6400-series Nova LFS - Updates & Retirements

[Busjack]

3 hours ago, BusHunter said:

If they haven't  relinquished  the bloat yet maybe there isn't  any. 

With all the buses broken down on the street, you have posted, I doubt that. So you have to do the math I suggested.

[BusHunter]

What broke down buses? 90 percent of the fleet is either new or rehabbed. I haven't  even seen too many out of fg now that it's 45 percent newer buses.

 

[Busjack]

16 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

What broke down buses? 90 percent of the fleet is either new or rehabbed. I

If you are referring to 6400s, maybe 5 or 6 years ago. If there weren't  6400s with stuff not working, why do you post that there are?

Somehow, you are missing connections.

[jajuan]

16 hours ago, BusHunter said:

Probably more like 20, I doubt they are going to retire all base order buses. I get this weird feeling south shops might keep a few buses and rotate them in because you are asking alot for 15 year buses to continue making it, even if they are in rush only service. It's really weird if the electrics won't retire the last of the #6400's what will?

Well it's not like it's totally impossible to run a few of these buses a while longer. The Americanas lasted about 19 years, the 4400s about 17, the 5300s about 18, the Fishbowls close to 25, the old Flx 3700s 22, the Flyer 9800s and 1600s maybe 22 to 23, and if not for the Feb 2010 10% service reduction, the Flx 6000s might have been around a few more years. 

[Busjack]

1 hour ago, jajuan said:

Well it's not like it's totally impossible to run a few of these buses a while longer.

While, for instance, the MAN Americanas were not completely replaced by the 6400s, I'll agree with BusHunter that the electric bus materials and 5 year capital plan indicate that next project  after "the purchase of up to 50 electric or clean diesel buses" is replacing the 1000s. "Funding in FY 2019-2020 of $25.7 million will begin the replacement of New Flyer buses that entered service between FY 2004-2007." Both statements are at Page 70 of the 2016 budget:

[BusHunter]

1 hour ago, jajuan said:

Well it's not like it's totally impossible to run a few of these buses a while longer. The Americanas lasted about 19 years, the 4400s about 17, the 5300s about 18, the Fishbowls close to 25, the old Flx 3700s 22, the Flyer 9800s and 1600s maybe 22 to 23, and if not for the Feb 2010 10% service reduction, the Flx 6000s might have been around a few more years. 

Well tell that to busjack who thinks 100 buses is 142. I can't seem to get through to him. He seems to be convinced fg is going to have 200 buses. Why expand it at all?

[Busjack]

5 hours ago, BusHunter said:

Well tell that to busjack who thinks 100 buses is 142. I can't seem to get through to him. He seems to be convinced fg is going to have 200 buses. Why expand it at all?

 I already replied to jajuan (maybe while you were typing). You haven't replied to me what the actual demand was.

BTW, how about when CTA replaced about 1900 New Looks with 1360 accessible buses in the 1990s? I don't think the 340 MAN Americanas replaced the other 640, but maybe you have all the scrap lists.

[jajuan]

4 hours ago, Busjack said:

While, for instance, the MAN Americanas were not completely replaced by the 6400s, I'll agree with BusHunter that the electric bus materials and 5 year capital plan indicate that next project  after "the purchase of up to 50 electric or clean diesel buses" is replacing the 1000s. "Funding in FY 2019-2020 of $25.7 million will begin the replacement of New Flyer buses that entered service between FY 2004-2007." Both statements are at Page 70 of the 2016 budget:

I know that part of the coming bus renewal plans for the upcoming years. I was responding to the apparent amazement that CTA would be able to sustain a small number of 6400s until the arrival of the extra electrics. I quoted of those series service times to make the point that it's not unprecedented and out of the realm of possibility of CTA bus models surviving past the 15 year mark. And it would appear CTA is off by a couple of years in its quoted service starts of the NF 1000s. Even after accounting for CTA fiscal years beginning Oct 1 of the previous calendar year, the New Flyers' service starts was actually between FY 2006-2009. 

[BusOps]

18 hours ago, jajuan said:

 the New Flyers' service starts was actually between FY 2006-2009. 

This is correct cause all of the New Flyers at FG have a manufacturer date of 2006 on the rating plate.

[BusHunter]

Not too much happening at the fg 3rd yard. #6848 is there with it's bike rack removed (so long) and #6874 is there. Other than that its the same

[mel bernero]

6474 was operating on Western this afternoon.

[BusHunter]

#6400's not seen this week (7/30-8/5) include #6462, #6474, #6577, #6702, #6711, #6712, #6724, #6725, #6748, #6760, #6762, #6768, #6770, #6782, #6790, #6803, #6821, #6848, #6869, and #6874 hasn't been seen since monday.

#6462, #6702, #6712, #6725, #6760, #6762, #6768, #6782, #6790, #6821 hasn't been seen in two weeks.

[jajuan]

On 8/5/2016 at 0:14 PM, BusHunter said:

#6400's not seen this week (7/30-8/5) include #6462, #6474, #6577, #6702, #6711, #6712, #6724, #6725, #6748, #6760, #6762, #6768, #6770, #6782, #6790, #6803, #6821, #6848, #6869, and #6874 hasn't been seen since monday.

#6462, #6702, #6712, #6725, #6760, #6762, #6768, #6782, #6790, #6821 hasn't been seen in two weeks.

You haven't seen 6474 because it was being used by NP. Check out mel bernero's post immediately above yours reporting it on the 49 Wednesday which presumably was a North Park run given other 6400s loaned out were doing NP routes.

[BusHunter]

29 minutes ago, jajuan said:

You haven't seen 6474 because it was being used by NP. Check out mel bernero's post immediately above yours reporting it on the 49 Wednesday which presumably was a North Park run given other 6400s loaned out were doing NP routes.

Actually I believe that was its last appearance. 

[jajuan]

10 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Actually I believe that was its last appearance. 

It might be, but you stated it as not being seen at all during the previous week like the other buses you listed which was what I was responding to.

[BusHunter]

I forgot to mention #6733 was the lone #6400 yesterday in the 3rd yard along with #6848. Surprisingly there were about 6-8 new buses in there. Must have been maintenance  day. I didn't  see too many #6400's in the yard itself either. Maybe they are trying to eliminate a high percentage of them.

[BusHunter]

#6580 now sits in the fg 3rd yard without a bike rack. All the buses that were being harvested are gone like #6603 or #6591. What will they do for parts now?

[Busjack]

2 hours ago, BusHunter said:

#6580 now sits in the fg 3rd yard without a bike rack. All the buses that were being harvested are gone like #6603 or #6591. What will they do for parts now?

Get them from NABI parts operation (a division of New Flyer ULC).

In fact, I bet it is like when Pace auctioned off pallets of Orion I parts still in the warehouse. When there is little need to maintain a series of buses, you get rid of the excess parts.

[mikeymc77]

Is it pure coincidence that in each block of Novas the first active bus is a higher fleet number? 6461,6553 and 6668 per the hundred block.

[Busjack]

5 hours ago, mikeymc77 said:

Is it pure coincidence that in each block of Novas the first active bus is a higher fleet number? 6461,6553 and 6668 per the hundred block.

Probably, What's more likely is that once a bus is not worth fixing, it is gone (implied by my prior post that at some point, CTA doesn't need parts).

[BusHunter]

5 hours ago, mikeymc77 said:

Is it pure coincidence that in each block of Novas the first active bus is a higher fleet number? 6461,6553 and 6668 per the hundred block.

Probably shows which fleet is mostly junk but then again Fg only has 8 #6400's and I haven't done my weekend eliminations yet. Clearly the 74th and 77th buses were the most over driven so they would probably be the most junky. Fg probably brought back some of the #6570's to 90's on the brink of failure and overwork as fg is like a rest yard for a tired fleet as it has more downtime.

10 hours ago, Busjack said:

Get them from NABI parts operation (a division of New Flyer ULC).

In fact, I bet it is like when Pace auctioned off pallets of Orion I parts still in the warehouse. When there is little need to maintain a series of buses, you get rid of the excess parts.

Well they have #6848 and #6580 now. Maybe they are the new parts buses.  #6603 for a long time had one headlight harvested and i came back over there like a month ago and noticed it lost its second headlight.

[BusHunter]

On 8/5/2016 at 0:14 PM, BusHunter said:

#6400's not seen this week (7/30-8/5) include #6462, #6474, #6577, #6702, #6711, #6712, #6724, #6725, #6748, #6760, #6762, #6768, #6770, #6782, #6790, #6803, #6821, #6848, #6869, and #6874 hasn't been seen since monday.

#6462, #6702, #6712, #6725, #6760, #6762, #6768, #6782, #6790, #6821 hasn't been seen in two weeks.

This week quite a few #6400's haven't been in service

#6462, #6468, #6577, #6580 (last out tue, no bike rack now) #6669, #6677, #6684, #6702, #6711, #6712, #6725, #6748, #6752, #6760, #6762, #6768, #6783, #6790, #6803, #6818, #6821, #6848, #6860 and #6874. 

looking back on my notes these have been gone 3 weeks and i'm taking them off the roster:

#6462, #6702, #6712, #6725, #6760, #6762, #6768, #6790, #6821

these have been gone 2 weeks and are probably on the way out if not already

#6577, #6711, #6748, #6803, #6848 #6874 (last two last appearance in the 3rd yard, i can probably remove those 2.

i also need to add #6679, it was back last week and I forgot to add it in.

[andrethebusman]

As of Thursday 8/11 following 130 still in the computer:

6461,6466-6468,6470,6472-6474,6477,6482,6488

6553-6554,6558-6559,6562,6564,6572-6574,6576-6581,6585

6668-6669,6671-6672,6674-6675,6677-6679,6681-6682,6684,6686-6687,6691-6692,6694,6696-6697,6699

6700-6701,6704-6706,6710,6713-6716,6722,6724,6730,6733-6734,6736-6737,6746-6748,6751,6755,6757-6759,6761,6763-6764,6769-6772.6776,6778,6780,6784,6787,6792-6794,6798-6799

6802-6803,6805,6810,6812,6814,6818,6820,6824,6826,6834-6838,6841-6844,6846-6847,6849,6854,6856,6858-6862,6865-6871,6873,6875,6877,6881-6882

[jajuan]

39 minutes ago, andrethebusman said:

As of Thursday 8/11 following 130 still in the computer:

6461,6466-6468,6470,6472-6474,6477,6482,6488

6553-6554,6558-6559,6562,6564,6572-6574,6576-6581,6585

6668-6669,6671-6672,6674-6675,6677-6679,6681-6682,6684,6686-6687,6691-6692,6694,6696-6697,6699

6700-6701,6704-6706,6710,6713-6716,6722,6724,6730,6733-6734,6736-6737,6746-6748,6751,6755,6757-6759,6761,6763-6764,6769-6772.6776,6778,6780,6784,6787,6792-6794,6798-6799

6802-6803,6805,6810,6812,6814,6818,6820,6824,6826,6834-6838,6841-6844,6846-6847,6849,6854,6856,6858-6862,6865-6871,6873,6875,6877,6881-6882

As I thought, the total remaining older Novas has dropped by a pretty good number since FG got NFs and 7900s.

[Busjack]

Getting back to my point that 130 buses on the computer does not mean CTA has to replace 130 more buses, but the question was what is peak demand, I took a snapshot of math's tracker at 8:00 am., and copied it into a spreadsheet (see attachment) to left the number of rows in Excel tell me how many items there are.

Anyway it shows

 29 1000s
 97 6400s
 66 8200s
________
192

Ghost buses not counted, of course.

Note only 97 6400s on the street, not 130. If we now assume 40 NFs and 125 8200 after the current deliveries are completed, FG is only 27 short, and, coincidence, CTA is saying it is getting 27 electrics. If we are assuming a normal 15% spare ratio, 220 buses are needed.Exercising the option for 25 would pretty much take care of that.

FG allotment.xls

Now, if CTA has to expand the fleet, say for the south side improvements, the question basically is whether it accelerates the procurement to replace the 1000s, or (more likely) gets options assigned from somewhere else.