Javi75 Posted August 11 Report Posted August 11 54 minutes ago, Busjack said: Yeah, but what about all the 9000s noise? From the looks of things cta is weighing their options I was under the impression 7000s options were completely null & void. I just like the 7000s from the times I rode the blue line but 9000s open the door to more innovation & design as they’ll be next generation. This depends on how bad 2600s conditions are, how long the 3200s can hold out, if the red line needs more cars for RLE and if the agency would be in better shape going with an active production line & price per car. Quote
Busjack Posted August 11 Report Posted August 11 2 minutes ago, Javi75 said: From the looks of things cta is weighing their options I was under the impression 7000s options were completely null & void. That wasn't the case. The last time the Law Dept. was before the CT Board, he said that that ordinance was to set the price index for the options, but that any exercise of the options would require further board approval. We'll have to wait until tomorrow's meeting to see what the current story is. Quote
Javi75 Posted August 11 Report Posted August 11 51 minutes ago, Busjack said: That wasn't the case. The last time the Law Dept. was before the CT Board, he said that that ordinance was to set the price index for the options, but that any exercise of the options would require further board approval. We'll have to wait until tomorrow's meeting to see what the current story is. The moment of truth Quote
Busjack Posted August 12 Report Posted August 12 5 hours ago, Javi75 said: The moment of truth Or the moment of further delays. As I implied above, there ISN'T an agenda item to exercise an option. Quote
rl12383 Posted August 12 Report Posted August 12 The agenda item was for the approval for a $40 million dollar payment to CRRC as a price adjustment for increased costs to manufacturer the base order of 7000 series El cars. The order was approved and a new end date to the contract was set for the middle of 2028 to finish delivery of the base order. Quote
Busjack Posted August 12 Report Posted August 12 5 hours ago, rl12383 said: The agenda item was for the approval for a $40 million dollar payment to CRRC as a price adjustment for increased costs to manufacturer the base order of 7000 series El cars. The order was approved and a new end date to the contract was set for the middle of 2028 to finish delivery of the base order. In addition, from the video, it was stated: A deadline was established for CRRC to provide performance security for Option 1. There should be enough 7000s to take care of growth for RLE and RPM. The $40 million was in settlement of CRRC claims for $221.2 million, and $20 million of it will be paid when 300 cars are delivered and $20 million in installments thereafter. 254 cars have been delivered. 40 cars in the Chicago factory. 80-90 cars under construction in China (I assume shells). 10-12 cars on the ship. So, that's pretty close to all of the base order. My inference is that while CTA is committed to 400 cars, its intent is to get at least 500 but not exercise the option until performance security is given. #7500 would be delivered in 2029. The 3200s are going to hang around until around 2032, when the proposed 9000s timeline kicks in, but the 9000s probably will be only the 300 cars in the grant. 2 Quote
wayfaringrob Posted August 12 Report Posted August 12 1 hour ago, Busjack said: In addition, from the video, it was stated: A deadline was established for CRRC to provide performance security for Option 1. There should be enough 7000s to take care of growth for RLE and RPM. The $40 million was in settlement of CRRC claims for $221.2 million, and $20 million of it will be paid when 300 cars are delivered and $20 million in installments thereafter. 254 cars have been delivered. 40 cars in the Chicago factory. 80-90 cars under construction in China (I assume shells). 10-12 cars on the ship. So, that's pretty close to all of the base order. My inference is that while CTA is committed to 400 cars, its intent is to get at least 500 but not exercise the option until performance security is given. #7500 would be delivered in 2029. The 3200s are going to hang around until around 2032, when the proposed 9000s timeline kicks in, but the 9000s probably will be only the 300 cars in the grant. I don't know, from the commentary it sounded like they were working for a long time to settle this overage claim and are glad to have gotten the number down but frustrated with the delays and increases. My sense is that they are trying to cut their losses, stick to the original 400 with as small of an overage as possible, and move on. Quote
Busjack Posted August 12 Report Posted August 12 3 hours ago, wayfaringrob said: I don't know, from the commentary it sounded like they were working for a long time to settle this overage claim and are glad to have gotten the number down but frustrated with the delays and increases. My sense is that they are trying to cut their losses, stick to the original 400 with as small of an overage as possible, and move on. Their self-congratulation seemed to go that way, but the comments I noted above that they wanted enough cars to start RLE (in 2029 or 2030) and they wanted security for Option 1 production sure sound to me like my inference was correct. Otherwise, they would have just said "we'll take the base order, and that's that." Update: I edited the link in my prior post to reflect the point where this item commenced. But to repeat: here. Quote
Bus1883 Posted August 13 Report Posted August 13 5 hours ago, Busjack said: Their self-congratulation seemed to go that way, but the comments I noted above that they wanted enough cars to start RLE (in 2029 or 2030) and they wanted security for Option 1 production sure sound to me like my inference was correct. Otherwise, they would have just said "we'll take the base order, and that's that." Update: I edited the link in my prior post to reflect the point where this item commenced. But to repeat: here. Still guessing what could happen once RLE is opened. Since the 9000s are quite far away from the field. More than likely the 5000s between the Pink and Green will remain where they are now, with the blue full of 7000s and then Brown and Orange with the left over 2600s that remain with 3200s. 1 Quote
Busjack Posted August 13 Report Posted August 13 12 hours ago, Bus1883 said: Still guessing what could happen once RLE is opened. Since the 9000s are quite far away from the field. More than likely the 5000s between the Pink and Green will remain where they are now, with the blue full of 7000s and then Brown and Orange with the left over 2600s that remain with 3200s. To some extent, I agree, but the question, on which you did not surmise, is whether the expanded Red Line will run only 5000s or a mix of 5000s and 7000s. I think, at a minimum, that the 5200s rostered to the Red Line but assigned to 54th, and running short trips on the Blue Line, will go back to Howard, and the Blue Line will run only 7000s. This also changes my conception of the characterization of the options for the 7000s. On the second iteration, it was a base order of 400, Option 1 for 100, Option 2 for 156 (note that there are 256 3200s, not counting 3257-8), and then Option 3 for 100 and Option 4 for 90, both for "expansion." Since Chicagoland Transit documented that 7013-14 were received in June 2022, the 846 cars should have been delivered by March 2024 at a rate of 10/week,* but, of course, they weren't. That makes me think that Option 1 is for expansion, and then your conclusion still applies to the Brown and Orange Lines. ___________________ -EDIT: Even at 5/week, it should have wound up around now. Quote
Busjack Posted August 15 Report Posted August 15 On 8/11/2026 at 4:48 PM, Javi75 said: Despite all the headaches with CRRC, I’m personally hoping for cta to pick up all options of 7000s. Hopefully there won’t be another major production delay. I want to see a higher presence of them in the l system beyond just the blue line. I guess I should have mentioned that based on the video there is a 22% probability of that, discounted by the stated contingency that CRRC has to provide production security and the not stated contingency that NITA will approve exercising the option. Maybe you can buy a contract on Kalshi for 12 cents. My 22% is based on that options to put them on the Brown and Orange Lines won't happen, again based on the 9000s smoke (Replacement Grant announcement and solicitation of letters of interest and qualifications to design them). Quote
Sam92 Posted August 15 Report Posted August 15 On 8/12/2026 at 9:26 PM, Busjack said: To some extent, I agree, but the question, on which you did not surmise, is whether the expanded Red Line will run only 5000s or a mix of 5000s and 7000s. This is a tough one; cta did all the work to consolidate fleets at Howard but the numbers don't allow that consolidation to remain if only the Base and option 1 cars come in. The series being untrainable also makes this complicated 🤔 Quote
Bus1883 Posted August 15 Report Posted August 15 27 minutes ago, Sam92 said: This is a tough one; cta did all the work to consolidate fleets at Howard but the numbers don't allow that consolidation to remain if only the Base and option 1 cars come in. The series being untrainable also makes this complicated 🤔 With the 5000s and 7000s being incompatible I don’t think management would be interested in having them share lines but you currently have the blue line with three different series with only two being compatible. CTA should do an option or two with the 7000s and have them cover Pink and Green and send a few over to the Red Line, while Red/Purple and Yellow is split within the entire fleet of 5000s🤷♂️. Quote
Sam92 Posted August 15 Report Posted August 15 1 hour ago, Bus1883 said: With the 5000s and 7000s being incompatible I don’t think management would be interested in having them share lines but you currently have the blue line with three different series with only two being compatible. CTA should do an option or two with the 7000s and have them cover Pink and Green and send a few over to the Red Line, while Red/Purple and Yellow is split within the entire fleet of 5000s🤷♂️. It's one thing to have mixed fleets during the transition but outside of that you're right about them not wanting mixed especially incompatible equipment. It's wild, 7000s and 5000s are like 10-12 years apart but can't be trained yet a 2200 and 3200 could. It kills flexibility in situations like this where deliveries get slowed down. 2 Quote
garmon757 Posted August 15 Report Posted August 15 Spotted 7317-18 in service. That’s a massive leap. 1 Quote
Busjack Posted August 15 Report Posted August 15 14 minutes ago, garmon757 said: Spotted 7317-18 in service. That’s a massive leap. Again, I'm messing around, but the Board meeting video said 254 in service, and at that moment, we agreed. The conundrum is the gap between 7252 and 7315. As noted above, there are 40 cars in the factory and 10-12 on the ship, but there's a gap of 62. Quote
Busjack Posted August 15 Report Posted August 15 13 hours ago, Bus1883 said: With the 5000s and 7000s being incompatible I don’t think management would be interested in having them share lines but you currently have the blue line with three different series with only two being compatible. CTA should do an option or two with the 7000s and have them cover Pink and Green and send a few over to the Red Line, while Red/Purple and Yellow is split within the entire fleet of 5000s🤷♂️. 12 hours ago, Sam92 said: It's one thing to have mixed fleets during the transition but outside of that you're right about them not wanting mixed especially incompatible equipment. It's wild, 7000s and 5000s are like 10-12 years apart but can't be trained yet a 2200 and 3200 could. It kills flexibility in situations like this where deliveries get slowed down. It has been clear;y established that any kind of train can run on a line (subject to electrical power constraints), but incompatible cars can't be in the same consist. Cars 2000 through 3457 were designed to be compatible, with the possibility that the 3200s had more electronics, but they all had the same DC motors, train lines and pins, etc. Chicago-l.org's 5000 page says "The new series of cars was originally going to be essentially the same as the 3200-series with a few upgrades. The '3500-series', as they were dubbed..." but that was withdrawn, [Garfield not saying] because builders would not bid on DC cars. Then we learned that the solicitation for 7000s was withdrawn, because the base order was too small and only Bombardier would bid on a compatible spec. We surmised that that was because proprietary software was involved. An issue might be the train lines, as pointed out that the digital destination signs on the 3200s must be compatible with the existing train lines, not only because they had to be compatible with what was already on the 3200s, but, it later turned out, so they could be trained with the 2600s. On the other hand, those on 5000s are electronically controlled. There are other differences between 5000s and 7000s, such as the punch maps in the 5000s and the flat screens in 7000s. At the Board meeting, they said the car leveling to the platform systems are different. I don't know how operationally significant these are. Restricting 5000s to certain lines seems related to trying to keep maintenance shops consistent--i.e. Pink Line work was consolidated at Harlem/Green Line. @Sam92's comment about "Howard" raises the question how 98th interacts with it, and would it make any difference when 98th is moved to a new yard at 120th. Quote
Sam92 Posted August 15 Report Posted August 15 3 hours ago, Busjack said: Restricting 5000s to certain lines seems related to trying to keep maintenance shops consistent--i.e. Pink Line work was consolidated at Harlem/Green Line. @Sam92's comment about "Howard" raises the question how 98th interacts with it, and would it make any difference when 98th is moved to a new yard at 120th. As far as interactions I'm assuming 98th just holds all of the SB extras as lay-ups from the AM rush then sends them out NB in the PM (so there's also slight over serving on the Ryan side in the PM rush just like the AM) Quote
Bus1883 Posted August 15 Report Posted August 15 4 hours ago, Busjack said: It has been clear;y established that any kind of train can run on a line (subject to electrical power constraints), but incompatible cars can't be in the same consist. Cars 2000 through 3457 were designed to be compatible, with the possibility that the 3200s had more electronics, but they all had the same DC motors, train lines and pins, etc. Chicago-l.org's 5000 page says "The new series of cars was originally going to be essentially the same as the 3200-series with a few upgrades. The '3500-series', as they were dubbed..." but that was withdrawn, [Garfield not saying] because builders would not bid on DC cars. Then we learned that the solicitation for 7000s was withdrawn, because the base order was too small and only Bombardier would bid on a compatible spec. We surmised that that was because proprietary software was involved. An issue might be the train lines, as pointed out that the digital destination signs on the 3200s must be compatible with the existing train lines, not only because they had to be compatible with what was already on the 3200s, but, it later turned out, so they could be trained with the 2600s. On the other hand, those on 5000s are electronically controlled. There are other differences between 5000s and 7000s, such as the punch maps in the 5000s and the flat screens in 7000s. At the Board meeting, they said the car leveling to the platform systems are different. I don't know how operationally significant these are. Restricting 5000s to certain lines seems related to trying to keep maintenance shops consistent--i.e. Pink Line work was consolidated at Harlem/Green Line. @Sam92's comment about "Howard" raises the question how 98th interacts with it, and would it make any difference when 98th is moved to a new yard at 120th. I think 98th yard will remain in use to serve extra trains with 120th yard projected for 340 cars. Howard has a capacity of 310. The existing yard in the median of the merging expressways has a capacity of about 238 cars. This can definitely allow room for a select number of extra cars for the extension. The differences in the 5000s and 7000s lowering down is that the 5000s stay down until departure while the 7000s raises back up before departing. Quote
Busjack Posted August 15 Report Posted August 15 48 minutes ago, Sam92 said: As far as interactions I'm assuming 98th just holds all of the SB extras as lay-ups from the AM rush then sends them out NB in the PM (so there's also slight over serving on the Ryan side in the PM rush just like the AM) There's a shop down there and storage down the Bishop Ford connector. I see that @Bus1883 basically answered the capacity question. I couldn't find the last posted paper roster, but by your theory, Howard would have to store about 440 cars (deducting Green, Pink, and about 36 at Linden). If Howard's capacity is 310, your theory doesn't work. Again, based on @Bus1883's numbers, 120th will be a major yard, not just a layover point. Quote
Sam92 Posted August 15 Report Posted August 15 25 minutes ago, Busjack said: There's a shop down there and storage down the Bishop Ford connector. I see that @Bus1883 basically answered the capacity question. I couldn't find the last posted paper roster, but by your theory, Howard would have to store about 440 cars (deducting Green, Pink, and about 36 at Linden). If Howard's capacity is 310, your theory doesn't work. Again, based on @Bus1883's numbers, 120th will be a major yard, not just a layover point. Well yes both yards are for storage... Probably should have asked what you meant by interactions; I guess you meant maintenance instead of strictly scheduling 🤔. Quote
Busjack Posted August 15 Report Posted August 15 56 minutes ago, Sam92 said: Well yes both yards are for storage... Probably should have asked what you meant by interactions; I guess you meant maintenance instead of strictly scheduling 🤔. Maintenance is what I meant (as indicated by my Pink at Harlem reference). I was ruminating over the possibility that Howard could have one fleet and 120th a different one. However, since I don't work at Howard or 98th shops, I can't say. There's all sort of hypotheticals if one assumes 500 7000s and 300 9000s, including the previously mentioned one of moving 5000s off Green and/or Pink, but it is now too speculative for me to get my head around. Quote
garmon757 Posted August 16 Report Posted August 16 16 hours ago, Busjack said: Again, I'm messing around, but the Board meeting video said 254 in service, and at that moment, we agreed. The conundrum is the gap between 7252 and 7315. As noted above, there are 40 cars in the factory and 10-12 on the ship, but there's a gap of 62. I might go to Skokie Shops to see if more have arrived. Quote
garmon757 Posted August 16 Report Posted August 16 10 hours ago, Busjack said: If Howard's capacity is 310, your theory doesn't work. Again, based on @Bus1883's numbers, 120th will be a major yard, not just a layover point. Howard Yard capacity is 274 cars. Quote
Busjack Posted August 16 Report Posted August 16 6 hours ago, garmon757 said: Howard Yard capacity is 274 cars. In any event, this came up to refute @Sam92's assertion about 98th, which he later said was a misunderstanding. Anyway, if one assumes a fleet increase of 100 based on exercising Option 1 in time of RLE, Howard won't be able to handle it. It still leaves the question whether maintenance is separate at Howard and 98th, or the cars are interchanged. Quote
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