Big Winter Test For CTA Forthcoming

[sw4400]

According to Tom Skilling's European Models, this snowstorm that begins on Monday and intensifies Tue night into Wednesday is looking to be a mammoth!!! 1.62" water equivalent is about 18.5-19" of snow, but some are talking lake enhancement which might take us to or over the 2' mark. Will the CTA's fleet of railcars and New Flyers, NOVA's and Optimas be able to handle this storm, or could we be looking at a citywide shutdown like in 1967(for those who were around to remember that storm, we got about 36")? What do you think?

Staten Island, NY Snowstorm.bmp

[Guest]

According to Tom Skilling's European Models, this snowstorm that begins on Monday and intensifies Tue night into Wednesday is looking to be a mammoth!!! 1.62" water equivalent is about 18.5-19" of snow, but some are talking lake enhancement which might take us to or over the 2' mark. Will the CTA's fleet of railcars and New Flyers, NOVA's and Optimas be able to handle this storm, or could we be looking at a citywide shutdown like in 1967(for those who were around to remember that storm, we got about 36")? What do you think?

The Jan, 1967 Superstorm/traffic snarl was mainly the result of lack of advanced weather forecasting, Doppler radar of course did not exist back then, GPS satellite, lack of emergency planning. These things we tend to take for granted today.

[mikeymc77]

Ill believe it when I see it. Less than 4 inches will fall, this is just to get everyone in panic mode and maybe even the pathetic city will then have their plows and salt trucks ready :angry:

[Busjack]

Obviously, whoever posted this didn't live through the 1967 or 1979 storms.*

We've had 20 inch storms the last couple of years, and no indication that Armageddon was coming.

Also, Skilling overwhelms us with his multicolor displays and not his accuracy. Phil Schwartz says 13.

But whoever at the CTA said that he wants a good winter test of the 5000s, he might get one.

___________

*Also, reading the retrospectives from those two storms, it is obvious that Streets & San didn't know how to handle either, nor CTA the second. It appears that both have learned something since then. Bilandic is no longer the mayor.

[sw4400]

Obviously, whoever posted this didn't live through the 1967 or 1979 storms.

Obviously, I didn't. But it was around 36". My parents lived through both. 1979 was somewhere in the 20" range.

We've had 20 inch storms the last couple of years, and no indication that Armageddon was coming.

I need some dates of 20-inch storms, and not as a result of blowing and drifting snows. The highest I remember was 12" sometime in the late '90's, early 2000's.

Also, Skilling overwhelms us with his multicolor displays and not his accuracy. Phil Schwartz says 13.

Tom Skilling has always been a pretty reliable weatherman, hence the Chief Meterologist title. But I'm not going into the whole Skilling/Schwartz debate here...

But whoever at the CTA said that he wants a good winter test of the 5000s, he might get one.

Not just the 5000's, but the 2200's, 2400's, 2600's and 3200's as well as the bus fleet. It'll be a lot of snow for all these vehicles. And I read about 1999, where the 2600's imploded on the CTA, they were fine through the first 18 winters of service. While the CTA fixed that issue causing the shorts, you just never know if any of the railcar series will fail in this storm.

[Busjack]

I'm not going to do a web search of the meteorological records for the past 15 years unless I get my normal rate for doing research, which is $50/hour. I'll just say that there were some big storms in excess of 20" since I moved here 15 years ago, and, in particular, since our condo association hired the current landscaper to do our snow plowing, which was about 2000.

I'm sure you can use the web yourself and find the day by day snowfall records for the past decade. In any event, in 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 the snowfall was in excess of 50 inches (again I kept track because the snow plow contract was up to 60, then the association pays more), and it looks like this snow will take this season's total around that range.

For the 1979 snow, I suggest that you read Krambles's book. Among other things, he points out that CTA was totally unprepared, and was doing stuff like using the traincars as snowplows, and that there was a successive number of snowfalls, with no thaw.

I'll also reiterate 5750's statement "The Jan, 1967 Superstorm/traffic snarl was mainly the result of lack of advanced weather forecasting, Doppler radar of course did not exist back then, lack of emergency planning." Besides that, John Coleman (on Channel 7, and that was the only station then with radar) said "I'm the only one to have predicted this storm, but it hit Chicago instead of Milwaukee. So, I was only 90 miles off." IIRC, and there is some Google to back it up, he was working in Milwaukee at the time of that storm, and came to Channel 7 in 1968.

I've also lived (not Chicago) where the annual snowfall was 160" in one year, 134" the next, and the transit system still ran. I also got a week off from school in 1967, which was the first time ever.

So, given all that, if CTA lays an egg this time, you warned them. Otherwise you have excess anxiety.

[cta_44499_FG]

I'm not going to do a web search of the meteorological records for the past 15 years unless I get my normal rate for doing research, which is $50/hour. I'll just say that there were some big storms in excess of 20" since I moved here 15 years ago, and, in particular, since our condo association hired the current landscaper to do our snow plowing, which was about 2000.

I'm sure you can use the web yourself and find the day by day snowfall records for the past decade. In any event, in 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 the snowfall was in excess of 50 inches (again I kept track because the snow plow contract was up to 60, then the association pays more), and it looks like this snow will take this season's total around that range.

For the 1979 snow, I suggest that you read Krambles's book. Among other things, he points out that CTA was totally unprepared, and was doing stuff like using the traincars as snowplows, and that there was a successive number of snowfalls, with no thaw.

I'll also reiterate 5750's statement "The Jan, 1967 Superstorm/traffic snarl was mainly the result of lack of advanced weather forecasting, Doppler radar of course did not exist back then, lack of emergency planning." Besides that, John Coleman (on Channel 7, and that was the only station then with radar) said "I'm the only one to have predicted this storm, but it hit Chicago instead of Milwaukee. So, I was only 90 miles off." IIRC, and there is some Google to back it up, he was working in Milwaukee at the time of that storm, and came to Channel 7 in 1968.

I've also lived (not Chicago) where the annual snowfall was 160" in one year, 134" the next, and the transit system still ran. I also got a week off from school in 1967, which was the first time ever.

So, given all that, if CTA lays an egg this time, you warned them. Otherwise you have excess anxiety.

Time will tell..

Let us not rule out Pace as well....which has a lack of buses out there to begin with....

[Busjack]

Time will tell..

Let us not rule out Pace as well....which has a lack of buses out there to begin with....

As well as a lack of riders in most divisions. If it is snowing that bad, the free riders will not be at the bus stops.

BTW, what lack of buses? Maybe misallocated buses, but I don't know of any lack.

[BusHunter]

The last big storm (talking in terms of 20" or greater) was 1/3/1999 when we had 20". The blue line shut down from Jeff Pk. to O'hare and IIRC correctly bus shuttles even some tour buses were used to ferry around the passengers. With the CTA's bus fleet pretty new, there most likely won't be to many problems. I'd look to the weakest link, the #2200 series to have the greatest issues. If too many die, they may have to shorten the line again. Expressway medians where the trains travel will be hit the hardest. There also the opportunity of salt getting on the third rail from plow trucks which could become a problem.

[busfan2847]

I'm not going to do a web search of the meteorological records for the past 15 years unless I get my normal rate for doing research, which is $50/hour. I'll just say that there were some big storms in excess of 20" since I moved here 15 years ago, and, in particular, since our condo association hired the current landscaper to do our snow plowing, which was about 2000.

According to the National Weather Service the 10 greatest Chicago snowfalls are:-

1. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967

2. 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999

3. 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930

4. 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979

5. 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931

6. 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929

7. 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939

8. 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918

9. 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970

10. 14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886

The last 6 snowfalls, by date, over 10" are:-

January 21-23, 2005 11.2 inches

January 30-31, 2002 12.0 inches

February 18, 2000 11.1 inches

January 1-3, 1999 21.6 inches

February 10-11, 1981 11.2 inches

January 13-14, 1979 18.8 inches

With the Tribune forecast of 1/31-2/2 of 25.3". If it hits as planned there will be extensive disruption especially during the heavy snowfall period Tuesday 9pm to Wednesday 9am. The January 1999 storm was unusual in that all models tracked its track several days in advance. There is some variability still in the models for this weeks storm.

[BusHunter]

According to the National Weather Service the 10 greatest Chicago snowfalls are:-

1. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967

2. 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999

3. 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930

4. 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979

5. 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931

6. 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929

7. 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939

8. 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918

9. 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970

10. 14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886

The National

With the Tribune forecast of 1/31-2/2 of 25.3". If it hits as planned there will be extensive disruption especially during the heavy snowfall period Tuesday 9pm to Wednesday 9am. The January 1999 storm was unusual in that all models tracked its track several days in advance. There is some variability still in the models for this weeks storm.

With the storms greatest punch coming in the overnight on tuesday, with the lack of trains running they may find themselves buried on Wednesday morning. Were going to see how good the overnight snow crews are at keeping things clear.

[mikeymc77]

Ill believe it when I see it. Less than 4 inches will fall, this is just to get everyone in panic mode and maybe even the pathetic city will then have their plows and salt trucks ready

I hope nobody is relying om me to be a weather forecaster....Uh oh :o

[Guest]

Although none of us, at least not me, enjoy the snow. But I do like when Tom Skilling occasionally talks about the 1967 Superstorm or the 1979 storm. Channel 9 always tends to show some good vintage CTA bus footage and still photos. Such as Flxible propanes and "New Looks" that were stuck downtown, a still shot taken along Lincoln Ave. in LakeView. and buses that were stuck along Michigan ave. and couldnt move during the 1967 storm. I saw another clip of a snow covered Marmon/Herrington coach rolling down EB on Lawrence ave. The footage of the 79 storm I watched a pair CTA GMC 5307s slowly trudging through the snow covered streets. I hope Skilling shows some of that vintage footage again with this storm on its way. Funny, as Im describing this right now, Ch. 7 just showed at the opening of its 4pm newscast, vintage color footage of the 1967 storm and of course CTA buses always make a cameo appearance! They showed Flxibles New Looks and Propanes stuck on what looked like Lake Shore Dr. also a GMC exCMC "Old Look" Bus #614 trying to drive thorugh the snow. So cool! I recorded it! Im going to continue watching newscasts especially WGN.

[Guest]

Channel 9 5pm news showed some more pics of 1967, they showed CTA buses all piled up one behind the other and another shot of two propane Flxibles being towed out by a wrecker on Michigan Ave. Pics are posted on WGN-TV website.

[chitowndude84]

Yikes I still remember that '99 storm !!! My dad couldn't get to work for days !!! Going to be around 65-70 here in the bay area . Be safe guys

[Busjack]

Although none of us, at least not me, enjoy the snow. But I do like when Tom Skilling occasionally talks about the 1967 Superstorm or the 1979 storm. Channel 9 always tends to show some good vintage CTA bus footage and still photos.

Fox had some last night, mostly 8700s on 151 and 155.

I also saw footage of 20s; apparently 3200 series.

Apparently there is a lot more out there than the picture of one big green and one new look stuck on LSD.

[Guest]

ABC7s 6pm news, Chuck Goudie did a story of the 1979 Blizzard and its effect on the Mayor's race between Bilandic and Byrne. They showed some really cool CTA footage of GMC 5307s stuck in the snow, even an interior shot inside a stuck bus, a Flxible New look loading up passengers, also a good video of a 6000 train pulling into a station.

With regard to the local news, I love the amount of Flxible propane video that pops up of the 1967 storm and GMC 5307 video from the 1979 storm.

[sw4400]

1st CTA problem of the night... CTA Bus jacknifed on LSD NB between Fullerton and Belmont.

[Guest]

1st CTA problem of the night... CTA Bus jacknifed on LSD NB between Fullerton and Belmont.

Theyre saying it was an artic.

[sw4400]

Theyre saying it was an artic.

Check the "Rail Alerts" topic. It's starting to look like 1999 all over again.

[jajuan]

Theyre saying it was an artic.

In regards to that, as of this hour (the 7am hour), Kedzie and 103rd are not running any artics on any of the routes that usually use them yet NP is on the 135 and 147 thus far according to Bustracker. Haven't seen any 136's, 144's or 146's showing up in service as of yet. What 148 buses are making it through are from NP while Kedzie is handling what 145 trips are out there, both with 1000s. No artics have been used so far on either of these two. As shown in the reports and updates on Channel 9 (WGN), Lake Shore Drive is in fact still closed. About 60 or so cars are still stuck in the NB lanes at Schiller and waiting to be towed, but all the people were rescued from those cars and the CTA buses that were stuck overnight as of about 6:20 to 6:30 this morning. Michigan Avenue is down to one hard to navigate lane each way. There are a few unfortunate souls who still have to work downtown, other than that downtown is pretty much deserted in a lot of spots in what shots the local media had. The Yellow Line has no service at all, and the Brown Line has no service between Kimball and Western stations due to the weather. The CTA just updated its alert page during the 7am hour to reflect the Yellow and Brown line issues and the still closed Lake Shore Drive, after the city officials handling this weather emergency gave a morning news conference to update everyone on how they're battling the storm. No reports given about Pace other than to say they have very limited service because of the difficulty in clearing the suburban streets their buses use, and that they urge everyone to stay home. Metra has several lines closed with the rest on Sunday schedules. South Shore will run on a regular weekday schedule, it was just reported. However service is suspended from South Bend to Michigan City for the time being.

[jajuan]

UPDATE: Brown Line is restored as of 7:50 am, but Yellow Line is still down. Kane and Will Counties have travel bans and Lake County, IL declared a civil emergency ordering residents there not to drive. They say none of their plows are getting out at the moment.

[jajuan]

UPDATE: A woman who was stuck on Lake Shore Drive overnight told WGN Morning news the mess on Lake Shore Drive started with a NB 146 bus swerving on the road and getting stuck across the lanes. The news had already reported that there were a few auto accidents after that which sent everything downhill really fast, leading to the city ordering the Drive closed shortly before 8pm. She confirmed the news reports that trying to rescue those folks was hampered by extremely high winds blowing the snow around so bad and rescue workers not being to get to a lot of them before their cars ran out of gas. There were reports of people abandoning their cars throughout the evening before the official police order for everyone to leave their cars and get in the buses CTA provided to help get them out. The woman speaking to WGN this morning says she had to literally crawl about along the Drive to the Fire rescuers who carried her aboard a bus waiting southbound to take her and others to St. Joseph's Hospital where she and about 150 others spent the night and got warmed up. They were still there as of 8am but the good news is none of them were injured or really had any ill effects. Also the cars still left on Lake Shore as of now 8:30am is down to a handful but it won't be reopened till later this afternoon at the earliest with trying to get the snow drifts cleared and the roadway salted. Plus WGN was able to confirm that Pace routes 309, 318, 352 and 381 are among those actually able to run. WGN said their website will have what's able to operate because there's so so much that can't as far as Pace goes.

[Kevin]

Attached photo from ChicagoTribune.com this morning.

[sw4400]

Reports coming in of CTA Buses stuck in snow. My guess is they were from last night/early morning, with some or all in the downtown/LSD area. The photo from Kevin is amazing!!! The electronics on that NP Bus are going to be screwed up.