Seattle Articulateds 2

[trainman8119]

Also, why do you assume that they are 2000 series, and why does it matter? I would bet on 7000 or 7800

Probably wouldn't be 7800, since the Compobus had that number, but then anything is possible. Right now, it is a good bet that the option won't happen.

[BusExpert32]

Probably wouldn't be 7800, since the Compobus had that number, but then anything is possible.

So what? Bus #7800 is retired. The CTA does indeed number buses by a number system that is currently not taken- for example: the old 1000 series(retired) and today's New Flyers. The 7800 is currently not taken by any CTA vehicle.

[rmadisonwi]

I don't know Bus Angel's intent with the comment of the artics being the 2000 series, but the hybrid artics do happen to be the 2000-series (actually, I think they're 2500-series or something like that) in Seattle.

[Tcmetro]

King County (Seattle) Metro Transit is reciveing 22 New Flyer DE60LFs with 3 doors. They may be LFRs, but I am not sure yet. The new artics will be 2813-2834. Here is the link: http://transit.metrokc.gov/am/vehicles/hy-diesel.html.

Metro is reciving 100 New Flyer DE60LF BRTs in 2009, although I do not think that all 100 will be delivered in one year. The first BRT will open in 2010, and the last one in 2013.

I think these new vehicles for the CTA might be put into service in the last years on the 5300s, as a replacement.

EDIT: Oops I meant the 6000s.

[Busjack]

Metro is reciving 100 New Flyer DE60LF BRTs in 2009, although I do not think that all 100 will be delivered in one year. The first BRT will open in 2010, and the last one in 2013.

I see on the King County e-news page that there are several references to RapidRide, mentioning new style buses. Do you think it is the case that Seattle is assigning this option, not because it doesn't have money, as some local sources said, but because it wants something different?

[Guest]

I see on the King County e-news page that there are several references to RapidRide, mentioning new style buses. Do you think it is the case that Seattle is assigning this option, not because it doesn't have money, as some local sources said, but because it wants something different?

Does anyone have any ideas what series CTAs new hybrids might be numbered?

[Busjack]

Does anyone have any ideas what series CTAs new hybrids might be numbered?

My previous guess is in post 8291, above. As noted, it doesn't make any real difference and I've been wrong before.

With regard to the 7800 dispute, I previously thought that again starting a series with 7800 would provide definite proof from the CTA that the Compobus is not here (thus agreeing with BusExpert ).

Also, my betting is that it would be a separate series, since CTA will definitely not tack on a different type of bus to an existing series. To make the series look newer than the 7500s, I would still bet on 7800 or 7801. In any event, the only holes are 7000, 780x, 8000, or 9000. One could argue 2100, but going up to 2249 if the buses are to be received before 2010 would overlap the 2200 rapid transit cars. Articulateds have always been in the 7XXXs, and if you want to bet on tradition, so be it.

[Tcmetro]

I see on the King County e-news page that there are several references to RapidRide, mentioning new style buses. Do you think it is the case that Seattle is assigning this option, not because it doesn't have money, as some local sources said, but because it wants something different?

Probably for something different. There will be about 500 buses total from the order for Seattle. It is supposed to be a specialized bus for BRT, but what is the difference between the D60LF, LFR, and BRT? Except for the styling, I expect them to be the same. The BRT models have doors on both sides (seen in Eugene, and Cleveland soon), but the Community Transit and KCM ones may not. This is starting to puzzle me.

[rmadisonwi]

Do you think it is the case that Seattle is assigning this option, not because it doesn't have money, as some local sources said, but because it wants something different?

If Seattle wanted to change the styling of the bus, I'm sure they could ask New Flyer to do it without having to change the contract.

As I understand, originally Houston Metro piggy-backed on Seattle's order, to secure better pricing. However, when Houston backed out, CTA was given the option.

[BUSANGEL#1]

Not very likely. As the presentation cited above states, 150 articulated buses are to replace 200 of the oldest buses. Those aren't the NABIs.

Also, why do you assume that they are 2000 series, and why does it matter? I would bet on 7000 or 7800, but have been frequently wrong before. Maybe you think that the 2008 on the drawing is the series number, but the 1030 1000s (not counting the 800 and 900 series hybrids) should go to 2029.

The information I provided is on the CTA's website. Maybe you should go check it out...

[Busjack]

The information I provided is on the CTA's website. Maybe you should go check it out...

No, the sources I provided were on the website, and I provided the links. Maybe you should check them out. I think you misconstrued them. There is nothing in the President's Report about replacing the current articulated buses, and the statement on page 11 "150 will replace 200 oldest buses (-2.3% decrease in fleet with same revenue)" negates that inference.

In any event, only the Board and Huberman know for sure. But what rmadison says seems consistent with that:

They are not being replaced. They are being supplemented. There is no intent to withdraw any of the NABI fleet from service, except for maybe a couple that have been wrecked or seriously damaged in accidents, fires, or what have you.

The rest of the buses are going to stick around for a while, even when the New Flyers get here. That said, when the New Flyers start arriving (assuming the funding is approved), there will

supposedly be a period when a few NABIs are taken out of service and given whatever major work needs to be done to hopefully bring those buses up to a decent, workable standard. But, they will return to service and the result will be a larger articulated bus fleet of around 370-ish buses.

The picture in the President's Report is just computer generated art; if we were to take it literally, the bus is a quarter mile out in the Lake.

[cta5658]

i wonder which garage(s) those artics could be assigned to

[BusHunter]

If anyone wants to see the Seattle press conferance for the articulated hybrids there is a cool video on YouTube Just go to YouTube and put "The largest fleet of hybrid articulated buses in history" in the search engine and it should pop up. These buses look fantastic and if CTA doesn't pick up the Seattle option they will have really missed out on something really good.

[Danielsmusic]

i wonder which garage(s) those artics could be assigned to

Well, assuming the doomsday plans don't happen, I would hope the New Flyer artics would be assigned first to 103rd. 103rd, in my opinion, needs them more than any other garage. It might not be so essential if 103rd gets the new 40-footers, but based on what happened with the Novas, I'm not so sure. After 103rd, I would guess North Park, just because there are still so many TMCs there.

[rmadisonwi]

Well, assuming the doomsday plans don't happen, I would hope the New Flyer artics would be assigned first to 103rd. 103rd, in my opinion, needs them more than any other garage. It might not be so essential if 103rd gets the new 40-footers, but based on what happened with the Novas, I'm not so sure. After 103rd, I would guess North Park, just because there are still so many TMCs there.

Where have you been? 103rd has been receiving new 40-foot buses since late Summer. There was even "proof" posted in another thread.

North Park has 104 TMCs at present. That number will probably go below 100 by the end of the month, perhaps even below 90. I'm not involved in assigning buses to garages, so I don't know for sure what's going to happen. Retirements might slow down a bit to keep a few more buses around for the next phase of three-track, which should be mid-March. It is almost assured that North Park will not have any TMCs left by the time the new hybrid artics start arriving.

Anyway, after North Park, the garage with the next highest total of old buses (1991s) is Kedzie, which has 60 TMCs and 34 Flxibles.

[Danielsmusic]

Where have you been? 103rd has been receiving new 40-foot buses since late Summer. There was even "proof" posted in another thread.

Yeah I know, but they still don't have enough.

North Park has 104 TMCs at present. That number will probably go below 100 by the end of the month, perhaps even below 90. I'm not involved in assigning buses to garages, so I don't know for sure what's going to happen. Retirements might slow down a bit to keep a few more buses around for the next phase of three-track, which should be mid-March. It is almost assured that North Park will not have any TMCs left by the time the new hybrid artics start arriving.

Ok, but NP still has the most routes which really could use artics (125-sometimes needed, 135, 136-needed, 145, 146, 147, 148-needed, 22-needed, 151-needed on all runs, X98, 152) as opposed to 103rd (2-needed, 14, 26, X28-needed PM, 192); 79th (2-needed, 3, 4, 6, 14, 79-needed but maybe not possible); and Kedzie (50-sometimes needed, 124-sometimes needed, 134, 151, 156, 168).

Anyway, after North Park, the garage with the next highest total of old buses (1991s) is Kedzie, which has 60 TMCs and 34 Flxibles.

Yes, but Kedzie doesn't need the artics like NP (or maybe 103rd and 77th) does/do.

[Busjack]

Retirements might slow down a bit to keep a few more buses around for the next phase of three-track, which should be mid-March.

I guess you disclosed your March surprise.

[rmadisonwi]

Yeah I know, but they still don't have enough.

But they are still being delivered, at a rate of approximately 10 buses per week (split 50/50 between North Park and 103rd, at present). I don't know when deliveries to North Park/103rd will stop, and start going to another garage, but there are still plenty of 40-foot buses to be delivered before the hybrid artics arrive.

Ok, but NP still has the most routes which really could use artics (125-sometimes needed, 135, 136-needed, 145, 146, 147, 148-needed, 22-needed, 151-needed on all runs, X98, 152) as opposed to 103rd (2-needed, 14, 26, X28-needed PM, 192)

So, if you think that North Park needs them more than 103rd, then why did you say that 103rd needs the hybrid artics more than any other garage? It isn't based on number of routes that need artics, nor is it based on the number of old buses currently on the roster, since North Park has 20 more old ones to be retired than 103rd does. However, that ratio could easily change by the time these buses start being delivered.

79th (2-needed, 3, 4, 6, 14, 79-needed but maybe not possible); and Kedzie (50-sometimes needed, 124-sometimes needed, 134, 151, 156, 168)...Yes, but Kedzie doesn't need the artics like NP (or maybe 103rd and 77th) does/do.

I'll disagree on the list of routes that need artics. The 2, 3, 4, 22, 50, 124, 125, 148, and 151 don't need artics. The X28 probably doesn't need them either. That's not to say you won't occasionally find artics on those routes, depending on what the garage has available for pullout. That's also not to say that you won't find heavy loads on those routes (in some cases, you will). But, the routes that need artics are those that get heavy loads on the artics. A lot of those routes will see passenger levels between 80 and 100 per trip (rush hour service standards is 93 on an articulated bus). The heavier non-artic routes may see ridership between 50 and 70 per bus (service standards are 60). That also doesn't mean that an individual trip won't see higher loads, but over a half-hour period, your average load per trip is supposed to be in that range.

The 124 only sees artics for special events at Navy Pier. Those tend to be on weekends, when Kedzie's artics are mostly idle, or on weekday evenings (July 3, for example) when all of the rush hour artics have already gone home for the day.

One other assumption you make is that all of the routes listed will still be operating out of the same garages you mention by the time the hybrid artics arrive.

I guess you disclosed your March surprise.

No. Three-track wasn't the March surprise. That was already known (even if the time frame for the start of the next phase wasn't). It has more to do with my last line above your quote.

[Busjack]

i wonder which garage(s) those artics could be assigned to

Of course, if that is only declarative of your state of mind, so be it.

Not being a CTA insider, but believing that the approach taken in the President's Report is sensible (when is the last time you heard me say that of CTA management ) if I were making the allocation, it would be on the basis of the criteria I previously said: take the top 10 highest ridership routes, make sure that the schedule frequency is sufficient that (1) the buses are probably already bunched, and (2) you can trade 3 for 4 (according to the President's Report; I would say 2 for 3)--and that is where the buses go. Also, because of the regenerative braking economy, that means local routes, not restocking the express routes that have and will have NABIs.

Using that method of analysis, I would definitely put them on 79, 20 (based on the ridership reports, I wonder how the Novas were ever sufficient), 63, 4, 53, 66, and 8.

9 hits me as too low a frequency, 77 as marginal in the frequency department, and 3 only during rush hour or a McCormick Place event.

If one also assumes that the garage assignments remain unchanged, and the existing garages can handle them, the three concentration points are 77, Chicago, and [surprise] 74th. 77th isn't a surprise, because at some point 3, 4, 79, and 87 had some articulateds.

For some of you folks--yes I did consult the Ridership Reports and schedules on the transitchicago.com site. And I used objective criteria. There is no sense playing the "my barn needs more buses" game when, as rmadison says, about 450 New Flyers will be received within approximately 14 months; also 3 track will be done sometime in 2009, and that fleet increase will no longer be needed.

I'm not saying that will happen, but since I wondered too, that is how I would do it.

[Busjack]

No. Three-track wasn't the March surprise. That was already known (even if the time frame for the start of the next phase wasn't). It has more to do with my last line above your quote.

So it sounds more like the TMCs will be out of North Park. 160 buses in a short time would be somewhat surprising, but anything can happen and probably will. Swap with FG???? But I should know better than to play with your teases. :rolleyes:

[Buslover88]

I'll disagree on the list of routes that need artics. The 2, 3, 4, 22, 50, 124, 125, 148, and 151 don't need artics. The X28 probably doesn't need them either. That's not to say you won't occasionally find artics on those routes, depending on what the garage has available for pullout. That's also not to say that you won't find heavy loads on those routes (in some cases, you will). But, the routes that need artics are those that get heavy loads on the artics. A lot of those routes will see passenger levels between 80 and 100 per trip (rush hour service standards is 93 on an articulated bus). The heavier non-artic routes may see ridership between 50 and 70 per bus (service standards are 60). That also doesn't mean that an individual trip won't see higher loads, but over a half-hour period, your average load per trip is supposed to be in that range.

I disagree somewhat with this post. Personally, I think #3 (I would say somewhat), #4 (I would say somewhat) and #151 (definately needed) need the artics. I've seen #151 packed to the gills at times. I agree when you say #22 (a little bit, but until Diversey, #36 helps the load), #X28 (definately doesn't need them), #50 (definately doesn't need them) and #124 (definately doesn't need them). I don't know about #2, #125 and #148.

[Danielsmusic]

But they are still being delivered, at a rate of approximately 10 buses per week (split 50/50 between North Park and 103rd, at present). I don't know when deliveries to North Park/103rd will stop, and start going to another garage, but there are still plenty of 40-foot buses to be delivered before the hybrid artics arrive.

Ok, then my estimate of bus delivery is wrong. I simply don't know how long the delivery of the 1000s will take, although I'd guess probably longer than the time given for 103rd.

So, if you think that North Park needs them more than 103rd, then why did you say that 103rd needs the hybrid artics more than any other garage?

Because it occurred to me that, based on CTA's previous decisionmaking, the new artics being delivered to 103rd isn't really a possibility. I have to convince myself that, while 103rd really needs the buses, NP needs them more. If I can do that, then I don't feel like I live in a city with completely retarded transit officials. Honestly, I think that the buses should be at 103rd, but I need to convince myself otherwisde. If I keep rooting for 103rd, the New Flyer artics will probably go to Archer.

I'll disagree on the list of routes that need artics. The 2, 3, 4, 22, 50, 124, 125, 148, and 151 don't need artics. The X28 probably doesn't need them either. That's not to say you won't occasionally find artics on those routes, depending on what the garage has available for pullout. That's also not to say that you won't find heavy loads on those routes (in some cases, you will). But, the routes that need artics are those that get heavy loads on the artics. A lot of those routes will see passenger levels between 80 and 100 per trip (rush hour service standards is 93 on an articulated bus). The heavier non-artic routes may see ridership between 50 and 70 per bus (service standards are 60). That also doesn't mean that an individual trip won't see higher loads, but over a half-hour period, your average load per trip is supposed to be in that range.

Up until a few months ago, I took the 151 from Clark/Devon to State/Adams every morning. It definitely needs artics, at least during rush hour. My nighttime route was the 22, and whenever I took it, the bus would have to leave people waiting at each stop. I had wait times over 30 minutes at least twice a week. Whenever I visit my girfriend in Hyde Park, I take the 2, 3/X3, or 4/X4. At least during the PM rush, the 3 and 4 are crush-loaded. Also, during the PM rush, the 2 does need artics. During the AM rush, not so much. My cousin lives in Ravenswood. Whenever I visit him on a weekday, I take the 148 to his place and the Ravenswood home. I've only seen maybe seven artics on the 148, but it definitely needs artics during the PM rush.

The 124 only sees artics for special events at Navy Pier. Those tend to be on weekends, when Kedzie's artics are mostly idle, or on weekday evenings (July 3, for example) when all of the rush hour artics have already gone home for the day.

And, based on my experience on the 124 this past summer, it could really use artics.

[BusExpert32]

So it sounds more like the TMCs will be out of North Park. 160 buses in a short time would be somewhat surprising, but anything can happen and probably will. Swap with FG???? But I should know better than to play with your teases.

What do you mean? Or are you joking about more TMCs at North Park and a swap with FG?

[wordguy]

Not being a CTA insider, but believing that the approach taken in the President's Report is sensible (when is the last time you heard me say that of CTA management ) if I were making the allocation, it would be on the basis of the criteria I previously said: take the top 10 highest ridership routes, make sure that the schedule frequency is sufficient that (1) the buses are probably already bunched, and (2) you can trade 3 for 4 (according to the President's Report; I would say 2 for 3)--and that is where the buses go. Also, because of the regenerative braking economy, that means local routes, not restocking the express routes that have and will have NABIs.

Using that method of analysis, I would definitely put them on 79, 20 (based on the ridership reports, I wonder how the Novas were ever sufficient), 63, 4, 53, 66, and 8.

===Agreed that it would make sense to concentrate the New Flyer Artics with their regenerative braking on local routes. However, I'm wondering if narrow streets choked with heavy retail activity (79th & Clark Streets among others) could really handle artics without aggravating already extreme congestion and creating major scheduling headaches.

[rmadisonwi]

How would articulated buses "aggravate" congestion? If anything, by providing the same capacity with fewer buses, you'd be reducing congestion slightly.

The width of the street doesn't matter. If it can take a 40-foot New Flyer, it can take a 60-foot New Flyer.

Articulated buses can actually make tighter turns that 40-foot buses, because the front half of the bus is really like a 35-foot bus. The trailer merely follows behind wherever the front end goes.

The only issue that articulated buses have that would put them at a disadvantage would be the extra length possibly not clearing an intersection or around parked cars when pulling into a bus stop. However, if people are parked legally, even that shouldn't be a problem.