sw4400 Posted February 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not much change at last check, but it is a week away. I personally hope it isn't as bad as it looks. Someone posted a map of the isobars from the Blizzard of 2011, and this early forecast looks very similiar to that one. Stay tuned, folks... Latest isobar forecast(European Model) Groundhog Blizzard isobar forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted February 15, 2013 Report Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not much change at last check, but it is a week away. I personally hope it isn't as bad as it looks. Someone posted a map of the isobars from the Blizzard of 2011, and this early forecast looks very similiar to that one. Stay tuned, folks... Latest isobar forecast(European Model) Groundhog Blizzard isobar forecast My other point was that if it does, then you are going to have to decide whether you go to work. CTA hasn't figured out a way to stop it from snowing, and you certainly have not. This isn't a Rick DiMaio community college class on meteorology, but a transit discussion board. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted February 15, 2013 Report Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not much change at last check, but it is a week away. I personally hope it isn't as bad as it looks. Someone posted a map of the isobars from the Blizzard of 2011, and this early forecast looks very similiar to that one. Stay tuned, folks... Latest isobar forecast(European Model) Groundhog Blizzard isobar forecast And AccuWeather update as of 1 PM is chance for a tad over 4 inches of snow next Thursday night into very early Friday morning with whatever snow that may or may not fall ending by sunrise that Friday. Again where does 18-20 inches come in? And tell me you don't expect that weather map post on Facebook of all places to actually change. That post will stay up and any updates Mr Skilling wishes to give gets done in an entirely different post. And again that's one week away. A lot can happen between now and then so what's with the unnecessary alarm bells?It's not like that's the first big snowstorm (and that's a VERY BIG emphasis on IF it happens) this city or CTA has seen. And it won't be the last, so no point in worry about acts of nature and forces of God that none of us has any control over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetroShadow Posted February 21, 2013 Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 If anything, park your cars at Howard or Cumberland if you're that paranoid about the forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted February 21, 2013 Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 If anything, park your cars at Howard or Cumberland if you're that paranoid about the forecast. Especially if you don't live anywhere near there. I'll wait until tomorrow, but Bill Bellis said "this will not be Snowmageddon Part 2." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw4400 Posted December 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2013 Been monitoring Skilling's forecasts via Facebook, and the last few European Models look impressive enough that a double digit snowstorm might be coming this weekend. Both models, though kinda hard to read with all the numbers closely jumbled together, look like 10-14" is likely here. Wonder what the CTA will do with the Lake Shore routes at that point and what impact will that have on the Brown, Pink and Yellow Lines, where portions of them are running on grade level... will there be an impact there? European Snow Model(this is the one used to predict the Groundhog Blizzard of 2011) It is still early, but three different European Models forecast about the same totals with very little difference according to Skilling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted December 17, 2013 Report Share Posted December 17, 2013 Especially if you don't live anywhere near there. I'll wait until tomorrow, but Bill Bellis said "this will not be Snowmageddon Part 2." Don't get ready to hunker down for another Snowmageddon just yet. All the local meteorologists acknowledge a similar computer model given by Mr. Skilling but they also make it clear that despite the one model saying we get walloped by snow, they can't say for sure we will because they got several other models that show we get accumulating snow but not anything close to a foot or more that the double digit model suggests. All they can say for sure right now is we're likely to get another accumulating snow over the course of the weekend. If everybody hit the panic button every time one computer model showed a bad storm, we'd be in a constant state of readying for storms to the point of folks not taking weather warnings seriously. Imagine what that does in areas that are in Tornado Alley or prone to the possibilities of hurricanes. So fortunately the meteorologists, including Mr. Skilling, rely on much more than just one computer model to back up their forecasts before giving any type of weather warning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw4400 Posted December 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2013 Don't get ready to hunker down for another Snowmageddon just yet. It's several days out, and anything can change, but many Meteorlogoists say the European Model is the most reliable out of the variable models they use to determine futurecasts. While this storm is at present, predicted to be big, I wouldn't call it "Snowmageddon"(that would be a 19-22" or greater total in my mind), but this would be a "Snowtastrophe", to make up a "Snow" reference for storms with big totals. The most this might drop, if it holds true, looks to be 10-14". I just wonder if the CTA will implement a plan for the LSD bus routes, or hold in all Artics and use 40' buses during the storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted December 17, 2013 Report Share Posted December 17, 2013 It's several days out, and anything can change, but many Meteorlogoists say the European Model is the most reliable out of the variable models they use to determine futurecasts. While this storm is at present, predicted to be big, I wouldn't call it "Snowmageddon"(that would be a 19-22" or greater total in my mind), but this would be a "Snowtastrophe", to make up a "Snow" reference for storms with big totals. The most this might drop, if it holds true, looks to be 10-14". I just wonder if the CTA will implement a plan for the LSD bus routes, or hold in all Artics and use 40' buses during the storm. Reliable or not, it still stands that any reputable meteorologist, like any other credible scientist, relies on more than just one model upon which to construct a forecast. And most of the weather folks right now don't even want to put a number on any snow that comes this weekend. The farthest any of them want to go is to say it's likely going to snow as to how much they're not yet ready to say because the models are all in conflict. So again, let's not hit any panic buttons until we get to say Thursday or Friday when weekend forecasts are quite a bit more reliable than they are right now on a Tuesday evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw4400 Posted December 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2013 Well snow or mixed precip/snow, it definitely will be considerable. Still not yet certain which way it'll fall, but NWS Chicago has mentioned that a significant precip event here is high... all we can do is see how it'll fall. This'll be a messy wintry weekend one way or the other... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetroShadow Posted December 18, 2013 Report Share Posted December 18, 2013 Considering we live in Chicago, I don't take heed of potentially dangerous weather until at least 48 hours in advance. You can make a forecast 7-14 days out, but it doesn't do us any good if you predict 90 inches of snow and you end up with .09" in the end.* *same for vice-versa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted December 18, 2013 Report Share Posted December 18, 2013 Considering we live in Chicago, I don't take heed of potentially dangerous weather until at least 48 hours in advance. You can make a forecast 7-14 days out, but it doesn't do us any good if you predict 90 inches of snow and you end up with .09" in the end.* *same for vice-versa. Steve Sanders and Skilling agreed on "wait and see, this is too far out" at noon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw4400 Posted December 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2013 Steve Sanders and Skilling agreed on "wait and see, this is too far out" at noon. Yeah, a new Euro model shows about 2-4" here now... but it did look pretty formidable the past few days. If it did hold up, we would've had a white Christmas and then some... While the snow is light, I wonder about the freezing rain threat. That could make for an interesting commute driving or walking if even we get a quarter or half inch of ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw4400 Posted December 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2013 Considering we live in Chicago, I don't take heed of potentially dangerous weather until at least 48 hours in advance. You can make a forecast 7-14 days out, but it doesn't do us any good if you predict 90 inches of snow and you end up with .09" in the end.* *same for vice-versa. It was amazing how they accurately predicted the Groundhog Blizzard two weeks in advance, though, Metro Shadow. 19-23" accurate to a "T". Amazing meteorology right there. 99% of the time, if a big weather system is predicted over a week out, it'll moderate either for the better, or for the worst. Then there's that 1% of the time where a big weather system like the Groundhog Blizzard is predicted two weeks ahead of target date(s) and it holds true to form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetroShadow Posted December 18, 2013 Report Share Posted December 18, 2013 It was amazing how they accurately predicted the Groundhog Blizzard two weeks in advance, though, Metro Shadow. 19-23" accurate to a "T". Amazing meteorology right there. 99% of the time, if a big weather system is predicted over a week out, it'll moderate either for the better, or for the worst. Then there's that 1% of the time where a big weather system like the Groundhog Blizzard is predicted two weeks ahead of target date(s) and it holds true to form. Notwithstanding. They didn't call the 99 Ice Storm correctly at all, and we had a school shutdown as a result. The issue here is that you live in Chicago, where it's a 50/50 shot of a forecast either will be right, or just wrong. Same applies to summer weather -- if the forecast says we'll get hit hard by a major storm, and if by chance that storm moves north, then that's as far as it gets. Sadly, this isn't California where it's 60 degrees all the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted December 18, 2013 Report Share Posted December 18, 2013 Steve Sanders and Skilling agreed on "wait and see, this is too far out" at noon. As did Mike Caplan and Jerry Taft from ABC7 Eyewitness News (yes 'Eyewitness' is part of their news broadcast name again) throughout the day yesterday. And that was my point yesterday that the weathermen were not ready to put a number on the weekend snowfall totals yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted December 20, 2013 Report Share Posted December 20, 2013 While backing off on predicting the number of inches, at least Skilling made Jimmy Kimmel's "This Year in Unnecessary Censorship." Something about a "c[bleep] shaped storm." YouTube 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw4400 Posted January 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2014 Guess this is quite a day for CTA Equipment... I'll tally the alert totals here to show where the most have/are occurring... Big Chill: 1/6/14-1/7/14 Red Line: 11 Blue Line: 8 Purple Line: 6 Brown Line: 5 Green Line: 5 Yellow Line: 3 Orange Line: 2 Pink Line: 0(*knocks on wood*) Things might be settling at this time. Alerts will continue to be posted as seen on the Rail Service Alerts thread as well as this table will be updated if anymore alerts arise throughout tonight. Will these issues linger into tomorrow remains to be seen.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTRSP1900-CTA3200 Posted January 7, 2014 Report Share Posted January 7, 2014 This morning my flight home to O'Hare got canceled, so I was on Twitter watching the CTA. I noted many door problems, a suspension of Purple Line service, and later a delay on the Green Line at Harlem, most likely because of switch problems. I'm hoping tomorrow will be better for the CTA, and that I can actually get home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted January 7, 2014 Report Share Posted January 7, 2014 Tonight at 9pm I overheard on the radio that they had 18 bus tows in wait. There going to be towing late tonight. They only have four wreckers AFAIK. This morning they were discussing bringing out parts and swapping them on a broke down bus outside Jeff Pk that had an air leak. Never heard that before, but that's one way to save another tow from happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw4400 Posted January 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2014 What a day!!! I never logged so many Rail Alerts in one 24-hr period before!!! Switches freezing, equipment shortages, train mechanical issues and door issues. Red Line seems to be on top with eight delays today. Besides the frozen switches, I wonder how the mechanical and door issues broke down between trains of 2600's and 5000's. Was it pretty much even across the board, or was one breaking down more than the other? Only an insider who has a source at Howard or 98th Yard will know for sure, I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted January 8, 2014 Report Share Posted January 8, 2014 I was on #2853 on the blue line and three out of the four doors were cut out. So the train stopped at Damen and everyone's like how come the doors are not opening. The operator came over and one door was so screwed up it could not be run manually. He finally tried the second door and got it to work. He cut it back out and no doors opened at Western or California. That was one messed up railcar!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw4400 Posted January 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2014 Maybe 1999 was worse than this, but I wasn't a big transit enthusiast at that time. This has been thus far the biggest period of Rail Service Alerts in a two day spread due to extreme cold and snow that I've ever seen. Personally, Feb. 1-2, 2011 I thought would've been the worst for CTA "L" Service because of the 23" of snow we got with drifts into the 4'-5' range. They held there own pretty well then... the bitter cold with temps in the -10 to -15 range with wind chills of -40 to -50 being a principal reason for the rail issues threw me. I know that there was snow a few days prior and it was blowing and drifting, but it didn't cause problems then and was nowhere near the totals of the 2011 Blizzard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted January 8, 2014 Report Share Posted January 8, 2014 Well if you add the three storms we had together, 4.8" , 8" and 10.9" you get 22" on the ground. With the high winds thanks to the polar vortex that didn't help matters. The roads and rails were difficult to clear and any icing of the third rail is bad news. The roads were about the worst I have seen them and that doesn't help with traffic conditions. The #5000's I've seen have done better than the #2600's. In fact a door has been cut out of each #2600 consist I have been on for the past three days. Yesterday #2671 was cut out and I forget the sunday car. Boy those Np buses are really dirty/nasty. Most you can't even read the bus number. I was looking at a bus washing pit they were installing at kedzie. It goes down on both ends like a hammock and the water runs down into the pit by gravity into a sewer pipe. That sounds really smart. That might eliminate an icicle effect at the garage. Too bad they couldn't get those into the open air garages like np or fg. Maybe they could have some cleaner buses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted January 8, 2014 Report Share Posted January 8, 2014 Maybe 1999 was worse than this, but I wasn't a big transit enthusiast at that time. This has been thus far the biggest period of Rail Service Alerts in a two day spread due to extreme cold and snow that I've ever seen. ... Nobody published any alerts when buses were stranded in the street in the 1967, 1979, and 2011 snow storms. In addition, nobody brings up Krambles's book's stories about in the 1979 storm, the Lake-Dan Ryan had most of its equipment out of service, due to the undercar equipment being damaged by the high snow and salt, and the Skokie Swift was completely impassible for a couple of weeks. Not a couple of hours. It sure is cold out there, but again not like in 1979, when it was reported that 2 feet of snow stayed encrusted on the tracks. It appears that being fixated on having to copy "service is being restored" alerts, someone has lost all perspective. Maybe he should start posting floodwatch warnings for the weekend. In the meantime, Kevin O'Neil points out that there are CTA Tweets for those who need them. They seem adequately archived there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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