Return of the 11 & 31 Bus

[Busjack]

11 hours ago, jajuan said:

. But it's quite clear from how the community, especially that in Pawar's ward, have been looking at the extension that the focus has largely been on getting folks that were already riding the northernmost portion north of the Brown Line to ride further south

Again, there's no indication of that. The north boundary of the 47th ward is Lincoln and Ainsley, roughly, and it extends to Belmont (map). Now maybe he is trying to get people to restaurants in the ward, but it'll have to be for lunch or the early bird special. I don't see anything about Alds. Patrick O'Connor (40th and Emanuel's floor leader) or Deb Silverstein (50th) pushing that their constituents needed the bus extension.

11 hours ago, jajuan said:

Those businesses along the extension, which are more than just some random spa you cynically zeroed in on, are obviously drawing in customers at a decent clip from what I observed.

But are they riding the bus, Uber, or Divvy? @sw4400doesn't seem to work at that Jewel anymore, so I don't know if he has any indication whether traffic is using that bus stop.

But as I indicated to @Juniorz, the only thing it seems lacking is passengers, so I think we are in agreement that if it doesn't get some, it is bye bye.

 

[jajuan]

10 hours ago, Busjack said:

Again, there's no indication of that. The north boundary of the 47th ward is Lincoln and Ainsley, roughly, and it extends to Belmont (map). Now maybe he is trying to get people to restaurants in the ward, but it'll have to be for lunch or the early bird special. I don't see anything about Alds. Patrick O'Connor (40th and Emanuel's floor leader) or Deb Silverstein pushing that their constituents needed the bus extension.

You'd actually have to go outside the black and white of numbers on a page and Pawar's annual squawking at CTA in the years before the extension was put back in place and actually hear some of the actual people for that. The squawks were there, however about not being able to ride to a favorite restaurant or little shop at the northern end of Pawar's ward from the western part of O'Connor's through which the northern leg of the #11 runs. As for O'Connor, I've lived in the ward since about the late part of 2010 before Emanuel was even mayor, first in the western part a few blocks to the east of where he keeps his ward office, and now in the northeastern part of the ward. I can tell you from experience that despite his ward office being on Lincoln, as long as he's keeping the eastern parts of the ward happy as well as appeasing those who bought up condos in the ward sold by his real estate broker wife after a zoning change he sought, you're not going to hear him dabble in "menial complaints" like CTA cutting back a bus route. And of course you're not going to hear Pawar speak on it since its O'Connor's constituents on that stretch. Coupling those factors together you get the prevailing impression that it's only Pawar's area that wanted an extension of the #11 since he was the more vocal alderman pushing CTA about the route. Getting back on track though, that particular side of the equation in drawing folks to the bus didn't materialize.

10 hours ago, Busjack said:

But are they riding the bus, Uber, or Divvy? @sw4400doesn't seem to work at that Jewel anymore, so I don't know if he has any indication whether traffic is using that bus stop.

But as I indicated to @Juniorz, the only thing it seems lacking is passengers, so I think we are in agreement that if it doesn't get some, it is bye bye.

 

We might have disagreement of how these folks get there or who and how many among the different affected constituencies wanted the extension most, but we all were in constant agreement that the folks who pushed for the extension so hard, need to now put up or shut up. Since it was Pawar who stepped up in doing the victory dance about the extension since he was the most vocal (and the only vocal) alderman on this, and the business community in his ward along the extension have been saying how they are so supportive of the extension, he and that business community especially should be stepping up to the plate more in getting folks riding the bus more along the extension, if they want it to stay as much as they've been saying. 

[Busjack]

8 minutes ago, jajuan said:

you get the prevailing impression that it's only Pawar's area that wanted an extension of the #11 since he was the more vocal alderman pushing CTA about the route. 

Waguespack got into it a little.

[jajuan]

On 1/17/2017 at 1:14 PM, Busjack said:

Waguespack got into it a little.

Ha ha no I don't have that impression by any means. I made the point that some of those in the 40th living along Lincoln also wanted it as well in my prior post. I made the point about Pawar stepping it up a bit harder more from the standpoint that most of the extension runs through his ward and that it would be his ward that gets the brunt of the benefit of the extension being a success. 

[Juniorz]

Update! Route 31 will receive a 180 day extension trial period. #StayTuned

[TaylorTank1229]

4 hours ago, Juniorz said:

Update! Route 31 will receive a 180 day extension trial period. #StayTuned

Will they be extending its hours too?

[Juniorz]

2 hours ago, TaylorTank1229 said:

Will they be extending its hours too?

The schedule was revised in February, so that's a definite no and since this is a trial run, expect the hours of operation to remain during the duration of the extended trial period. 

[Sam92]

Just something I happened to run across this morning while messing around on maths22... The two buses used for 31 31st are interlined with late AM rush runs on #2 Hyde Park Express

[jajuan]

11 hours ago, Sam92 said:

Just something I happened to run across this morning while messing around on maths22... The two buses used for 31 31st are interlined with late AM rush runs on #2 Hyde Park Express

It would seem to make sense in that the 10 AM start time for the route is usually when operators driving rush extras tend to be pulling in and we don't usually see operators from any garage do pullouts at that time. So just like two of the buses that operate the 11 along that route's extension come from runs on the 49B that would have been pullins, it was going to be likely the buses for the 31 came from something else that was in service during AM rush. You just happened to be the lucky one who discovered for the rest of us what that something else from among 77th's AM rush runs.

[Sam92]

6 hours ago, jajuan said:

It would seem to make sense in that the 10 AM start time for the route is usually when operators driving rush extras tend to be pulling in and we don't usually see operators from any garage do pullouts at that time. So just like two of the buses that operate the 11 along that route's extension come from runs on the 49B that would have been pullins, it was going to be likely the buses for the 31 came from something else that was in service during AM rush. You just happened to be the lucky one who discovered for the rest of us what that something else from among 77th's AM rush runs.

I've found a few interesting once actually.  I learned the method used to transition #151 from 1000's to artics in the weekday,  the N4 runs start off as late day #3 King Drive runs,  spotted an interline between #21 and #60 as well

[jajuan]

16 hours ago, Sam92 said:

I've found a few interesting once actually.  I learned the method used to transition #151 from 1000's to artics in the weekday,  the N4 runs start off as late day #3 King Drive runs,  spotted an interline between #21 and #60 as well

Interesting. I didn't know about the N4/#3 or #21/#60 interlines. Speaking of night owl trips being runs on some totally different routes, I remember a point not so long ago when the Ashland buses were still mostly NFs that a few of the buses that were AM rush extras on the #9 would be buses that were doing overnight runs on the N49. 

[ajm522]

1 hour ago, jajuan said:

Interesting. I didn't know about the N4/#3 or #21/#60 interlines. Speaking of night owl trips being runs on some totally different routes, I remember a point not so long ago when the Ashland buses were still mostly NFs that a few of the buses that were AM rush extras on the #9 would be buses that were doing overnight runs on the N49. 

The 3/N4 mostly happens on Weekends. Most N4 runs pull out from the garage and pull in when done. 

[TaylorTank1229]

Anyone hear any new information on what's to become of the #11 extension by the time the summer picks go into effect? Will it be trial time be extended for another 6 months, made permanent, have its route and/or hours of service extended, or just be eliminated altogether? I got none to say yet for the #31 pilot yet, as it has about 3 months of testing.

[Busjack]

10 hours ago, TaylorTank1229 said:

Anyone hear any new information on what's to become of the #11 extension by the time the summer picks go into effect? Will it be trial time be extended for another 6 months, made permanent, have its route and/or hours of service extended, or just be eliminated altogether? I got none to say yet for the #31 pilot yet, as it has about 3 months of testing.

For official word, you'll have to wait for the Committee on Strategic Planning & Service Delivery agenda; next chance is June 12.

[sw4400]

2 hours ago, Busjack said:

For official word, you'll have to wait for the Committee on Strategic Planning & Service Delivery agenda; next chance is June 12.

From what I've seen as I saw the bus passing me on Lincoln when I've traveled up that way, it doesn't look good.... maybe 6 people on the bus, if you're lucky.

[Busjack]

34 minutes ago, sw4400 said:

From what I've seen as I saw the bus passing me on Lincoln when I've traveled up that way, it doesn't look good.... maybe 6 people on the bus, if you're lucky.

Anecdotal, but since my estimated standard is most of the seats full, not looking good.

Sonewhat interesting, the last Ridership Report is for Dec. 2016 (why that far behind is behind me), the current year average daily ridership for the combined route is 1742, which is about the average of the route north of the Brown Line before that, although that report says it is up 15% from Dec. 2015. Obviously, though, not near 3000. The north end is deteriorating worse, if the Saturday (-12.2%) and Sunday (-15%) results are indicative. Again, CTA, through the gps, knows where passengers are boarding and alighting, which doesn't show up on the Ridership Report.

Maybe more telling is that overall bus ridership was down 5.8% in 2016 (Executive Summary of the 2016 Calendar Year Ridership Report), and given reports that people are getting out of Chicago, may not be a good sign.

[BusHunter]

Yeah the higher intervals (20 minutes) just hurt the #11 up north. When you have the #49 or #49b or #x49 as an alternate why not just take that its only a block  away. Out south on lincoln its hard to pass up on the brown line which is just faster. 

Thing is I dont know how the #31 is doing so good unless it has new traffic generators since I was on it.

[Busjack]

27 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Yeah the higher intervals (20 minutes) just hurt the #11 up north. When you have the #49 or #49b or #x49 as an alternate why not just take that its only a block  away.

Only justification I could see was that there wasn't anything on N.Kedzie essentially north of Peterson or Devon (only alternate to that was 93, and it didn't get you closer to NEIU). However, since it was running 1600-1700 riders per weekday, it wasn't doing that badly.

27 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Thing is I dont know how the #31 is doing so good unless it has new traffic generators since I was on it.

Main arguments were that Chinatown was moving south, and some development in Bridgeport. Also connected with the Mariano's in Bridgeport.

Speaking of curiosities (and the 69th barn), Kroger must have merged locations on Mariano's Locations web page, as a search in that neighborhood also brings up 7030 S. Ashland Ave., which is a Food 4 Less.

[strictures]

27 minutes ago, Busjack said:

Speaking of curiosities (and the 69th barn), Kroger must have merged locations on Mariano's Locations web page, as a search in that neighborhood also brings up 7030 S. Ashland Ave., which is a Food 4 Less.

Since Mariano's gave out new loyalty cards a few weeks ago, the Mariano's site now redirects to a Kroger site. The cards will also be good at Kroger owned stores elsewhere, but no one knows if they work at Food 4 Less. The stores now have a lot of Kroger branded goods.

[Busjack]

18 minutes ago, strictures said:

Since Mariano's gave out new loyalty cards a few weeks ago, the Mariano's site now redirects to a Kroger site. The cards will also be good at Kroger owned stores elsewhere, but no one knows if they work at Food 4 Less. The stores now have a lot of Kroger branded goods.

Yes. I don't recall them saying they were good at other Krogers (if I go to Cincinnati), but I don't know if my gelato bonus carries over, nor if they have gelato at Food 4 Less (although I am not taking a trip to Evanston to find out, now that the Guaranty Bank there has closed).

Since we're off topic already, another oddity is that this week's Sunset Foods ad has "We’ve changed our primary supplier so we can bring you Wild Harvest." No, your supplier (Central Grocers) went bankrupt, so you picked up SuperValu,* and its brands were kicked out of Jewel in favor of Safeway brands of the same stuff. In this case, "Simply Roundy's" became "Simple Truth."

*But their website has a banner that they "announce a partnership with SuperValu"--"brands which are already well-known to many Chicago shoppers."

[Busjack]

14 hours ago, Busjack said:

For official word, you'll have to wait for the Committee on Strategic Planning & Service Delivery agenda; next chance is June 12.

Reinforcing this, it took an ordinance to start (016-057) to authorize the first experiment, and a second (016-144) to authorize the second, so I assume it would take some sort of report to the board or board action at the June 14, 2017 meeting (certainly no later than the July meeting) as the second ordinance says "and report its findings to the Board at the end of the project."

[jajuan]

On 6/2/2017 at 1:24 PM, BusHunter said:

Yeah the higher intervals (20 minutes) just hurt the #11 up north. When you have the #49 or #49b or #x49 as an alternate why not just take that its only a block  away. Out south on lincoln its hard to pass up on the brown line which is just faster. 

Thing is I dont know how the #31 is doing so good unless it has new traffic generators since I was on it.

Getting to @Busjack's point about weekend service dropping off, it doesn't exactly help that the Sunday/holiday interval is every 30 minutes instead of the 20 mins you cite for weekday and Saturday services.

[Busjack]

15 hours ago, jajuan said:

Getting to @Busjack's point about weekend service dropping off, it doesn't exactly help that the Sunday/holiday interval is every 30 minutes instead of the 20 mins you cite for weekday and Saturday services.

Only point was that any attempt to compare numbers based on the Ridership Report has to take into account losses on the rest of the route, and since the gps passenger boarding numbers are not published, the only assumption I can make is that the north end is generally losing passengers. Frequency may drive demand somewhat, but essentially most of the north end of 11 (especially north of Devon) is in Pace type territory, and hence the frequency is appropriate.Ask the people on Harlem between Higgins and Touhy, who once had weekend service but no longer do

[jajuan]

On 6/4/2017 at 8:53 AM, Busjack said:

Only point was that any attempt to compare numbers based on the Ridership Report has to take into account losses on the rest of the route, and since the gps passenger boarding numbers are not published, the only assumption I can make is that the north end is generally losing passengers. Frequency may drive demand somewhat, but essentially most of the north end of 11 (especially north of Devon) is in Pace type territory, and hence the frequency is appropriate.Ask the people on Harlem between Higgins and Touhy, who once had weekend service but no longer do

Valid point. But the average CTA rider doesn't look at it from the angle of whether a given route is in Pace type territory or traditional urban territory or in terms of ridership numbers on a report (outside of those who petition CTA to resurrect a given service) like we do as members of a transit enthusiasts forum. As such, they're typically looking at CTA as being the service that gives daytime rides on less than 30 minute intervals. So for them a route with a 30 minute headway in the daytime is not one they want to ride. In the news reports that delved into the declining CTA bus ridership, we already saw quotes from a number of passengers complaining about 20 minute headways being too high for those routes that had them during offpeak daytime hours and that being part of why they were shying away from CTA. So looking at things from that type of rider's point of view, again the 11 having a 30 minute Sunday/holiday headway and the fact that Sunday/holiday ridership isn't known for being all that relatively high doesn't help. Plus I was just making the point that if the 11 on the north end is generally losing passengers as you surmise on Sundays, the 30 minute headway could be part of the reason among other factors we may not have discussed.

[Busjack]

13 hours ago, jajuan said:

Valid point. But the average CTA rider doesn't look at it from the angle of whether a given route is in Pace type territory or traditional urban territory or in terms of ridership numbers on a report (outside of those who petition CTA to resurrect a given service) like we do as members of a transit enthusiasts forum.

There is a chicken and egg element to it, but essentially effective back to 1970s, the TA is not going to put service on a route if there is inadequate demand. For instance, 93 is 4 blocks away and runs every 25-30 minutes, and doesn't run Sunday, so nobody rides it Sunday. Somebody is riding 11 Sunday, but it is down.Doesn't mean CTA should increase frequency.

On the other hand, 66 and 79 run every 8 to 10 minutes on Sunday. 79 is down 8.9% Dec. to Dec. and 66 is down 15.5%. You arguing that 11 and 66 are equivalent as far as it being "too inconvenient to wait for a bus?" Average bus boardings systemwide are down 14.8% on Sunday. Something else is going on. The Executive Summary attributed it to "Ridership was lower than normal in December due to some below average temperatures and weekend snow events."