Up to 900 Articulated Hybrids

[Kevin]

CTA Solicitation #C08FR100754015

Request For Proposals (RFP) for the Manufacture and Delivery of up to nine hundred (900), 60-Foot, Low Floor Hybrid Transit Buses.

[jajuan]

CTA Solicitation #C08FR100754015

Ok. Now this is interesting. I wondering when they propose bringing in up to 900 articulated hybrids. After the first 163 are completely delivered, the next buses up for replacement are the remaining half of the 6000s, which would need it immediately, and the Novas, which still service years left up to 2012-13. Though the NABIs have had issues, they still have service years left up to 2017. So would they be saying they're replacing approximately 643 40-footers (484 Novas+159 6000s) with articulated buses when the time comes for replacement?

[MVTArider]

So is CTA planning on broadening their service area or just anticipating greater ridership numbers? BTW artics instead of 40 foot buses would make a lot of sense on some of the routes where riders are packed in like sardines.

[jajuan]

So is CTA planning on broadening their service area or just anticipating greater ridership numbers? BTW artics instead of 40 foot buses would make a lot of sense on some of the routes where riders are packed in like sardines.

Yes I do agree, but to have up to half the fleet consisting of articulated buses, the CTA would have to show that this is true for half the routes in the system, and that is just not the case.

[BusHunter]

CTA Solicitation #C08FR100754015

That same bid was also in the friday's redeye in the legal notices if your interested. I wonder if CTA might be broadening their BRT position for the future.

[Guest]

Im sure New Flyer will win the contract then we will have the more updated versions of its buses. With the reputation NABI has, I dont think they will win the bid on this contract.

[Buslover88]

I wonder why the order went up to 900 buses. Isn't that too much?

[wordguy]

If the production is planned over an eight-year period, between 2009 and 2017, in sync with the retirement schedule for the remaining Flxibles, the Novas, and NABIs, then 900 buses would probably be just about right.

I'd imagine that a growth in riders is being anticipated too. Still, I share Jajuan's skepticism regarding the need for that many artics.

There are probably ways that the specs could be tailored so that New Flyer Industries would be the sole bidder, or at least the most likely winner. I'm assuming that the ultimate goal would be a system-wide New Flyer fleet.

If so, it would make a lot more sense than immediate series consolidation as long as the buses are equitably distributed based on their age. Maybe I'm reading too much into this scenario, but I don't think it seems unusually far-fetched.

[Tcmetro]

Seems like CTA is trying to go Seattle style. More than 50% of their fleet is artics.

Anyways, it says up to 900 buses. Maybe it is 500 with an option of 400?

[MetroShadow]

It begs the question of where will half of these buses go, not really a matter of necessity.

(would this mean also, should the contract be awarded, a new garage be built to house such large buses?)

[jajuan]

In response to the previous three posts 8, 9, 10, I don't see the need for that many articulated buses whether it's 500 or the maximum 900. Even with the anticipation over BRT or a increase in ridership numbers, ridership patterns across the board don't always hold up for that many articulated buses, even on high ridership bus routes that already use articulated buses. There are days or times of day when a 40 footer on some trips are sufficient. The storage issue does come into question because 2 60 footers do take up about the same garage space of 3 40 footers. We tend to forget that detail when talking about garage storage capacity. If I'm not mistaken garage capacity numbers are given in terms of standard 40 foot buses.

[Busjack]

Ok. Now this is interesting. I wondering when they propose bringing in up to 900 articulated hybrids. After the first 163 are completely delivered, the next buses up for replacement are the remaining half of the 6000s, which would need it immediately, and the Novas, which still service years left up to 2012-13. Though the NABIs have had issues, they still have service years left up to 2017. So would they be saying they're replacing approximately 643 40-footers (484 Novas+159 6000s) with articulated buses when the time comes for replacement?

jajuan is going in the right direction.

I downloaded the bid documents, and it is

• Base order of 140
  
• Option 1, 160 to be exercised within 125 days of notice to proceed or 75 days of acceptance of pilot bus
  
• Option 2, 100 to be exercised within 400 days after notice to proceed (over a year).
  
• Option 3, 250 to be exercised within 750 days (over 2 years).
  
• Option 4, 250 to be exercised within 1100 days (about 3 years).
  

Also, interesting is that under the base order it says:

NOTE: The Authority will purchase ___ Buses under Base Order Quantity of this contract. (The Authority will fill in the total number of Buses to be purchased after submission of the RFP and prior to the 'notice of award' of Contract).

I guess we now know how the base order of Optimas was 50 and CTA received only 45.

As far as delivery, the pilot is to be delivered 150 days after Notice to Proceed, and Option 1 is to be completed within 390 days, delivery of 6 buses a week, subject to further mutual development.

Putting Option 4 through similar calculations indicates that the last delivery would be 4 years after the Notice to Proceed. Of course, this is all contingent on CTA having the money, as well as filling in the blanks, such as in the quoted portion and under the description of each option.

Given those contingencies (and hence the CTA is locking in only a price and not a quantity), it looks like 900 would be a fleet increase, given that there will be by 2009 1200 new New Flyers that can't be replaced, and depending on the notice of award, it isn't clear if the NABIs would be eligible for replacement. However, it never was clear whether the BRT project involved a fleet increase, and if that project is successful, whether the expansion from 10 to 100 miles would also require one.

BTW, I also noted that the spec paint scheme is the current one. Also, stripes and logos are decals, not paint.

Happy speculating. This, like most stuff was unexpected, especially given complaints about no capital funds. But, it clearly shows CTA's intent only to buy articulated hybrids during the next 5 years.

[Busjack]

There are probably ways that the specs could be tailored so that New Flyer Industries would be the sole bidder, or at least the most likely winner. I'm assuming that the ultimate goal would be a system-wide New Flyer fleet.

Not really. The standard bus spec is being used. It is performance based, and, for instance, doesn't specify series or parallel hybrid. The spec does ask for details on standardizing the bus with current CTA equipment, which would give NF a leg up. It also asks about prior structural issues with the offered bus, which might put NABI down.

The line drawings in it look like New Flyers. However, a sole bidder spec would give rise to complaints to the FTA. CTA already went through that with MAN in the late 80s (and TMC and Flxible were ultimately successful).

[MVTArider]

Because CTA is asking for bids on 60ft hybrid low floor articulated buses I guess for now the only manufacturers who offer those would be New Flyer and NABI (they have a hybrid 60ft BRT model so...) also NovaBus makes a hybrid 40ft LFS so I suppose they could combine that with their new articulated model. I'm assuming that these three companies would be the only possible candidates for now since even if Orion or Gillig pulled a low floor articulated bus out of their factories today they would still need to do testing on it like NovaBus has been doing with their LFS articulated.

Now with the BRT coming to Chicago is CTA planning on just using regular buses or are they going to get BRT ones? Again that would probably be NABI or New Flyer.

[Busjack]

Happy speculating.

To throw a few other things into the fire:

• The possibility that Option 4 may be to replace the NABIs. With the proposed buses costing nearly $1 million each by then (I predict), someone could figure that the payback to the feds for the last 2 or 3 years of the depreciated NABIs is worth it, with the fire reports and the like. Patch them up, but save the rehab money for something else.
  
• This could also bring someone else into the market. While New Flyer and NABI appear to be the only ones having something responsive at the moment, Nova is apparently coming back with far less assured. A similar sized order from LA brought back the Compobus. Maybe some European builder will find this worth coming back? The New Zealand hybrid (this request for proposals seems to exclude the EcoSaver in its current form)? However, any new entrant would have to ramp up production fast.
  

[jajuan]

The line drawings in it look like New Flyers. However, a sole bidder spec would give rise to complaints to the FTA. CTA already went through that with MAN in the late 80s (and TMC and Flxible were ultimately successful).

Yes. That's true. BTW: It's interesting that how it's possible that the TMCs and 5300s we're lamenting still being around could have been Americanas even if they were of the Seattle variety with the rear window. One question though, was the CTA looking for them to be accessible like Seattle's were given the wheelchair accessibility debate going on at the time for mainline buses before ADA passed and forced the issue and made the arguments null?

[MVTArider]

To throw a few other things into the fire:

• This could also bring someone else into the market. While New Flyer and NABI appear to be the only ones having something responsive at the moment, Nova is apparently coming back with far less assured. A similar sized order from LA brought back the Compobus. Maybe some European builder will find this worth coming back? The New Zealand hybrid (this request for proposals seems to exclude the EcoSaver in its current form)?
  

Possibly Van Hool since they already offer articulated buses with CNG and trolley options. I'm also guessing that sooner or later both Gillig and Orion will probably come out with articulated models if demand by transit agencies for articulated coaches keeps coming in.

For extreme speculation I suppose El Dorado could try getting in on some artic action as well, although they seem to cater more to smaller transit systems rather than the large ones. There's also the possibility MCI would consider getting back into the standard transit bus market in addition to their motorcoach production. Also with the dollar being rather weak an overseas company moving some production here to save money and make a few bucks could be a possibility as well, MAN AG perhaps?

[artthouwill]

It is possible thatother transit agencies may be piggybacking on this order to get buses at a discount if their own order was deemed too small to qualify for a substantial discount. For example, NICTD was going to piggyback on Metra's order for new Highliner trains for Metra Electric to get a discount on the cost of each car. Unfortunately, Metra didn't order new cars for lack of funding, thus NICTD had to order 14 new cars for itself with delivery expected in Spring 2009.

[Busjack]

Yes. That's true. BTW: It's interesting that how it's possible that the TMCs and 5300s we're lamenting still being around could have been Americanas even if they were of the Seattle variety with the rear window. One question though, was the CTA looking for them to be accessible like Seattle's were given the wheelchair accessibility debate going on at the time for mainline buses before ADA passed and forced the issue and made the arguments null?

The latter. The two things that held up the MAN contract were the complaints of lack of accessibility in the proposed MANs and the sole source complaints. By the time the ADA and FTA forced the issues, MAN figured it wasn't worth it to stay in this country.

[Busjack]

It is possible thatother transit agencies may be piggybacking on this order to get buses at a discount if their own order was deemed too small to qualify for a substantial discount.

Since New Flyer makes its options assignable, possible, but CTA has worked in the opposite direction (exercising Seattle's option instead of taking additional options for others). Also, given CTA's go it alone philosophy, I can't see it saying to, say Pace, we'll assume and assign to you some options.

[Busjack]

I'm also guessing that sooner or later both Gillig and Orion will probably come out with articulated models if demand by transit agencies for articulated coaches keeps coming in.

...

Also with the dollar being rather weak an overseas company moving some production here to save money and make a few bucks could be a possibility as well, MAN AG perhaps?

Orion could bring in a Mercedes-Benz shell.

[sw4400]

CTA Solicitation #C08FR100754015

Isn't the CTA moving just a tad too fast here? Here's why I think they are....

-TMC's and Flxible 5300's will be retired with the 1000's, 800's, 900's, and 600's, as well as all the 5800's and half of the 6000 Flxible Series(which still stymies me, the CTA spent millions to have this fleet overhauled by Detroit Diesel in 2004-2005).

-The NOVA's have a lot of life left in them. Their mid-life point is 2013(2001-2002 models), around then, they should be rehabbed and returned for a couple more years of service before retirement.

-The NABI's are a big candidate for early retirement, however. I believe the CTA is pondering this idea, thus the possible procurement for such a large order of Hybrids. But even if they were, the number is still kinda huge.

-Where will 900+ buses be put??? There just isn't enough room in our garages to house all of them, unless the CTA is planning to build some layover garage somewhere big enough to house like 300+ buses.

-And the biggest question mark here.... Isn't it just too early for more hybrids? The CTA is still testing the 800 and 900-Series DE40LF's with Chicago's harsh weather conditions and hasn't made their final reports on how these vehicles have done. I'd rather have a Diesel bus that I know will run during one of our freak heatwaves or snowstorms without breaking down. When you have 900 potential problems waiting to happen, that's like the winter of 1999-2000, when almost all of the 2600-Series "L" train cars broke down because snow infiltrated their electronics, forcing Blue Line and Red Line service to be suspended.

See for yourself... http://www.urbanophile.com/breakdown/archive/vol1/wb51.html

Maybe the Hybrids are good, but I'd feel unsafe ordering a entire fleet of them until the final reports are made on the 800 and 900-Series DE40LF's, IMO.

[Busjack]

Isn't the CTA moving just a tad too fast here? Here's why I think they are....

-The NOVA's have a lot of life left in them. Their mid-life point is 2013(2001-2002 models), around then, they should be rehabbed and returned for a couple more years of service before retirement.

No, as pointed out, their FTA midlife is starting about now (FTA life span 12 years; previous debate about whether they are being overhauled, and BusHunter corroborating that there was a request for proposals for 284 powertrains). There are FTA standards; what standards are you following? I think you are still confusing "life extending" for "midlife."

Maybe the Hybrids are good, but I'd feel unsafe ordering a entire fleet of them until the final reports are made on the 800 and 900-Series DE40LF's, IMO.

The base order is only 140, and as I pointed out, CTA, even if it accepts the contract, isn't even committed to taking that many. I'm still waiting for the remaining 80 Optimas.

I agree that the scope of the request does give rise to some questions. However, 2 years ago, we didn't know how Pace could use 222 midbuses. Now, we have some idea.

[jajuan]

Isn't the CTA moving just a tad too fast here? Here's why I think they are....

-TMC's and Flxible 5300's will be retired with the 1000's, 800's, 900's, and 600's, as well as all the 5800's and half of the 6000 Flxible Series(which still stymies me, the CTA spent millions to have this fleet overhauled by Detroit Diesel in 2004-2005).

-The NOVA's have a lot of life left in them. Their mid-life point is 2013(2001-2002 models), around then, they should be rehabbed and returned for a couple more years of service before retirement.

-The NABI's are a big candidate for early retirement, however. I believe the CTA is pondering this idea, thus the possible procurement for such a large order of Hybrids. But even if they were, the number is still kinda huge.

-Where will 900+ buses be put??? There just isn't enough room in our garages to house all of them, unless the CTA is planning to build some layover garage somewhere big enough to house like 300+ buses.

-And the biggest question mark here.... Isn't it just too early for more hybrids? The CTA is still testing the 800 and 900-Series DE40LF's with Chicago's harsh weather conditions and hasn't made their final reports on how these vehicles have done. I'd rather have a Diesel bus that I know will run during one of our freak heatwaves or snowstorms without breaking down. When you have 900 potential problems waiting to happen, that's like the winter of 1999-2000, when almost all of the 2600-Series "L" train cars broke down because snow infiltrated their electronics, forcing Blue Line and Red Line service to be suspended.

See for yourself... http://www.urbanophile.com/breakdown/archive/vol1/wb51.html

Maybe the Hybrids are good, but I'd feel unsafe ordering a entire fleet of them until the final reports are made on the 800 and 900-Series DE40LF's, IMO.

I'll agree with what you say about CTA moving too fast here, but I don't agree with a couple of your supporting arguments. According to the FTA the average useful service life for a transit bus is 12 years so the the 6000s have reached that last year even if rehabs were done in 2004-2005. Rehabs were not done on all of them however. The TMCs had rehabs shortly before that and are still falling apart today. Also the Novas are at their midlifes now with the earliest ones having reached that in 2006 and the last ones reaching that this year. 2013 would definitely not be their midlife point. That year would be the time CTA should be looking for their replacements. The CTA gets itself into jams with excessive breakdowns by holding on to models for 17-18 years as with the GMC New Looks, Americanas, TMCs, and 5300s.

[Busjack]

Here's a fun one from the specs:

The fire extinguisher shall be die-stamped with the words, "STOLEN FROM CTA," with letters about 1/4-inch high.

Anyone have any inside information about this assumption about behavior?