The Next CTA Buses Circa 2012

[geneking7320]

In around 5 more years the CTA should be looking at replacing the 6400's [Novabus LF]. Will they purchase buses with the engine in the same position as the Novas or with the engine in the same position as the New Flyers and NABIs? The Novas seat 37 passengers vs 38 on the New Flyers. If one divides the 484 non-seats [1 for each Novabus] by 37 you get 13.x. That is, it takes 13 more Novas to seat the riders on 484 New Flyers [with 38 seats per bus].

[MetroShadow]

For the exception of the New Flyers and maybe the NABIs, I wasn't too thrilled at the NOVA's, so whatever they purchase in 4-5 years, they sure better pick someone who's dependable and has a design which is more..."transit-ish."

My personal picks are the Gilligs and Orions.

[Busjack]

I don't think they get something like the Novas, because Nova is no longer in the market, also there are no Orion VIs. Van Hool has buses with the engines behind the operator, but there seems little point to that, except in an articulated.

Basically, New Flyer and Orion are the only big players left, and both have conventional engine placement. Same could be said for NABI and Gillig, except that they don't seem to be in the competition for CTA business at the moment.

Also, you have to consider what would replace the 6000s before you even get to the 6400s. Given life extending rehabs and the like, I doubt that the 6400s would be ripe for replacement until maybe after 2015 or 2017. The newest are from 2002. Also, CTA is in hock for having sold bonds in anticipation of federal grants to pay for the New Flyer options and the Blue Line rehab.

Finally, one would have to consider that in the time frame, hybrids or some other engine technology might become feasible over the knee jerk purchase of diesels. That could also affect engine placement.

[BusExpert32]

This topic is too farfetched. 2012= retirement of the 6400s? Not happening. First off, the Novas are the first(or second?) CTA bus purchased that will have definitely a couple more years left before retirement than let's say of the 15-17 years of life for the 5300s/4400s. Secondly, the 6400s are low-floor and the CTA never retired a low floor bus type yet (5800s first, 6400s second), so no one can really assume anything by looking back at previous and current retirements because the high floor-low floor plays into this, or maybe the enhanced technology of producing buses in the 21st Century. Now let's remember the delivery of the 6400s was in the years 2000-2002, so determining their retirement in 2007 would be quite farfetched depending on the facts stated above.

[sw4400]

This topic is too farfetched. 2012= retirement of the 6400s? Not happening. First off, the Novas are the first(or second?) CTA bus purchased that will have definitely a couple more years left before retirement than let's say of the 15-17 years of life for the 5300s/4400s. Secondly, the 6400s are low-floor and the CTA never retired a low floor bus type yet (5800s first, 6400s second), so no one can really assume anything by looking back at previous and current retirements because the high floor-low floor plays into this, or maybe the enhanced technology of producing buses in the 21st Century. Now let's remember the delivery of the 6400s was in the years 2000-2002, so determining their retirement in 2007 would be quite farfetched depending on the facts stated above.

I must agree, BusExpert32. The estimated retirement for the NOVAs should begin around 2019(18th yr. of service life). 2011-2012 we could see the rehab of the NOVAs. Around 2013, the Flxibles(6000-Series) should be retired, thus most likely requiring the CTA to procure a new order of buses to replace them. If the Hybrid DE40LF's work well, look for the CTA to procure around 330 of them to replace these buses(either all GM/Allison models, ISE-Thundervolts, or a equal mix of both: 165 each).

[rmadisonwi]

In around 5 more years the CTA should be looking at replacing the 6400's [Novabus LF]. Will they purchase buses with the engine in the same position as the Novas or with the engine in the same position as the New Flyers and NABIs? The Novas seat 37 passengers vs 38 on the New Flyers. If one divides the 484 non-seats [1 for each Novabus] by 37 you get 13.x. That is, it takes 13 more Novas to seat the riders on 484 New Flyers [with 38 seats per bus].

As I understand it, even Nova is doing away with their weird engine placement in future versions of the LFS, including their artic.

Besides, who said we have to wait until 2012 to get a new bus type? We could get something sooner. Much sooner.

[Guest]

I must agree, BusExpert32. The estimated retirement for the NOVAs should begin around 2019(18th yr. of service life). 2011-2012 we could see the rehab of the NOVAs. Around 2013, the Flxibles(6000-Series) should be retired, thus most likely requiring the CTA to procure a new order of buses to replace them. If the Hybrid DE40LF's work well, look for the CTA to procure around 330 of them to replace these buses(either all GM/Allison models, ISE-Thundervolts, or a equal mix of both: 165 each).

Or maybe we could some new players in the bus manufacturing business. I would like to see heavy truck manufacturers such as Kenworth which made buses and trolley coaches in the 50s. Seattle had a fleet of them being that Kenworth is based in Seattle. Or possibly MCI (Motor Coach Industries) moving into the transit bus market to compete with New Flyer. NewFlyer looks to be the dominant bus builder right now but who knows in a few years as manufacturers come and go. Whatever the bus or who builds it one thing is for sure the low floor design is here to stay, Ughhh!!!

[Busjack]

As I understand it, even Nova is doing away with their weird engine placement in future versions of the LFS, including their artic.

Besides, who said we have to wait until 2012 to get a new bus type? We could get something sooner. Much sooner.

If we believe the presentation used in support of exercising Options 3 and 4, no. Also, if we assume that Options 3 and 4 are for the same model of buses as 1000-1629. Option 4 doesn't run out until 2009. There would have to be another request for bids that would take 6 months, and then some way to fund the replacement of the 6000s. That presentation implies that it hasn't been found yet, saying that there will still be 400 14 year old buses to replace. If those funds are found, then maybe there would be a procurement in 2010.

Of course, as previously mentioned, if doomsday or anything else like it happens, there would be no need for those 400 buses.

There is also the "if we believe" condition. Since we don't believe the earlier Bus Tracker press materials, is there any inside information to put doubt on the above timeline? Or that New Flyer is supplying redesigned buses on the preexisting contract?

[geneking7320]

This topic is too farfetched. 2012= retirement of the 6400s? Not happening. First off, the Novas are the first(or second?) CTA bus purchased that will have definitely a couple more years left before retirement than let's say of the 15-17 years of life for the 5300s/4400s. Secondly, the 6400s are low-floor and the CTA never retired a low floor bus type yet (5800s first, 6400s second), so no one can really assume anything by looking back at previous and current retirements because the high floor-low floor plays into this, or maybe the enhanced technology of producing buses in the 21st Century. Now let's remember the delivery of the 6400s was in the years 2000-2002, so determining their retirement in 2007 would be quite farfetched depending on the facts stated above.

The topic may indeed be far fetched but the 2012 - 2014 timeframe is not that far off. IMHO the years of the 5300s and 4400s beyond the 12 were not that great. I admit a bias against the Novabus LFS engine layout so I'm hoping CTA retires them when their 12 years are up.

Gene

[Busjack]

Given CTA's history, I doubt that, and have indicated what timeline is more likely (closer to sw's, but not as far out, as CTA has indicated that the 6400s are in line for midlifes in the next year or so). The only way earlier retirement would occur is if the buses have mechanical issues. Seating has not recently been a priority for the CTA; especially not with the 1 by 2 seating in the 4400s, 5300s, and 3200 L cars, and the proposed longitudinal seating in the 5000s. Also, the 6400s are the first buses using the current standard procurement spec., so CTA can't logically be dissatisfied with them on a specifications basis, except, again, if there is an undisclosed pattern of mechanical issues.

Even assuming the FTA 12 year service life, 2012 is pushing it--the first 6400s were received in late 2000 (like November), and the bulk of the base order and Option 1 was received together in 2001. Then there was the gap before Option 2, which was always scheduled to be delivered in 2002, actually was, approximately between March and September of that year (when Nova closed its NY assembly plant).