Budget time

[Busjack]

I just received Pace's Moving Forward, and apparently everything is happiness and light over there, including such highlights as:

• Besides no fare hikes or service cuts, money to expand service.
• Ridership and sales tax revenue increases.
• State money for up to 163 fixed route buses (I guess that's why the bids went to opening).

Of course, I am wondering:

• Is CTA going to come out with a similar forecast? Metra already has said that fare hikes are necessary.
• Is Pace going to get a rude shock when the RTA tells them that the state still hasn't made good on its obligation on the RTA bonds used to freeze CTA and paratransit fares, as well as the state being about $4-8 billion behind in reimbursements to everyone, including the RTA?

Update: Press release here.

[trainman8119]

I just received Pace's Moving Forward, and apparently everything is happiness and light over there,

Something to watch up to the end of the year is some info I got regarding the Chairman and one of the Managers who seem to have forgotten the ethics statements they signed, and are working to fortify their own pockets and political ambitions. Applies to happenings in Joliet. In general, it is far from happiness right now and there is a lot of tension there. After Paratransit, many of the other previous positive programs are just afterthought stepchildren.

[Busjack]

Something to watch up to the end of the year is some info I got regarding the Chairman and one of the Managers who seem to have forgotten the ethics statements they signed, and are working to fortify their own pockets and political ambitions. Applies to happenings in Joliet. In general, it is far from happiness right now and there is a lot of tension there. After Paratransit, many of the other previous positive programs are just afterthought stepchildren.

I guess you aren't going to out your sources at the moment. Anyway, I was just referring to the facade on the budget.

With regard to paratransit:

• I had sent Pace a note that their stance on the paratransit funding guarantee meant that (again since there is one pot) they were sacrificing suburban service. The budget announcement indicates otherwise, but as I indicated, I am not necessarily buying that.
• The My Pace with Ali on fixed route ADA service* features Karen Tamley, who is on the Pace Board as the Mayor's Office for People with Disabilities, except that it is the Mayor of Chicago's Office....** I guess, though, that she is dedicated enough to the cause to make a plug for suburban service.***

__________

*I would have linked to WCIU, but it appears that their site is off line tonight.

**Due to an amendment to the RTA Act when those in Chicago asked why they weren't represented once Pace was given responsibility for city paratransit.

***Looks like bus 2658, which would have put her in the North Shore division. However, CTA buses in the background might have indicated that it was taped in part at the Howard terminal.

[Busjack]

Is it pretty much set in stone that there are going to be service cuts on top of the fare hikes? And if so do you know how much of a reduction it's going to be?

I think that the only indication is that the other two service boards indicated what they would do (Metra fare hike Pace, above), but Claypool hasn't said yet, but there are deadlines with the RTA. As that story indicates, the RTA has given all 3 a sales tax estimate, as required.

However, I agree that with Claypool bringing up the $242 million the state is consistently behind, the most likely scenario is to do something extreme and then blame Quinn for it, and see if Quinn tries to pull another fraudulent rabbit out of the hat, such as the borrowing for the freeze of 2010. Don't know if he has any rabbits left, but that's how transit has been treated since mid 2007.

[Sam92]

I am guessing that all remaining owl service might be eliminated, along with some weekend service on most or all bus routes and maybe all weekend service on selected bus routes. And most if not all bus routes that do not currently operate daily might be eliminated, as well. And many of the remaining routes might be reduced from daily operations to weekday rush-period-only operations. On top of all that, fares might be increased all the way to $7.50 or be switched to a distance-based structure in which longer-distance riders would pay progressively higher fares. Finally, transfers might be eliminated completely, making all cash, Transit Card and Chicago Card users pay the full fare (or have the entire full fare deducted from the stored value) on each and every ride.

Judging from what happened 2007, looks like everyone is going to be on Quinn's back if CTA brings this proposal to the public. Wonder what he tries this time to pacify everyone

[BusHunter]

I think that the only indication is that the other two service boards indicated what they would do (Metra fare hike Pace, above), but Claypool hasn't said yet, but there are deadlines with the RTA. As that story indicates, the RTA has given all 3 a sales tax estimate, as required.

However, I agree that with Claypool bringing up the $242 million the state is consistently behind, the most likely scenario is to do something extreme and then blame Quinn for it, and see if Quinn tries to pull another fraudulent rabbit out of the hat, such as the borrowing for the freeze of 2010. Don't know if he has any rabbits left, but that's how transit has been treated since mid 2007.

In an article I've read recently, sounds as if there are no more rabbits to pull out of the hat concerning CTA. Unless something changes, they may start to really feel the pain with no signs of rescue. If they keep taking a downward plunge, they may just merge Pace and the CTA. I wonder if it may be smart to actually make CTA rail it's own agency. Or would it be wise to merge it with Metra? It seems to need alot of money to keep afloat. BTW, I was thinking yesterday about the 163 buses Pace may be getting next year. If they replaced the #2400's from 1999, about 50 something buses, would over 100 buses be for service expansion? The #6000's should still have a few years left in them and can't be retired until 2014 or 15. If so that would be a 10 - 15 percent increase in service.

[Busjack]

In an article I've read recently, sounds as if there are no more rabbits to pull out of the hat concerning CTA. Unless something changes, they may start to really feel the pain with no signs of rescue. If they keep taking a downward plunge, they may just merge Pace and the CTA. I wonder if it may be smart to actually make CTA rail it's own agency. Or would it be wise to merge it with Metra? It seems to need alot of money to keep afloat. BTW, I was thinking yesterday about the 163 buses Pace may be getting next year. If they replaced the #2400's from 1999, about 50 something buses, would over 100 buses be for service expansion? The #6000's should still have a few years left in them and can't be retired until 2014 or 15. If so that would be a 10 - 15 percent increase in service.

• Merging CTA and Pace--I've mentioned many times why all 4 agencies should be abolished, but knowing the politicians here, it will never happen. Since Claypool apparently faces the biggest budget mess, but dodged the question about regional cooperation twice (once from Hilkevitch and once from the CTA Tattler), you know that city pols are not going to give up one of their patronage pits.
• As far as Pace saying 163 buses, you have to remember that the 6000s were received over 4 years. Although what was received when fluctuates, the 2011 Budget indicates 85 of the 6000s were received in 2000, and would be eligible for replacement in 2012. Add to that 52 1999 NABIs and if they are still booking maybe 35 Orion Is still around. That gets you to 172, and probably you can deduct the couple of buses (2402, 2407, 2453, 6040, 6047) previously wrecked and sold off, which magically gets you within the ballpark. Thus, while things we think will be replaced often aren't completely, those numbers don't indicate expansion.
• Anyway, with respect to the budget, probably all Pace is saying is that if the Capital Bill money comes through, it is enough to buy that many.

[BusHunter]

• Merging CTA and Pace--I've mentioned many times why all 4 agencies should be abolished, but knowing the politicians here, it will never happen. Since Claypool apparently faces the biggest budget mess, but dodged the question about regional cooperation twice (once from Hilkevitch and once from the CTA Tattler), you know that city pols are not going to give up one of their patronage pits.
• As far as Pace saying 163 buses, you have to remember that the 6000s were received over 4 years. Although what was received when fluctuates, the 2011 Budget indicates 85 of the 6000s were received in 2000, and would be eligible for replacement in 2012. Add to that 52 1999 NABIs and if they are still booking maybe 35 Orion Is still around. That gets you to 172, and probably you can deduct the couple of buses (2402, 2407, 2453, 6040, 6047) previously wrecked and sold off, which magically gets you within the ballpark. Thus, while things we think will be replaced often aren't completely, those numbers don't indicate expansion.
• Anyway, with respect to the budget, probably all Pace is saying is that if the Capital Bill money comes through, it is enough to buy that many.

Or Pace could be setting the stage for an expressway BRT expansion. That would seem more likely if they did expand versus the local service. (which they may need to do after next years probable cuts at CTA) Although your comments seem to give a better explanation for the 163 buses, then what would be available for service expansion?

[Busjack]

...Although your comments seem to give a better explanation for the 163 buses, then what would be available for service expansion?

The only time they expanded express service with their own buses, it was CMAQ money used to buy the Nova Classics. Would expect the same for I-90.

I also threw in the possibility that, as always, not all the oldies are retired. Also, have to figure that most of their proposed projects are ART (270 and 322), which would replace existing service rather than add to it.

[Busjack]

Back to the main subject, this is starting to dribble out, with respect to the CTA, just as predicted. The revelation today is that, like most other agencies in the state, they can't borrow their way out of it.

The only revelation is that 2 years after the Rodriguez cuts, the hole is, if anything, even bigger for 2012 than what was projected for 2010.

[sw4400]

Not wanting to sound like a smart-a**, but this might seriously be the future of the CTA...

1 Bus Route

1 Rail Line

50 CTA Operators(25 Bus, 25 Rail)

30 CTA Mechanics(15 Bus, 15 Rail)

10 CTA Supervisors(5 Bus, 5 Rail)

Base Fare: $15.25(No Transfer)

Reduced Fare: $7.50(No Transfer)

30-Day(Full): $300

30-Day(Reduced): $125

7-Day(CTA): $105

7-Day(CTA/PACE): $120

3-Day: $85

1-Day: $60

Might sound crass, but with the way the State of Illinois and the CTA is run, this might be the future of the CTA(ok, maybe not the whole 1 Bus Route, 1 Rail Line thing), but it makes you think how much more cutting can they do???

[Busjack]

Not wanting to sound like a smart-a**, but this might seriously be the future of the CTA...

...

Base Fare: $15.25(No Transfer)

Reduced Fare: $7.50(No Transfer)

...

Might sound crass, but with the way the State of Illinois and the CTA is run, this might be the future of the CTA(ok, maybe not the whole 1 Bus Route, 1 Rail Line thing), but it makes you think how much more cutting can they do???

At that point, they can refer those patrons to Amm's Limo service and just shut it down. Nobody is going to pay that to get in the middle of a fight between a homeless person and two thugs, or, as the CTA Tattler indicates, have one's smartphone stolen.

How do cab fares compare?

[BusHunter]

Back to the main subject, this is starting to dribble out, with respect to the CTA, just as predicted. The revelation today is that, like most other agencies in the state, they can't borrow their way out of it.

The only revelation is that 2 years after the Rodriguez cuts, the hole is, if anything, even bigger for 2012 than what was projected for 2010.

That sounds worse than I thought it would be. A $277 million shortfall for 2012. When they cut all the x routes in 2010 the shortfall was only $95 million. Even if they cut the $277 million in half with job related concessions they still would most likely cut almost as much as before even with a fare hike.

[Busjack]

... When they cut all the x routes in 2010 the shortfall was only $95 million. Even if they cut the $273 million in half with job related concessions they still would most likely cut almost as much as before even with a fare hike.

Technically, the $95 million was what they got out of service cuts. There was also the RTA borrowing of $166 million for the CTA/Paratransit two year fare freeze. Probably $50 million a year went to CTA, if you want to compare budgets. That's what I meant in saying that they can no longer borrow their way out.

If one wants to crunch the 2010 numbers, the 2010 budget, prior to the fare freeze, is still online. Note that then R. Rod. was proposing a $2.50 fare for local buses, and $3.00 fare for rapid transit and express buses.

[BusHunter]

Technically, the $95 million was what they got out of service cuts. There was also the RTA borrowing of $166 million for the CTA/Paratransit two year fare freeze. Probably $50 million a year went to CTA, if you want to compare budgets. That's what I meant in saying that they can no longer borrow their way out.

If one wants to crunch the 2010 numbers, the 2010 budget, prior to the fare freeze, is still online. Note that then R. Rod. was proposing a $2.50 fare for local buses, and $3.00 fare for rapid transit and express buses.

I don't think the fares would rise above $3, but transfers may be eliminated. That would just be a standard fare for 3 rides. There may be a small premium if you originate on the "L". That may actually be fair, if you look at the price of gas per gallon. That would be contingent on getting the $277 million down. I think were going to see now, how good Claypool actually is. If he or his finiancial team can't lower the deficit, next year is going to be devastating. Even with a lower deficit, there may be 10 -20 route cuts, but I would stick to the feeders. But there could be a shocker, like the elimination of Sunday bus service. That would have to do something for the deficit. $277 million is almost a quarter of the budget. IIRC, the budget is 1.3 billion. So without lowering the deficit they may be looking at losing 25 percent of service. Maybe less if they do a fare raise with it. That is most likely where they stand.

[Busjack]

.... IIRC, the budget is 1.3 billion. So without lowering the deficit they may be looking at losing 25 percent of service. Maybe less if they do a fare raise with it. That is most likely where they stand.

I'm certainly not making predictions, but you looking at it that way shows what some of the problem was in 2005 and 2010.

To put basically a political scare into people in 2005, Kruesi, by saying "Sunday schedule, 7 days a week" essentially said that "if we cut certain routes,we lose the fares on those routes, and we lose the subsidy for those routes," so it turned out, when Carole Brown was pressed on the issue, that they then proposed about $200 million in cuts for a $55 million deficit.

Rodriguez took what seemed to be a more reasonable approach when CTA really did have to cut service and personnel. One would assume that while fare hikes and service cuts would cost some riders, the rest would cram onto the buses, and the statutory distribution formula would be the same, anyway, with CTA getting about 48% of RTA revenue.

While I humored sw, the best one could say is that if the entire deficit were closed by using service cuts, those would have to be about 3 times those of 2010, but they undoubtedly will have a mix of cuts, fare hikes, and supposed internal savings. While those would still have to add up to $277 million, no one (and especially Claypool) knows what the proportions would be. That's especially pointed out by the CTA Tattler conceding that the CTA budget process is behind legally imposed deadlines.

[Busjack]

Even worse they are making concessions on a budget that does not yet exist. I don't know when there going to find the time for any open houses to discuss any cuts.

At least section 34 of the MTA Act requires that the CTA have a proposed budget available for public inspection 3 weeks before holding a public hearing, and before submitting it to the RTA, they have to hold at least one public hearing, as well as one hearing before the Cook County Board, and then adopt a budget by Nov. 15 to submit to the RTA.

Hence the time it is a running.

[Busjack]

Or Pace could be setting the stage for an expressway BRT expansion. That would seem more likely if they did expand versus the local service. (which they may need to do after next years probable cuts at CTA) Although your comments seem to give a better explanation for the 163 buses, then what would be available for service expansion?

Back to this topic, the Sept. Board Minutes include some discussion on the rationale for the bus acquisition budget, and also that the first bunch would go to South.

[Kevin]

CTA budget announcement expected this morning.

[Busjack]

CTA budget announcement expected this morning.

Fox was running a crawl of Facebook messages on "would you prefer a fare hike or service cuts," and while I didn't see the story, it is on the website here.

In that Pace and Metra had to submit theirs to the board, first, apparently this just goes to show that again the CTA Board is apparently nugatory, since the Fox story only refers to a press conference, not a board meeting. Sure no notice of a special board meeting on Wednesday (today).

Of course, the crawl showed the idiocy of that method of communication, with such entries is "cut corporate greed," "shouldn't be getting new rail cars" and "this looks like a cause for Occupy Chicago."

The other thing I wonder about (and I have commented on the CTA Tattler about Walker's reports being meaningless) is that, other than the state being behind in its bills, how Claypool is going to be able to come up with a $277 million deficit, when this month's report indicates that CTA is running a surplus compared to budget ytd.

[jajuan]

Fox was running a crawl of Facebook messages on "would you prefer a fare hike or service cuts," and while I didn't see the story, it is on the website here.

In that Pace and Metra had to submit theirs to the board, first, apparently this just goes to show that again the CTA Board is apparently nugatory, since the Fox story only refers to a press conference, not a board meeting. Sure no notice of a special board meeting on Wednesday (today).

Of course, the crawl showed the idiocy of that method of communication, with such entries is "cut corporate greed," "shouldn't be getting new rail cars" and "this looks like a cause for Occupy Chicago."

The other thing I wonder about (and I have commented on the CTA Tattler about Walker's reports being meaningless) is that, other than the state being behind in its bills, how Claypool is going to be able to come up with a $277 million deficit, when this month's report indicates that CTA is running a surplus compared to budget ytd.

Well I'm just starting read through the press release of what he came up with now on the CTA website and the quick summary of what he's proposed is a $1.24 billion proposal that's $66 million dollars less than the previous budget and relies on heavy cuts in the management bureaucracy and concessions from the unions along some work rule changes that I haven't had a chance to scroll down to just yet. About $117 million is supposed to come from the management cuts and the rest from the work rule changes, but that half of the savings would depend on if Claypool makes any leeway with the unions in getting the work rules changed. That whole story in the RedEye and Trib about the absentee issue and the resulting bus and rail run cancellations doesn't really help the unions' positions. The big news is he's proposing NO cuts in service or fare hikes. So if the CTA board approves this then Claypool managed to do what previous CTA heads couldn't do in trimming down the downtown fat and still manage to maintain service levels and keep the line on fares. I have to say I'm presently surprised if he can actually make this work. And again it's still a big if because the unions would have to come to agreement to make it work.

[Sam92]

The budget book is on the site too. Apparently this guy has planned the budget for the next two years with no fare hikes or service cuts. Maybe this Claypool has something going for him after all

[Sam92]

Looks like we are getting some 40ft hybrids as well as artics. Question is how are they going to do on routes that have low clearance. They face the same problems as artics with that.

[jajuan]

Looking at what the press release gives as examples of how wacky some of the rules are, and if those examples are true, then it would be difficult for the unions to say nothing should change. The news story from a couple weeks ago hinted that it's hard to oust somebody guilty of chronic absenteeism but a switchman has to move a train the final few hundred feet into Skokie Shops after a rail operator brings it up from 95th Street because the operator has to stop outside the maintenance doors?? Or a carpenter has to summon a tradesman from another union to switch a blade on a chainsaw instead of being able to do it himself? So the rail operator is now suddenly incapable of driving a train into the shops after he already drove it clear across town and that carpenter doesn't know how to switch a chainsaw blade bases on these rules. And they're both something we know common sense says comes with their professions.

[Busjack]

Looking at what the press release gives as examples of how wacky some of the rules are...

However, there are three problems with the press release.

• In the "the problem goes back 30 years" Claypool has again gone back to the Kruesi playbook of using bogus ridership numbers (unlinked trips) when the Auditor General says passenger miles. Apparently, he and Frank believe that Pace and Metra are entitled to nothing. Of course, the Pace budget points out that Pace gets all sorts of "off the tops," such as that sales tax growth for suburban service was mostly eaten by the assurance the paratransit will get everything it wants, and the South Cook Jobs setaside, which basically only means that Pace can run existing service in the South Division off the top, as no increase in service is foreseen in the Pace budget.
• Then he grouses about what the 2008 RTA Act did about the pension obligation, which the Kruesi administration had virtually ignored, although it did run some studies indicating that the CTA pensions were grossly underfunded. I guess he is no different than Daley, who said, when a law was passed mandating that the city take care of its liability "you can't do that, or property taxes will triple." No, the political subdivisions of the state do have to do something about it.
• He can carp about work rules, but he can't impose them unilaterally. CTA contracts have a history of being settled by arbitration (remember the retired bus operator who complained about that in this forum), and any unilateral imposition during bargaining season would result in an unfair labor practice complaint before the Illinois Public Labor Relations Board.

Also, IIRC, the carpenter's union agreed to the give backs the last time around. So, this is not just dealing with the two locals of the ATU.

One probably can cut down absenteeism, but I doubt that one can eliminate the extra board. People indicated on the CTA Tattler that disability benefits and the like are not as favorable as what prevailed in private industry. Of course, private industry can make everyone independent contractors and eliminate their benefit costs.

Given the channeling of Kruesi and Claypool's obliviousness to CTA operations (as indicated in the 5000s Arrive thread), I'm not putting much book into this budget coming off as predicted. The only question is whether he'll go back to the Kruesi playbook of starting up another "Moving Beyond Congestion" campaign, but, as I indicated above, it looks like CTA didn't come out so good with that one. Suburban legislators might bail out Pace in the manner I mentioned above, but they won't bail out CTA with another RTA tax increase in this climate.