6000-series Flxible - Retirements

[busfan2847]

It does, so the search for the other one continues.

There was, of course, the previous quibble (this post and following) whether the prior list was 299 or 300. BusHunter was consistent that 299-7=292.

No it doesn't!

"Here's my updated retired list for 6/09. #6003, #6016, #6027, #6071, #6078, #6088, #6089, #6098, #6110, #6111, #6115, #6116, #6143, #6146, #6185, #6198, #6203, #6210, #6226, #6235, #6276, #6295, #6301, #6305, #6306, #6307, #6310, #6311, #6312, #6313, #6314, #6315, #6317, #6318, #6319, #6320 and #6325. That would leave us at 293 left."

Is a list of only 37 buses that does not include 6274 (yes it was mentioned earlier in the post but unlike the other 6 was not included in the list). The other one is 6274 (38 withdrawn 292 left).

[jajuan]

The question is what they are supposed to replace. If NABIs, that will barely be enough to do the job (in that you said that there were about 200 NABIs left between when you reported those off the active roster until all were pulled). Of course, there could also be the argument that we have as many as 292 or 293 Flxs (non curat de minimis) because a bigger fleet is necessary to cover for the missing NABIs on routes such as some 140s. That might explain why K has a bigger allotment of Flxs now than the about 40 it got with the 1122-1161 swap (the additional ones being those 6081 and over).

My guess is that we'll have to get into the mini-capital bill allotment (175-200?) to really put a dent into the number of 6000s.

As usual, we will just have to wait and see.

That's a valid point, but K is also up in 1000s, moreso than it's up in 6000s, and it's 6000s number has come down with its most recent 1000s acquisitions. So like you say it's a matter of wait and see.

[jajuan]

No it doesn't!

"Here's my updated retired list for 6/09. #6003, #6016, #6027, #6071, #6078, #6088, #6089, #6098, #6110, #6111, #6115, #6116, #6143, #6146, #6185, #6198, #6203, #6210, #6226, #6235, #6276, #6295, #6301, #6305, #6306, #6307, #6310, #6311, #6312, #6313, #6314, #6315, #6317, #6318, #6319, #6320 and #6325. That would leave us at 293 left."

Is a list of only 37 buses that does not include 6274 (yes it was mentioned earlier in the post but unlike the other 6 was not included in the list). The other one is 6274 (38 withdrawn 292 left).

But as you acknowledged it's mentioned in the post, so he does include 6274. He may have misspoken about 293 left instead of 292 (and as acknowledged by Busjack there was still the debate of whether there were previously 299 or 300 left), but the bus is mentioned so I'm not seeing the issue.

[qwantae]

No it doesn't!

"Here's my updated retired list for 6/09. #6003, #6016, #6027, #6071, #6078, #6088, #6089, #6098, #6110, #6111, #6115, #6116, #6143, #6146, #6185, #6198, #6203, #6210, #6226, #6235, #6276, #6295, #6301, #6305, #6306, #6307, #6310, #6311, #6312, #6313, #6314, #6315, #6317, #6318, #6319, #6320 and #6325. That would leave us at 293 left."

Is a list of only 37 buses that does not include 6274 (yes it was mentioned earlier in the post but unlike the other 6 was not included in the list). The other one is 6274 (38 withdrawn 292 left).

They just retired #6305 which they just repainted that first "Cumming" Flx a year or two ago? What a waste!!!

[BusHunter]

The question is what they are supposed to replace. If NABIs, that will barely be enough to do the job (in that you said that there were about 200 NABIs left between when you reported those off the active roster until all were pulled). Of course, there could also be the argument that we have as many as 292 or 293 Flxs (non curat de minimis) because a bigger fleet is necessary to cover for the missing NABIs on routes such as some 140s. That might explain why K has a bigger allotment of Flxs now than the about 40 it got with the 1122-1161 swap (the additional ones being those 6081 and over).

My guess is that we'll have to get into the mini-capital bill allotment (175-200?) to really put a dent into the number of 6000s.

As usual, we will just have to wait and see.

When you look at the NABi's right before they were gone (Jan 2009) when they were at about 200 left. Of those 200 there may have been 20 - 30 that were not running in service. I remember not seeing them that whole month. So back then even though they may have had 200 NABI's, how many were in service and not stuck at the garage needing repair. With these NF's alot of the fleet is out there on a given day, which affects your fleet total. You seem to suggest in your post that there may be still a shortage present. If so, why would 7 #6000's hit the scrap heap if they were needed? I don't really think there's a bus shortage, but maybe now more of a capacity shortage, which basically means they have the right amount of buses, but not the capacity or length that's for the job at hand. When those 58 artics hit the garage they will most likely displace 40 footers that will end up replacing #6000's through most likely a multi garage shuffle, to give more #1000's to places like 74th and 77th and Novas to Fg. That's what I see happening whether I'm wrong or not we'll just have to see.

[Busjack]

When those 58 artics hit the garage they will most likely displace 40 footers that will end up replacing #6000's through most likely a multi garage shuffle, to give more #1000's to places like 74th and 77th and Novas to Fg. That's what I see happening whether I'm wrong or not we'll just have to see.

That's probably the case. For instance, Route 26 (the last I looked actually being in South Chicago) was running 40 foot New Flyers. If, after the 58 DE60LFs show up, that route goes back to artics, and those New Flyers are freed up, then I guess a certain number of 6000s won't be needed any more. Probably the same for 144, 145, and 148.

It is hard to distinguish between a bus and capacity shortage, in that both would exist if the route is running at the same frequency with smaller equipment. If, in fact there are more runs on the types of routes I mentioned, there would be even capacity and a fleet increase, meaning a bigger fleet reduction when the artics kick in and the frequency is brought back to the prior. I take it that you say the first scenario is the one currently in effect.

With regard to the 7 that are retired, I have a feeling that the case is like 6274--not worth fixing. Then the question would be the spare ratio.

[BusHunter]

That's probably the case. For instance, Route 26 (the last I looked actually being in South Chicago) was running 40 foot New Flyers. If, after the 58 DE60LFs show up, that route goes back to artics, and those New Flyers are freed up, then I guess a certain number of 6000s won't be needed any more. Probably the same for 144, 145, and 148.

It is hard to distinguish between a bus and capacity shortage, in that both would exist if the route is running at the same frequency with smaller equipment. If, in fact there are more runs on the types of routes I mentioned, there would be even capacity and a fleet increase, meaning a bigger fleet reduction when the artics kick in and the frequency is brought back to the prior. I take it that you say the first scenario is the one currently in effect.

With regard to the 7 that are retired, I have a feeling that the case is like 6274--not worth fixing. Then the question would be the spare ratio.

Yeah I see the garage totals shrinking at Kedzie and other artic garages. They simply need a few longer buses for those #14's and #6's and various #140's. One more bus order for about 200 buses, maybe shortly after or during this order and you can write off the #6000's.

[jajuan]

That's probably the case. For instance, Route 26 (the last I looked actually being in South Chicago) was running 40 foot New Flyers. If, after the 58 DE60LFs show up, that route goes back to artics, and those New Flyers are freed up, then I guess a certain number of 6000s won't be needed any more. Probably the same for 144, 145, and 148.

It is hard to distinguish between a bus and capacity shortage, in that both would exist if the route is running at the same frequency with smaller equipment. If, in fact there are more runs on the types of routes I mentioned, there would be even capacity and a fleet increase, meaning a bigger fleet reduction when the artics kick in and the frequency is brought back to the prior. I take it that you say the first scenario is the one currently in effect.

With regard to the 7 that are retired, I have a feeling that the case is like 6274--not worth fixing. Then the question would be the spare ratio.

Yes I can see that as well though I don't recall 144 being as arctic heavy even before the NABIs were pulled. In either case the stimulus 58 should free up room to retire more 6000s.

[Amtrak41]

Say hypothetically the NABI bus fiasco never happened and they were fine buses, would all the 6000's have been gone by last winter ?

[Busjack]

Say hypothetically the NABI bus fiasco never happened and they were fine buses, would all the 6000's have been gone by last winter ?

Not last winter, but assuming 149 hybrids received by now would have replaced 6000s on a 3 for 4 basis (as Huberman said in his PowerPoints), that would have been 198 out of 290 some 6000s.

BusHunter can add his speculation on how many D40LFs would have replaced 6000s if the D40LFs weren't needed to fill in on formerly articulated routes. That might have gotten rid of the remaining 100 6000s, but I am not sure.

My calculation of the number of buses of 1991-1995 vintage on the street after the NABIs arrived is about 1270, considering that some 5300s were replaced by the last NABIs. Considering that CTA has received 1050 D/DE40LFs and 149 DE60LFs, that would have replaced about 1248 of the maybe 1270. So, if any 6000s would have been left, it would have been darn few.

Would have, could have, should have...

[BusHunter]

Not last winter, but assuming 149 hybrids received by now would have replaced 6000s on a 3 for 4 basis (as Huberman said in his PowerPoints), that would have been 198 out of 290 some 6000s.

BusHunter can add his speculation on how many D40LFs would have replaced 6000s if the D40LFs weren't needed to fill in on formerly articulated routes. That might have gotten rid of the remaining 100 6000s, but I am not sure.

My calculation of the number of buses of 1991-1995 vintage on the street after the NABIs arrived is about 1270, considering that some 5300s were replaced by the last NABIs. Considering that CTA has received 1050 D/DE40LFs and 149 DE60LFs, that would have replaced about 1248 of the maybe 1270. So, if any 6000s would have been left, it would have been darn few.

Would have, could have, should have...

If we still had the NABI's, there would hardly be any #6000's left. 200 NABI buses or 220 if there would've been no early retirements according to the Huberman ratio, would've replaced between 260 and 280 40 foot buses. With 292 #6000's left that would leave between 15 and 30 #6000's left. Thanks to the NABi crisis, these 292 still remain past their 12 year service life. When was the last time CTA had a complete bus fleet that was no older than 12 years old? I don't think they ever have, but they are the closest they've ever been now. BTW, if you want an official source on what buses will be replaced by the 58 stimulus buses, you need to look no further than the May episode of Connections. They go on record there, stating they will be replacing #6000's with that order.

[Busjack]

200 NABI buses or 220 if there would've been no early retirements according to the Huberman ratio, would've replaced between 260 and 280 40 foot buses. With 292 #6000's left that would leave between 15 and 30 #6000's left.

After I posted, I thought that this could be computed along similar lines, except that 225 (taking the wild assumption that 225 of the 226 were viable) would eliminate 300.

In any event, when you get to that few, the few stragglers usually get crushed (sort of like the last New Look except 9799 in 1995).

When was the last time CTA had a complete bus fleet that was no older than 12 years old? I don't think they ever have, but they are the closest they've ever been now.

Depending on the age of the Novas when the 6000s are gone, probably never. However, there were several times when 12 year old buses were retired, despite the usual CTA trend of 20 years, in the early and mid-70s (we may have been in the situation when 9799 was received). Also, we were close to that situation in 1995, although the 7000s would have prevented that from completely happening.

BTW, if you want an official source on what buses will be replaced by the 58 stimulus buses, you need to look no further than the May episode of Connections. They go on record there, stating they will be replacing #6000's with that order.

Considering what I think about CTA PR...

Of course, there isn't anything else to replace.

[Amtrak41]

Given RTS's and Flxibles of the same age, would any preferential treatment be given to one type of bus over another, IOW, which would they choose to scrap first ?

Did any RTS's (not including the Lake Street fleet) get saved from scrap ?

[Busjack]

Given RTS's and Flxibles of the same age, would any preferential treatment be given to one type of bus over another, IOW, which would they choose to scrap first ?

The deal was that the TMCs got a life extending overhaul and air conditioners about 2001. The life extending overhaul supposedly had a service life of maybe 6 years. So, theoretically, the FTA 12 year service life of the 5300s (which did not get the overhaul) ended in 2003, while the TMCs had a theoretical FTA service life until say 2007-2008.

Also, when the Clever Devices ADA equipment was installed, CTA said in about 2004 that it wasn't going into the remaining 5300s, because they were soon to be scrapped. That decision was reversed about a month later, when it was said that the replacements were not coming soon.

While some 5300s bit the dust first, by the time the receipt of 1000s and scrappings really got going, the decision was that the worst bus goes next. In fact, the last 4400 went about a month before the last 5300.

[BusHunter]

The deal was that the TMCs got a life extending overhaul and air conditioners about 2001. The life extending overhaul supposedly had a service life of maybe 6 years. So, theoretically, the FTA 12 year service life of the 5300s (which did not get the overhaul) ended in 2003, while the TMCs had a theoretical FTA service life until say 2007-2008.

Isn't true that the service life of a bus is the standard 12 years even though it has been rehabbed. You can't rehab the entire bus, like it's frame which is aging as well. I view it as moreless a band - aid, because they should be buying buses then and don't due to finiancial limitations. They tell us the buses should be good for 6 more years, but are they or is that just good PR to make us feel good. If something happened to the bus structurally, the FTA wouldn't stand behind it after 12 years. Isn't that what they're basically telling us from the Federal level? Wouldn't that be a big liability problem for transit agencies. Look at the D.C. situation. The news media reported the train cars there were old. The lead car of that second train basically split apart on impact. Would a newer train have held up better? It's something that gets you thinking. As far as rehab's lasting, tell that to #6203. Rehabbed in April '08, retired by Sept '08. That must have been a real bad rehab. It didn't last but a few months. At least it can keep #6305 company. Probably the two shiniest buses in the scrapyard!! :lol:

[Busjack]

I think all the FTA is saying (and I don't have direct proof that they said it) is that if we put another $100,000 (hypothetical amount) of taxpayers' money into the bus, that investment should last another 6 years.

As shown by the NABI fiasco, the FTA isn't standing behind anything, in the sense of warranting that the bus is structurally sound. Furthermore, the only real federal sanction would be withholding money for the eventual replacement (there also being the theoretical sanction of asking for some money back).

There are similar things on the L, such as that whatever work was done on the Green Line has an FTA lifetime of 40 years, but that didn't stop it from giving permission to knock down part of it on 63rd St., even though chicago-l.org claims that some work was done at Dorchester before it was demolished. On the other hand you have wrecks (such as Pace 6047 and 6173) sitting in the yard for the apparent reason that their 12 years are not over yet. So, it is hard to figure it out.

The only reason I mentioned it is in response to the question whether there was some rationale for picking between scrapping 5300s and 4400s. There was, but in a practical sense, not much of one.

[BusExpert32]

As far as rehab's lasting, tell that to #6203. Rehabbed in April '08, retired by Sept '08. That must have been a real bad rehab. It didn't last but a few months. At least it can keep #6305 company. Probably the two shiniest buses in the scrapyard!!

Have any of the 38 supposedly retired 6000s actually been destroyed yet? Or are they all sitting in the scrapyard?

Speaking hypothetically, if another bus got beat up pretty bad and a replacement was needed, would buses like #6203 or #6305 be put back into service?

Also, #6310 is on the #75 75th-74th right now. It's retired on your list, but not on greenstreet's list, so maybe not much hype to it. It's probably just a small mistake.

[BusHunter]

Have any of the 38 supposedly retired 6000s actually been destroyed yet? Or are they all sitting in the scrapyard?

Speaking hypothetically, if another bus got beat up pretty bad and a replacement was needed, would buses like #6203 or #6305 be put back into service?

Also, #6310 is on the #75 75th-74th right now. It's retired on your list, but not on greenstreet's list, so maybe not much hype to it. It's probably just a small mistake.

Yeah #6310 is still around. I'll fix that. So I guess we still have a mystery bus out there. I'm back up to 293 left. In regards to stuff coming back, probably only the most recently retired could come back. Those buses are mainly being used now for parts most likely.

[Busjack]

Those buses are mainly being used now for parts most likely.

Also, I suppose that there was a reason other than age that some were retired before their mates, sort of like 6274's reason, thus probably resulting in their being cannibalized. If there is such a reason, they won't be back.

Not that I know the reason for the 36, 37, or 38 or so deleted from peoples' rosters.

Also, from what I saw that was visible over the fence at 77th and Perry, there doesn't seem to be much room to store anything other than NABIs. I couldn't tell from the street if there was anything else in those lots, but if there were, it was well shielded by the wall of buses with two bumps on top.

[Busjack]

Oh, goody, a Wikipedia edit war has broken out over this. I'm starting to think that Wikipedia is being taken over by the thugs, anyway,

[BusExpert32]

Oh, goody, a Wikipedia edit war has broken out over this. I'm starting to think that Wikipedia is being taken over by the thugs, anyway,

Those editors don't seem like chicagobus.org readers. The number of Flxibles has been reported to be somewhere between 292-294 on this site's forum, currently.

[Busjack]

Those editors don't seem like chicagobus.org readers. The number of Flxibles has been reported to be somewhere between 292-294 on this site's forum, currently.

I suppose that this forum would be a verifiable source according to Wikipedia policy. Of course, whether it is the best evidence or primary source ... (I've intimated about that before).

[Busjack]

The war continues. Someone posted a CTA source that said (as of April) that there were 299 Flxs, and only 480 Novas (3 more gone than we figure). I guess the war of the verifiable sources continues, and April isn't June.

I guess I'll observe this like a Demolition Derby or a Jeff Hardy WWE match.

I also guess that the source is not so "Confidential (For internal use only)" if it was posted on the Internet.

[BusHunter]

The war continues. Someone posted a CTA source that said (as of April) that there were 299 Flxs, and only 480 Novas (3 more gone than we figure).

480 Nova's is correct. 484 - 4 equals 480. (#6832, #6738, #6726 and #6568 gone) The more interesting part of the link was the pursuit of the 140 base order artics out of 900 mentioned before. that would put us to 348 and climbing if it happens. Also of interest is the gasoline hybrid aspect of that order, which sounds as if it's a new type. Also what's with a 2016 picture at the end of the presentation? Could an announcement somehow be linked to the October announcement of whether or not we get the olympics.

[geneking7320]

:) FWIW, this past Wednesday (7/8/09) I rode Flxible #6220 which was working route 112 Vincennes -111th. The bus seemed to be in good shape.

Gene King