Put your bets on what bus garages may close

[Busjack]

You told me 13 a few weeks and now it's 14? Make up your mind. Anyway, I very much doubt that North Park or Forest Glen will close. The three garages could very well be 74th, Archer and 103rd, but definately not Chicago because about 10-something routes are being cut and Chicago has like, 50+ routes at the moment, right? Correct me if i'm wrong.

I think this thread has gone very far off topic and that we should open another to discuss what will happen to the garages.

I agree, and did it.

The premise of this is "If the legislature continues its pattern of inaction." Thus, the title is put your bets.

Here are the other premises:

You go to transitchicago.com and download the 2008 budget. On page 10, Huberman says "These reductions in service will result in a recommendation to close three bus garages." The list of routes to be eliminated on November 4 (that's this Sunday, politicians) is on page 20, and on Jan 6 on page 21. Let's break them down by garages (excuse me if some have moved with the 3 track reassignments; the question mark on 2 is because it is not clear whether it is still 7 or 1)

A: 43, X49 53AL, 55A, 55N, 62H, 63W, 94, 129, 165--10

C: 19, X20, X54, 65, 70, 73, 76--7

F: 56, 56A, 64, 68, 69, 78, X80, 81W, 85A, 86, 88, 90N, 92, 152--14

K: 17, 38, 50, 120, 122, 124, 126, 127, 130, 134, 143, 156, 157--13

P: 11, 93, 96, 97, 125, 135, 136, 144, 145, 146, 147, 148, 200, 201, 205, 206--16

1: 2(?), 14, 26, X28, 30, 100, 103, 106, 108, 112, 121, 123--12

6: 44, X55, 59--3

7: 1, X3, X4, 8A, 49A--5

Of course, some of the Archer and Forest Glen routes use one or 2 buses, while the Chicago ones may use 6 or so, so the number of buses affected at Chicago might be greater.

Clearly, not both Forest Glen and North Park will be needed. Since 735 buses would be removed from service, that would indicate 3 about 250 bus capacity garages. North Park is more centrally located and larger than that, so Karnak predicts that it would survive over Forest Glen.

Also, with the number of cuts between C and K, not both are needed.

There are fewer cuts on the south side, but the only garages that (1) have a capacity of 250, and (2) have a large number of cuts are A and 1, and 1 would lose more buses.

You can throw in other variables, such as which are the oldest garages, which garages have the oldest equipment (the two don't match), which garages are politically connected, and eliminating which would cause the most deadheading.

OK, thanks to Buslover 88, the rest of you (except busfan4022, who has disqualified yourself with your snark) can have at it. Remember, this is a guessing thread (as buslover88 once said).

BTW, Chicago Garage can't have 50 some routes; that would be 1/3 of the whole system. It also appears that Chicago Garage takes the brunt of the second round of cuts, as CTA apparently believes that one mile intervals are sufficient for cross town service on the north side, if the "funding" doesn't materialize.

[Busjack]

Well 103rd'll have 14 routes if the cuts happen and will stay open in my view

Of course, that isn't the criterion for determining what stays open and what closes. Obviously, each garage (except maybe a couple on the north or west side) will retain more routes than it loses. However, that doesn't mean that they won't close. The way we people on the street knew that Lawndale Garage closed was that is bus numbers (roughly 1260-1299) showed up on Kedzie routes. When 52 closed (apparently because Jeffery was converted to articulated buses), the only route lost was Drexel; the rest went to A and 7, and eventually some went to 1. Similarly, when Limits closed, its routes went to 6 (then 69th) K and P. You can rest assured that "if the legislature continues its inaction" the personnel at all 8 garages can't say "we have some routes left." The routes at 3 of them are going to move.

You may discuss here what that does to picks and seniority rights, and whether, sometime in early January, the garages remaining open are going to swap their high floor equipment, if the stalemate continues. Of course, this becomes hypothetical if trainman is right that Blago will back down.

[trainman8119]

My guess would be Forest Glen, Archer, and possibly 74th. I would think maybe North Park over 74th, but there is a high volume of routes at NP and besides they could take over whatever Forest Glen would have.

I pick these three for a couple of simple reasons. Forest Glen is outdoors, Archer is old and ready to be rebuilt again and 74th is probably the smallest of the rebuilt garages, and could be consolidated into 77th and or 103, I would think with little fanfare. Archer could be combined into Kedzie and Chicago Aves...although previous threads had Chicago Buses already parked in driveways and on the streets. 77th won't be closed because of their importance in maintenace issues....plus it is the boneyard for the scraps. You might be able to move 103 into 74th and reduce some deadheading, but I don't think that 74th would be able to hold the large amount of artics...so 103 survives. By keeping the remaining, you would have a balance of North (NP), South (77/103) and Middle (C/K).

[sw4400]

I agree, and did it.

The premise of this is "If the legislature continues its pattern of inaction." Thus, the title is put your bets.

Here are the other premises:

You go to transitchicago.com and download the 2008 budget. On page 10, Huberman says "These reductions in service will result in a recommendation to close three bus garages." The list of routes to be eliminated on November 4 (that's this Sunday, politicians) is on page 20, and on Jan 6 on page 21. Let's break them down by garages (excuse me if some have moved with the 3 track reassignments; the question mark on 2 is because it is not clear whether it is still 7 or 1)

A: 43, X49 53AL, 55A, 55N, 62H, 63W, 94, 129, 165--10

C: 19, X20, X54, 65, 70, 73, 76--7

F: 56, 56A, 64, 68, 69, 78, X80, 81W, 85A, 86, 88, 90N, 92, 152--14

K: 17, 38, 50, 120, 122, 124, 126, 127, 130, 134, 143, 156, 157--13

P: 11, 93, 96, 97, 125, 135, 136, 144, 145, 146, 147, 148, 200, 201, 205, 206--16

1: 2(?), 14, 26, X28, 30, 100, 103, 106, 108, 112, 121, 123--12

6: 44, X55, 59--3

7: 1, X3, X4, 8A, 49A--5

Of course, some of the Archer and Forest Glen routes use one or 2 buses, while the Chicago ones may use 6 or so, so the number of buses affected at Chicago might be greater.

Clearly, not both Forest Glen and North Park will be needed. Since 735 buses would be removed from service, that would indicate 3 about 250 bus capacity garages. North Park is more centrally located and larger than that, so Karnak predicts that it would survive over Forest Glen.

Also, with the number of cuts between C and K, not both are needed.

There are fewer cuts on the south side, but the only garages that (1) have a capacity of 250, and (2) have a large number of cuts are A and 1, and 1 would lose more buses.

You can throw in other variables, such as which are the oldest garages, which garages have the oldest equipment (the two don't match), which garages are politically connected, and eliminating which would cause the most deadheading.

OK, thanks to Buslover 88, the rest of you (except busfan4022, who has disqualified yourself with your snark) can have at it. Remember, this is a guessing thread (as buslover88 once said).

BTW, Chicago Garage can't have 50 some routes; that would be 1/3 of the whole system. It also appears that Chicago Garage takes the brunt of the second round of cuts, as CTA apparently believes that one mile intervals are sufficient for cross town service on the north side, if the "funding" doesn't materialize.

I think it's just based on the quantity a garage can hold, Busjack. Obviously, the bigger, the better. That being said, this is my guess on the fate of each Bus Garage...

Archer Garage: Capacity:290 Buses Fate: Open

Chicago Garage: Capacity: 250 Buses Fate: Closed

Forest Glen Garage: Capacity: 310 Buses Fate: Open

Kedzie Garage: Capacity: 250 Buses Fate: Closed

North Park: Capacity: 440 Buses Fate: Open

74th Street Garage: Capacity: 250 Buses Fate: Closed

77th Street Garage: Capacity: 470 Buses Fate: Open

103rd Street Garage: Capacity: 250 Buses Fate: Closed

Room for 1,510 Buses total. Enough to run the remaining routes, IMO.

This is presuming that no funding comes through after Jan. 6th and all 82 Bus Routes have been eliminated and less than half are remaining.

Extra Prediction:

This is my prediction on the Bus Types currently in use by the CTA if said 'Doomsday' goes into effect...

4400-Series TMC RTS: Garaged and Retired These buses are less than a year away from retirement and will save the CTA $$ to keep them off the streets(less maintainance).

5300-Series Flxible Metros: Retired These buses should be gone before January 6th, but if any stragglers are still around, they'll meet the same fate as the 4400-Series.

5800-Series New Flyers: Unsure They are a small quantity and are requiring repairs more and more these days. It's a coin toss on this series.

6000-Series Flxible Metros: In Service... For Now Some of these buses will be kept around until we get enough New Flyers to replace them, then they will be Garaged and probably get an early retirement.

6400-Series NOVABus LFS: In Service These buses are still running strong. Their mid-life rehab will most likely be put on hiatus indefinately, which means a potentially early retirement for these buses down the road.

7500-Series NABI 60LFW: In Service Not the full 225 quantity, though. Just enough that is needed to operate any routes requiring them still. These buses are rolling junks, as many have pointed out. The CTA is penny-pinching right now, so the buses that require the least amount of money to repair will be put back in service, those that are too costly will be scrapped immediatly.

1000-Series New Flyers: In Service This is the CTA's future... most likely for a long time... these 1,030 Diesel New Flyers. They will be distributed to the still open garages for service as they come in. Chicago will be nearly 100% New Flyers by 2009 with or without the 'Doomsday' in place.

500-Series Optimas: In Service North Park will retain some, and wherever the U of C routes are put at, the remainder of these buses will be assigned there.

800-Series New Flyers: Unsure These are to be 'tested' for a year just to see how well they stand up to Chicago's harsh weather conditions, and will thus be retired after a year, like the 5900-Series was.

900-Series New Flyers: See '800-Series New Flyers'....

My opinion on what will happen....

[Busjack]

Recognizing, of course, that this is just opinion and speculation:

I think it's just based on the quantity a garage can hold, Busjack. Obviously, the bigger, the better. That being said, this is my guess on the fate of each Bus Garage...

Chicago Garage: Capacity: 250 Buses Fate: Closed

Forest Glen Garage: Capacity: 310 Buses Fate: Open

Kedzie Garage: Capacity: 250 Buses Fate: Closed

North Park: Capacity: 440 Buses Fate: Open

I throw into the mix that I doubt one could close two essentially west side garages (K and C) and keep open two far north side garages (F and P). Supposedly, in the early 1950s, P covered until FG was built. Also, while F may have a greater capacity, the number of buses currently assigned to it is about 256.

7500-Series NABI 60LFW: In Service Not the full 225 quantity, though. Just enough that is needed to operate any routes requiring them still. These buses are rolling junks, as many have pointed out. The CTA is penny-pinching right now, so the buses that require the least amount of money to repair will be put back in service, those that are too costly will be scrapped immediatly.

While rolling junks, one might also consider that they would be needed to increase capacity on some routes such as 22 or 36, when many of the parallel routes are cut. Also, because of FTA requirements, previously discussed, they might be parked but can't be scrapped until their 12 year FTA service life ends (earliest about 2014).

Because I also don't think two west side garages would be needed, I would agree with trainman only if A were moved to K. Chicago now having buses on the street would be irrelevant if it loses 7 routes, some with a number of buses assigned to them.

This does provide fodder for good debate.

[BusExpert32]

I know we all like to share our ideas about garages closings and bus retirements do to "Doomsday", but who's to say that the cuts will even come into play come Monday. I know I know, you all probably want to dispute this idea with me. But it's true. I will only start to believe some of this (complete retirement of 5300s and 4400s) if on Monday 39 bus routes will not be running. Until then, no one knows what will happen...

[cta5658]

Well here's a list of garages that'll have the remaining routes

Archer: 35, 39, 49, 52A, 53A, 54B, 62

Chicago: 20, 33, 53, 54, 57, 66, 72, 74

FG: 77, 80, 81, 85, 90, 154

Kedzie: 7, 10, 12, 18, 21, 52, 60

NP: 22, 36, 49B, X98, 151, 155

74: 8, 9, X9, 48, 55, 63, 67, 75

77: 3, 4, 6, 10, 24, 29, 71, 79, 87, 95W

103: N5, 15, 28, 34, 95E, 111, 119, 128, 169, 170, 171, 172, 173, 174, 192

[Busjack]

Well here's a list of garages that'll have the remaining routes

Nope, this is the list of garages that now have routes that will remain. Now, you may have an argument that the garages with the most remaining routes might not close if the stalemate continues. But you can't argue that if Huberman pulls the trigger, 8 garages will still be left. See post 2.

[CircleSeven]

This is highly difficult for me to bet of the three garages. I know damn well some of the routes that are listed shouldn't even be listed (X9 Ashland Express & 48 South Damen) and they could've at least have the 146 Michigan Express to be in the list to stay post-January.

But based on the routes that would be staying as of January 6th if CTA is deep in the hole. More in likely that Forest Glen would get the boot because most of their routes would be cut. The only routes that won't get cut that are currently from the Glen is 77 Belmont, 81 Lawrence, 84 Peterson, 85 Central and 90 Harlem. Now by the closest to proximity to North Park, the only 2 would take those routes are the 84 Peterson & 81 Lawrence. Chicago Avenue could take the 85 Central & 90 Harlem but you know the 90 Harlem would have one of the longest deadheads in their garage by nearly 5 miles. That leaves us with Belmont. I desperately hate to see two garages operate a big route like this but the closest garage is Chicago Avenue which is 3 Miles North of Pulaski. But Chicago won't serve enough buses to have a current headway for Belmont so North Park would have to serve the rest of the current headways.

Now for one of the west side Garages. I really hate to see the fate of Kedzie Garage to go but Many of their routes would see the ax if CTA doesn't get financial support.

There only 6 bus routes that will survive post January 6th. Now this would be kind of stupid because many of those bus routes serve a heavy amount of buses a day. The 52 Kedzie-California could be operated by Both Archer and Chicago. 12 Roosevelt could be served by Chicago Avenue but drivers would have to suffer almost driving a close to 13 block Deadhead from Erie to Roosevelt on Pulaski. Having the 12 operating from Archer would be a 3 mile deadhead and I know drivers wouldn't want to drive that far off. The 18 16th-18th Route would be better off operating at Archer because they won't be that much hurt because they don't operating much buses during the weekday or weekend and their new relieving point if the route is operated from Archer would be Western because the 49 is going to stay. The 60 Blue Island & 21 Cermak can be operated by Archer. They would have more then enough buses for those streets. That leaves the #7 Harrison. Chicago could take care of that.

Now for the south side. This is very difficult because many of those bus routes could have longer deadheads. But even if they have worst equipment, I strongly think that The BIG House will most likely stay after January 6th. That leaves with 74th & Wood which has the most equipted buses and 103rd & Stony Island which has most of the raggety buses. If they ax 103rd, they would still have to keep 103rd open for drivers to go to the restroom if the 28 would still be the terminal at 103rd and they would be operating from 77th. The route could be deadhead from 77th and use the rehabilitated Dan Ryan and the Bishop Ford to 103rd and start the route from there. Or, they could start and finish off the route at 79th which would be very unlikely because they want to dodge those long traffic lights on 79th Street and the street does get congested. This would be the same for the 15 Jeffery Local which they can deadhead from both ends from 79th to either 103rd and 47th Streets. Many routes serving 95th/State Red Line Station and deadhead back to 77th like the 95E/N5, 34/119 & the 111 which if they do start the route from Corliss, they would get off the Bishop Ford at 111th from 79th and the Ryan. That would leave the University of Chicago Routes. Those routes could be operated by 74th. The 173 wouldn't be that far to deadhead if they go back to the garage but it would be hard for the 192 to deadhead because when they do use LSD they would have to use the smaller streets to go back to 74th. The recommended deadhead would be Midway Plaisance, Payne, Morgan, Garfield and Ashland to 74th.

Roughly, My Picks for garages is Forest Glen, Kedzie & 103rd. But if they do ax 74th, then either 77th would do Ashland even though it would be a full 2 miles west from 77th or 103rd which would throw off the drivers because they would have to drive 5 miles from the Garage. Garfileld would have their longest deadhead using the Dan Ryan Expressway from 79th to Wentworth/Wells which would be a safer relieving point than Ashland Avenue. #55, #63 & #75 would be operated by 77th. The #8 and the #48 would be operated by Archer. The #8 Could be Shared at least 25% of the current headways and even have those nightcar runs from 77th which they would be closer to their garage.

If they would implement these deeper cuts this January, the easiest thing they should do is to haul off all of those buses that would soon to retire and send them to the garages where they would be closed. That's all I can say.

[sw4400]

Recognizing, of course, that this is just opinion and speculation:

This does provide fodder for good debate.

Indeed, it does, Busjack. I speculate those big garages as the ones remaining because the CTA wouldn't want the garages with smaller space left open. A lot of the routes left after January 6th could be moved to the closest big garage(s) that they could serve. For example, Archer and 77th could most likely handle the South and West side routes and North Park and Forest Glen can handle the North Side and Dowtown routes.

Again, all speculation here. Speculating this is such fun to do! It allows everybody to express what they think will happen and we wait and see what finally happens on Jan. 6th.

I know Nov. 4th also includes cuts, but I don't think these will force closures of garages.

[Buslover88]

But based on the routes that would be staying as of January 6th if CTA is deep in the hole. More in likely that Forest Glen would get the boot because most of their routes would be cut. The only routes that won't get cut that are currently from the Glen is 77 Belmont, 81 Lawrence, 84 Peterson, 85 Central and 90 Harlem. Now by the closest to proximity to North Park, the only 2 would take those routes are the 84 Peterson & 81 Lawrence. Chicago Avenue could take the 85 Central & 90 Harlem but you know the 90 Harlem would have one of the longest deadheads in their garage by nearly 5 miles. That leaves us with Belmont. I desperately hate to see two garages operate a big route like this but the closest garage is Chicago Avenue which is 3 Miles North of Pulaski. But Chicago won't serve enough buses to have a current headway for Belmont so North Park would have to serve the rest of the current headways.

Now for one of the west side Garages. I really hate to see the fate of Kedzie Garage to go but Many of their routes would see the ax if CTA doesn't get financial support.

There only 6 bus routes that will survive post January 6th. Now this would be kind of stupid because many of those bus routes serve a heavy amount of buses a day. The 52 Kedzie-California could be operated by Both Archer and Chicago. 12 Roosevelt could be served by Chicago Avenue but drivers would have to suffer almost driving a close to 13 block Deadhead from Erie to Roosevelt on Pulaski. Having the 12 operating from Archer would be a 3 mile deadhead and I know drivers wouldn't want to drive that far off. The 18 16th-18th Route would be better off operating at Archer because they won't be that much hurt because they don't operating much buses during the weekday or weekend and their new relieving point if the route is operated from Archer would be Western because the 49 is going to stay. The 60 Blue Island & 21 Cermak can be operated by Archer. They would have more then enough buses for those streets. That leaves the #7 Harrison. Chicago could take care of that.

Now for the south side. This is very difficult because many of those bus routes could have longer deadheads. But even if they have worst equipment, I strongly think that The BIG House will most likely stay after January 6th. That leaves with 74th & Wood which has the most equipted buses and 103rd & Stony Island which has most of the raggety buses. If they ax 103rd, they would still have to keep 103rd open for drivers to go to the restroom if the 28 would still be the terminal at 103rd and they would be operating from 77th. The route could be deadhead from 77th and use the rehabilitated Dan Ryan and the Bishop Ford to 103rd and start the route from there. Or, they could start and finish off the route at 79th which would be very unlikely because they want to dodge those long traffic lights on 79th Street and the street does get congested. This would be the same for the 15 Jeffery Local which they can deadhead from both ends from 79th to either 103rd and 47th Streets. Many routes serving 95th/State Red Line Station and deadhead back to 77th like the 95E/N5, 34/119 & the 111 which if they do start the route from Corliss, they would get off the Bishop Ford at 111th from 79th and the Ryan. That would leave the University of Chicago Routes. Those routes could be operated by 74th. The 173 wouldn't be that far to deadhead if they go back to the garage but it would be hard for the 192 to deadhead because when they do use LSD they would have to use the smaller streets to go back to 74th. The recommended deadhead would be Midway Plaisance, Payne, Morgan, Garfield and Ashland to 74th.

Roughly, My Picks for garages is Forest Glen, Kedzie & 103rd. But if they do ax 74th, then either 77th would do Ashland even though it would be a full 2 miles west from 77th or 103rd which would throw off the drivers because they would have to drive 5 miles from the Garage. Garfileld would have their longest deadhead using the Dan Ryan Expressway from 79th to Wentworth/Wells which would be a safer relieving point than Ashland Avenue. #55, #63 & #75 would be operated by 77th. The #8 and the #48 would be operated by Archer. The #8 Could be Shared at least 25% of the current headways and even have those nightcar runs from 77th which they would be closer to their garage.

Altough I agree with you on almost everything, my bet is Forest Glen, Chicago and 74th that would close. I think Forest Glen will close based on what you stated and it's a crying shame any garage has to close. I think Chicago will close because a few of their routes are in Kedzie's (dare I say North Park) area. I think 74th will close because they would have only about 6 or 7 routes left. I think #55 and #9 might be moved to Archer and the rest would be moved to 77th.

I'm only guessing here, but I could be right. Does anybody know what'll happen to the lands of the closed garages? Will they stay vacant until the CTA can get enough money again and rebulid or will something else go there? Also, does anyone know if any garages will be closed Sunday when the first cuts take place?

I think it's a damn shame we have to resort on betting which garages will close. This whole thing is very depressing and many people are not going to find help.

[BusExpert32]

Altough I agree with you on almost everything, my bet is Forest Glen, Chicago and 74th that would close. I think Forest Glen will close based on what you stated and it's a crying shame any garage has to close. I think Chicago will close because a few of their routes are in Kedzie's (dare I say North Park) area. I think 74th will close because they would have only about 6 or 7 routes left. I think #55 and #9 might be moved to Archer and the rest would be moved to 77th.

I'm only guessing here, but I could be right. Does anybody know what'll happen to the lands of the closed garages? Will they stay vacant until the CTA can get enough money again and rebulid or will something else go there? Also, does anyone know if any garages will be closed Sunday when the first cuts take place?

I think it's a damn shame we have to resort on betting which garages will close. This whole thing is very depressing and many people are not going to find help.

I would have to say that no garages will be closed Sunday with Doomsday or not because nothing was mentioned about any garage closings for the first Doomsday situation by the CTA. About betting on which garages will close, here's my bet: no garages will close. It is an appropriate bet.

[Buslover88]

I would have to say that no garages will be closed Sunday with Doomsday or not because nothing was mentioned about any garage closings for the first Doomsday situation by the CTA. About betting on which garages will close, here's my bet: no garages will close. It is an appropriate bet.

Sorry to dissapoint you BusExpert32, but three garages will be closed come January 6. CTA officals have said that and it's time you face the facts.

[BusExpert32]

Sorry to dissapoint you BusExpert32, but three garages will be closed come January 6. CTA officals have said that and it's time you face the facts.

I'm sorry to dissapoint you Buslover88, but they clearly stated that that will only occur if insuffecient funding will continue until January. Which I am betting against. I for one believe that Sunday's cuts won't happen, but in my opinion this funding situation will be solved by January 6th. This is a two sided situation, and it's you who really need to face the facts.

[Buslover88]

I'm sorry to dissapoint you Buslover88, but they clearly stated that that will only occur if insuffecient funding will continue until January. Which I am betting against. I for one believe that Sunday's cuts won't happen, but in my opinion this funding situation will be solved by January 6th. This is a two sided situation, and it's you who really need to face the facts.

Knowing this state, the insuffecient funding will continue until (or even further, if the state permits ) January. I believe Sunday's cuts will in fact happen, I mean, we're just about 2 days away from the cuts! What makes you think the money will suddenly pop up this and next month (for the January 6th cuts), much less Sunday's cuts? Tell me that. For your information, the facts are spelled out right infront of me, you and the rest of the members: the cuts are bound to happen.

Do you remember the cuts of '97? That will likely happen again. Like they say, History repeats itself :rolleyes:

[BusExpert32]

Knowing this state, the insuffecient funding will continue until (or even further, if the state permits ) January. I believe Sunday's cuts will in fact happen, I mean, we're just about 2 days away from the cuts! What makes you think the money will suddenly pop up this and next month (for the January 6th cuts), much less Sunday's cuts? Tell me that. For your information, the facts are spelled out right infront of me, you and the rest of the members: the cuts are bound to happen.

Do you remember the cuts of '97? That will likely happen again. Like they say, History repeats itself

Yes the cuts of '97 were dreadful, especially the #41 Elston route for me. It was a very good route for me; too bad it got cut. If the cuts are bound to happen, then we'll see what'll happen on Sunday or Monday for that matter. We'll see which one of us will be right or wrong. We'll see indeed. We'll see. But until then, anything can happen... About the money you mentioned, somekind of plan only has to be approved and the CTA will be saved from this round of cuts. All of the money will not be here at once, it will only be a funding deal for the future. Not for the past. If it were for the past, if it ever were, then yes, a large amount of money would be needed pronto. But we're only awaiting a funding deal to be made that will cover future funding costs.

[Buslover88]

If the cuts are bound to happen, then we'll see what'll happen on Sunday or Monday for that matter. We'll see which one of us will be right or wrong. We'll see indeed. We'll see. But until then, anything can happen... About the money you mentioned, somekind of g plan only has to be approved and the CTA will be saved from this round of cuts. All of the money will not be here at once, it will only be a funding deal for the future. Not for the past. If it were for the past, if it ever were, then yes, a large amount of money would be needed pronto. But we're only awaiting a funding deal to be made that will cover future funding costs.

You're right, BusExpert32, why don't we all just sit here and wait for Sunday to happen? I will be more than happy to send someone with you to wait . Anyway, what do you mean by only? This is big and people's lives (not as in death, as in getting to work, school, etc.) hang on the balance. You think problems like this can be avoided just like that? Please snap into reality, they can't, sorry. By the way, next time when you post, try spelling more carefully, I can't understand you at some points.

[BusExpert32]

You're right, BusExpert32, why don't we all just sit here and wait for Sunday to happen? I will be more than happy to send someone with you to wait . Anyway, what do you mean by only? This is big and people's lives (not as in death, as in getting to work, school, etc.) hang on the balance. You think problems like this can be avoided just like that? Please snap into reality, they can't, sorry. By the way, next time when you post, try spelling more carefully, I can't understand you at some points.

First off, there are no spelling errors in my previous post. Here's my question for you: what does " I will be more than happy to send someone with you to wait." mean- seriously what do you have in mind. And I was right, how about we wait till Sunday. Then we'll know for sure who's right or wrong. Yes, I know people's "lives" hang in the balance, but all of my opinions help the people, your's don't. You obviously believe there will be cuts, and the people are probably with me on this one (as in, they are hoping for a down to the wire bailout plan).

[Buslover88]

First off, there are no spelling errors in my previous post. Here's my question for you: what does " I will be more than happy to send someone with you to wait." mean- seriously what do you have in mind. And I was right, how about we wait till Sunday. Then we'll know for sure who's right or wrong. Yes, I know people's "lives" hang in the balance, but all of my opinions help the people, your's don't. You obviously believe there will be cuts, and the people are probably with me on this one (as in, they are hoping for a down to the wire bailout plan).

If you look again, there was. I was being scarcastic to you, you couldn't get the hint? My opinions don't help? I don't think your opinions are helping because you're simply trying to get everyone happy until the last minute. I, like many other people at the moment, do believe that there will probably (read that next time) be cuts. I'll wait and see who else thinks so since you seem alone in thinking that.

[BusExpert32]

If you look again, there was. I was being scarcastic to you, you couldn't get the hint? My opinions don't help? I don't think your opinions are helping because you're simply trying to get everyone happy until the last minute. I, like many other people at the moment, do believe that there will probably (read that next time) be cuts. I'll wait and see who else thinks so since you seem alone in thinking that.

Ok, I think we know what we both think will happen as of now. I'm out for now. I will be waiting for Sunday......

[Busjack]

Yes the cuts of '97 were dreadful, especially the #41 Elston route for me. It was a very good route for me; too bad it got cut. If the cuts are bound to happen, then we'll see what'll happen on Sunday or Monday for that matter. We'll see which one of us will be right or wrong. We'll see indeed. We'll see. But until then, anything can happen... About the money you mentioned, somekind of plan only has to be approved and the CTA will be saved from this round of cuts. All of the money will not be here at once, it will only be a funding deal for the future. Not for the past. If it were for the past, if it ever were, then yes, a large amount of money would be needed pronto. But we're only awaiting a funding deal to be made that will cover future funding costs.

First off, there are no spelling errors in my previous post.

The spell checker on Firefox flagged what'll and somekind.

Buslover88, you are getting better and better.

Busexpert, if you don't want to play by the permises of this thread.... You and the governor have indicated that there shouldn't be a shutdown, but you don't have to chase buslover all over this board to keep reasserting that. We got your point.

[cta_44499_FG]

Altough I agree with you on almost everything, my bet is Forest Glen, Chicago and 74th that would close. I think Forest Glen will close based on what you stated and it's a crying shame any garage has to close. I think Chicago will close because a few of their routes are in Kedzie's (dare I say North Park) area. I think 74th will close because they would have only about 6 or 7 routes left. I think #55 and #9 might be moved to Archer and the rest would be moved to 77th.

I'm only guessing here, but I could be right. Does anybody know what'll happen to the lands of the closed garages? Will they stay vacant until the CTA can get enough money again and rebulid or will something else go there? Also, does anyone know if any garages will be closed Sunday when the first cuts take place?

I think it's a damn shame we have to resort on betting which garages will close. This whole thing is very depressing and many people are not going to find help.

I agree with many of the points with a few issues. Since I'm from FG, let's examine that. Lets look route by route at the Jan 6 survivors:

77 Belmont: Being the furthest south e-w route operated from FG, I don't see it making too much of a difference operating out of Chicago with some service from NP. There is no arguement with that. However, it would require some scheduling changes as far as pullouts. Many can still start at Belmont and Kimball as a lot of our pullouts do, however, when and which ones do you start there? Do you have some reliefs taking place at Pulaski (Chicago Garage) and the others at Kimball (NP), or just have everyone relieve there. Same for pullouts. It wouldn't make any sense to have NP busses pullout and start at Kedzie and completely miss the L if going east, so going to Kimball wouldn't make much a difference. Currently the only route that has two pts to relieve is the 151, but thats because of the split garage operation. But with a route such as the 77, this may be different.

81 Lawrence: Again, another questionable situation. Bar none, it would make most sense to have all pullouts start from Jeff Park. Reliefs may be a problem. Without any connectable route except the Blue Line, how does a Chicago garage operator get the Jeff w/o having to be paid the travel time to go all the way out of the way? North Park operators would have to walk to Lawrence and ride in, so should all NP busses pullout? Who gets the nite cars, assumming those are maintaned?

85 Central: Currently it operates from Harrison/Central on the south to Bryn Mawr/Elston on the north, which is as we all know the Forest Glen garage property. This is where all the reliefs and pullouts take place. With FG gone, where do you terminate the 85 at then? Cut the route back to Jeff Park? Should all pullouts start from Chicago/Central or Jeff Park?

90 Harlem: This has a long deadhead. Thats the problem. The relief situation here is a lot better though, because it could simply be done at the southern terminal (Harlem/Lake Green Line) then then northern terminal where it is done now (Harlem/Higgins Blue Line).

Any thoughts?

[Busjack]

Street relief and washroom locations are good points.

I note that at one time, Belmont was a North-Cicero garage route. Pulaski would seem to make sense as a relief point.

The proposed killing of 93 would make it hard to set up relief points on crosstown routes from North Park, unless the drivers walk over to Kimball (or in the Lawrence case, south to Lawrence). However, since Lawrence is within 1/4 mile of North Park, I can't see it going out of any other garage.

Until I knew better, I sort of assumed that Central was a North-Cicero route; apparently it hasn't been the case for at 50 years. I never understood the purpose of the Jefferson Park-Bryn Mawr leg, except to serve the Forest Glen garage. Maybe you can inform us if it has another purpose (given the availability of 85A until the next doomsday).

90: As you know, I don't favor it having been extended to Lake, in an era of scarce resources. Assuming that other cross-town routes are eliminated, the nearest relief point would then be North Ave. As you posit it, either the reliever would have to use the Green Line to Lake-Harlem, the Belmont bus to Harlem, or get some way to the Blue Line. Or CTA could turn the whole route over to Pace, which wants to establish a corridor from Tinley Park to Glenview (ha, see if that ever happens).

[BusExpert32]

The spell checker on Firefox flagged what'll and somekind.

Buslover88, you are getting better and better.

Busexpert, if you don't want to play by the permises of this thread.... You and the governor have indicated that there shouldn't be a shutdown, but you don't have to chase buslover all over this board to keep reasserting that. We got your point.

Does anyone really have a problem with me misspelling what'll and somekind? I think we all understand what these words mean. Yes Buslover and I were disaggreing about the Doomsday scenerio, but you have to take into consideration that if he did nothing wrong then he would've stopped posting on the topic, but he continued just as I did. So we both wanted to get our points across. Blaming only me for this would be totally unfair. And it was I who stopped the topic at the end. And I am playing by the permises of this thread. I've already placed my bet, that there will be no garage closings. And if I'm not mistaken at this point my bet was the only correct one, but then again there still is a lot of time until January 6th and anything can happen. And if playing by the permises is only pointing out spelling errors, then I'll join in that if you all what me to. And if you can't understand me, we were both chasing each other around the board. So why would this be my fault?

[BusExpert32]

Ok, I think we know what we both think will happen as of now. I'm out for now. I will be waiting for Sunday......

It's not even Sunday or Monday, and I was right. No cuts for November 4th. I just couldn't and wouldn't believe the CTA would fall into such a disaster such as the one proposed. Just too many restrictions to happen. The CTA might have never been able to rebuild. I also don't know why no one agreed with me on this. To those who still believe in Doomsday now: after two bailouts, it seems that doomsday's would be not so harshly taken as of now by the passengers and other people. (I'm not being mean or anything, just proving my point).