The mysterious #6400 and #6000 swap

[Busjack]

...

Anyway, I believe that the concern Jajuan raised over the concentration of soon-to-be-aging Novas at only two garages is a legitimate one, as are his comments about the 6000s at 74th. However, now that the contract for the New Flyer hybrid artics has been approved, a few posters, who seem to be in the know, have estimated the number of remaining 6000s, when all is said and done, at about 150(?) or so --- not enough to completely fill the roster of 74th or any other garage.

So, is it safe to assume that maybe 74th will finally receive some new equipment? I would hope so. One more reason, I believe, to express healthy skepticism over the series consolidation plan as several knowledgeable members (including Jajuan, Busjack, and Trainman) have also been doing.

As I previously mentioned, I don't foresee more than about 85 6000s left after July 2009, knocking out about 60 some when 3 track is done, and 40 odd supposedly because of the maintenance improvements and garage consolidation. That would tend to even further reinforce what wordguy said.

However, that's not to say that I don't foresee some other type of trick. Just that it probably will not be played out with 6000s after July 2009.

[qwantae]

This past evening, I've spotted a breakdown #6405 getting towed out of bus stop southbound on N. Western just south of North Ave., Was that bus loaned to Chicago from 77th?

[Buslover88]

This past evening, I've spotted a breakdown #6405 getting towed out of bus stop southbound on N. Western just south of North Ave., Was that bus loaned to Chicago from 77th?

It was towed to Archer since it belongs there now. And before #6405 went to Archer, it was at Chicago.

[BusHunter]

All I can say is that the trade has probably begun, saw 6514 on 62 Archer today.

Yeah, when the trade happened last week, F got A's #6731 - #6725 (could be more) for F's #6505 - #6516. #6515 was on the #62 yesterday too a couple runs behind #6514. RJL states previously that he saw #6741 in A's territory. Most likely those will come over to F this weekend. Your basic theory is still intact. #6069 - #6055 will most likely go to 74th for the spring pick changes and the rest (#6100's at F) will end up at 77th. Numerical consistancy intact as well. There are a few buses that still haven't been swapped from last week. #6194 was still on the #9 yesterday.

[sw4400]

As I previously mentioned, I don't foresee more than about 85 6000s left after July 2009

Thanks for your opinion. Now my opinion is that there'll be closer to half the 6000's left(as per Kevin's report), more likely 120-130.

However, that's not to say that I don't foresee some other type of trick. Just that it probably will not be played out with 6000s after July 2009.

This quote throws me. What are you mentioning here?

[Busjack]

This quote throws me. What are you mentioning here?

Just what I'm musing about (no proof)--all the sudden some politician in the 11th, 12th or 38th ward (or thereabouts) complains about the Novas getting old, and, in reaction, they go to 74th; F or A gets new buses.

[RJL6000]

Yeah, when the trade happened last week, F got A's #6731 - #6725 (could be more) for F's #6505 - #6516. #6515 was on the #62 yesterday too a couple runs behind #6514. RJL states previously that he saw #6741 in A's territory. Most likely those will come over to F this weekend. Your basic theory is still intact.

Even after the swaps are completed, A will still have a few of the LED-equipped 6700s. And although A is currently 100% Nova-equipped, it will receive 103's 500-series Optimas since A will take over the operations of the UofC routes.

[Busjack]

And although A is currently 100% Nova-equipped, it will receive 103's 500-series Optimas since A will take over the operations of the UofC routes.

So is A theoretically overstocked from a March 23 perspective, resulting in even more moves next week? Or does the space now exist for the approximately 30 Optimas?

[Busjack]

Yeah, when the trade happened last week, F got A's #6731 - #6725 (could be more) for F's #6505 - #6516.

If I am comprehending this properly, there must have been a recent swap from 7 to F before this one, because the buses in the 6505 - 6516 range were assigned to 7. More fodder for trainman's position?

[nflyer22]

Even after the swaps are completed, A will still have a few of the LED-equipped 6700s. And although A is currently 100% Nova-equipped, it will receive 103's 500-series Optimas since A will take over the operations of the UofC routes.

That's good. By the way, saw 6739 today on 62 Archer.

So is A theoretically overstocked from a March 23 perspective, resulting in even more moves next week? Or does the space now exist for the approximately 30 Optimas?

No, I don't think so, since Archer can hold up to 290 buses (unless that somehow changes, based on the info from here, ChicagoBus), and there are only like 240 (approximate) Novas there, so there's more than enough room for the Optimas.

[wordguy]

Yeah, when the trade happened last week, F got A's #6731 - #6725 (could be more) for F's #6505 - #6516. #6515 was on the #62 yesterday too a couple runs behind #6514. RJL states previously that he saw #6741 in A's territory. Most likely those will come over to F this weekend. Your basic theory is still intact. #6069 - #6055 will most likely go to 74th for the spring pick changes and the rest (#6100's at F) will end up at 77th. Numerical consistancy intact as well. There are a few buses that still haven't been swapped from last week. #6194 was still on the #9 yesterday.

===Re: 6000s to 77th Street. is this just speculation or has this information been officially confirmed? I'm skeptical because 77th Street's last Flxibles were either retired or reassigned well over a year ago, if my memory serves me.

[cta5658]

do u think 103 might get some buses for the spring pick

[sw4400]

do u think 103 might get some buses for the spring pick

I tried consolidating the fleets to one garage each, but it seems impossible for all garages to be one type of bus, so I'm splitting up the fleets in some garages and giving you my idea of how things will look after all New Flyers are delivered(Speculation). I'm guessing the 900-Series will be retired based on how the CTA preferred the 800-Series better.

Archer: NOVA #'s 6400-6520, Optima #'s 500-524

Chicago: New Flyer #'s 1000-1249

Forest Glen: NOVA #'s 6761-6883, Optima #'s 525-544, New Flyer #'s 1640-1779

Kedzie: New Flyer #'s 1250-1359, New Flyer Hybrid #'s 800-809

North Park: NOVA #'s 6641-6760, New Flyer #'s 1780-1829

74th: NOVA #'s 6521-6640, New Flyer #'s 1830-1969

77th: New Flyer #'s 1360-1509, 1970-2009

103rd: New Flyer #'s 1510-1639, 2010-2029

This took well over an hour to put together!!! To save time, I know I'm probably way off, Busjack. But this was put together to kinda get you guys to take this table and put what buses you think go where. I didn't include the New Flyer Articulateds, NABI Articulateds(these will always be at NP, K, and 77th) or older fleet vehicles because by 2009, most(if not all) will be gone. If there are some of the 6000-Series Flxibles around, they'll probably be spread from FG to the South Side Garages until retirement.

BTW: In this speculation, none of the current series buses are retired. I don't have no way of knowing what is still on the road with over 2,000 buses the CTA has in the fleets unless they post what is still out there.

[Busjack]

Anyone is entitled to their speculation, and I don't have any inside information, but:

• If the FTA paid for the 900s, they don't get retired until they reach 12 years (even if the 5900s were off the street early, they hung around the yard until recently).
  
• This assumes various NF swaps between C, K, and 7 that I doubt anyone could justify in CTA management.
  
• After consolidating Novas at FG, this assumes that the next NF option immediately goes there, unless you are foreseeing F, P, and 103 engaged in a big swap down the line (possible, especially given the odd/even split between 1 and P, but...)
  

Also, I don't believe that one can reach a proper conclusion without factoring in the hybrid articulateds. Again, I have noted as a belief that 77th will become primarily a garage for those buses, since that is the garage with the most routes meeting the use for them proposed by Huberman: heavy routes where you could cut the fleet by 25% without affecting seating capacity or frequency much. With regard to

===Re: 6000s to 77th Street. is this just speculation or has this information been officially confirmed? I'm skeptical because 77th Street's last Flxibles were either retired or reassigned well over a year ago, if my memory serves me.

I can't give you any official confirmation, but this would be consistent with past practice that all of the sudden there is a bus swap that puts 77th in line for a new series (i.e. the 5300s go from 1 to 7 and then 7 gets the 1200s) and the possibility that those 6000s would be retired by the hybrid articulateds. This would go full circle, as 7 originally had 110 of the 6000s, but lost about 80 when it got the 6400s, and eventually lost all. If its Novas are now going elsewhere, 7 would need some substitutes, although probably not as many, as it is losing two routes.

[sw4400]

I tried consolidating the fleets to one garage each, but it seems impossible for all garages to be one type of bus, so I'm splitting up the fleets in some garages and giving you my idea of how things will look after all New Flyers are delivered(Speculation). I'm guessing the 900-Series will be retired based on how the CTA preferred the 800-Series better.

Archer: NOVA #'s 6400-6520, Optima #'s 500-524

Chicago: New Flyer #'s 1000-1249

Forest Glen: NOVA #'s 6761-6883, Optima #'s 525-544, New Flyer #'s 1640-1779

Kedzie: New Flyer #'s 1250-1359, New Flyer Hybrid #'s 800-809

North Park: NOVA #'s 6641-6760, New Flyer #'s 1780-1829

74th: NOVA #'s 6521-6640, New Flyer #'s 1830-1969

77th: New Flyer #'s 1360-1509, 1970-2009

103rd: New Flyer #'s 1510-1639, 2010-2029

This took well over an hour to put together!!! To save time, I know I'm probably way off, Busjack. But this was put together to kinda get you guys to take this table and put what buses you think go where. I didn't include the New Flyer Articulateds, NABI Articulateds(these will always be at NP, K, and 77th) or older fleet vehicles because by 2009, most(if not all) will be gone. If there are some of the 6000-Series Flxibles around, they'll probably be spread from FG to the South Side Garages until retirement.

BTW: In this speculation, none of the current series buses are retired. I don't have no way of knowing what is still on the road with over 2,000 buses the CTA has in the fleets unless they post what is still out there.

I will add the NABI Articulateds and New Flyers, as well as what I think will still be around for the Flxible 6000-Series(if they still are). Again, I know there are numbers retired, but I'm going on the presumption here that all numbers are still active.

Archer: NOVA #'s 6400-6520, Optima #'s 500-524

Chicago: New Flyer #'s 1000-1249

Forest Glen: NOVA #'s 6761-6883, Optima #'s 525-544, New Flyer #'s 1640-1779

Kedzie: New Flyer #'s 1250-1359, New Flyer Hybrid #'s 800-809, NABI #'s 7613-7699, New Flyer Hybrid Artics # 600-619, 730-749

North Park: NOVA #'s 6641-6760, New Flyer #'s 1780-1829 NABI #'s 7500-7612, New Flyer Hybrid Artics # 620-649

74th: NOVA #'s 6521-6640, New Flyer #'s 1830-1969 Flxible #'s 6241-6329

77th: New Flyer #'s 1360-1509, 1970-2009 NABI #'s 7700-7725 New Flyer Artics # 650-729 Flxible #'s 6150-6204

103rd: New Flyer #'s 1510-1639, 2010-2029 Flxible #'s 6205-6240

[sw4400]

Anyone is entitled to their speculation, and I don't have any inside information, but:

[*]If the FTA paid for the 900s, they don't get retired until they reach 12 years (even if the 5900s were off the street early, they hung around the yard until recently).

This is true. So the 900's will be at least retired from revenue service early, based on what I speculate after hearing the CTA's preference of the 800's over them.

[Busjack]

This is true. So the 900's will be at least retired from revenue service early, based on what I speculate after hearing the CTA's preference of the 800's over them.

Even the so called preference is speculation. Purchasing the hybrid articulated buses does not confirm the matter, one way or the other, as far as I am concerned, in that the deal was to take the assignment of the Seattle option, and there was no choice of powertrain there. Each type of hybrid was supposed to get a one year test, and the GM-Allison one got barely that, and the ISE hasn't yet.

It has been proved that I am not inside CTA management's head on these matters, but it wouldn't shock me if they announced, a year from now, that all the sudden money has appeared from the sky (the capital plan passes, someone else is willing to take a flyer on a lease (pun intended) or whatever), and to take care of the remaining 14 year old buses that have to be replaced, CTA suddenly discovered that the ISEs are a good deal. Or maybe not.

In any event, CTA is still messing around with the NABIs, and nobody has established that it prefers the 900s less than that. And I really doubt that the CTA can justify throwing out the approximately $6 million spent on the 10 900s.

[jajuan]

Even the so called preference is speculation. Purchasing the hybrid articulated buses does not confirm the matter, one way or the other, as far as I am concerned, in that the deal was to take the assignment of the Seattle option, and there was no choice of powertrain there. Each type of hybrid was supposed to get a one year test, and the GM-Allison one got barely that, and the ISE hasn't yet.

It has been proved that I am not inside CTA management's head on these matters, but it wouldn't shock me if they announced, a year from now, that all the sudden money has appeared from the sky (the capital plan passes, someone else is willing to take a flyer on a lease (pun intended) or whatever), and to take care of the remaining 14 year old buses that have to be replaced, CTA suddenly discovered that the ISEs are a good deal. Or maybe not.

In any event, CTA is still messing around with the NABIs, and nobody has established that it prefers the 900s less than that. And I really doubt that the CTA can justify throwing out the approximately $6 million spent on the 10 900s.

Yes. I agree with you. And Huberman has given the impression that he is above just throwing money away frivolously. He's on this trek of financial efficiency at the CTA.

[trainman8119]

New CTA motto (and it all applies here)...

The only thing for sure is that nothing is for sure.

[Guest]

Today I spotted Flxible #6184, 6195 and #6198 out of the Glen.