6000-series Flxible - Retirements

[Busjack]

If you want to do some number crunching, I had previously assumed that terminating the X routes accounted only for about 33% of the buses to be pulled from the street. However, since some resources are being put back into the locals, maybe that knocks that number to 28%.

In any event, even though they are retaining downtown express service (something they threatened to cut in 2005-2007, except for the ones that also ran Sunday), it appears that the reduction in frequency system-wide may be more severe than thought. I suppose that if someone really wants to analyze how many buses are needed where, they would have to compare the existing schedule to the frequencies indicated in the Passenger Alerts. Probably every route (after adding back resources from the Xs) loses 1/8th of what it had.

However, we will know in less than 2 weeks anyway, so the exercise may not be worth the effort.

[jajuan]

If you want to do some number crunching, I had previously assumed that terminating the X routes accounted only for about 33% of the buses to be pulled from the street. However, since some resources are being put back into the locals, maybe that knocks that number to 28%.

In any event, even though they are retaining downtown express service (something they threatened to cut in 2005-2007, except for the ones that also ran Sunday), it appears that the reduction in frequency system-wide may be more severe than thought. I suppose that if someone really wants to analyze how many buses are needed where, they would have to compare the existing schedule to the frequencies indicated in the Passenger Alerts. Probably every route (after adding back resources from the Xs) loses 1/8th of what it had.

However, we will know in less than 2 weeks anyway, so the exercise may not be worth the effort.

You're right it may not be, but with every route losing 1/8 of what it had it would still leave close to the same proportion of resources, which was in part what I thought about in how they can make this work.

[wordguy]

If you want to do some number crunching, I had previously assumed that terminating the X routes accounted only for about 33% of the buses to be pulled from the street. However, since some resources are being put back into the locals, maybe that knocks that number to 28%.

In any event, even though they are retaining downtown express service (something they threatened to cut in 2005-2007, except for the ones that also ran Sunday), it appears that the reduction in frequency system-wide may be more severe than thought. I suppose that if someone really wants to analyze how many buses are needed where, they would have to compare the existing schedule to the frequencies indicated in the Passenger Alerts. Probably every route (after adding back resources from the Xs) loses 1/8th of what it had.

However, we will know in less than 2 weeks anyway, so the exercise may not be worth the effort.

Speaking of number crunching, I'm wondering how the retirement of the Flxibles will affect rush-hour service. My understanding is that an acceptable spare ratio (based on overall fleet size relative to peak service needs) is considered to be 17%. Maybe I'm wrong, but the service cuts aren't planned to have a major impact on rush-hour service, are they?

With 2,050 buses (maybe a tad fewer than that now), the CTA would be using about 1,700 buses during peak periods. (I don't know how many buses are ACTUALLY used). So, if the service cuts do happen, the CTA bus fleet would be reduced to about 1,770: a spare ratio of 4%! Now I realize that the average age of the fleet, minus the Flxs., will be relatively low. But still, a 4% spare ratio? Sounds awfully dicey to me!

[jajuan]

Speaking of number crunching, I'm wondering how the retirement of the Flxibles will affect rush-hour service. My understanding is that an acceptable spare ratio (based on overall fleet size relative to peak service needs) is considered to be 17%. Maybe I'm wrong, but the service cuts aren't planned to have a major impact on rush-hour service, are they?

With 2,050 buses (maybe a tad fewer than that now), the CTA would be using about 1,700 buses during peak periods. (I don't know how many buses are ACTUALLY used). So, if the service cuts do happen, the CTA bus fleet would be reduced to about 1,770: a spare ratio of 4%! Now I realize that the average age of the fleet, minus the Flxs., will be relatively low. But still, a 4% spare ratio? Sounds awfully dicey to me!

Some parts of the rush hour will be impacted. Max AM rush intervals they give in the cut info is going to be 20 mins and in the PM rush up to 15. I'm guessing that would be starting into the rush hour and as rush hour winds down though. Even in the busy parts of the rush intervals will be longer. For example morning rush intervals on the 82 is currently 5 mins. That minimum time goes to about 10 after the cuts go through. Similar on plenty of other routes so the rush hour is impacted. To what degree depends on the route in question.

[rotjohns]

Some parts of the rush hour will be impacted. Max AM rush intervals they give in the cut info is going to be 20 mins and in the PM rush up to 15. I'm guessing that would be starting into the rush hour and as rush hour winds down though. Even in the busy parts of the rush intervals will be longer. For example morning rush intervals on the 82 is currently 5 mins. That minimum time goes to about 10 after the cuts go through. Similar on plenty of other routes so the rush hour is impacted. To what degree depends on the route in question.

This is making me wonder if this is why CTA ordered 60-footers in the 1st place? Could they have forshadowed these cuts? Probably not. But they did say back when Huberman was running it that the 60-footers will replace many of the 40-foot Flexibles. His logic was "bigger buses, more room for passengers." Therefore making the interval times to 10 minutes would make sense IF they had more of them. They don't! Now the aformentioned route 82 occasionally has 60-footers. But so does route 52-Kedzie/Calif (usually 1 or 2 per day). If they were to put some of them on 49-Western (one of many routes that need them), then I'd understand. 20 minutes is a long wait for someone needing to make a connection to get somewhere. I understand the Flxibles gotta go, they are too old and breaking down almost daily. I can only hope for several of my friends who depend on CTA every day that they will take into account what buses need to go where to accomodate longer wait times.

[Busjack]

This is making me wonder if this is why CTA ordered 60-footers in the 1st place? Could they have forshadowed these cuts? Probably not. But they did say back when Huberman was running it that the 60-footers will replace many of the 40-foot Flexibles. His logic was "bigger buses, more room for passengers."...

That might have been the original rationale for leasing 4000-4149, but that went out the window when the NABIs took a permanent siesta. Clearly, 4000-4207 are now used to replace 7500-7726

Update: Maybe if they sufficiently knock down frequency on the LSD routes, that might free up some 4000s for somewhere else. But that doesn't seem to be what you were saying.

[rotjohns]

That might have been the original rationale for leasing 4000-4149, but that went out the window when the NABIs took a permanent siesta. Clearly, 4000-4207 are now used to replace 7500-7726

Update: Maybe if they sufficiently knock down frequency on the LSD routes, that might free up some 4000s for somewhere else. But that doesn't seem to be what you were saying.

I don't know, most of the LSD buses are very heavy, especially during rush hour. Now during non-peak periods, no reason for 60-footers I wouldn't think. And looking at some of the routes and their timetables, it appears they are knocked down pretty hard. CTA is gonna have to do something about the overcrowding that will take place on a lot of these routes.

[sw4400]

That might have been the original rationale for leasing 4000-4149, but that went out the window when the NABIs took a permanent siesta. Clearly, 4000-4207 are now used to replace 7500-7726

Update: Maybe if they sufficiently knock down frequency on the LSD routes, that might free up some 4000s for somewhere else. But that doesn't seem to be what you were saying.

7500-7725 you mean?

[Busjack]

7500-7725 you mean?

Whatever. They're taking a dirt nap, anyway.

[mel bernero]

At least two Flxibles were out today, Saturday. 6167 was running Central and 6140 was on Milwaukee.

Mel

[rotjohns]

At least two Flxibles were out today, Saturday. 6167 was running Central and 6140 was on Milwaukee.

Mel

That's strange given the fact we only have a week to go before they are all gone. No Flxibles should be out at all this weekend if there are plenty of NF buses.

[jajuan]

That's strange given the fact we only have a week to go before they are all gone. No Flxibles should be out at all this weekend if there are plenty of NF buses.

Not at all a strange sight. Forest Glen and 74th (not as much for this one) were two garages from which you could see Flxibles put on the road on the weekend. 74th eased back in recent months on using them on the weekend but it wasn't out of the ordinary to see them on the weekend from Forest Glen.

[BusExpert32]

At least two Flxibles were out today, Saturday. 6167 was running Central and 6140 was on Milwaukee.

Mel

There were also 7 Flxs on #77 Belmont on Saturday.

Anyway, does anyone know how many of the 255 Flxibles are at each garage?

[BusHunter]

There were also 7 Flxs on #77 Belmont on Saturday.

Anyway, does anyone know how many of the 255 Flxibles are at each garage?

OK, these are the last buses retired in late Jan/early Feb 2010 prior to mothballing at Archer. #6005, #6006, #6011, #6025, #6035, #6037, #6067, #6068, #6074, #6082, #6099, #6124, #6126, #6151, #6159, #6178, #6215, #6217, #6240, #6263, #6273, #6283, #6285, #6286, #6294, #6324 and #6325. This gets us down to 249 left.

[BusExpert32]

These 45 buses have been not been in revenue service since last monday. I don't know if we'll see them again in service or not. #6005, #6006, #6009, #6011, #6025, #6031, #6035, #6037, #6057, #6059, #6066, #6067, #6068, #6074, #6076, #6082, #6099, #6124, #6126, #6130, #6143, #6145, #6151, #6159, #6178, #6183, #6204, #6207, #6209, #6215, #6217, #6223, #6224, #6238, #6240, #6260, #6263, #6273, #6283, #6285, #6286, #6294, #6310, #6324 and #6325. Take away these 45 (not entirely positive there all retired) It would leave 232 running in service as of last week.

6145 was in service last week, and 6143 has been retired for a long time.

[rideonrulez]

These 45 buses have been not been in revenue service since last monday. I don't know if we'll see them again in service or not. #6005, #6006, #6009, #6011, #6025, #6031, #6035, #6037, #6057, #6059, #6066, #6067, #6068, #6074, #6076, #6082, #6099, #6124, #6126, #6130, #6143, #6145, #6151, #6159, #6178, #6183, #6204, #6207, #6209, #6215, #6217, #6223, #6224, #6238, #6240, #6260, #6263, #6273, #6283, #6285, #6286, #6294, #6310, #6324 and #6325. Take away these 45 (not entirely positive there all retired) It would leave 232 running in service as of last week.

As of today, the count is 249 Flx's still in service.

[jajuan]

As of today, the count is 249 Flx's still in service.

So 17 of the buses Buhunter says weren't seen are officially retired apparently.

[sw4400]

It would leave 237 running in service as of last week.

Quote from Bushunter in BusExpert32's reply shows 232

As of today, the count is 249 Flx's still in service.

I show 238. 4 different numbers!?! We can't all be right. Someone help sort out this number mess. My total is 238, Bushunter's is 237(in quote 232), ridonrulez says 249...

[Busjack]

... We can't all be right. Someone help sort out this number mess. My total is 238, Bushunter's is 237(in quote 232), ridonrulez says 249...

Unless something possibly foreseen happens, in approximately 144 hours, given plus or minus a few, the number will be zero or slightly above. So, it really doesn't matter.

[BusHunter]

Quote from Bushunter in BusExpert32's reply shows 232

I show 238. 4 different numbers!?! We can't all be right. Someone help sort out this number mess. My total is 238, Bushunter's is 240(in quote 232), ridonrulez says 249...

I'm not denying there's 249 left. I'm just stating that those 240 I have seen in service since last monday. I don't know what 9 off my list are not "retired". (If someone knows let me know) I learned this morning about the other 4 still around and #6143 which I put in error and I updated what I had. If I can narrow the list down further I will so the totals may still change on my version of the list.

[BusExpert32]

I also wonder if any of the 28 recently retired Flxibles would return to service if the cuts don't happen.

[sw4400]

Countdown To The Final Flxibles In Service

Get those cameras out/get your last rides... Today, Tomorrow, or Sunday may be the absolute last day for the Flxibles.

[jajuan]

Countdown To The Final Flxibles In Service

Get those cameras out/get your last rides... Today, Tomorrow, or Sunday may be the absolute last day for the Flxibles.

That's if after the shuffling in the remaining seven garages, FG somehow magically has room to have even a few on hand for a few runs which I don't see. Archer will be closed Sunday not Monday, so that's a consideration to keep in mind. I'd say to be on the safe side, bank on getting your photos while you can through tomorrow.

[rotjohns]

That's if after the shuffling in the remaining seven garages, FG somehow magically has room to have even a few on hand for a few runs which I don't see. Archer will be closed Sunday not Monday, so that's a consideration to keep in mind. I'd say to be on the safe side, bank on getting your photos while you can through tomorrow.

Driving on western last night towards 79th, I spotted 6218 & 6225 going northbound towards 79th. One said out of service, the other said 34-south michigan. That tells me that both are not from 74th. Don't know where they were heading (I should've followed them), but I do believe the moves to purge the flxibles began last night.

[Busjack]

Driving on western last night towards 79th, I spotted 6218 & 6225 going northbound towards 79th. One said out of service, the other said 34-south michigan. That tells me that both are not from 74th. Don't know where they were heading (I should've followed them), but I do believe the moves to purge the flxibles began last night.

The more interesting question is from where they came, since there certainly is no garage south of there, and going northbound could be consistent with going to 74th. Now, if the same sighting were at, say, 47th and Western, or eastbound on 79th... (you get the idea in what direction I'm heading).