700-series XE40 - Deliveries & Assignments

[sw4400]

3 hours ago, BusHunter said:

The Sun Times is really drinking the Kool Aid on the electric buses. Not only do they state CTA is getting the 30 or so electric buses, they state when CTA buys it's #1000 bus replacement fleet they are going to buy possibly hundreds of electric buses. The CTA better start playing Powerball!!

http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/7/71/1247358/cta-electric-bus-fleet

Interesting, the CTA claims it's only saving 25K running the #700's per year/per bus. That seems kind of low to me. Why are places like UPS saving 80K, that's like 3 times that. It must be because the buses only run roughly 4-6 hours a day. If they ran 24/7, they could have a savings 4 times that, if the buses would hold up, but they should initially. As they get older they might need some rest.though. I don't know if the fuel budget now is a third less than it was overall cause gas was a dollar more last year, the real savings for this year might be 17K, but still they max profits running them hard. So while they may be 800K a piece, if the savings is 800K/lifetime then that's a free bus or 800K off the budget if you figure this is coming out of your pocket (operating budget) and not the feds. The trouble is the upfront costs. If they could figure out a way to lease buses, it might be cheaper.

Thinking of all the garages I was thinking, you know only FG has yet to not run an alternative fuels/hybrid bus.

But then there were these long ago.

https://chicagohistorytoday.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/ctas-original-green-buses/

Leasing may not be the way to go.... a friend of mine leased a new car and that seems to be a big headache.... the lease terms say that the car can't be driven over 1,000 miles in a year or else they'll start to incur a fee of 20 cents each additional mile. They have to get the oil changes done at the dealership and get specific style tires which run $100/tire.

IMO, leasing any kind of vehicle seems like more of a headache then buying it outright or in the case of a car, putting a down payment on it and making monthly payments until the car is paid off without a lease.

[Busjack]

11 hours ago, BusHunter said:

The Sun Times is really drinking the Kool Aid on the electric buses. Not only do they state CTA is getting the 30 or so electric buses, they state when CTA buys it's #1000 bus replacement fleet they are going to buy possibly hundreds of electric buses. The CTA better start playing Powerball!!

http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/7/71/1247358/cta-electric-bus-fleet

Interesting, the CTA claims it's only saving 25K running the #700's per year/per bus. That seems kind of low to me. Why are places like UPS saving 80K, that's like 3 times that. It must be because the buses only run roughly 4-6 hours a day. If they ran 24/7, they could have a savings 4 times that, if the buses would hold up, but they should initially. As they get older they might need some rest.though. I don't know if the fuel budget now is a third less than it was overall cause gas was a dollar more last year, the real savings for this year might be 17K, but still they max profits running them hard. So while they may be 800K a piece, if the savings is 800K/lifetime then that's a free bus or 800K off the budget if you figure this is coming out of your pocket (operating budget) and not the feds. The trouble is the upfront costs. If they could figure out a way to lease buses, it might be cheaper.

Thinking of all the garages I was thinking, you know only FG has yet to not run an alternative fuels/hybrid bus.

But then there were these long ago.

https://chicagohistorytoday.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/ctas-original-green-buses/

Au contrare. The Sun-Times is the only outlet that has printed more than Mayor Rahm Emanuel's Press Release, and actually has the CMAQ application, which Tcmetro posted here, and the details of the proposed funding. I suggest that you go up the thread and read them.

Among other things, the application points out that the current savings are based on the buses having to be charged in the garage as opposed to being topped off en route.

8 hours ago, sw4400 said:

Leasing may not be the way to go.... a friend of mine leased a new car and that seems to be a big headache...

 

This IS NOT Bob Rohrman. This is strictly a financial deal. 4000-4049 were leased. The 6400s were on a lease back. Read the back of the CTA budget.

[Busjack]

Update to my prior post: The real difference is when Jan offers to lease you a Corolla for $199/month, it assumes a residual value after 36 months, when you can turn in or buy the car. The buses are on 12-year leases, and when CTA gives a bus away, note that they say it is "fully depreciated."

[BusHunter]

2 hours ago, Busjack said:

Au contrare. The Sun-Times is the only outlet that has printed more than Mayor Rahm Emanuel's Press Release, and actually has the CMAQ application, which Tcmetro posted here, and the details of the proposed funding. I suggest that you go up the thread and read them.

Among other things, the application points out that the current savings are based on the buses having to be charged in the garage as opposed to being topped off en route.

 

I see you've been drinking the Kool Aid too. These buses will always be experimental due to their price and I think CTA is jumping the gun here. You know out of all North American TA's, the only ones with the New Flyer Electric bus is us and the Winnipeg one and WMATA bought one that's it. Then we are going ahead and buying the first major purchase of these. I seem to remember the NABI artics being the first major purchase of that model as well. At least it's not that many buses, and the Altoona test does say that this is the quietest most efficient model out of all electrics. But that's a company spokesman that's saying that too. NF seems to be moving on with it's XE60 model artic electric. It has sent Connecticut transit, I think there called CT transit it's first complete XE60 demo to try out and it plans on sending that one to Altoona this year. The XE60 has an extended range battery, which is the next generation of these buses. While CTA is off building electric towers, the technology is being worked on to make that obsolete. With the price of gas falling, I think electric buses are on an uphill climb, hybrid or CNG seems to be the way to go.

On the Sun-times article, I think it's misleading to lead people into thinking they will be ordering massive amounts of these buses when 27 buses is not massive to me and that seems irresponsible, but that sells newspapers I guess.   

[Busjack]

15 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Then we are going ahead and buying the first major purchase of these. I

That isn't true, LA is buying 25. 700-1 might have been the first purchase by a major TA.

And, the massive amount part comes from the CMAQ application. Sun-Times does not sell any newspapers from an electric bus story compared to some police department cover up.

[BusHunter]

The technology is so new, that New Flyer sent a demo to the east coast on a 6 city tour to get the east coast operators interested. That might be the Winnipeg bus. While we are contemplating buying electric, places like Boston are actually upgrading it fleet with an up to 725 Xcelsior bus contract going out. 500 of those buses are alternative propulsion. That's more in that one contract than all our hybrids combined. While electric may be nicer than hybrid it has more risks needs more infrastructure and is more expensive. There are alot of cities than have many hybrids and we don't see them buying electric.

Here's the Boston link...

http://boereport.com/2015/10/22/boston-awards-new-flyer-a-contract-for-up-to-725-xcelsior-buses/ 

[Busjack]

In that CTA gave up on converting DLFRs to DELFRs, Pace gave up on hybrids, and the crash in diesel fuel prices making the difference in efficiency between diesel and hybrid buses marginal, MBTA may have goofed. Certainly no payback in buying a hybrid bus to save half a mile per gallon when the hybrid bus costs $175K more than a diesel bus. As discussed before with regard to MPGe, an electric bus gives you about a 16 MPGe advantage.

 

And you are the one pointing out that the "Clean Air Hybrid Bus" smokes.

[sw4400]

Nova Bus is also testing an all-electric bus like New Flyer.... the LFSE. I'm not sure what the results of it's tests are, but if it holds true like the XE40's, then CTA will have to see which is the lower priced all-electric bus, because they no doubt will go with whoever puts in a lower bid. NABI and Eldorado don't seem to be in the picture for all-electric buses right now(Eldorado seems to have built what looks like a Hybrid of sorts in pictures on their website).

[Busjack]

6 hours ago, sw4400 said:

Nova Bus is also testing an all-electric bus like New Flyer.... the LFSE. I'm not sure what the results of it's tests are, but if it holds true like the XE40's, then CTA will have to see which is the lower priced all-electric bus, because they no doubt will go with whoever puts in a lower bid. NABI and Eldorado don't seem to be in the picture for all-electric buses right now(Eldorado seems to have built what looks like a Hybrid of sorts in pictures on their website).

...

Yes. That's part of a Quebec, especially Montreal push to be 100% electric by 2030 (STM page; Novabus announcement).

As da Mare's press release stated and I pointed out, there will need to be a new request for proposals for these buses.

[BusHunter]

One more thing to take into consideration, when an electric bus runs late, it can't short turn and it can't leave the terminal for 5 minutes while it charges so those buses will remain late for some time. Here's a link that explains those same points.

http://publictransport.about.com/od/Transit_Vehicles/a/Electric-Buses-An-Introduction.htm

I wonder who has sold the most electric buses in the U.S.? It must be between Proterra and BYD, that seem to be thriving off the cali operators. Kind of interesting, I didn't know that in Cali, you can't buy a diesel bus any more? At least that's what the above article says.

[sw4400]

Even the article really doesn't state that the CTA will be replacing a full fleet of 1,030 diesel buses with all-electric buses. Here are some direct quotes...

"The CTA will use any new electric buses to “further inform in-service tests of the electric bus technology” and to help the agency decide the right mix of buses when it makes its next major procurement, a purchase of more than 1,000 buses in 2020, the CTA wrote in comments to the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning.

Those new buses would presumably be used to replace more than half the CTA’s existing fleet of 1,888 buses, offering the agency the chance to convert to a majority-electric fleet if funding allows.

They have been averaging 97 miles a day on one charge from a garage. If outfitted with a new “enroute” charging system, they could achieve as many as 700 miles a day, CTA officials told CMAP.

“Clearly our buses are workhorses. They drive hundreds of miles every day. It’s a lot of stop-and-start driving. We’ve tested two of them, and they perform very well,” Steele said.

“We want to increase the sample size so we have a broader test. Then, four or five years from now, we’ll have enough information to decide what our next large purchase will be.”

The standard-sized electric buses would replace standard-sized diesel buses and not prevent the CTA from buying additional articulated buses to prevent a decrease in capacity, Steele said."

The "Enroute Charging System" might be the only way to utilize all-electric buses on CTA's routes, unless they can find a way to install more or larger Li-Ion batteries in it's buses. On average, it's said the buses get on average 97 miles from one charge from the garage(I read somewhere that it's more like 80 miles on one charge). Typically, buses go 100 miles per day, so a all-electric bus would probably have to average about 120 miles on a charge(100 for the route travel, and about 20 to get to the home garage before the batteries die). But, one has to wonder how much the Enroute Charging System costs per bus. Using a cell phone battery charger as an example of price for durability and power, I have a nice cell phone charger that cost me $100(one of the most expensive my phone company sells..... it's a 6000 mAh battery charger). The larger the charger, the more money it'll cost to buy to use, and an Enroute Charging System is just a fancy name for a large battery charger that is no doubt activated when the engine computer records "Low Power" by the batteries, or when the Bus Operator presses a button or flicks a switch on the dash panel.

Regarding the D40LF replacement in 2020, the article stating "right mix of buses" "what our next large purchase will be" tells me that this won't be an all-electric bus order for 2020, but a mix of clean diesel/hybrid diesel-electric and all-electric. The technology is improving, but it might still be more trial and error before all-electric buses can be procured in large quantities(especially in the ballpark of 1,000+). Maybe 700-800 clean diesel/diesel-electric buses and 100-200 all-electric buses is a feasible number by that time. To do a half/half split might be a lot to be riding on.

[Juniorz]

I see a lot of assumptions but let's look at the outlook. The year is 2016, the technology is now just being introduced within the transit industry.

Now reference when the technology was introduced back in the 1990s with the GM EV1. While not successful, it lead us to the introduction of the Toyota Prius. When introduced, the prius cost more to build than to actually sale, which was the case with the 1st gen Chevy Volt. As these models progressed forward, so did the cost to build them and sale them, which are extremely lower now then they were when introduced to masses, 1997 and 2011 respectively.

My point is, when looking at the cost now and in 2020, the technology will have been in production for 6 years and that would have allowed New Flyer to perfect the technology where it will become economically feasible to began to see a profit of it's XE-series and from what i'm gathering, the cta has enough proof to move forward with the purchase and technology.

Think ahead when looking at this purchase, not at this very moment.

[sw4400]

1 hour ago, Juniorz said:

I see a lot of assumptions but let's look at the outlook. The year is 2016, the technology is now just being introduced within the transit industry.

Now reference when the technology was introduced back in the 1990s with the GM EV1. While not successful, it lead us to the introduction of the Toyota Prius. When introduced, the prius cost more to build than to actually sale, which was the case with the 1st gen Chevy Volt. As these models progressed forward, so did the cost to build them and sale them, which are extremely lower now then they were when introduced to masses, 1997 and 2011 respectively.

My point is, when looking at the cost now and in 2020, the technology will have been in production for 6 years and that would have allowed New Flyer to perfect the technology where it will become economically feasible to began to see a profit of it's XE-series and from what i'm gathering, the cta has enough proof to move forward with the purchase and technology.

Think ahead when looking at this purchase, not at this very moment.

You are correct, Juniorz. Technology will be refined between 2016 and 2020 with the all-electric buses. But, CTA will have to see how the technology is by the end of 2017 to start the bidding process in 2018 for the next wave of buses so a manufacturer can be awarded the contract and provide a pilot bus by the end of 2019 for acceptance and adjustments to the order to commence in 2020. So, in 18 months, the buses will have to show mileage improvements per charge to 100-120 for the CTA to consider a large fleet of them, as an average CTA bus logs 100 miles/day. Getting to the cost factor, and using the Chevy Volt MSRP was $34,000 for a 1996 model. The 2016 Volt, with taxes, fees, etc..., starts at $33,170 according to the MSRP on Chevrolet's website, so only a $930 difference from 1996 to 2016. The cost doesn't seem much lower than it was. Now if the MSRP in 1996 was $34,000 and now $25,000, I'd say yes, that is extremely lower. If a all-electric 40' on average is $800,000-$900,000, by 2020, it might be about the same, maybe closer to $770,000-$800,000. Still not as cheap as a clean diesel($500,000) and a diesel/electric hybrid($650,000-$700,000). CTA would have to come up with the difference of $500,000 per bus because Federal grants only provide $300,000 per bus, and I don't see that going up anytime soon with Republicans holding the line about budget impasses all the time, and a potential Presidential Candidate in Donald Trump that wants to get into office and turn this nation back into a pre-1950's era where minorities are treated like crap or kept out of the country, women probably belong in the kitchen in his vision of the American life. And it seems like America is drinking his Kool-Aid. I'm actually afraid that if he gets elected it'll be four years(possibly eight) where the U.N actually kicks the U.S out and he makes us allies with Russia and Korea. Sorry for being OT, but it kinda goes all together since Federal funds pay for these buses and the future of our Federal Government looks bleaker than it does currently with this soon-to-be Dictator getting steam and somehow getting America to side with him.

One has to wonder if Nova Bus and New Flyer will still be in business here in the U.S in the Trump-era if he gets in and alienates us from our U.N Allies and bordering countries(he's talking about that wall around Mexico, I believe the U.K did or is pondering banning him from coming there), since Canada is the home to the main HQ for both transit companies. New Flyer may have parts from overseas for their buses transported into Canada and the U.S, I know Nova Bus does as they are a part of Prevost and Volvo(Sweden). And if M.A.N axles are used on the buses, then Germany comes into play there. Who knows if any parts of Nova Bus or New Flyer are manufactured in Mexico.

[Juniorz]

I hope you are using cost figures for the prius instead of the volt. The volt was introduced in 2011, the prius 1997 and if you really looked at the cost of production, the prius is more profitable now than it has ever been. GM will eventually see a profit with the second generation Volt. They knew the first generation would make them lose profits, which I think New Flyer knew when producing the XE-series.

[sw4400]

55 minutes ago, Juniorz said:

I hope you are using cost figures for the prius instead of the volt. The volt was introduced in 2011, the prius 1997 and if you really looked at the cost of production, the prius is more profitable now than it has ever been. GM will eventually see a profit with the second generation Volt. They knew the first generation would make them lose profits, which I think New Flyer knew when producing the XE-series.

Not then, but I am now....

MSRP of the 2001 Prius(U.S Debut) $19,995. Base MSRP of the 2016 Prius $24,200. Looks like it went up in price since 2001. So, point one of the all-electric bus becoming more equal to the diesel and diesel-electric hybrid costs, not likely so long as they are available they will be the cheaper option. The Federal Government still only gives $300,000 per bus, which means that for the forseeable future, if the CTA wanted all-electric buses in a large quantity(especially to replace 1,030 diesel buses in a large amount), would have to make up the difference in cost, which right now is $500,000 and probably won't drop that much by the time a contract would have to be drawn up for the replacements to begin to arrive in 2020. That, plus the Donald factor and how he's turning all our allies against us around the world and reveling about the Presidents of Russia and North Korea and how he likes them. But that's another matter that could end up being trouble if the U.S Citizens blindly elect him into office. They aren't seeing the actual truth about him and how he can affect foreign trade and relations with the U.S. The next President could impact if the CTA can even do business with New Flyer and Nova Bus, both of which are based out of Canada even though they have U.S plants. I know that Sweden has ties with Nova Bus(Volvo) and New Flyer may have ties with some overseas countries, and they may have some ties down in Mexico(a place where Trump wants to put a big wall blocking it from the U.S). I know a lot of car dealerships have some parts manufactured in Mexico, I'm sure larger vehicles like buses have parts manufactured down there too...

New Flyer does state that they do have some "very limited" suppliers outside the U.S and Canada. Where they are located, it doesn't say...

http://www.newflyer.com/index/2015-05-25-supply-chain-disclosure

Anyway, I'm getting too OT about Trump and the Federal Government, but bottom line, he gets into office, and things could change and not for the better in the U.S.

[Busjack]

9 hours ago, BusHunter said:

One more thing to take into consideration, when an electric bus runs late, it can't short turn and it can't leave the terminal for 5 minutes while it charges so those buses will remain late for some time. Here's a link that explains those same points.

It is a matter of scheduling adequate recovery time.

Also, that writer was all uptight about having to put a charging station on private property, but CTA owns its turnarounds.

9 hours ago, BusHunter said:

I didn't know that in Cali, you can't buy a diesel bus any more?

Southern California has been all CNG for about 20 years. The SF area uses hybrids, and there were the stories that NF was foisting junk on MUNI.

[Busjack]

6 hours ago, Juniorz said:

I hope you are using cost figures for the prius instead of the volt.

One must consider that both are hybrids, although March Car and Driver points out that the Volt has an EV range, while the Malibu has essentially the same system, but does not.

Only real automotive equivalents would be the Nissan Leaf and Tesla, but Tesla is skewed because it is sold as a luxury car.

[BusHunter]

Electric cars haven't really sold well here in the states. The Leaf has had problems that has kept it from being sold in mass numbers and the Volt has been having problems with car fires. For the price they are selling for, you could buy a full size car and when the batteries die that could be up to an 8K cost. The Prius is way too small to ask 25K, when you can get a Dodge Dart for 10K less and have a slightly bigger car. Then you have the issue of how to refill the battery. If your battery is low and you don't know where a recharge place is, you're stuck.  So the cars have a few gimmicks.

On the bus front, like sw says the price alone will keep the number of electric buses down, because just for a few buses, you are talking a million dollars in overhead. I don't see how they could afford more than 50-100 buses. Even now they only have 250 something hybrids, so there's no way they could have that many electric buses, if you figure it took 3 orders to get that.

 

[sw4400]

Here's a little bit of interesting inside info a journalist dug up about the all-electric buses the CTA procured..... they had nothing to do with the missing 25 Novas in the tail end of the order that the CTA decided to do without.... they were for Hybrid Articulated buses the CTA requested funding for from the Federal Government. They requested the grant be changed for 8.1 million for 26 Hybrid Articulated buses to 27 40' All-Electric buses. Kind of a ridiculous move right now, IMO. With CTA going into the BRT picture downtown and possibly on Western and Ashland(unless they tanked those projects), those additional 26 Hybrid Artics could've been used. Electric buses are very new to the transit market and anyone who is a transit buff or has driven for a major TA like CTA knows the buses are driven all to hell in all sorts of weather conditions.... extreme cold, heat, rain, snow. CTA is rushing very headstrong into the Electric bus market just on a few good years with 700 and 701, but I don't think two years is enough time to really say "we're ready to think about replacing half our roster of 1,000 buses that will be up for retirement in the next decade with All-Electric buses." The buses are very expensive(about $300,000 more than a 40' Diesel bus) and thus why the grant for the Hybrid Artics has been tanked and changed for the 27 All-Electric buses(to cover the $300,000/bus difference in price). I'm all for the future and improvements, but CTA has rushed into getting new, barely tested equipment before and it bit them big time(pic will be included below-there were manufacturer delays and this was one of their first undertakings for a Articulated bus for this manufacturer). TA's across America and even in Canada are still testing with small quantities of the Electric buses. Get a small amount, yes, but let's not start thinking about a large quantity of them to replace what is a central core of our 40' bus roster(1,030 buses). If I was the CTA President and had procurement power, I'd replace the New Flyers with 930 40' Clean Diesel or Hybrid buses and 100 All-Electric buses when the time is up to put out the contract for bidding. 100 should be enough.... then if they(700-701, the 27 that will be coming later on and the hypothetical 100) run well with only normal wear and tear, the 425 Novas could be replaced by All-Electric buses when they are due for retirement.... it'll be a smaller fleet and by that time, maybe All-Electric buses will be more affordable than they are right now.

http://insideevs.com/chicago-transit-authority-adding-electric-buses/

[Busjack]

6 hours ago, sw4400 said:

They requested the grant be changed for 8.1 million for 26 Hybrid Articulated buses to 27 40' All-Electric buses.

Hate to tell you, that IS NOT news. And the swap was CMAQ money was for money to convert existing 4334s to hybrid. The only issue regarding the 25 unexercised options is that the justification for the electric buses was that the electrics would eliminate pollution from year 2002 Nova buses.

Sorry you spent so much time typing misinformation.

[BusHunter]

Plus it's not set in stone that the last 25 Novas won't show up. I'd worry more about the 27 electric buses showing up and actually getting into service. They will have to build up the infrastructure test it and hopefully it will work. These things never do really happen on schedule so they might be waiting with buses already here. That seems to be what's up at Pace with the CNG's and in Indiana buses sat for 6-9 months waiting for the infrastructure to be built. Hopefully maybe they can build chargers at the garages in a timely fashion and charge them at least at the garages. At least then they could function like a #700 in tripper service if worse comes to worse. This might even be smarter to teeth in these buses.

[Busjack]

23 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Plus it's not set in stone that the last 25 Novas won't show up

The budget (page 70) said 50 electric or clean diesel buses, so that potentially is still in play,

[sw4400]

3 hours ago, Busjack said:

Hate to tell you, that IS NOT news. And the swap was CMAQ money was for money to convert existing 4334s to hybrid. The only issue regarding the 25 unexercised options is that the justification for the electric buses was that the electrics would eliminate pollution from year 2002 Nova buses.

Sorry you spent so much time typing misinformation.

So, they were going to convert in stages?

4334-4399= 66 Clean Diesel Articulateds

Grant(or CMAQ Money as you say) is 8.1 million to convert only 26 of those 66? Why not get a full CMAQ grant to do all 66 at once, rather than ask for another grant later to convert the remaining 40 others?

[sw4400]

2 hours ago, Busjack said:

The budget (page 70) said 50 electric or clean diesel buses, so that potentially is still in play,

If they have supportive funding in the budget for 50 electric. They cost $800,000/ea and Transit Funding only gives out $500,000/ea, so the CTA will need to find $300,000/bus difference from another source(like additional CMAQ grants). So a 15 million CMAQ grant to cover the difference. That was the point of taking the 8.1 million contract for 26 Hybrid Artics(or converting only 26 of the 66 Clean Diesel Hybrids as you say)and changing it to 27 electric buses. That's the difference in cost of the buses the CTA is wanting to procure @ $300,000/ea.

[Busjack]

40 minutes ago, sw4400 said:

So, they were going to convert in stages?

4334-4399= 66 Clean Diesel Articulateds

Grant(or CMAQ Money as you say) is 8.1 million to convert only 26 of those 66? Why not get a full CMAQ grant to do all 66 at once, rather than ask for another grant later to convert the remaining 40 others?

The 2015 budget (page 89) said:

"The CMAQ program funds surface transportation improvements designed to improve air quality and mitigate congestion.An $8.1 million grant will provide for the cost differential to retrofit up to 32 sixty-foot conventional diesel-powered buses to hybrid diesel electric buses."

However, that's now irrelevant and moot, as that money was reallocated to pay the differential  cost for 27 electric buses.

My other  comment was only in response to BusHunter's observation that the Nova contract has 25 unexercised options, so your comment was off the track, too. However, the assumption in the repurposing of the CMAQ grant was that CTA would have to come up with $500k per bus one way or the other, and CMAQ provides the $300K differential between a diesel and battery bus, assuming that the cost of a battery bus is $800k.