New Eldorados?

[andrethebusman]

16 hours ago, Busjack said:

 

Neither  comment (especially not the second) is responsive to the fact that the buses at issue were on the street in 2017. You seem to argue in circles and tell me what I already know without any support for assertion that some 17500s were not in your original lists "because they are 2018s," when by any standard, including VINs, they are not.

How Pace counts what is something only Pace knows. All I can say is how a person that deals with accounting sees it. Some things are just arbitrary. If you decide your car with a 2017 VIN bought and paid for in 2017 is a 2018 because the money to pay for it is from your 2018 budget, why not? Accounting is full of "tricks" to make the books balance regardless of "reality".

[Busjack]

22 minutes ago, andrethebusman said:

How Pace counts what is something only Pace knows. All I can say is how a person that deals with accounting sees it. .... Accounting is full of "tricks" to make the books balance regardless of "reality".

Since you are making a potentially defamatory charge, what is the source of what "accounting" did?

[artthouwill]

17 minutes ago, andrethebusman said:

How Pace counts what is something only Pace knows. All I can say is how a person that deals with accounting sees it. Some things are just arbitrary. If you decide your car with a 2017 VIN bought and paid for in 2017 is a 2018 because the money to pay for it is from your 2018 budget, why not? Accounting is full of "tricks" to make the books balance regardless of "reality".

Not necessarily true

  I can call that car a 2018 all I want.  Even if the dealer is selling 2018s in 2017,  if my VIN indicates that  it's a 2017, that is what it is.  If I literally  buy  that car in 2018, if the VIN  says 2017, it is.  We are talking new  buses.

With older buses there is  the reman issue.   Some states allow VINs to be either created or modified to reflect the  year remanufactured

 

 

[BusHunter]

4 hours ago, Busjack said:

They said April 9. Today is April 2.

Yeah but if it has the livery it should be legally able to do it.

[Busjack]

3 hours ago, BusHunter said:

Yeah but if it has the livery it should be legally able to do it.

The job is not complete yet. For instance, I saw 6716 on 620 today, but it wasn't wrapped

[andrethebusman]

7 hours ago, Busjack said:

Since you are making a potentially defamatory charge, what is the source of what "accounting" did?

All I can say is that how Pace lists their buses by year does not match what the vins have for years. I will not say for sure why, but it most likely has to do with money allocation.

[andrethebusman]

7 hours ago, artthouwill said:

Not necessarily true

  I can call that car a 2018 all I want.  Even if the dealer is selling 2018s in 2017,  if my VIN indicates that  it's a 2017, that is what it is.  If I literally  buy  that car in 2018, if the VIN  says 2017, it is.  We are talking new  buses.

With older buses there is  the reman issue.   Some states allow VINs to be either created or modified to reflect the  year remanufactured

 

 

What something is is not always that clear cut. Auto models change year soon after mid-year. Auto builders refer to model years, not vin years. A car built in say September 2016 is sold as a 2017 not a 2016. Yet the FVR will give the real build date as 9/16 even if the vin is an H. 

We are getting into two separate discussions here. One is vin years, which are an industry issue and the other is how a customer classifies their purchases. My car was built in October 2013, but is considered a 2014 and I bought it in March 2014. I consider it a 2014, and I will say I bought it in 2014 even if it existed in 2013.

In many ways pre-vin days were simpler. What the builder said it was went. If something was held at the plant for a long time, when it did get delivered was what it was considered to be. 

[Busjack]

10 hours ago, andrethebusman said:

All I can say is that how Pace lists their buses by year does not match what the vins have for years. I will not say for sure why, but it most likely has to do with money allocation.

You have not given the source for "Pace lists."

The only thing that looks official is the inventory you posted, which besides looking official, Pace confirms it is by saying on its FOIA page (for 2017)

Andre Kristopans
Requested listing of fixed route and paratransit bus numbers, VINS and assigned locations
Fulfilled 

That's a Pace list, It also corresponds to what our members have reported being in service.Ir isn't just the VINs but the quantities and assignments.

Hence, the other thing you supposedly quoted is not the Pace List, unless you provide similar documentation. Quit shirking it.

[andrethebusman]

Here is what VIN years are:

2017 (G) - 90 Axxess 6485-6512, 6514-6575. Let's assume 6485-6512,6514-6546 actually accepted last part of 2016. This leaves 6547-6575 as the 28 Axxesses for 2017. So 6700-6712,6714-6754 with H serials have to all go under 2018. Budget book says capital plan for 2018 includes 31 small buses. So these have to be holdovers from previous year budgets. We will not know for sure until 2019 budget book comes out, will we?

8642-8630, 6972-6979 are all H serials, but credited to 2017. Have to be late-year deliveries. 

17500-17512,17514-17571 - 28 are credited to 2017, so remaining 42 must be credited to 2018. 17500 was here in late 2016, but was apparently not accepted until 2017. The 42 have to have been funded at least in 2017, maybe even earlier.

 

 

[Busjack]

11 minutes ago, andrethebusman said:

Here is what VIN years are:

2017 (G) - 90 Axxess 6485-6512, 6514-6575. Let's assume 6485-6512,6514-6546 actually accepted last part of 2016. This leaves 6547-6575 as the 28 Axxesses for 2017. So 6700-6712,6714-6754 with H serials have to all go under 2018. Budget book says capital plan for 2018 includes 31 small buses. So these have to be holdovers from previous year budgets. We will not know for sure until 2019 budget book comes out, will we?

8642-8630, 6972-6979 are all H serials, but credited to 2017. Have to be late-year deliveries. 

17500-17512,17514-17571 - 28 are credited to 2017, so remaining 42 must be credited to 2018. 17500 was here in late 2016, but was apparently not accepted until 2017. The 42 have to have been funded at least in 2017, maybe even earlier.

 

 

Maybe I should repeat what I said before, since you did not comprehend it.

You have not given the source for "Pace lists."

I'm not interested in "must have," "Let's assume," "have to be."

Read my post and try again.

[Busjack]

6783 shows up at NS:

[andrethebusman]

1) inventory from Pace (see FOIA)

2) Yearly summary Pace 2017 and 2018 (and earlier) Budget Books

If you want the name of the data entry clerk, that I probably can't get.

[Busjack]

9 hours ago, andrethebusman said:

1) inventory from Pace (see FOIA)

With which I have no disagreement.. Since the inventories appear up to date when compared to what was observed in service,that should control.

9 hours ago, andrethebusman said:

 Yearly summary Pace 2017 and 2018 (and earlier) Budget Books

Which I said before are not transparent (i.e. you were the one who told me there would be board minutes on exercise of options, to which I said none exist, and you obviously have not been able to FOIA). Also, since the budget books have to be ready to bring to the Board in October, their preparation started in August. Their only value is, as I said before, in service dates, to come up with the Average Age. For instance, whatever the VINs for the 6 Orions, they went into service in 2004.

9 hours ago, andrethebusman said:

If you want the name of the data entry clerk, that I probably can't get.

That's not a source, or certainly not an official source, but since you got the official information on the FOIA, that's all that counts. That's certainly all that counts when you said roster fanatics rely on VINs. There's certainly a discrepancy that the budget books say 102 ElDorados in 2006 and the VINs say 101 in 2007 (when it was a spread). but otherwise the budget books and inventory correspond.

[Ricky Rodriguez]

On 4/2/2018 at 8:35 AM, BusHunter said:

So I guess the highway bus theory is debunked. 

It may just be temporary. Yet I may be wrong. Once the 18500 buses are operating at South and if they are highway buses, 6379-6385 & 6389 may go to NS. Since 6784 and 6785 are still not out I think they'll go to river to exchange buses with 6390 and 6391. (This is what I think)

[Busjack]

9 minutes ago, Ricky Rodriguez said:

It may just be temporary. Yet I may be wrong. Once the 18500 buses are operating at South and if they are highway buses, 6379-6385 & 6389 may go to NS. Since 6784 and 6785 are still not out I think they'll go to river to exchange buses with 6390 and 6391. (This is what I think)

As likely as anything at the moment.

[BusHunter]

#6786 is at nw???

[Busjack]

10 hours ago, BusHunter said:

#6786 is at nw???

Spoiler

That's what both a poster and the inventory said.

 

[Pace831]

2799 at Napa Auto Parts in Gary.

[Busjack]

On 3/1/2018 at 1:06 PM, Busjack said:

... the Anticipated Procurement Opportunities report says "Purchase of 30' - 40' Diesel Buses/$30M-$50M/2Q 2018."

It is now posted here. Is for a minimum of 67 and a maximum of 242 buses over 5 years.

The breakdown is 36 30 ft buses for year one and 32 each for years 2-5 and 18 40 foot buses for year one and 15 each for years 2 to 5, although, as usual "The actual quantity of buses that may be purchased in any one year may vary from the estimated quantities listed for each type."

A few notables:

• Must have a BRT type front.
• All seats must have USB ports.

Observations:

• Update: "Pace reserves the right to make more than one award. Award(s) will be made by vehicle." So, it could be two manufacturers.
• This spec is clear that Pace wants prices on the video surveillance system and rear destination signs. One unnamed manufacturer refused to bid on the trolley contract for that reason (according to the board meeting video). We know who that was (by process of elim8nation). Also, its BRT style bus is much more expensive than its standard low floor bus.
• Throw into the above that the sketch of dimensions is of a Pulse bus.
• 78 40 ft. buses would take care of the NABIs, but the questions are whether that would be strung out over 5 years and about any expansion (I suppose that receiving Dempster Pulse buses could result in sending some NW Axess buses to W.) 164 30 foot buses would take care of through the Heritage buses, but not the TIGER ones.

[RJL6000]

Busjack,

I believe that would be Gillig. It is the only current company in the US that I know of that offers trolleys and both standard and BRT-styled buses.

Also, both New Flyer and Nova Bus are out of the running for the 30-foot portion of the split contract because neither company currently offers a 30-foot bus (although one or both of them may bid on the 40-foot portion of the contract). New Flyer's offerings bottom out at 35 feet while Nova Bus only offers 40- and 60-foot buses.

That leaves ENC and the recently-formed Alexander Dennis USA for the 30-foot portion of the contract. (Perhaps smaller companies, both domestic and abroad, as well.)

[ethan2226]

Predicting that ElDorado National will win both contracts.

[Busjack]

16 hours ago, RJL6000 said:

That leaves ENC and the recently-formed Alexander Dennis USA for the 30-foot portion of the contract. (Perhaps smaller companies, both domestic and abroad, as well.)

Most of what you said is obvious, but if the recently formed Alexander Dennis USA is selling the same Midi, it doesn't meet specs for a 12 year bus ( TS1: "The structure of the bus shall be designed to withstand the transit service conditions typical of an urban duty cycle throughout its service life. The vehicle structural frame shall be designed to operate with minimal maintenance throughout the 12-year or 500,000-mile design operating profile." New Flyer advertised that it was a 10 year bus). Grande West seems to have the same problem (I specifically checked, and the bus has to have towing attachment points--TS25.)

6 hours ago, ethan2226 said:

Predicting that ElDorado National will win both contracts.

There still has to be bidding, but, on the 40' side,I don't see NF or Nova Bus (maybe Nova) bidding on only 78 buses over 5 years on pretty particular specs (such as the rear destination sign and video surveillance system), especially since one of the technical criteria is:

System Integration: Proposer shall demonstrate the ability of components utilized to be compatible with existing components within Pace’s current fleet.

Even though most buses use the same components, and those companies have bid on smaller contracts.

Having the chance for 242 buses offers a better chance to make money.

So, while it is not certain, that seems to be the odds.

BTW, for those asking if Pace uses a mechanics bus. it does not, but offers to pay for components:

[Busjack]

The other thing is that while I said I would no longer bet on fleet numbers, these quantities would still fit into existing series (6787?-6865; 2832-2997 both x13).

[RJL6000]

On 4/23/2018 at 8:49 AM, Busjack said:

Most of what you said is obvious, but if the recently formed Alexander Dennis USA is selling the same Midi, it doesn't meet specs for a 12 year bus ( TS1: "The structure of the bus shall be designed to withstand the transit service conditions typical of an urban duty cycle throughout its service life. The vehicle structural frame shall be designed to operate with minimal maintenance throughout the 12-year or 500,000-mile design operating profile." New Flyer advertised that it was a 10 year bus). Grande West seems to have the same problem (I specifically checked, and the bus has to have towing attachment points--TS25.)

There still has to be bidding, but, on the 40' side,I don't see NF or Nova Bus (maybe Nova) bidding on only 78 buses over 5 years on pretty particular specs (such as the rear destination sign and video surveillance system), especially since one of the technical criteria is:

System Integration: Proposer shall demonstrate the ability of components utilized to be compatible with existing components within Pace’s current fleet.

Even though most buses use the same components, and those companies have bid on smaller contracts.

Having the chance for 242 buses offers a better chance to make money.

So, while it is not certain, that seems to be the odds.

Fair enough. For the 30' side, this means that unless some smaller or more obscure company bids lower on the contract, ENC is the winner by default. Nobody else that I know of currently manufactures 12-year buses of such a short length. Other than ENC, the last U.S.-based bus manufacturer that did was NABI, which had been bought out by New Flyer (which last made a 30-foot 12-year bus back in the days of the CTA 1000-series D40LF buses when they were brand new, and whose 30-foot LFR never made it past the prototype stage) back in 2013.

[Busjack]

On 3/23/2018 at 10:23 PM, andrethebusman said:

Note that South still has 8 diesel 6300's. Maybe these are suburbans and will replace them?

To the extent that confirms anything, T.J. Ross said at the Feb. Board Meeting at 24:42: "I think we have 11 more buses to go  at South Garage and that will make it all CNG there."