More Bus Moves

[andrethebusman]

I know some 1500's going 103 to 74 in return for 1100's. No specifics yet.

[garmon757]

74th now has sole possession of buses 1522-1539 and 103rd has sole possession of all 1100s, including 1115, 1117, 1118, 1145-1147, 1154-1161, 1163-1165, 1171, 1175, 1181, 1193, 1196, and 1197, and also has 1211. 

[RJL6000]

4 hours ago, garmon757 said:

74th now has sole possession of buses 1522-1539 and 103rd has sole possession of all 1100s, including 1115, 1117, 1118, 1145-1147, 1154-1161, 1163-1165, 1171, 1175, 1181, 1193, 1196, and 1197, and also has 1211. 

In addition to the above:

1206 was transferred from Kedzie to 103rd. 1435-1438 went from Kedzie to 74th. The rest of 103rd's 1650s through 1670s (1659, 1661, 1667, 1668 and 1677) went to Kedize.

[garmon757]

42 minutes ago, RJL6000 said:

In addition to the above:

1206 was transferred from Kedzie to 103rd. 1435-1438 went from Kedzie to 74th. The rest of 103rd's 1650s through 1670s went to Kedize.

Bringing back the remaining 1600s to Kedzie makes sense but giving 74th more 1400s seems very odd. What's very stupid is 77th still having some 1600s though and they took nearly 20 buses from 74th. If I'm not mistaking, they owe 74th about 15-20 buses or at least give them 1540-48. 

[BusHunter]

1 hour ago, RJL6000 said:

In addition to the above:

1206 was transferred from Kedzie to 103rd. 1435-1438 went from Kedzie to 74th. The rest of 103rd's 1650s through 1670s (1659, 1661, 1667, 1668 and 1677) went to Kedize.

Well then that sounds like 103rd is done transferring buses. They now have #1034 - #1210.

[RJL6000]

1 hour ago, garmon757 said:

Bringing back the remaining 1600s to Kedzie makes sense but giving 74th more 1400s seems very odd. What's very stupid is 77th still having some 1600s though and they took nearly 20 buses from 74th. If I'm not mistaking, they owe 74th about 15-20 buses or at least give them 1540-48. 

With all of 103rd's New Flyer buses now in one huge continguous block, that garage will sit out the next "swapocalypse". Instead, expect the next major swap to involve 77th in addition to 74th and Kedzie (and possibly Chicago and North Park). In this scenario, most of the rest of the 1200s and about half of the 1300s which remain at other garages will end up at 77th, while other 1300s, what 1400s left at 77th and Kedzie (and perhaps even 1540-1548) will end up at 74th. The remaining upper 1500s left at both 74th and 77th and the remaining 77th's 1600s will end up at Kedzie.

[sw4400]

26 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

Well then that sounds like 103rd is done transferring buses. They now have #1034 - #1210.

I would still look for a 103rd to FG direct transfer(no swaps) of some(or maybe all) of 1034-1210..... the wild card in all this is where in the world 8200-8324 will end up when they start appearing at South Shops. If FG, less New Flyers needed there..... if 103rd, 77th, 74th or Chicago, more New Flyers needed there....

[BusHunter]

1 hour ago, sw4400 said:

I would still look for a 103rd to FG direct transfer(no swaps) of some(or maybe all) of 1034-1210..... the wild card in all this is where in the world 8200-8324 will end up when they start appearing at South Shops. If FG, less New Flyers needed there..... if 103rd, 77th, 74th or Chicago, more New Flyers needed there....

I don't think FG is getting anymore NF's. (unless the Novas go to 103rd, which is not likely) This will leave them 30 short at least by the time they get all the Novas and I think that's only possible if you go up to #8349. So it probably will happen that way and the electric buses will take car of the rest of the #6800's. Ironically what FG has started out with, 60 something NF's, is all they'll ever have. That's really amazing out of 1,050 buses, they never will have got more than 60-70 buses throughout their lifetimes here. If they retain the #8200's and they probably will even when you retire the NF's, they still will not come to the glen. 

I was thinking in a way if they can maintain this sequentially numbered fleet it would work out well because then it's a given that the first new buses will always start south and end up north. North side will always have the newest of the fleet and the south side will get them first. Then I don't think we can really complain about the fleets being unequal. We'll see how that turns out though because that sounds like a perfect world and we know this is not a perfect world. 

(So far though FG is the anomoly on that with it's #1000's)

[RJL6000]

By the way, giving 74th more 1400s does make a bit of sense at this time, given that 74th will end up with most if not all of the 1400s by the time the "swapocalypse" is finished.

[wordguy]

I'm trying to figure out the logic of having a single numerical block of 40-foot New Flyers at each garage.   It seems to me that it would make a lot more sense to have two,  three,  or even four series at each barn.  That would allow much greater flexibility when equipment needs to be transferred among garages.  

Also,  considering the 3-year-plus age difference between the newest and oldest NFs,  the fleet would age out more evenly.

I realize that 103rd Street now has that single numerical block,  but does anyone really know if that pattern will be repeated at the other garages,  or is it just speculation?

[BusHunter]

18 minutes ago, wordguy said:

I'm trying to figure out the logic of having a single numerical block of 40-foot New Flyers at each garage.   It seems to me that it would make a lot more sense to have two,  three,  or even four series at each barn.  That would allow much greater flexibility when equipment needs to be transferred among garages.  

Also,  considering the 3-year-plus age difference between the newest and oldest NFs,  the fleet would age out more evenly.

I realize that 103rd Street now has that single numerical block,  but does anyone really know if that pattern will be repeated at the other garages,  or is it just speculation?

Well I would imagine it would be at least done at 74th. They don't want a situation like "does #1162 have a tsp?" When #1161 is somewhere else. All transfers so far seem to agree to the notion that all garages will be sequential. The only thing you could argue is the transfers of #1800's to Chicago when maybe those should be at np, but who's to say np won't get all #1900's, but that is alot of transferring for Chicago garage.

[andrethebusman]

Bus Moves over the weekend 04/18/16.

Buses In

103rd = 1115,1117,1118,1145,1146,1147,1154-1161,1163,1164,116+5,1171,1175,1181,1193,1196,1197,1206.

74th = 1435-1438,1522-1539.

Kedzie = 1659,1661,1667,1668,1677.

 

Buses Out

103rd = 1522-1539,1659,1661,1667,1668,1677.

74 th  = 1115,1117,1118,1145,1146,1147,1154-1161,1163,1164,1165,1171,1175,1181,1193,1196,1197.

Kedzie = 1206,1435-1438.

 

Who will be next? 77th? 1212-1395 or so?

[ajm522]

Just now, andrethebusman said:

Bus Moves over the weekend 04/18/16.

Buses In

103rd = 1115,1117,1118,1145,1146,1147,1154-1161,1163,1164,116+5,1171,1175,1181,1193,1196,1197,1206.

74th = 1435-1438,1522-1539.

Kedzie = 1659,1661,1667,1668,1677.

 

Buses Out

103rd = 1522-1539,1659,1661,1667,1668,1677.

74 th  = 1115,1117,1118,1145,1146,1147,1154-1161,1163,1164,1165,1171,1175,1181,1193,1196,1197.

Kedzie = 1206,1435-1438.

 

Who will be next? 77th? 1212-1395 or so?

I'm still skeptical. I don't know why 77th would get those 1400's and 1900's to just give them up. But we will see. 

[Dawnlight]

Is FG going to keep at least 100 6400s if they do bring the 8200's to them?

[sw4400]

24 minutes ago, Dawnlight said:

Is FG going to keep at least 100 6400s if they do bring the 8200's to them?

FG needs around 200-250 buses to maintain service on all it's routes(they need spares for emergencies in case of breakdowns, accidents, etc....), so to cover base on both with all equipment variables on property between now and the end of 2017....

If Forest Glen gets the last option of Novas with total roster of 200 buses:

• 8200-8324(125 Buses)
• 1000-1074(75 Buses)

If Forest Glen gets the last option of Novas with the total roster of 250 buses:

• 8200-8324(125 Buses)
• 1000-1124(125 Buses)

If Forest Glen gets no Novas and goes all New Flyer with the total roster of 200 buses:

• 1000-1199

If Forest Glen gets no Novas and goes all New Flyer with the total roster of 250 buses:

• 1000-1249

 

What will operate out of Forest Glen depends upon where this wild card is dealt to.... the 6400-Series Novas(whatever CTA decides to keep that is operational) won't last beyond 2017 at the most....

[BusHunter]

The #6400's will last up until the electric bus order is executed. I'm assuming that could be 2018 or 2019 depending on how fast someone could build those. They'll no doubt be some downsizing in fleet once FG gets some newer buses regardless of what that is. Maybe fleet size will shrink to somewhere between 200-230. I'm going with about 30-50 #6400 buses left after FG gets what it's getting.  

[Busjack]

45 minutes ago, sw4400 said:

If Forest Glen gets the last option of Novas with the total roster of 250 buses:

• 8200-8324(125 Buses)
• 1000-1124(125 Buses)

Your "ifs" leave out the if on which BusHunter is counting and with regard to the first one is obvious (and I see BusHunter beat me to typing it):

Then BusHunter has contended that  CTA will exercise the options for 8325-8349, although I think that is more speculative.

I still think C has to disgorge more NFs. It seems like at this point, most of the consolidation is on the south side.

[sw4400]

21 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

The #6400's will last up until the electric bus order is executed. I'm assuming that could be 2018 or 2019 depending on how fast someone could build those. They'll no doubt be some downsizing in fleet once FG gets some newer buses regardless of what that is. Maybe fleet size will shrink to somewhere between 200-230. I'm going with about 30-50 #6400 buses left after FG gets what it's getting.  

I think we have a painted picture of where the electric buses will end up once the contract is procured and picked up by a manufacturer and delivery begins.... it seems odd that 700 remains at Kedzie while 701 has found it's way to 77th. There's only 27 or so buses expected in this order, so about a even split of the buses between Kedzie and 77th seems like the way this will go. At that time, who knows if the 6400's will even be around. It doesn't seem prudent to keep 30-50 buses that will be 16-17 years old and probably needing frequent maintenance since they never got a life extending overhaul done on them, just touch up maintenance on equipment that needs to be functioning.... for example, some kneelers are shot on the Novas and CTA Maintenance doesn't seem to be interested in repairing them.

Even if CTA did decide to get 8325-8349(doubtful because that should've been picked up with 8200-8324), the total order of Novas would not replace the total number of Novas we had(450 vs. 484).

[Busjack]

2 hours ago, sw4400 said:

I think we have a painted picture of where the electric buses will end up once the contract is procured and picked up by a manufacturer and delivery begins

But the relevance to your prior point was "ifs" not taking into account that some 6400s are going to hang around until the electrics arrive--especially given the justification CTA gave to CMAP for using CMAQ money for that project. Some electrics may go to other garages, but that just frees up  other buses to go to FG. So, you are wrong in saying

2 hours ago, sw4400 said:

At that time, who knows if the 6400's will even be around.

  If nothing else, it wouldn't be any different than CTA and Pace keeping around buses past their service life, because the agencies wrecked buses that had not reached their service life.

2 hours ago, sw4400 said:

so about a even split of the buses between Kedzie and 77th seems like the way this will go.

You can't tell that from testing 2 buses. I don't know if thinking from the original CMAQ application still holds, but it included 28 and 29, which are 103 routes, and some Loop Link routes now  assigned to C.

The 2016 budget mentioned having the money for up to 50 buses in the out years of the 5-year capital plan (page 70).

2 hours ago, sw4400 said:

Even if CTA did decide to get 8325-8349(doubtful because that should've been picked up with 8200-8324), the total order of Novas would not replace the total number of Novas we had(450 vs. 484).

Again, you forgot all the press releases that the Optimas and Novas were to be replaced by the 7900s and  4300s.That's 550 buses (projected)   to replace 528.                 

[jajuan]

6 hours ago, sw4400 said:

FG needs around 200-250 buses to maintain service on all it's routes(they need spares for emergencies in case of breakdowns, accidents, etc....), so to cover base on both with all equipment variables on property between now and the end of 2017....

If Forest Glen gets the last option of Novas with total roster of 200 buses:

• 8200-8324(125 Buses)
• 1000-1074(75 Buses)

If Forest Glen gets the last option of Novas with the total roster of 250 buses:

• 8200-8324(125 Buses)
• 1000-1124(125 Buses)

If Forest Glen gets no Novas and goes all New Flyer with the total roster of 200 buses:

• 1000-1199

If Forest Glen gets no Novas and goes all New Flyer with the total roster of 250 buses:

• 1000-1249

 

What will operate out of Forest Glen depends upon where this wild card is dealt to.... the 6400-Series Novas(whatever CTA decides to keep that is operational) won't last beyond 2017 at the most....

 

5 hours ago, Busjack said:

Your "ifs" leave out the if on which BusHunter is counting and with regard to the first one is obvious (and I see BusHunter beat me to typing it):

Then BusHunter has contended that  CTA will exercise the options for 8325-8349, although I think that is more speculative.

I still think C has to disgorge more NFs. It seems like at this point, most of the consolidation is on the south side.

His ifs also ignored the fact that CTA already negated their possibility by appearing to be consolidating 1034-1210 roughly at 103rd. If they wanted FG to go past 1033 any time soon, they very easily could have been keeping that going these past several weeks instead of realigning NFs at 103rd to be 1034+ going up to however many 40 foot buses 103rd needs against its allotment of 60 footers to keep service going on its assigned routes. You and BH are right that they stopped FG at 1033 to set things up for a number of 6400s to remain until the additional electrics come.

[Busjack]

4 minutes ago, jajuan said:

 

His ifs also ignored the fact that CTA already negated their possibility by appearing to be consolidating 1034-1210 roughly at 103rd. If they wanted FG to go past 1033 any time soon, they very easily could have been keeping that going these past several weeks instead of realigning NFs at 103rd to be 1034+ going up to however many 40 foot buses 103rd needs against its allotment of 60 footers to keep service going on its assigned routes. You and BH are right that they stopped FG at 1033 to set things up for a number of 6400s to remain until the additional electrics come.

While anything is possible, it would be extremely wasteful to consolidate at 103rd just to move them again. I wonder how much overtime is spent in the continuing swapopcalapse

[jajuan]

10 minutes ago, Busjack said:

While anything is possible, it would be extremely wasteful to consolidate at 103rd just to move them again. I wonder how much overtime is spent in the continuing swapopcalapse

Good question especially if the plan is to get NFs at the other five garages beyond FG and 103rd in some form of contiguous numerical order as well. Whatever the overall plan turns out to be, they'll need to get NF assignments at 74th and NP stable so that they can get those NFs TSP equipped for Ashland(74th) and Western(74th and NP).

[BusHunter]

That's still assuming np does the #49. Why would they equip the whole 74th garage with tsp, when really they only needed half. 

On the #8325 option, I think they almost have to execute that option or they will have #6400's way into 2019-20 when they will be shopping for #1000 replacements.

[Busjack]

21 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

That's still assuming np does the #49. Why would they equip the whole 74th garage with tsp, when really they only needed half. 

Because while a dispatcher may be smart enough to distinguish a Nova from a NF, he/she probably can't distinguish what buses have TSP from which don't unless they are like Pace of about 14 years ago and put a decal on each bus. Remember when BusTracker came out, they said that all of 74th had to be made capable. Even if there enough Novas to run Western and Ashland, that would mean that the rest of 74th would only get older buses.

[jajuan]

39 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

That's still assuming np does the #49. Why would they equip the whole 74th garage with tsp, when really they only needed half. 

On the #8325 option, I think they almost have to execute that option or they will have #6400's way into 2019-20 when they will be shopping for #1000 replacements.

Ummm don't forget Western gets TSP all the way up to Howard, so that still involves 49B which is still NP either way it goes.