Busjack Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, BusHunter said: Seems it has slipped their minds that they still have 125 #6400's to retire though Which equals the option, unless you are convinced they are going to keep the current degree of bloat. My prediction is that they keep only 27 6400s, to justify this application. No different than them saying they want 27 buses instead of 25, because that's what they figure how far the $8.1 million will go with regard to the projected difference in cost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, Busjack said: Which equals the option, unless you are convinced they are going to keep the current degree of bloat. My prediction is that they keep only 27 6400s, to justify this application. No different than them saying they want 27 buses instead of 25, because that's what they figure how far the $8.1 million will go with regard to the projected difference in cost. No I take it to mean they will have 125 buses after the last #8324 bus shows up. Anyway it makes sense Fg has 257 buses needed for service in it's fleet. 125 show up by way of #8200's leaving 125 more buses that are left. The 7 buses will probably just retire and any extra bloat that gets to 264 will disappear. I think though a few more will retire due to the new equipment, so maybe a more approximate figure would be 90-100 buses going into 2020. If they exercise the 25 #8325 bus option they didn't exercise that would take them to 65 buses again. Probably Fg will just run the old buses in the rush, but they'll be a few in regular service because they would need 150 buses to make all service except the rush. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 35 minutes ago, BusHunter said: No I take it to mean they will have 125 buses after the last #8324 bus shows up. Anyway it makes sense Fg has 257 buses needed for service in it's fleet. 125 show up by way of #8200's leaving 125 more buses that are left. T No, I don't think so. I don't think anyone at CTA has stated a justification for a fleet of 1900 buses, unless Carter is going to undo the 2010 cuts completely. As was previously noted, X9 and X49 didn't require the fleet increase you thought. Remember, the original announcement of the 7900s procurement was that 450 procured buses plus the 100 then received artics would replace the Novas and Optimas. Justifications since then haven't changed. Some other garages will have to move their bloat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, Busjack said: No, I don't think so. I don't think anyone at CTA has stated a justification for a fleet of 1900 buses, unless Carter is going to undo the 2010 cuts completely. As was previously noted, X9 and X49 didn't require the fleet increase you thought. Remember, the original announcement of the 7900s procurement was that 450 procured buses plus the 100 then received artics would replace the Novas and Optimas. Justifications since then haven't changed. Some other garages will have to move their bloat. Yeah i don't understand the bloat either. Look at this if the remaining Chicago 23 #8100's that have yet to be delivered go to fg plus the 125 plus the 25 bus option that would take them down to 30 buses. That's nothing to worry about. Buy a few Midi's for an experiment and your done. Getting back to the "your wrong on 74th topic" they did receive 15-20 buses, so what are they doing with them then at 74th? They have a daycare or something I don't know about. They are playing pin the tail on the #1000 bus?? This is just contributing to the bloat. Now 74th is more bloated than ever, but I do believe they needed a few buses for X service, just maybe not 20. Really if they went with #8178's at Chicago, then they need to bring back X service to that garage, because they are not short and don't need buses otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Hence the conclusion that 125 NFs will move from about 4 other garages to FG. Why not 6 months ago is beyond me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Posted January 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Putting this with the application to which Tcmetro linked, the following statement in the 2016 budget now makes some sense: "In addition, FY 2016-2020 funding of $22 million will support the purchase of up to 50 electric or clean diesel buses." I noted before that the budget wouldn't cover electric buses at $1.1 million, but maybe the bean counters figured $22 million of CTA money, and then if CMAQ is diverted per the application, another $300K/bus as the incremental cost for an electric bus. IMO, a bit tight, but maybe CTA figures the cost will go down in a couple of years. There should also be more competition (Proterra, BYD, and NovaBus). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrethebusman Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 Proterra seems to have been guilty of at least 38 by now as RTC-Reno 312 is serial 1M9TG16J8DS816038 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 6 hours ago, andrethebusman said: guilty Guilty? Were they convicted in Nye County Court? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 23 hours ago, Busjack said: Putting this with the application to which Tcmetro linked, the following statement in the 2016 budget now makes some sense: "In addition, FY 2016-2020 funding of $22 million will support the purchase of up to 50 electric or clean diesel buses." I noted before that the budget wouldn't cover electric buses at $1.1 million, but maybe the bean counters figured $22 million of CTA money, and then if CMAQ is diverted per the application, another $300K/bus as the incremental cost for an electric bus. IMO, a bit tight, but maybe CTA figures the cost will go down in a couple of years. There should also be more competition (Proterra, BYD, and NovaBus). One would wonder if the next purchase is still part of the test if that means these will be strictly NF's. How could they test something from another manufacturer? Would that negate the test so far? They are so enraptured though with electric buses, they are completely forgetting FG. They will get the #8200's fortunately, but I doubt anything else. 125 new buses at least is something. I remember when they had 128 new #6400's, they would have enough that they could run them exclusively on the weekend and off peak times, so that will probably be the future of FG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 2 hours ago, BusHunter said: One would wonder if the next purchase is still part of the test if that means these will be strictly NF's. How could they test something from another manufacturer? Would that negate the test so far? Similar to the question about what happened to Pace (with regard to the hybrids) when Orion went out of business. The answer in each case is that the existing contract for two buses has been completed. Any new contract has to be bid. In fact, if it is a test, the solicitation should be structured so that several manufacturers get a shot at part of the order. In any event, there is no point to locking in 2 year old technology for delivery 2 years from now, in a rapidly developing field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrethebusman Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Busjack said: Guilty? Were they convicted in Nye County Court? Washoe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 10 minutes ago, andrethebusman said: Washoe Prostitution isn't legal there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 3 hours ago, Busjack said: Similar to the question about what happened to Pace (with regard to the hybrids) when Orion went out of business. The answer in each case is that the existing contract for two buses has been completed. Any new contract has to be bid. In fact, if it is a test, the solicitation should be structured so that several manufacturers get a shot at part of the order. In any event, there is no point to locking in 2 year old technology for delivery 2 years from now, in a rapidly developing field. Probably they will retrofit #700 and #701 to accept terminal charges as they should have the infrastructure on the bus to do that with little modification. This way they can double their pleasure and double their fun. If they plan to have these 29 or soon to be 50 ran hard on the streets out of a possible 1000 or so buses, then basically that's what 5-7 per garage, not that I'm holding my breath Fg is getting any. If not someone may end up with 10-15 if they do get 50. I wonder also if the plan is to slowly make certain streets like the #29 exclusively electric or almost so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 39 minutes ago, BusHunter said: Probably they will retrofit #700 and #701 to accept terminal charges as they should have the infrastructure on the bus to do that with little modification. This way they can double their pleasure and double their fun. The rest of the NF ones (in their literature) are (video). 39 minutes ago, BusHunter said: I wonder also if the plan is to slowly make certain streets like the #29 exclusively electric or almost so. Having chargers in the field would certainly affect that, as it would be more economical to have chargers in specific turnarounds. I don't know if the list of routes in the original grant application still holds, but one near Navy Pier could serve both 29 and 124. It still seems like the emphasis in that application was routes that go downtown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mel bernero Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 I saw 701 operating on Kedzie-California today. It was not showing on Bustracker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juniorz Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 700-series expansion! cta officially moves forward with the electric bus expansion! http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-cta-electric-buses-met-20160122-story.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw4400 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 It's still too much of a cost to have a full order of electric buses as they are more than twice the cost of a clean diesel or hybrid diesel bus. Average price of a diesel bus is $500,000, a 40' electric bus is $800,000 on average(though 700 and 701 cost $1.1 million each). They may be the wave of the future, but the cost to procure a fleet of minimum 100, would be astronomical right now, let alone replace 1,030 buses with them around 2021-2022(unless the market price drops closer to maybe $600,000-$650,000/bus). But that's only for a 40' bus. A 60' model would probably be $200,000-$300,000 more that a 40' bus cost, so about $1,000,000/bus(a 60' diesel bus is probably about $750,000/bus, roughly). And with the state still in Rauner-turmoil with no budget, getting some of the costs funded by the state might be hard to come by(Illinois is even talking about delaying paying people income tax checks right now). There's also talk about Chicago possibly filing for bankruptcy..... what might that do with a city-run transit agency like CTA? Would it be privatized or ran by the state like Rauner is talking about with CPS? Could it be ripped up and rebuilt from the bottom up, or maybe even folded up with nothing to replace it? Just thoughts about "What if's???" in this scenario(I'm sure there have been transit agencies that have disappeared after bankruptcy was filed by their city/county or if they themselves filed for bankruptcy)... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 7 hours ago, sw4400 said: ... There's also talk about Chicago possibly filing for bankruptcy..... what might that do with a city-run transit agency like CTA?,,,, Despite what Emperor Rahm Emanuel tells you, CTA IS NOT a city run agency. It is "a political subdivision, body politic and municipal corporation under the name of Chicago Transit Authority. (70 ILCS 3605/3)" So, even if the city went into bankruptcy reorganization, that would not involve the CTA. Detroit was a different situation, as DDOT owned the transit system, but somehow it survived. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 So is CTA going to have the biggest 40 foot US electric bus transit fleet? I don't know about going for these buses. They seem to be forgetting about FG and the novas that need replacing. Someone needs to show them the big picture here. These buses are pricey and if gas prices fall, they could end up with egg on their faces. All they would be saving on is the maintenance and maintenance costs are low anyway for the first few years while any bus is pretty new. If they could get the full 12 years on these though they might end up Ok, but any time less and these are not worth it. I'd go for something small 30 foot and maybe they could pay a 40 foot price, but they'd probably still pay 25 percent more than a 40 foot bus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 9 hours ago, BusHunter said: So is CTA going to have the biggest 40 foot US electric bus transit fleet? LA as big with BYD. 9 hours ago, BusHunter said: All they would be saving on is the maintenance... The point (besides not blowing $8.1 on the more dubious proposition of converting 33 now older buses to hybrid) is that the feds have already given CTA the money under the AQ part of CMAQ---AIR QUALITY. The twist here is that CTA is putting up its own money for the equivalent of a diesel bus and is getting an electric. CMAQ was not going to pay for $8 million in diesel fuel, even if it is now $1.75/gallon. I give CTA some credit for repurposing the grant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 3 hours ago, Busjack said: LA as big with BYD. The point (besides not blowing $8.1 on the more dubious proposition of converting 33 now older buses to hybrid) is that the feds have already given CTA the money under the AQ part of CMAQ---AIR QUALITY. The twist here is that CTA is putting up its own money for the equivalent of a diesel bus and is getting an electric. CMAQ was not going to pay for $8 million in diesel fuel, even if it is now $1.75/gallon. I give CTA some credit for repurposing the grant. Well if you put it that way maybe on the bus purchase, it's alright, but to me then it's a matter of how much does it cost to set up the infrastructure? They are going to have to set up 8 charging stations at least. Then they are going to have to maintain that, so they may not have buses to maintain but they have this to pay for as well as the electricity which may be more expensive than the gas prices soon. So there may be an even trade off. And then they never addressed FG's old bus problems. Maybe if they rub a lamp a magic genie will come out and give then some more buses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Just now, BusHunter said: And then they never addressed FG old bus problems. Maybe if they rub a lamp a magic genie will come out and give then some more buses. As I mentioned before, if 103 gets 4 electric buses, that's 4 1000s that can go to FG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Just now, Busjack said: As I mentioned before, if 103 gets 4 electric buses, that's 4 1000s that can go to FG. Just like the 22 #1000 buses that are going there from Chicago, for the #8178's or the buses they should have already had. I just don't see it happening. I guess I've lost my faith in them. Even with the electric buses, if CTA maintains it's current bloat, they won't be able to retire these last few #6400's. There's just too many left to replace. Maybe they need a few manager recruits from Pace because right now they don't seem to be managing all that well. Someone please inform CTA HQ, they have a 7th garage because they seem to think they only have 6 garages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted January 30, 2016 Report Share Posted January 30, 2016 The Sun Times is really drinking the Kool Aid on the electric buses. Not only do they state CTA is getting the 30 or so electric buses, they state when CTA buys it's #1000 bus replacement fleet they are going to buy possibly hundreds of electric buses. The CTA better start playing Powerball!! http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/7/71/1247358/cta-electric-bus-fleet Interesting, the CTA claims it's only saving 25K running the #700's per year/per bus. That seems kind of low to me. Why are places like UPS saving 80K, that's like 3 times that. It must be because the buses only run roughly 4-6 hours a day. If they ran 24/7, they could have a savings 4 times that, if the buses would hold up, but they should initially. As they get older they might need some rest.though. I don't know if the fuel budget now is a third less than it was overall cause gas was a dollar more last year, the real savings for this year might be 17K, but still they max profits running them hard. So while they may be 800K a piece, if the savings is 800K/lifetime then that's a free bus or 800K off the budget if you figure this is coming out of your pocket (operating budget) and not the feds. The trouble is the upfront costs. If they could figure out a way to lease buses, it might be cheaper. Thinking of all the garages I was thinking, you know only FG has yet to not run an alternative fuels/hybrid bus. But then there were these long ago. https://chicagohistorytoday.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/ctas-original-green-buses/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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