Newest Proposal to Close the Budget Gap

[cta_44499_FG]

I can now see why, Cta is picking up such a large number of Artics (Up 900 + the already 208 on the street) ...pack more folks on the buses with more room,...while at the same time,...doing so with less buses and ultimately overwhelming the Operator. Sad really...so basically all of the Part Time Bus Operators, as well as a good chunk of the Full Time Operators, will be cut... "Laid off" WOW.

(I'm not much surprised that the 6000s are on their way out. They are out of parts, The Flxible Corp. is wayyy out the picture to supply more parts, basically if something is wrong with the 6000, the mechanics do the best they can with what they've got. Like once, I written up a bus with a bad kneeler, (it kneeled, but didnt raise back up, ultimately resting the bus itself, on top of the wheels, creating an UNSAFE hazard..and not to mention hard to steer and turn) The way they fixed that "problem" was..to disable to kneeler all together. You've got poor old-folks trying climb up the stairs yelling out, "Can you lower it?!!" And I'm like..."I can't! Its a REALLY old bus!" lol

And closing Archer!! WOW!!! I can see 4000s running on the 49, and the 21 ..it's going to be odd! Cta perhaps may as well even put some NABI 7500s Artics back on the street temporary, if NEED-BE, because its to my understanding that NOT all of them had the same level of structural cracking and hinge joint damage) I'M HOPEFUL OF THIS..though I probably won't have a chance to drive them again.

I haven't been here for any of the previous "doomsday" scenarios... but THIS ONE, has to be the far worst one yet.

Time to go job hunting...or perhaps, go back to LA Metro.

I wouldn't get worried just yet....I've been hearing this every year for the last 3 years. I'm still here...I don't buy it until the day it happens.

[BusHunter]

But, do we think at this point there is a swap in the works that the 6000s get dumped, and basically Archer's 6400s are swapped for them? Of course, that would get FG back to an almost all Nova lot, which we unsuccessfully predicted about 2 years ago, unless it gets more NFs than the 30 or so reported so far. Or will the maintenance gurus say they don't want 200 NFs and 40 Novas in most of the remaining garages (103, C, and K) nor a "double allocation" at 74 and FG?

To avoid those who said I left out NP, I don't see it having other than NFs. I also left out 77, because it already has Novas and not 6000s.

With most of the #6000's at 74th and FG (around 80 at each garage)I think they would most likely be replaced with Nova's from Archer. 103rd could absorb their #6000 loss as well as Chicago, especially if 103rd ends up with the Optimas. Kedzie would probably lose a few routes to NP like the #145 or #151 shortliner or #148 and pick up the North end of Archer's territory. The real wildcard would be what to do with the #49? That's a long route with alot of buses to fill it. Kedzie would probably be too close to capacity to take it, especially if they took the #21 and #60. If 74th took it with the south and west ends of Archer's territory, it might push them to capacity. Probably the only way to do it would be to share the long routes. #8 to 77th maybe even #9, #3 and #4 to 103rd, #49,#50,#94,#54B to 74th. The #62 could go to either Kedzie or 74th. This will all most likely put NP, Kedzie and 74th at capacity.

[Busjack]

I can now see why, Cta is picking up such a large number of Artics (Up 900 + the already 208 on the street) ...pack more folks on the buses with more room,...while at the same time,...doing so with less buses and ultimately overwhelming the Operator. Sad really...so basically all of the Part Time Bus Operators, as well as a good chunk of the Full Time Operators, will be cut... "Laid off" WOW.

There might be a point to putting more artics on the street. But a reading of the 2010 budget seems contrary to that, in that (1) they are cutting back the number of buses and garages, and (2) the only things mentioned in the capital plan are making payments on Option 4 (1830-2029) and replacing the Novas when their service lives run out, but at the moment, they are getting mid-life rehabs, so that won't be until near the end of the 5 year capital plan.

We know that without the Olympics, there is no justification for the back end options. Scrapping the 6000s without replacement, presumably by the base order of 140, indicates that there is no need for the 140. There were also comments in the budget that they wanted state capital funding diverted to operating, and it appears that also might be justified by CTA no longer needing the 140. Hence, the whole 900 order may have been a joke on New Flyer. We don't know what the contingencies in that contract are, but BusHunter may have a point that New Flyer may have a law suit if either there was no intention to buy the base order, or CTA all the sudden gives Notice to Proceed under that contract in 2013.

I haven't been here for any of the previous "doomsday" scenarios... but THIS ONE, has to be the far worst one yet.

Time to go job hunting...or perhaps, go back to LA Metro.

No, this isn't. If you want to look back in the archives of this group for the past few years, CTA's original Doomsday Plan, not much altered through 2007, was to go to running the Sunday schedule 7 days a week. That would have resulted in over 700 buses being taken off the street, instead of the 280 in this plan. It also would have meant the end of transit service in the outer extremities of the CTA system, such as Evanston and West Rogers Park, most of the service NW of Jefferson Park, most of the Midway station service, and much of the service on the southeast side. It also, most idiotically, would have ended all rush hour express service. Click the link to the Tribune editorial in my prior post.

This is severe, but not the meat-axe the 2007 CTA and Pace plans were.

[artthouwill]

Of course, one has to take into account the X route and frequency cuts that are part of the budget. For instance, 74 loses X9, 53AL, and X55. Archer loses X49. If X80 bites it, 76 or maybe 54 probably goes to FG, and with X20 biting it, something goes to C; K gets back 21 and 60. 74 is depleted by losing the 3 routes, but probably can then pick up what's left from Archer. Also, Karnac predicts some realignment of 8 and 49 (back to the 74th/NP split for the latter?).

It is somewhat surprising that the number of buses to be cut equals the number of 6000s.

I would love to take a crack at how this could play out. This is just my opinion: if it were me, I'd

8 Halsted: K - 77th

10 Musuem: K to 103rd

21 Cermak: A - K

35 35th: A - K

39 Pershing: A - 77th (optimas)

43 43rd : A - 77th (optimas)

44 Wallace/Racine: 74th to 77th

49/X49 Western: A to 74th/NP

50 Damen: A to NP

54B S Cicero: A to 74th or C

55A/55N - Combine with 55 Garfield, alternating buses west of Mdw station, 74th garage

60 Blue Island/26: A to K

62H Archer: 74th

62 Archer: A to K

75 74/75: 74th to 77th

94 S California: A - 74th

134/143/145/148 - K to NP

77th has the most room followed by North Park

170/171/172 - A to 77th (optimas)

63W 63rd/165 W 65th: Combine with 63rd and still serve Midway Orange line operating from 74th

[trey824]

You know, I am really getting tired of this nonsense with this city and this state. Every year there is some new crisis somewhere when it comes to finances. Granted a part of it is valid given the tough economic times but part of it is waste too. I'm with sw4400. There is no need for every senior in the region to get free rides. That's a load of crap to say every senior is burdened financially when it's not the case. There are some seniors who are able to pay something. Those who can should be able to pay the $1 reduced fare that is paid by children 7 and older, students up through high school age, and the many of the disabled who are not enrolled in the Circuit Permit program through RTA. One thing that aggravates me more is that there is one person commenting on the article who gave his frustration with a neighbor who apparently is a CTA employee who works only 3-4 hours a day as he tells it and spends the rest of his work day at home washing his car, mowing his lawn and otherwise goofing off on CTA time and dime, but there is no indication that he reported this neighbor to the CTA Inspector General as suggested by another who gave his comment on the matter. How about cutting out the waste such as this guy and all the extra pencil pushing bureacrats brought in under Kruesi, and any other high paid bureaucrat whose need is questionable, working there before coming yet again to the riders, a lot of us who don't have other transportation options in this city, asking them to pay more for less. Also actually provide funding that's tied to sources that are actually stable and don't fluctuate wildly like the alternatives they came up in 2007, as pointed out by another person whose comment I saw for the article. We basically got one structurally flawed funding system substituted for another, since it should have dawned on someone in government that the economic picture would not always be so rosy as to provide the amounts projected when the economy is in good shape. Put in administrators who actually know something about the system their asked to head who won't make questionable decisions that loses the agency boatloads of money that it says it doesn't have. Yet when things come crashing down again, we're expected to suck it up and accept being hit in the pocket again because of this idiotic nonsense. It's gotten beyond ridiculous.

you know jajuan i agree with u so much on that and this is why i have to do my assessments on how to leave this terrible *** state immediately!

[New Flyer]

All CTA has to do is 1 Have all Part-Timers work Sat,Sun ,Holidays

2 Give the following routes to Pace 17,49A,All Evanston Routes

3 Get rid of free rides

4 Mayor get off some of that $500 million

5 Give runs more pull in time to cut down on overtime

you tell me they can't save over $100 million if they do this

[qwantae]

I'm Tired of all this PERIOD!!!!!!! Plus I'm sick and tired of Pace not accepting 1day, 2day, 3day passes and Proposed 30 bucks for a 7 day is ridiculous while Cleveland RTA's 7 day is only 13 bucks. At least I'm blessed to have a Foreign car(gas saver) to last longer to rather deal with travel to Du Page or Hammond to get gasoline in a good price, it only take me minutes shorter than a hour and half on entire Blue/ Red Line.

In my opinion, if all this fare hikes and cuts are going to happen, then the higher crimes is going to continue to go upper than it is now. I'm moving to Long Island NY next year, had enough of this nation's most stressful town (CHI). And Thank god for "No Olympics" even though I still love Chicago.

Plus I 100% Agree with Jajuan and Trey 824!!! Let's just pray, its all we can do.

[Busjack]

For those including sw and others, WGN-TV just said that da Mare supports repealing free rides. Tribune story. This will certainly prove whether Daley or Quinn is the most powerful politician in Illinois.

I think, though, that the reference to military personnel is incorrect, in that the City Council added that freebie to the ordinance imposing the Real Estate Transfer Tax.

[MetroShadow]

49/X49 Western: A to 74th/NP

I think for excessively long routes like this, you can definitely cut excessive deadheading time by assigning Both Routes to 74th and NP.

How about the issue of interlining some of the routes also?

[Busjack]

I think for excessively long routes like this, you can definitely cut excessive deadheading time by assigning Both Routes to 74th and NP.

How about the issue of interlining some of the routes also?

Of course, there won't be "both routes" as X49 would be dead.

Interlining would seem to be a new issue only if you have to get a bus to an area distant from a new garage, such as an occasional 55 interlining with 55A/N//W, whatever their status since the proposed restructuring didn't go through on the stated date. That may also raise an issue on where to send the Optimas, given that with the U of C cutbacks, they show up on the 170s, but also on 39, 43, and 55A/N.

[trainman8119]

Hence, the whole 900 order may have been a joke on New Flyer. We don't know what the contingencies in that contract are, but BusHunter may have a point that New Flyer may have a law suit if either there was no intention to buy the base order, or CTA all the sudden gives Notice to Proceed under that contract in 2013.

What would the ramifications be if CTA did (for lack of a better term) mislead New Flyer? Will other companies, New Flyer included, be willing to bid on CTA contracts in the future if they are going to be left holding the bag?? Would this spread to rail car manufacturing and other vehicle purchases also.

[Busjack]

What would the ramifications be if CTA did (for lack of a better term) mislead New Flyer? Will other companies, New Flyer included, be willing to bid on CTA contracts in the future if they are going to be left holding the bag?? Would this spread to rail car manufacturing and other vehicle purchases also.

That's also a good question, and we can only ask. The 406 rail cars seem pretty locked in. As for buses, if New Flyer felt sufficiently burned (i.e. they still thought they could eventually schedule the production, because "the customer said it still needed the buses for its replacement program, but was waiting for state funding" but now doesn't), and NABI was told it has no chance because of the artic debacle, and CTA wants articulated buses down the road, maybe that leaves Nova as the sole bidder (they sold a few to NYC MTA), or CTA has to hope that Orion brings the Daimler bus from Germany.

On the other hand, the bus builders (except Orion*) seem desperate enough to deal on the transit authorities' terms. Also, the CTA's statement that the state money has not come through yet seems supported by all three service boards' recent postings, so that contingency (assuming that it exists) is still in operation.

The more interesting question, implied by my prior comment, is that instead of giving Notice to Proceed sometime early in 2009, as implied by NF's Press Releases, CTA says in 2012 "we'll use this contract to replace some Novas, so here is your Notice to Proceed." Since the prices for the base order and option 1 are "firm," and for the other options based on the Producer Price Index from the Notice to Proceed, could CTA then stick NF with the 2008 price (supposedly around $840,000 each), or New Flyer say "the price now is $1 million each, and the PPI goes from there?" Besides causing more bad blood, CTA definitely is in lawsuit territory.

It is also in lawsuit territory if it appears that in 2012, the 2008 hybrid technology is dated, and CTA decides to replace Novas with DesignLine 42 footers (which would seem more suitable, if they test out in New York), or whatever new battery technology develops in the next couple of years.

_________________

*This press release says that Orion has a full order book for 2009, and orders made in August will be delivered some time in 2010.

[BusHunter]

This up to 900 contract has been strange since it came out. Why so many? Did CTA want to convert 1/4 to half of it's 40 foot fleet to 60's? With it's gas mileage as good as a 40 footer, it is enticing. Especially, when a crisis comes along, these would be handy. When you decrease frequency, to run a successful business I would think you would increase capacity. For instance, in there Feb 2010 projection, they state they would increase frequency from 10 or 12 minutes to 20. This just about would eliminate half the buses on a route. Can you imagine a #77 or #80 running with half it's buses? I think these would even run out of standing room, but with an artic it has a chance. It's not pretty but it works. As far as the contract itself, I don't know how long you can defer something. Is it indefinite until you say "alright we have the money"? In that case perhaps maybe I would just hang on and retire the Novas in 2012-13 with them. But I would think the price would change with inflation. They couldn't buy products with a four year discount placed on them. Isn't that part of what happened with the last options of the #1000's. Were they not a little bit more expensive than the original order? Also I never heard of a contract being made and at least not taking the first batch of it. Right now I don't think they can afford a railcar purchase and a bus purchase. With the budget claiming they have money to buy 525 railcars at least that's probably the direction they'll take until it's time to retire the Nova's.

[Busjack]

This up to 900 contract has been strange since it came out. ... But I would think the price would change with inflation. They couldn't buy products with a four year discount placed on them. Isn't that part of what happened with the last options of the #1000's. Were they not a little bit more expensive than the original order? Also I never heard of a contract being made and at least not taking the first batch of it. ...

Most of these are unanswerable, but the question about the price is. As I noted, in the up to 900 proposal, the proposer was to specify a firm price for the base order and Option 1, but the prices for the subsequent options are based on the Producer Price index added to the base price. The President's Report* indicates that the same deal was for Options 3 and 4 of the 1050 bus contract, noting the cost implications if the exercise were delayed.

The terms of the 900 proposal is that Options 2 through 4 will be exercised after exercising Option 1, if at all, so the contract could terminate just by not exercising Option 1.

_________________

*I had to Google this, as it went back further than I thought.

[Busjack]

sw and the RTA may have more ammo, in that WGN-TV reported on a study indicating that free rides would eventually cost $200M a year. Chicago Breaking News reference.

[MetroShadow]

That's also a good question, and we can only ask. The 406 rail cars seem pretty locked in. As for buses, if New Flyer felt sufficiently burned (i.e. they still thought they could eventually schedule the production, because "the customer said it still needed the buses for its replacement program, but was waiting for state funding" but now doesn't), and NABI was told it has no chance because of the artic debacle, and CTA wants articulated buses down the road, maybe that leaves Nova as the sole bidder (they sold a few to NYC MTA), or CTA has to hope that Orion brings the Daimler bus from Germany.

On the other hand, the bus builders (except Orion*) seem desperate enough to deal on the transit authorities' terms. Also, the CTA's statement that the state money has not come through yet seems supported by all three service boards' recent postings, so that contingency (assuming that it exists) is still in operation.

The more interesting question, implied by my prior comment, is that instead of giving Notice to Proceed sometime early in 2009, as implied by NF's Press Releases, CTA says in 2012 "we'll use this contract to replace some Novas, so here is your Notice to Proceed." Since the prices for the base order and option 1 are "firm," and for the other options based on the Producer Price Index from the Notice to Proceed, could CTA then stick NF with the 2008 price (supposedly around $840,000 each), or New Flyer say "the price now is $1 million each, and the PPI goes from there?" Besides causing more bad blood, CTA definitely is in lawsuit territory.

It is also in lawsuit territory if it appears that in 2012, the 2008 hybrid technology is dated, and CTA decides to replace Novas with DesignLine 42 footers (which would seem more suitable, if they test out in New York), or whatever new battery technology develops in the next couple of years.

_________________

*This press release says that Orion has a full order book for 2009, and orders made in August will be delivered some time in 2010.

I guess trying to find new bidders is easier said than done. I'm surprised VanHool wasn't added in the potential list of sellers for the artic order (they have standing out in California and DC), if it ever comes down to it. I would think that NABI would still have to take in penalties for the defects of the bus, but lets not beat that dead horse down.

Question is: How many buses would we need to replace (or mothball) the 6000's and eventually replace some of the Novas, especially if we're focusing on Artics?

[Busjack]

...

Question is: How many buses would we need to replace (or mothball) the 6000's and eventually replace some of the Novas, especially if we're focusing on Artics?

If we accept what Huberman said when the lease for the 150 was accepted that artics can replace 40 footers on a 3 for 4 basis, then:

215 for the 287 remaining 6000s.

360 for the reported 480 remaining 6400s

575 total.

However, since this budget seems to assume scrapping the 6000s without replacement, then you are talking the 360. And, of course, what they would put on primarily NW side routes that barely support a Nova now.

[sw4400]

If we accept what Huberman said when the lease for the 150 was accepted that artics can replace 40 footers on a 3 for 4 basis, then:

215 for the 287 remaining 6000s.

360 for the reported 480 remaining 6400s

575 total.

However, since this budget seems to assume scrapping the 6000s without replacement, then you are talking the 360. And, of course, what they would put on primarily NW side routes that barely support a Nova now.

To get off the Senior Free Rides topic... just for now(it's hurting my head), let me ask this...

We currently have a contract for up to 900 DE60LF's, but can that contract be modified to say be 450 DE60LF's and 450 DE40LF's(w/GM/Allison Powertrain)? That would, in effect, either replace the Flxibles 287+163 extras to start retirment of NOVAs around 2012? And the other 450 could be either all DE60LF's or maybe 406 DE60LF's and 44 DE30LF's(if applicable) to retire the remaining NOVA's in 2013 and replace the Optimas around 2018? Just a thought....

[Busjack]

To get off the Senior Free Rides topic... just for now(it's hurting my head), let me ask this...

We currently have a contract for up to 900 DE60LF's, but can that contract be modified to say be 450 DE60LF's and 450 DE40LF's(w/GM/Allison Powertrain)? ...

Theoretically, anything can be done if CTA negotiates in good faith with New Flyer about it.

However, as this contract is structured, it is for a base order of 140, plus various options for the rest. As I mentioned earlier, a clean way to end the contract is not to exercise option 1, which would kill options 2-4. The last 500 (or the majority of the order) are in options 3 and 4, anyway.

[sw4400]

Ok, back to the Seniors Ride Program again... *sigh*

***WARNING: Part post/part mini-rant(I apologize for the mini-rant to the chicagobus.org members, but I'm hurting with all the bills right now, and CTA raising prices on fares and passes is just getting to me!)

This program needs to end, but apparently, not everyone agrees. Well, I hope your jaw is dropped when the repeal is done!!! The nerve of this "Rob Sherman"!!! I bet he's a Senior who has a Lexus or a Mercedes, and can afford to go on cruises and expensive Bingo halls!!! Well, Mr. Sherman, this lines for you...

Say bye to Free Rides for ALL Seniors!!!,"!!! Aarmeggedon is coming for those who can afford the free ride, but have been "blessed" by R. Blagoevich to have what is rightfully NOT yours!!! This goes out to all those Seniors that will be losing the Free Ride because they make too much... Can't pay the simple $1 fare, DON'T ride the Bus or "L" then!!! No Free Rides for you!!! NEXT!!!

Now I feel a bit better. I'll feel a lot better when these rides are modified to how they should be!!!

[Busjack]

Ok, back to the Seniors Ride Program again... *sigh*

***WARNING: Part post/part mini-rant(I apologize for the mini-rant to the chicagobus.org members, but I'm hurting with all the bills right now, and CTA raising prices on fares and passes is just getting to me!)

This program needs to end, but apparently, not everyone agrees. Well, I hope your jaw is dropped when the repeal is done!!! The nerve of this "Rob Sherman"!!! I bet he's a Senior who has a Lexus or a Mercedes, and can afford to go on cruises and expensive Bingo halls!!! Well, Mr. Sherman, this lines for you...

Say bye to Free Rides for ALL Seniors!!!,"!!! Aarmeggedon is coming for those who can afford the free ride, but have been "blessed" by R. Blagoevich to have what is rightfully NOT yours!!! This goes out to all those Seniors that will be losing the Free Ride because they make too much... Can't pay the simple $1 fare, DON'T ride the Bus or "L" then!!! No Free Rides for you!!! NEXT!!!

Now I feel a bit better. I'll feel a lot better when these rides are modified to how they should be!!!

Remember, this depends on the state legislature, which is dependable for not being dependable. To use a Jewel-Osco metaphor, don't count your chickens until they hatch, at this point, we're just at the carton of eggs stage at $1.69, and get a tranquilizer until they do. ,

[sw4400]

Looks like the Seniors aren't too happy about the Free Rides being for only those who make under $22,000/yr. Check out this article I found taped to a bus shelter...

[Busjack]

I believe seniors are more literate than that. At least someone (apparently not the original author) blamed Stroger. Why not?

[BusHunter]

Remember, this depends on the state legislature, which is dependable for not being dependable. To use a Jewel-Osco metaphor, don't count your chickens until they hatch, at this point, we're just at the carton of eggs stage at $1.69, and get a tranquilizer until they do. ,

Also, something we are not thinking about is how many seniors are below 22 k that ride the CTA. I would think many seniors at a higher income level would not ride the CTA on a regular basis. One's below would. So how many fares are they actually saving. Even if they did pass this, it probably wouldn't do to much to the 300 million plus deficit. Probably it would only drop fares 25 to 50 cents. Probably we need something more dramatic. I would suggest that Pace and CTA merge and Metra take care of all the service outside of Cook and eastern Dupage counties. Pace and CTA could eliminate alot of white collar workers, not needing 2 headquarters. All the double service between CTA and Pace would be solved, the fare cards and passes would be compatible with each other and they would have a single budget between the two. It seems that both agencies are working against each other especially with these passes. Also with one issueing transfers and one not accepting them. They need to work together, especially with the RTA as the parent company.

[Busjack]

... They need to work together, especially with the RTA as the parent company.

I agree with that, but what is needed is to abolish all the service boards, and have one board, properly apportioned, with business and transit experts on it, sort of on the NY MTA model. No adjustments around the edges.

Given the paratransit funding bill I just mentioned, I see this state legislature moving in the opposite direction than one promoting efficiency. Just wait until CTA and Metra react to a formula under which their subsidies go down as Pace runs up the paratransit deficit.

As to how much would be saved by abolishing free rides, I'm sure the transit authorities are basing their estimates on the number of existing free riders times 1/2 of the full fare, but obviously, if free rides are taken away, the number of riders will go down, in addition to how many circuit-breaker riders would apparently still get free fares.