Zoo was advertised as one of the spots highlighted as a destination on the #11 extension materials both from CTA and the community groups who put out materials. And Lincoln Park Zoo is only about a five minute walk away if you get off at the Lincoln/Webster stop. So on that front it boils down to how many being willing to make that fairly short walk. The fact that the extension is getting cancelled says not very many.

[BusHunter]

19 minutes ago, jajuan said:

 

Yes both of your posts get down to it being a marketing problem. However, Lincoln Park Zoo was advertised as one of the spots highlighted as a destination on the #11 extension materials both from CTA and the community groups who put out materials. And Lincoln Park Zoo is only about a five minute walk away if you get off at the Lincoln/Webster stop. So on that front it boils down to how many being willing to make that fairly short walk. The fact that the extension is getting cancelled says not very many.

Yeah but you have so many great options in front of it. The #151 the #22 the #36. Why walk further and get 20 minute service. They needed a short loop terminus via Lincoln Park west and Stockton drive with a possible layover on Webster between the two. List the bus as destination zoo. How many riders did L' elephant get? You could tap into that market between the Fullerton red line and the zoo. Now ask yourself what does the #151 #22 #156 and #36 not do. Link with a subway. Now you have a competitive zoo to "l" feeder.

[jajuan]

1 hour ago, BusHunter said:

Yeah but you have so many great options in front of it. The #151 the #22 the #36. Why walk further and get 20 minute service. They needed a short loop terminus via Lincoln Park west and Stockton drive with a possible layover on Webster between the two. List the bus as destination zoo. How many riders did L' elephant get? You could tap into that market between the Fullerton red line and the zoo. Now ask yourself what does the #151 #22 #156 and #36 not do. Link with a subway. Now you have a competitive zoo to "l" feeder.

Yeah that's true. But I was looking at it as a devil's advocate wanting to avoid a crowded bus point of view as the #22, #36, #151 and #156 can have heavy loads. And I'll flesh your subway point out to mean that the routes you listed don't link with a rapid transit station near the zoo since they all do so downtown. But folks are less likely to leave the train downtown to fight traffic on one of these buses, though folks can leave the Red Line at Chicago or Division and finish a short ride to the zoo on the #36. 

[Busjack]

3 hours ago, BusHunter said:

Yeah but you have so many great options in front of it. The #151 the #22 the #36

Which reinforces CTA's point that there is adequate alternative service; just take a cross town bus to Sheridan or Broadway, which doesn't involve all the 6-way traffic lights on Lincoln. In any event  that wouldn't have generated the 1000 additional rides needed about every day.

[BusHunter]

12 hours ago, jajuan said:

Yeah that's true. But I was looking at it as a devil's advocate wanting to avoid a crowded bus point of view as the #22, #36, #151 and #156 can have heavy loads. And I'll flesh your subway point out to mean that the routes you listed don't link with a rapid transit station near the zoo since they all do so downtown. But folks are less likely to leave the train downtown to fight traffic on one of these buses, though folks can leave the Red Line at Chicago or Division and finish a short ride to the zoo on the #36. 

Yeah that's actually what I would suggest going to Clark division on a #22 or #36 as I've done it but that only benefits sb riders not nb. 

[artthouwill]

On 8/11/2017 at 8:25 AM, Busjack said:

One would think they would go to the new one on 38th than go crosstown.

Not gentrified  nor safe enough yet.  Also the one on Ashland  is a one seat ride with little walking compared to  38th which had either  a longer walk or requires a transfer.

[jajuan]

13 hours ago, BusHunter said:

Yeah that's actually what I would suggest going to Clark division on a #22 or #36 as I've done it but that only benefits sb riders not nb. 

No it benefits both directions since folks do have to get back home from the zoo, but I think it's more accurate to say it benefits riders who are going to the zoo from the west and south areas of the city and nearby suburbs than it would north side riders or those from Evanston, Skokie and Wilmette when looking mainly at foks using just the CTA to get there, which I think may have been the point you were looking to get to and make.

[BusHunter]

yes, that's my point by the time you did all that you could walk to Fullerton Red line, best way to go west, ride a #73 to Armitage brown line. I can see why they had the #74A.