Return of the 11 & 31 Bus

[Busjack]

8 hours ago, Juniorz said:

WOW! I am actually quite shocked by statistics released! I actually thought the 31 didn't stand a change at all, goes to show you, that you can gather up the support but the support doesn't help in the effort in the case of the 11 extension. I believe the extension of the 11 pilot is a sympathy extension seeing that local dignitaries are showing strong support for both routes, but one that they thought would actually become an over success is actually the struggling underdog. Tough luck Route 11.   

Which might, in retrospect, could have come down to that Claypool could have said there wasn't enough ridership to continue the route back then, instead of relying on the NU Traffic Institute to fabricate justifications, such as parallel to the L when it wasn't. I don't have the numbers then, but it seems you have the situation now. They aren't going to pull the plug in the middle of the holiday season, but if it doesn't get better, the plug will be pulled in another 180 days.

[jajuan]

8 hours ago, Busjack said:

Which might, in retrospect, could have come down to that Claypool could have said there wasn't enough ridership to continue the route back then, instead of relying on the NU Traffic Institute to fabricate justifications, such as parallel to the L when it wasn't. I don't have the numbers then, but it seems you have the situation now. They aren't going to pull the plug in the middle of the holiday season, but if it doesn't get better, the plug will be pulled in another 180 days.

Yeah they are going to get a reprieve because of the holiday, but folks on Lincoln better start using that route more if they want to keep it around after the next six months. And as already mentioned, the other surprise is the 31 reaching about two thirds of its goal these three months into its revival. Many of the members of the forum thought that that one would be the one that its riders would need to sound the alarm bells over. 

[TaylorTank1229]

On 12/10/2016 at 11:12 PM, Pace831 said:

Tribune article about the possibility of extending the pilots. Most notable is the ridership numbers: 11 is averaging about 500 rides per day, with the goal of 1500. Tammy Chase says it is "definitely underperforming". 31 is actually doing better than predicted, averaging 649 rides out of 830.

See? I had faith in the 31st bus, but were only at the halfway mark for it so we still gotta see if it keeps up. But still pretty good, as I thought the Lincoln bus would do a bit better than 31st, but I suppose some people just don't like the set up of hours of services. By the way I'm sure it's been 6 months for the #11 pilot. Is service along Lincoln between Leland and Fullerton getting discontinued in the winter pick or are they extending the pilot for a bit longer to see if anything changes?

[BusHunter]

Interesting that they are continuing the pilots. Both routes seemed to have failed, but perhaps they want to try something else like a different schedule and give both routes another chance.

[Busjack]

30 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Interesting that they are continuing the pilots. Both routes seemed to have failed, but perhaps they want to try something else like a different schedule and give both routes another chance.

You have certainly misstated the case on 31. That pilot has only been in effect a couple of the 6 month trial period, and I agree with @Juniorz's assessment that it hasn't failed, and could meet its objective in the 6 month test period.

Also, my reading of the articles is that the hours for the test are the hours for the test.

39 minutes ago, TaylorTank1229 said:

See? I had faith in the 31st bus, but were only at the halfway mark for it so we still gotta see if it keeps up.

I tend to agree with you.

39 minutes ago, TaylorTank1229 said:

By the way I'm sure it's been 6 months for the #11 pilot. Is service along Lincoln between Leland and Fullerton getting discontinued in the winter pick or are they extending the pilot for a bit longer to see if anything changes?

Basically speaking, the only way it gets terminated Dec. 19 is if the board votes for that on Dec. 14 and there is enough time to give notice and implement it, which seems very unlikely. Like many of these 180 day experiments (such as those on the North LSD restructuring around 2003), CTA will just declare another 180 day experiment and reassess it in June. In fact, the latter is on the Dec. 14 Committee on Strategic Planning Agenda:"3. Review of an ordinance authorizing a second 180-day experiment for the extension of Bus Route #11 Lincoln."

 

[Juniorz]

What's hurting the 11 extension is Route 37 and the Brown Line.

Riders have migrated to other transit options to travel along the service area. To say the pilot hours are partly to blame is not an excuse as the 31 has proven that you can gainer support if the support wants the pilot to succeed within the service hours given.

As I mentioned before, hopefully the CTA has in place an aggressive campaign for these routes to succeed outside of flashing pilot ads every couple minutes along station digital display screens.

 

[Busjack]

5 minutes ago, Juniorz said:

What's hurting the 11 extension is Route 37 and the Brown Line.

Riders have migrated to other transit options to travel along the service area.

While passengers have migrated elsewhere, the issue seemed to be that there were places (like sheltered workshops) on Lincoln where they wanted to go. I don't have the gps data, but if it turns out that people aren't getting on and off on Lincoln (note the places on the promotional map you posted 6 months ago), there is a problem.

[renardo870]

Ridership on the #11 could be better if the route ran completely from 5am to 7pm and go from Howard/McCormick and extend southward to North/Clark bus terminal and serve the Lincoln Park Zoo area. Weekend service could follow later on also as a 180 day experiment as well.

[Busjack]

17 minutes ago, renardo870 said:

Ridership on the #11 could be better if the route ran completely from 5am to 7pm and go from Howard/McCormick and extend southward to North/Clark bus terminal and serve the Lincoln Park Zoo area. Weekend service could follow later on also as a 180 day experiment as well.

But the problem with your theory is that it has to meet the normal productivity standard per service hour. You have just lifted the target from 1500 passengers to maybe 2300.

[jajuan]

22 hours ago, Busjack said:

But the problem with your theory is that it has to meet the normal productivity standard per service hour. You have just lifted the target from 1500 passengers to maybe 2300.

Not to mention that there are already enough alternatives from the north to the zoo, namely the 22, 36, and 151. So I think we need to put the 11 to the zoo idea right back to bed. I think what's really being ignored is as the reason the 11's extension is surprisingly underperforming is the same reason the 31 is doing surprisingly well already just halfway into its test. And that's that you have a higher likelihood that someone on the north side can afford a car if need be than is the case on the south side. So we got a couple of things going on that may explain the 11. Some folks bought into Claypool's bogus statement that the Brown Line is a perfect parallel to the 11 even though it's not. So they're afraid to switch back to the bus because they actually think they're saving time on the train despite that perceived saved time really getting eaten up walking to a bus route that the Brown Line doesn't meet with as perfectly as the 11 does. The rest went to their cars that they bought or already had at the time the 11 got cut. Once folks go to their cars, it's hard to get them to trust transit enough again to leave their cars. As for the 37 reference I spotted above, the 37 should have no effect on the 11 other than being the continuation of it similar to how 49B is the continuation of the 49 and X49 further north on Western or the 8A is the continuation of the 8 further south on Halsted.

[Busjack]

29 minutes ago, jajuan said:

Some folks bought into Claypool's bogus statement that the Brown Line is a perfect parallel to the 11 even though it's not. So they're afraid to switch back to the bus because they actually think they're saving time on the train despite that perceived saved time really getting eaten up walking to a bus route that the Brown Line doesn't meet with as perfectly as the 11 does. The rest went to their cars that they bought or already had at the time the 11 got cut. Once folks go to their cars, it's hard to get them to trust transit enough again to leave their cars.

I think, though, it goes back to what I said in reply to @Juniorz that the real issue is whether people have to go to places along that stretch of Lincoln, as was claimed at the hearings before Terry Peterson before the route was axed, Maybe cars have something to do with going to Jewel and Whole Foods (or Tony's north of the extension*), but not to many of the other things indicated, like seniors' centers and sheltered workshops.

Similarly, I don't think this was to serve people going downtown, as service on Lincoln would be  horribly slow, given all the 6 way intersections and the like, so I don't have a quarrel with CTA still saying that the Brown Line is for commuters.

______

*The car rationale would more definitely preclude restoring service on Elston/Clybourn, since the main business generators there are big boxes.

[Juniorz]

Supporters of Route 11 have until June 2017 to improve those ridership numbers as the pilot has been extended, giving the CTA a year worth of data to analyze instead of 180 days. An aggressive marketing campaign is planned.

The Holiday Bus recently traveled along Route 31, possibly signaling that the route has a bright future ahead.

Supporter's of both pilots continue to address the concerns of service hours, but in the case of the 31, it seems to almost meet it's targeted ridership goal.

Hopefully, both pilot's are successful and the additional marketing push will help towards seeing brighter days ahead for Route's 11 and 31.

I would caution, if one or both should fail, don't expect the the agency to be reluctant to overturn their decision to extend these pilots as they now will have data supporting their decision.

[Busjack]

3 hours ago, Juniorz said:

Supporters of Route 11 have until June 2017 to improve those ridership numbers as the pilot has been extended, giving the CTA a year worth of data to analyze instead of 180 days. An aggressive marketing campaign is planned.

....

I would caution, if one or both should fail, don't expect the the agency to be reluctant to overturn their decision to extend these pilots as they now will have data supporting their decision.

The question I raise is whether, especially in the case of 11, this is really a "get out the supporters" issue, similar to "let's all ride the Holiday Train." Not wishing to be redundant, but either there is some reason to go somewhere on Lincoln, or the passenger counts won't be sustained.

I noted at the time that the marketing materials you posted seemed targeted to yuppies. Based on those marketing materials, if people aren't using the bus to go to yoga or the spa, or Paulina Market or Trader Joe's on a statistically consistent basis, a get out the supporters drive will be statistically insignificant. The real issue is whether, after 6 months of promotion, potential riders don't know that the bus is there but can be recruited to use it regularly.

2 related points:

• While I sort of wrote off @jajuan's comment about more cars on the north side, there are other alternatives up there that Emanuel has been pushing, including Uber, ZipCar, and Divvy (was to #@^! cold for that today). Biking might be sufficient to get to yoga.
• For once, we have a real life example of the Community Guideline that anyone proposing a new route has to show what traffic generators are there. Looks like the 32nd ward failed to do this, while the 11th ward was somewhat successful, to the extent of service provided.

 

[jajuan]

4 minutes ago, Busjack said:

The question I raise is whether, especially in the case of 11, this is really a "get out the supporters" issue, similar to "let's all ride the Holiday Train." Not wishing to be redundant, but either there is some reason to go somewhere on Lincoln, or the passenger counts won't be sustained.

I noted at the time that the marketing materials you posted seemed targeted to yuppies. Based on those marketing materials, if people aren't using the bus to go to yoga or the spa, or Paulina Market or Trader Joe's on a statistically consistent basis, a get out the supporters drive will be statistically insignificant. The real issue is whether, after 6 months of promotion, potential riders don't know that the bus is there but can be recruited to use it regularly.

2 related points:

• While I sort of wrote off @jajuan's comment about more cars on the north side, there are other alternatives up there that Emanuel has been pushing, including Uber, ZipCar, and Divvy (was to #@^! cold for that today). Biking might be sufficient to get to yoga.
• For once, we have a real life example of the Community Guideline that anyone proposing a new route has to show what traffic generators are there. Looks like the 32nd ward failed to do this, while the 11th ward was somewhat successful, to the extent of service provided.

 

Well, bike lanes are quite prevalent on Lincoln as on other north side streets. Many of the destinations that the marketing materials for the 11 have been reached by primarily by car from my observations, be it that person's own car, or when not a taxi the personal car of some driver working for Uber, Lyft or other similar service. So my mention of greater access to a car can't be so easily written off. 

[Busjack]

9 minutes ago, jajuan said:

So my mention of greater access to a car can't be so easily written off. 

But, since this was marketed primarily to the 11th Ward (not the 3rd or 4th, even it goes through them), I don't think Patrick Daley Thompson's neighbors are so impoverished that they don't have cars. They also don't have the type of congestion (except perhaps in the Chinatown area) that deters automobile use, compared to on Lincoln.

 

[garmon757]

The bottom line is #11 is getting extended for another 6 months. However, as much as I disagree with the schedule they cannot schedule that route to begin earlier due to a lack of extra buses during morning rush hour. If they did then it wouldn't be a problem.

[Busjack]

8 minutes ago, garmon757 said:

If they did then it wouldn't be a problem.

As I noted earlier, if they extended the service hours, the number of passengers needed to meet the goal would increase.

[garmon757]

33 minutes ago, Busjack said:

As I noted earlier, if they extended the service hours, the number of passengers needed to meet the goal would increase.

Exactly! I'm guessing the they couldn't afford to make that happen but that's going to haunt them on the long run if this route fail. 

[Busjack]

34 minutes ago, garmon757 said:

Exactly! I'm guessing the they couldn't afford to make that happen but that's going to haunt them on the long run if this route fail. 

The converse is that they didn't propose this is a rush hour only route. The real target audience, such as seniors, supposedly needed it from 10-7.

[renardo870]

Just a question. How much would the dynamics change if instead of starting at 10am, it began  at 9am or even 8:30am?

[Busjack]

21 minutes ago, renardo870 said:

Just a question. How much would the dynamics change if instead of starting at 10am, it began  at 9am or even 8:30am?

It's short 1000 riders now. If you start at 8:30, you increase the service hours by 16%. Instead of the productivity requirement being 1500 riders, it goes up to 1750 riders, You can tell us where the passenger generators at 8:30 a.m. may be, but the above math indicates they would have to generate 1250 new riders to overcome the current deficit plus cover the productivity requirement for the additional 1.5 hours per day.

[jajuan]

On 12/15/2016 at 9:21 AM, Busjack said:

But, since this was marketed primarily to the 11th Ward (not the 3rd or 4th, even it goes through them), I don't think Patrick Daley Thompson's neighbors are so impoverished that they don't have cars. They also don't have the type of congestion (except perhaps in the Chinatown area) that deters automobile use, compared to on Lincoln.

 

 Perhaps. But route 11 is proving itself so far to be a catch-22 route. CTA would have caught flack from Pawar if they didn't agree to try the 11 extension, but instead only went with resurrecting the 31. They can't operate run the extension earlier because it ups the ridership goal per service hour, not to mention they can't afford it money-wise. But there may be some morning rush riders that might benefit from such a schedule by not having to cram in a crowded Brown Line train if they aren't driving, hopping in a taxi, or using Lyft or Uber. But the 10 AM start to the extension might be a possible cause numbers are hurting since a lot of north siders tend to already be at a major destination by then or close to it that time. Whatever it is though, it does seem the south siders benefiting from the 31 doing better than many suspected it would suggest those folks may have done their homework better than those getting the 11 partially restored in terms of knowing who would be riding their respective restored routes. But of course, the 31 has benefit of passing through the private tech university IIT. The students there aren't exactly going to notice the 30 min headway while in class. They just know it lines up in some way for whatever transit purpose they need before, in between, and after a given class. If they do notice, they still probably figure it's better than the campus shuttle which runs about an hour apart at times. 

[pudgym29]

..Or that Maria's Package Goods and Community Bar is a genuine traffic generator.

[Busjack]

12 hours ago, pudgym29 said:

..Or that Maria's Package Goods and Community Bar is a genuine traffic generator.

• The bus doesn;t run after 7 p.m., so it doesn't do the tipsy much good.
• If one wants to got down the beer wine and spirits trail, people in Bridgeport can ride the bus to Martianos and also get some food off the hot bar.
• The point is that it needs an average of 800 some riders every workday.

[jajuan]

Chicago Trib article from December 14th has comments from residents and workers that confirm part of my prior comment that for some north siders that use the 11 probably look at the route as structured as a Catch-22 situation. I appeared to be correct that the service hours of the extension, specifically the 10 AM start time and thus lack of morning rush service, are counterproductive to many of those folks needs, but hope the extension benefits from the second chance from the extended six months added to the experiment by gaining the ridership needed for the extension to stay alive. Yet CTA structured it that way because of limited available money