Busjack Posted April 30, 2015 Report Share Posted April 30, 2015 But they don't and that is the point. Have you seen any #800's with updated CD's? Are you going to see #800's with updated CD's, probably not. If Rauner cuts the funding and he probably will how can they provide service? Maybe this also has an effect on whether CTA orders the option. If a miracle happens, no cuts, then the option will be ordered. But like I said before federal money for capital expenses has never been the issue, it's the operating expenses that the state provides which are key here. So i would order the buses even if I had to sideline #1000's to do it. Better to have a nice small transit agency with modern equipment, than one that has old equipment and is small. Plus you are asking for older equipment to take an even higher demand and it's more likely to fail.The only problem with your theory is that any 1000s purchased with federal money are subject to the 12 year FTA service life, which won't end until at least 2018. Assuming that federal money would be the source for funding for the option, CTA would have to refund a certain amount of that money as the undepreciated portion of the 1000s.This isn't the situation like in 2008 when there was plenty of depreciated junk around.You'll remember that Huberman's deception about why he needed to lease 150 buses was exposed when the article about taking the NABIs out of service said that Huberman had been negotiating for about 6 months about settling the federal share of the money sunk into them. There was also a stink, I think about 15 years ago, about the feds saying that CTA had too many spare rail cars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted April 30, 2015 Report Share Posted April 30, 2015 But they don't and that is the point. Have you seen any #800's with updated CD's? Are you going to see #800's with updated CD's, probably not. If Rauner cuts the funding and he probably will how can they provide service? Maybe this also has an effect on whether CTA orders the option. If a miracle happens, no cuts, then the option will be ordered. But like I said before federal money for capital expenses has never been the issue, it's the operating expenses that the state provides which are key here. So i would order the buses even if I had to sideline #1000's to do it. Better to have a nice small transit agency with modern equipment, than one that has old equipment and is small. Plus you are asking for older equipment to take an even higher demand and it's more likely to fail.Who said anything about asking older equipment take on higher demand or stay around longer than necessary? But if a good portion of these buses are going to be here into next year, which is a good deal likelier than Rauner's cuts or CTA getting more electric buses, it makes sense to have the same equipment as most of the rest of the fleet. And let's not forget CDs like fareboxes and bike racks are removable. So Rauner's cut threats have no bearing on 8200-8349 especially when he hasn't even sold the Legislature on his proposals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted May 1, 2015 Report Share Posted May 1, 2015 The only problem with your theory is that any 1000s purchased with federal money are subject to the 12 year FTA service life, which won't end until at least 2018. Assuming that federal money would be the source for funding for the option, CTA would have to refund a certain amount of that money as the undepreciated portion of the 1000s.This isn't the situation like in 2008 when there was plenty of depreciated junk around.You'll remember that Huberman's deception about why he needed to lease 150 buses was exposed when the article about taking the NABIs out of service said that Huberman had been negotiating for about 6 months about settling the federal share of the money sunk into them. There was also a stink, I think about 15 years ago, about the feds saying that CTA had too many spare rail cars.Well just because they are hypothetically sidelining buses don't mean they are retiring them. I remember the #5-50's were around for years. Technically that would work. It wouldn't be many buses and if subject to a service cut for the reason for extra buses, wouldn't that fly as not really intentional in nature. Now this application for electric buses is most likely going to legally bind CTA to keep some #6400's alive. If they don't do this, I can see that as deception and the feds may withdraw the funding or ask CTA to foot that bill. Now if the application was rejected, no harm no foul, they should be able to order the option and retire the #6400's. But these contracts usually have a time aspect on them. They can't expect to order the option 2 years from now at the same price. Prices go up. So to me it looks like the decision has already been made. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted May 1, 2015 Report Share Posted May 1, 2015 Who said anything about asking older equipment take on higher demand or stay around longer than necessary? But if a good portion of these buses are going to be here into next year, which is a good deal likelier than Rauner's cuts or CTA getting more electric buses, it makes sense to have the same equipment as most of the rest of the fleet. And let's not forget CDs like fareboxes and bike racks are removable. So Rauner's cut threats have no bearing on 8200-8349 especially when he hasn't even sold the Legislature on his proposals.Forest Glen is really starting to put alot of updated clever devices in it's Novas. I didn't see one #6700 today that didn't have one, but at least they do seem to be using their noodle. #6650, #6646 and #6492 didn't have any updated cd's on the #77. Those #6600's will be lucky to be around after the next 100 are gone. The #6500's that they do have that have the updated cd's they have had longer and had more of a chance to mechanically fix. I notice most seat inserts nowadays look good at the glen, so someone is fixing the buses over there. The #6600's most likely have alot of problems and it's probably easier to retire them. It's probably going to come down to the modern #6700's, #6800's and some Chicago #6500's that may stick around.Something that strikes me as kind of weird is that these last 140 something #1000 buses that haven't been at least mechanically rehabbed have no updated cd's. Now why not install the new devices in them, first and wait to see what drops off the #6400 active list? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted May 1, 2015 Report Share Posted May 1, 2015 Here's some of the last #8000's to see service 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted May 1, 2015 Report Share Posted May 1, 2015 Well just because they are hypothetically sidelining buses don't mean they are retiring them. I remember the #5-50's were around for years. Technically that would work. It wouldn't be many buses and if subject to a service cut for the reason for extra buses, wouldn't that fly as not really intentional in nature. Now this application for electric buses is most likely going to legally bind CTA to keep some #6400's alive. If they don't do this, I can see that as deception and the feds may withdraw the funding or ask CTA to foot that bill. Now if the application was rejected, no harm no foul, they should be able to order the option and retire the #6400's. But these contracts usually have a time aspect on them. They can't expect to order the option 2 years from now at the same price. Prices go up. So to me it looks like the decision has already been made.You sort of have it backwards. The single units (and those paired as 60-65) were kept around because they had a rehab and the rehab still had some service life. Krambles's book stated in 1992 that more cars would have to be ordered after the 3200s to serve the Skokie Swift and complete the retirement of the 2000s, but obviously more were not. chicago-l.org's single unit page has the story.On the CMAQ application, maybe CTA is engaged in some deception,* in which case the feds will discover it. I think it is more likely that since the acquisition is supposed to be in 2019, CTA probably is applying for something that will be technologically obsolete by then (as indicated, for instance, by recent BYD developments). Or maybe CTA will keep the best 25 buses, just like Pace seemed to keep a few buses around for 20 years, while getting rid of the rest in 12.___________*Technically is is not fraud if the representation is not to present fact, and the application is correct that as of when it was submitted, CTA had not exercised the option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 1, 2015 Report Share Posted May 1, 2015 Now the question is will Chicago or Forest Glen get the 8100's? Forest Glen needs them more than Chicago they haven't any new buses since the last batch of the 6400's were put in service there. If they don't get 8100's then someone's gotta send them NF's. At one time they were assigned to FG but they were hand me downs and something's gotta give. More importantly who will be a head of CTA since Claypool will be Rahm's Chief of Staff.I was just at Chicago Ave this morning picking up our Flxible As far as what they believe when I asked, they may be getting the next batch. That would mean the remaining 6400s at C will go to....Guess??? So most likely FG will be getting the short end again!. It just seems too obvious that CTA management downtown is doing everything possible to keep new equipment away from FG as well as the Blue line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted May 1, 2015 Report Share Posted May 1, 2015 I was just at Chicago Ave this morning picking up our Flxible As far as what they believe when I asked, they may be getting the next batch. That would mean the remaining 6400s at C will go to....Guess??? So most likely FG will be getting the short end again!. It just seems too obvious that CTA management downtown is doing everything possible to keep new equipment away from FG as well as the Blue line. Seems that way already, they should have had #1000's by now. Doesn't look like Fg will receive anything until everyone else has all new/rehabbed equipment. Fg is missing out on alot of the newer technology, no buses with LED lighting, no buses until 3 weeks ago that had updated CD's, no buses with any kind of protection for the drivers (sneeze guard)Same can said about the Blue line, No LED lighting, no LED destination signs, soon all other lines will be fully equipped with them. No interactive maps, no updated public address signs. (If your phone dies you will just wonder what time it is) and alot of this results in dirtier equipment from repetitive use. You can find smelly seats alot easier on the NW side.One thing you can say about the #6400's that beats the #7900's. I don't know who built the AC, but the #7900's are some hot buses. I've never really been on one yet that I truly liked the AC. In the summer, we're probably going to see more drivers prefer #1000's, but the #7900's have good suspensions, the driver over here yesterday on the #62 went full speed over a patch of rough grooved surface. You didn't even really feel the bump. Now on the NW side the #6400's come to a full stop at rough grooved intersections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garmon757 Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 #8059 is OOS. No sight of 8100s yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrethebusman Posted May 5, 2015 Report Share Posted May 5, 2015 Damn right!Sounds like they are towing buses somewhere for warranty work. Not exactly an unusual situation with any new equipment. Sometimes warranty contractors come to property, other times bus goes to their shop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trainman8119 Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 Seems that way already, they should have had #1000's by now. Doesn't look like Fg will receive anything until everyone else has all new/rehabbed equipment. Fg is missing out on alot of the newer technology, no buses with LED lighting, no buses until 3 weeks ago that had updated CD's, no buses with any kind of protection for the drivers (sneeze guard) I don't really know if this factors in or not, but are not the landing spots for these buses at garages with indoor facilities ? I am not sure just how many buses are stored indoors at 77th, but 74th and Chicago definitely are indoor garages. The Glen is all outdoor (as is NP I know). They probably should have some Flyers, but I can't help believe that somehow the garage conditions have something to do with where buses are being assigned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 NP seems to be immune to this theory. They have the newest artics and have #1000's. It just seems political to me. There is no majority to complain or affect an election in fg territory so they get the shaft. To me they also seem to have the deepest cuts. Parts of the nw side are not served by CTA anymore they are served by Pace and some not even that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw4400 Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 We know Plattsburgh has probably about 25-30% of the 8100's built. We should start to see the first few in the next few weeks at South Shops with the debut at garage TBD* in June no doubt....*Garage Possibilities(in order of likelihood):Chicago Garage103rd GarageForest Glen Garage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 I don't really know if this factors in or not, but are not the landing spots for these buses at garages with indoor facilities ? I am not sure just how many buses are stored indoors at 77th, but 74th and Chicago definitely are indoor garages. The Glen is all outdoor (as is NP I know). They probably should have some Flyers, but I can't help believe that somehow the garage conditions have something to do with where buses are being assigned.The outdoor facilities have been relevant in the past for such reasons as (1) when only some buses had preheaters; apparently not an issue once the 5300s were gone (2) capacitors to jump start buses were supposedly added to the buses at FG, and (3) the TIGGER project to add 80 electrical outlets to keep the batteries in the hybrids at NP topped off.However, I doubt that these control, in that FG had NFs at some point, and it can't help making sure that the buses start in the morning to send 6800s to 74th just to send them back to FG a few months later. It is also hard to conceive that the 7900s wouldn't have the latest technology. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 We know Plattsburgh has probably about 25-30% of the 8100's built. We should start to see the first few in the next few weeks at South Shops with the debut at garage TBD* in June no doubt....*Garage Possibilities(in order of likelihood):Chicago Garage103rd GarageForest Glen Garage When we saw #8139 at the factory they likely had up to that bus at least on the line. They probably had no intention on just delivering the next 50, so we have to wait until they are done with #8199 to proceed with delivery.As far as garages, 103rd has never had Nova's assigned, So it's most likely Chicago or FG, but they probably have enough #1000's to skip Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 When we saw #8139 at the factory they likely had up to that bus at least on the line. They probably had no intention on just delivering the next 50, so we have to wait until they are done with #8199 to proceed with delivery.....There isn't any history of that on this order, and the contract is quite clear that due to the payment milestones, they would be paid only half the value of the bus if they don't release it for delivery. I don't think Nova wants to sit on that kind of money. Look at the Payment search. There was a logjam of first installments through June, 2014, and another one about Sept. 2014, but the $146,000 and $73,000 payments seem pretty distributed other than that. March has all 3 kinds of payments, and apparently the price went up with invoice 8627. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 There isn't any history of that on this order, and the contract is quite clear that due to the payment milestones, they would be paid only half the value of the bus if they don't release it for delivery. I don't think Nova wants to sit on that kind of money.Then why is #8139 at the factory and where is #8100? You surely don't expect them to build a bus and send it to Chicago, one by one? This way they can finish up that line and if CTA doesn't exercise the option they don't have to reset up that line. But it's getting late in the game to exercise options, they would have to order the specific parts for the option and Freedman seating would have to build more seats. This would at least delay the option being executed for about 6 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 Then why is #8139 at the factory and where is #8100? You surely don't expect them to build a bus and send it to Chicago, one by one? This way they can finish up that line and if CTA doesn't exercise the option they don't have to reset up that line. But it's getting late in the game to exercise options, they would have to order the specific parts for the option and Freedman seating would have to build more seats. This would at least delay the option being executed for about 6 months.Yes, I do. Do you think the transport company has 100 drivers instantly available to make the 900 mile trip?All of your and Garmon's delivery lists indicate that they are not delivered in fleet order.I also see that you replied before I completed my post on the payment history. Go back and look at that.Also, with regard to the option, the earlier indications were that if exercised, it wouldn't be delivered until 2017. Obviously Nova somehow broke production of the CTA order to build the SEPTA one. And New Flyer learned the results of commencing production without having a notice to proceed, so, yes, Nova isn't holding the line for the option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 Yes, I do. Do you think the transport company has 100 drivers instantly available to make the 900 mile trip?All of your and Garmon's delivery lists indicate that they are not delivered in fleet order.I also see that you replied before I completed my post on the payment history. Go back and look at that.No they don't have 100 drivers available, but we are not seeing 100 Novas pull off the Ryan and go to south shops at the same time either. They are building in blocks at the factory. Your statement seems to dispute this. #8199 has the same chance arriving as #8100, although they probably wouldn't do that.So what are you saying CTA can cancel the order mid order? Wouldn't that be breach of contract? They have signed on for 300 buses and barring a failed arrival inspection, that is what they'll receive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 No they don't have 100 drivers available, but we are not seeing 100 Novas pull off the Ryan and go to south shops at the same time either. They are building in blocks at the factory. Your statement seems to dispute this. #8199 has the same chance arriving as #8100, although they probably wouldn't do that.So what are you saying CTA can cancel the order mid order? Wouldn't that be breach of contract? They have signed on for 300 buses and barring a failed arrival inspection, that is what they'll receive.No, I didn't say that, although if the contract has all the Pace contract clauses that "if we don't have the money the contract is terminated," it would not be a breach of contract. I thought you were talking about saving the line for the option, but obviously there isn't a breach if the option is not exercised.All I am saying is:Nobody has reported that, within the 7900 or 8000 groups, they have seen buses delivered in any kind of order nor at once. It seems like people have reported XX80s before XX40s, but someone would have to go to the top of this thread to document that completely.Nobody has reported that they have access to the Nova production scheduling system. I remember there was freaking out when deliveries were held up last summer (both here and for Philadelphia), but nobody posted any explanation for that hiccup.Given the payment schedule (50% or about $250,000 when operative on the factory floor, 30% or about $150,000 when released for delivery, and 15% or about $75,000 when put into revenue service) someone at Volvo would be fired if Nova kept 100 buses from getting to stage 2, and thus $22.5 million of inventory without payment. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 No, I didn't say that, although if the contract has all the Pace contract clauses that "if we don't have the money the contract is terminated," it would not be a breach of contract. I thought you were talking about saving the line for the option, but obviously there isn't a breach if the option is not exercised.All I am saying is: Given the payment schedule (50% or about $250,000 when operative on the factory floor, 30% or about $150,000 when released for delivery, and 15% or about $75,000 when put into revenue service) someone at Volvo would be fired if Nova kept 100 buses from getting to stage 2, and thus $22.5 million of inventory without payment.No I wasn't talking about saving the line, especially when I mentioned they would close it. I guess all those buses we saw in that picture at Plattsburg then was a figment of our imagination. There's no need to bring up old rehashings about the panic of last year but former panics have changed things at the CTA, so I'm not totally off base. Consider it a point of concern. (Remember the artic doors that wouldn't open and the subsequent changing of exit label positions) IIRC, you didn't disprove my theory either. I know myself the AC on those buses leaves me wondering where is the artic blast? Who is the AC manufacturer? Hopefully it's not Thermo King because that's embarrassing. Then we have CTA talking about electric buses instead of doing the obvious, like replacing 13 year old buses that are already beyond their service lives. No option executed might leave some of us wondering why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 I'll go back to two points I made before:Nobody here has demonstrated what is in the Novabus production control system.Nobody here has demonstrated that there is anything going on in the head of the CTA VP of bus operations.Other than that, I won't speculate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArcherRider Posted May 10, 2015 Report Share Posted May 10, 2015 I'll go back to two points I made before:Nobody here has demonstrated what is in the Novabus production control system.Nobody here has demonstrated that there is anything going on in the head of the CTA VP of bus operations.Other than that, I won't si support what Busjack is saying because we do not know because For one do not work at CTA i do not know but For one thing I know present CTA VP of bus operations is former 103rd General manager who been there since 2010. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrethebusman Posted May 11, 2015 Report Share Posted May 11, 2015 One has to remember Nova has other orders. For instance, NYCTA is getting a batch, and a pretty large one at that (414 to be exact). Now each and every contract has penalty clauses, so building batches of buses for different cities is frequently intermixed to speed up delivery on multiple orders. For instance, between the 7900's and 800's, Novabus finished up the SEPTA artic order, started the NYCTA 40-footer order, plus built a small CT Transit artic order. Now I would be almost certain there were NYCTA buses built between the 8000's and the 8100's, plus maybe a small order or two for elsewhere. Nova simply does not have the capacity to build hundreds of buses at the same time, so this intermixing is necessary to keep all their customers happy. If CTA takes up the option, there absolutely will be other batches built between the 8100's and 8200's, even if the option had been taken up last year. This is just how things work at bus builders these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw4400 Posted May 11, 2015 Report Share Posted May 11, 2015 One has to remember Nova has other orders. For instance, NYCTA is getting a batch, and a pretty large one at that (414 to be exact). Now each and every contract has penalty clauses, so building batches of buses for different cities is frequently intermixed to speed up delivery on multiple orders. For instance, between the 7900's and 800's, Novabus finished up the SEPTA artic order, started the NYCTA 40-footer order, plus built a small CT Transit artic order. Now I would be almost certain there were NYCTA buses built between the 8000's and the 8100's, plus maybe a small order or two for elsewhere. Nova simply does not have the capacity to build hundreds of buses at the same time, so this intermixing is necessary to keep all their customers happy. If CTA takes up the option, there absolutely will be other batches built between the 8100's and 8200's, even if the option had been taken up last year. This is just how things work at bus builders these days.Well, we know from the photos at Plattsburgh there are built 8100's up there... when they'll start to come down to Chicago is up in the air(I'm going to predict a few to come to South Shops for inspection by the end of May and entrance into service to the TBD Garage in early to mid-June). As far as 8200-8349, the option will not be built right away, but if the CTA wants to take possession of them starting in 2016, they need to exercise the option this year so Nova has time to put the order into their production schedule. I still think one big factor holding up the exercising of this option is the potential for service cuts next year. If you don't have the routes requiring the equipment, why purchase it? They have 1,000+ rebuilt buses coming back into service along with the 300 new buses(only mentioning the 40' buses here). Millions have been spent to rebuild the New Flyers, and millions to buy the 300 Novas. I would rather see all this money be put to use on the streets with whatever 40' routes are not cut to serve the public rather then mothball some of the New Flyers just to have another 150 Novas(which is more money to spend to purchase). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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