More New Flyers

[MVTArider]

On a different note, I read this press release from the New Flyer website, and it contains a curious misstatement at the end:

... However, if anyone has their own speculation, I'll be entertained to read it.

Obama slipped into Kedzie late one night a couple years ago, along with some other Democrats, some Republicans, a few Independents, a fiscal conservative, and Elvis, and they drove off with 67 hybrid artics while Dick Cheney distracted the overworked staff by feigning a heart attack. The 67 artics are currently parked behind the White House. CTA officials refuse to acknowledge the loss because it would mean admitting their lax security measures towards everything except people taking photos of buses, and the fact that no one in charge even knew 67 buses were missing until just a month ago.

Edit: This just in, a reliable source from an important organization, whom I cannot mention, just informed me that Obama likes to occasionally take a drive along the Beltway in one of the artics on Saturday evenings to blow off some steam, and chill out listening to the Cummins ISL purring along with the Allison EP-50 hybrid system.

Edited May 14, 2012 by MVTArider

[Busjack]

This list I put up leads me to a question. If the first Novas were received in Dec 2000 and as stated by the CTA the new artics arrive in the fall, then technically wouldn't there be a problem retiring buses that are not yet 12 years old. (unless they are counting from date of manufacture) For that matter post #6708 buses cannot be retired yet at all as those came in around 4/2002. As far as NF's comment that this is for fleet expansion, I don't see how that can be done without a new garage unless it is a small expansion. Maybe that conclusion is based on CTA not being able to retire buses maybe.

The first I knew that there were any on the street was this picture by Bill V. of 6472. Unfortunately, not dated.

You have a whole bunch listed in roughly that area as "2001 on ?." However, my recollection was that they were on the streets at least as of Thanksgiving 2000. There were also some 654? buses then that were on 77 routes, but later went to Archer. So, apparently your research had some holes in it, but I don't think my memory does.

Nonetheless, I'm sure that a month or two is close enough for government work.

Also, with regard to NF's announcement that ""Part of it is adding additional capacity to de-crowd on peak points,'' Claypool said." I take "add capacity" as meaning: "substituting a bus on which you can cram 120 passengers for a bus on which you can cram 90 passengers." That doesn't mean fleet expansion.

As for See Tea Eh's point, NF news releases have been fouled up before.

[Busjack]

...

Edit: This just in, a reliable source from an important organization, whom I cannot mention, just informed me that Obama likes to occasionally take a drive along the Beltway in one of the artics on Saturday evenings to blow off some steam, and chill out listening to the Cummins ISL purring along with the Allison EP-50 hybrid system.

With the reports that when Obama visits his Chicago home, he takes Air Force One to O'Hare, then takes a presidential helicopter to about 31st St. Beach, to get into a limo to go to the 5000 block of Greenwood, I don't think so.

Heck, even at 31st, he could get on a #4 bus. In fact, we have reported here earlier that when he is at home, the #2 and #15 buses get rerouted around it.

However, with the reports of Biden's motorcades fouling up the expressways, maybe he does it. B)

[Sam92]

Any word on the Hybrids that Durbin supposedly gave CTA money for last fall? Or are they a part of this order?

[Busjack]

Any word on the Hybrids that Durbin supposedly gave CTA money for last fall? Or are they a part of this order?

As far as what probably is the answer to that question, see my response to your "overanalyze" post.

The more obvious question would be what was the source of money for the other 67, and why it was not tied to CTA being the eco-aware organization it previously claimed to be. However, at this point, I personally don't care.

[MRCTA]

I guess this is goodbye to the CTA Novas

[ChicagoNova]

And all this time I thought CTA wouldn't go back to purchasing non-hybrid diesel buses. I've learned how wrong I was.

[BusHunter]

The first I knew that there were any on the street was this picture by Bill V. of 6472. Unfortunately, not dated.

You have a whole bunch listed in roughly that area as "2001 on ?." However, my recollection was that they were on the streets at least as of Thanksgiving 2000. There were also some 654? buses then that were on 77 routes, but later went to Archer. So, apparently your research had some holes in it, but I don't think my memory does.

Nonetheless, I'm sure that a month or two is close enough for government work.

Also, with regard to NF's announcement that ""Part of it is adding additional capacity to de-crowd on peak points,'' Claypool said." I take "add capacity" as meaning: "substituting a bus on which you can cram 120 passengers for a bus on which you can cram 90 passengers." That doesn't mean fleet expansion.

As for See Tea Eh's point, NF news releases have been fouled up before.

They were not on the streets before Thanksgiving 2000, deliveries most likely started from the factory just after that date. They did not enter revenue service though until early Dec, I have newspapers on the official press release for the Novas complete with your favorite transit exec. Frank Kruesi dated 12/6/2000, if you want proof. Maybe instead of relying on memory you need to document the statistics.

[BusHunter]

Given that there are almost 500 Novas in the fleet, (470-something, if you take out the few that have been wrecked), an order for 100 buses won't come close to replacing the fleet, so I don't think we need to worry about the 6700s/6800s not being old enough to retire yet.

Given that the buses are part of an existing option contract, New Flyer probably had the delivery positions already slotted, so it makes more sense for CTA to get the buses then (even if a few months early), rather than renegotiate the deal with New Flyer, possibly at a higher cost, just so they can arrive a few months later and be technically after the Novas turn 12.

On a different note, I read this press release from the New Flyer website, and it contains a curious misstatement at the end:

The actual number of hybrids in the CTA fleet will be 261 (208 existing artics + 20 40-footers + 33 new ones).

As far as retirements go, I was just stating that if they can't retire before 12 years, they would have to retire in order. A #6600 couldn't be retired until well into 2013 or early 2014. If you have a bad bus at 74th you would like to retire, you can't. I think CTA is jumping the gun slightly. While it may be smart to get 33 hybrids to go with 30 Durbin hybrids, I think they should've just waited on the diesels. They are definitely not going to saying at the press conference these buses are more fuel efficient than the Novas they replace. They could've ordered maybe a year or so from now and been more liberal on what they can and can't retire. Maybe with small orders, they could've been all hybrids. They do save you in the long run. Just think of the 100's of thousands of gallons of gas they'll be purchasing.

[Sam92]

As far as what probably is the answer to that question, see my response to your "overanalyze" post.

The more obvious question would be what was the source of money for the other 67, and why it was not tied to CTA being the eco-aware organization it previously claimed to be. However, at this point, I personally don't care.

I get you now.... and that wasn't me who said you over-analyzed . But maybe they're taking it easy on the hybrids because of clearance issues with viaducts. Something tells me another garage may start receiving them besides 77th

[Busjack]

They were not on the streets before Thanksgiving 2000, deliveries most likely started from the factory just after that date. They did not enter revenue service though until early Dec, I have newspapers on the official press release for the Novas complete with your favorite transit exec.

Well, since your lists have holes in them, I suggest you go back and fill them.

I know what I saw.

Since someone complained about marking updates:

Unlike...

I get you now.... and that wasn't me who said you over-analyzed .

It was kind of late at night

While it may be smart to get 33 hybrids to go with 30 Durbin hybrids, I think they should've just waited on the diesels.

Note what I said to Sam, above. If you have an indication that they actually ordered something with those grants, please post that. The only inference at the moment is that the Durbin grant paid for those 33.

They are definitely not going to saying at They could've ordered maybe a year or so from now and been more liberal on what they can and can't retire. Maybe with small orders, they could've been all hybrids.

I'm sure it is a confluence of what options and money are available. As desperate as NF appeared with the 140 bus order that didn't exist, I'm sure the issue would have been the delivery date, not whether they would have taken an order for 100 hybrids at, say $1.1 million dollars each. After all, this screws them out of reporting 33.5 EUs on their backlog report. As the NF press release appears to indicate, CTA still got a better deal than if they had bid it out.

Note also that the release says:

The new buses will be delivered late this year through the middle of 2013, said Marina Popovic, CTA vice president of purchasing and warehousing.

They all aren't showing up Dec. 1, 2012.

[jajuan]

Well not so much CTA as New Flyer. The only thing CTA posted (of which I know) was the RFP* and probably the agenda item. New Flyer was the one that claimed that they had the contract, then claimed they were going to start production, then stated that they didn't have the contract, and then revealed that there were some shells to sell.

My view on the "set in stone" is based on that CTA miraculously already had 58 options when ARRA passed, and then said they were from WMATA. On the other hand, Pace said from the original award of the ElDo contract that it already had options for up to 222, 57 of which apparently hadn't been exercised at the time of ARRA, and 223 were eventually acquired.**

________

*Talking about Seattle and LA peddling options, guess what would have happened if CTA actually had given Notice to Proceed on the first installment of the 900 .

**Close enough math for government work, although I'm still not sure of the status of 2766.

I suppose I should have said one of the main sources in that CTA itself did mention the up to 900 in press release info on its website. So the lesson there is unlease one of those press release says solid contract or otherwise gives indication deliveries will be made for x number of buses rather than simply saying deal, it's not completely set in stone for 100 buses, which is the point I was making. They could still be getting less. You already brought up the question of what's their funding source for the 67 beyond the so called Durbin 33. :P

[jajuan]

Looking at the mentioned press release on that, CTA just gives the generic and vague 'combination of federal funds and local resources'.

[BusHunter]

Well, since your lists have holes in them, I suggest you go back and fill them.

I know what I saw.

So your saying I'm wrong, CTA's wrong and the Chicago Tribune is wrong? Buses were rolling around the month before because you saw this. Sorry, I can't accept that information without proof. At least I can provide documented proof. If Bill V. has your proof I can discredit that. In the press release it states the first buses would use King Drive. So a bus on 87th would not corroborate with that statement. Nowhere in his picture does it say this is the first bus. I don't know where you are assuming that from. As far as the holes, I don't see them. There are as accurate as I can make them. But if you still are wondering when the ?'s went into service it was before the previous bus with a date and the last one. (end of discussion)

[Busjack]

I suppose I should have said one of the main sources in that CTA itself did mention the up to 900 in press release info on its website. So the lesson there is unlease one of those press release says solid contract or otherwise gives indication deliveries will be made for x number of buses rather than simply saying deal, it's not completely set in stone for 100 buses, which is the point I was making. They could still be getting less. You already brought up the question of what's their funding source for the 67 beyond the so called Durbin 33.

Personally, I don't recall any CTA announcement of a contract. This Google search only turns up the 58 stimulus buses. Similarly, a general search for "new flyer" + "manufacture and deliver" only brings up the 1050 and 150 bus orders.

There are many more obvious examples than the one you gave. For instance, the Compobus announcements, which are easier to trace, said "25" then "up to 25" then "1 with options for more," which resulted in "none."

Similarly, with the Optimas, there was an announcement of "a base order of 50, with options to 125," and they got 45.

There are two explanations for this in the CTA requests for bids:

• Each line item in the request says "CTA will take up to X number of units," and then has a blank for how many it will take. For instance, in the 900 bus request, it said:

Price per bus for One Hundred Forty (140) Buses (SEE NOTE BELOW)

NOTE: The Authority will purchase _____ Buses under the Base Order Quantity of this Contract. (The Authority will fill in the number of buses to be purchased after submission of the RFP and prior to "notice of award" of Contract).

• The requests usually provide that there is no obligation until the Authority gives Notice to Proceed. Of course, Pace says there is no obligation unless there is money about 5 different ways.

Here there are matching CTA and New Flyer releases, so we can assume that the options were assigned and exercised.

While I had said earlier that I suppose that a small order for the Durbin buses could be by assigning options, if CTA really wanted to lock down prices, it could, as in the 900 RFP, announce for bids for up to, say 400 buses over the next five years, with a base order of up to 100. However, that would have taken another 6 months and probably cost more.

By my last statement, I'm surprised that the Tribune hasn't pounced on another "no bid" CTA contract.

[Busjack]

But if you still are wondering when the ?'s went into service it was before the previous bus with a date and the last one. (end of discussion)

Also, no DAY OR MONTH.

Compare "6400 1/06/2000 on 3" with 9 "6472 2001 on ?" Apparently you do not have the dates.

And I didn't say that 87th was the first route, but that that was the first indication I saw that they were on the streets.

[jajuan]

Personally, I don't recall any CTA announcement of a contract. This Google search only turns up the 58 stimulus buses. Similarly, a general search for "new flyer" + "manufacture and deliver" only brings up the 1050 and 150 bus orders.

There are many more obvious examples than the one you gave. For instance, the Compobus announcements, which are easier to trace, said "25" then "up to 25" then "1 with options for more," which resulted in "none."

Similarly, with the Optimas, there was an announcement of "a base order of 50, with options to 125," and they got 45.

There are two explanations for this in the CTA requests for bids:

• Each line item in the request says "CTA will take up to X number of units," and then has a blank for how many it will take. For instance, in the 900 bus request, it said:

• The requests usually provide that there is no obligation until the Authority gives Notice to Proceed. Of course, Pace says there is no obligation unless there is money about 5 different ways.

Here there are matching CTA and New Flyer releases, so we can assume that the options were assigned and exercised.

While I had said earlier that I suppose that a small order for the Durbin buses could be by assigning options, if CTA really wanted to lock down prices, it could, as in the 900 RFP, announce for bids for up to, say 400 buses over the next five years, with a base order of up to 100. However, that would have taken another 6 months and probably cost more.

By my last statement, I'm surprised that the Tribune hasn't pounced on another "no bid" CTA contract.

And that's where you're misunderstanding me. I didn't and wasn't saying CTA announced a contract with New Flyer for the up 900. At the time they were posting in a press release that they had come to a 'deal' with New Flyer pending further capital funding which we all know by now didn't happen. In a nutshell basically what the press release boiled down to was them saying if they got capital money from the state they wanted to go into contract with New Flyer for the up to 900 in their RFP. If I understand it correctly they hadn't given a notice to proceed but were saying New Flyer outbid whatever manufacturers placed bids. This is the point where I agree with you New Flyer jumped the gun and said they had an actual contract when there wasn't one.

[sw4400]

Well, one thing is apparent according to this article... the New Flyers will be D60LFR and DE60LFR models. CTA is getting a full package from New Flyer on these 100 units...

The order for 60LFR series buses is backed by New Flyer's lifetime in-service support and care, providing best value in direct operating costs for the CTA. The buses will be provided with:

-A dedicated New Flyer Life Cycle Manager, who will oversee the full range of products, services and support provided by the New Flyer team.

-Regionally based service representatives and warehouses providing technical expertise and spare parts support.

-Tailored classroom and e-Learning programs designed to provide the CTA's employees with training to optimize bus operation and maintenance.

-Simple yet comprehensive new product warranty, administered through the New Flyer iWarranty System.

[Busjack]

Well, one thing is apparent according to this article... the New Flyers will be D60LFR and DE60LFR models. CTA is getting a full package from New Flyer on these 100 units...

Oh, those Canadians. In fact, there is an error, since, as pointed out earlier by others than me, a diesel artic counts only as 1.5 EUs. Artic adds about $200K to the price, and hybrid another $200K, at least under 2009 pricing.

In fact, there is another bit of b.s. in the New Flyer release of May 10.

The $80.1 million acquisition is "a very good price because we looked at how comparable it was to our last purchase from New Flyer and it was literally within several thousand dollars (per bus) of our previous purchase,'' Popovic said.

In one sense, that's true, since Huberman said that the DELF60s were $800K each, and while this contract is for 100 buses for $80 million, 2/3rds are diesels. The way I figure it, it looks like $730K for each diesel and $940K for each hybrid.

BTW, NF must be real sure it has an order this time, given Press Releases of May 10 and May 14. The May 14 one must have been the basis of the Canadian Newswire story.

[greenstreet]

You have a whole bunch listed in roughly that area as "2001 on ?." However, my recollection was that they were on the streets at least as of Thanksgiving 2000. There were also some 654? buses then that were on 77 routes, but later went to Archer. So, apparently your research had some holes in it, but I don't think my memory does.

They were not on the streets before Thanksgiving 2000, deliveries most likely started from the factory just after that date. They did not enter revenue service though until early Dec, I have newspapers on the official press release for the Novas complete with your favorite transit exec. Frank Kruesi dated 12/6/2000, if you want proof. Maybe instead of relying on memory you need to document the statistics.

I know what I saw.

The CTA announced that the first of the Novas were put into service on December 5, 2000.

[greenstreet]

The way I figure it, it looks like $730K for each diesel and $940K for each hybrid.

Close -

from the Trib (5/10/12):

"The CTA is paying $740,000 for each of the 67 diesel buses and $897,000 for each of the 33 hybrid buses, CTA spokeswoman Molly Sullivan said. The purchase from New Flyer includes spare parts and extended warranties, she said."

[geneking7320]

Does anyone think the hybrids will use $157,000 less in fuel vs the straight diesels

in 12 years?

[Busjack]

"The CTA is paying $740,000 for each of the 67 diesel buses and $897,000 for each of the 33 hybrid buses, CTA spokeswoman Molly Sullivan said. ...

Given that a diesel bus now is $60K less than a hybrid option in 2007, maybe Popovic is right, and also NF saying that it is 2 EUs. As noted below, only $157K less than a hybrid, so the gap is narrowing.

Does anyone think the hybrids will use $157,000 less in fuel vs the straight diesels

in 12 years?

There would be a way to compute it, but one would have to know the actual numbers for the miles per gallon increase provided by the hybrid. As Pace says, they are supposedly monitoring it.

I don't have the numbers, but it probably is something like 3.8 miles per gallon from 3.4 miles per gallon, at a current about $3.30 a gallon for diesel tax free (Monthly Financial Report), times 500,000 miles service life. For whatever value this approximation provides, and the strength of my math, I get a saving of about 9500 gallons, or $31,000. Of course, we, and certainly CTA, don't know what diesel fuel prices are going to do in the next 14 years.

[BusHunter]

Oh, those Canadians. In fact, there is an error, since, as pointed out earlier by others than me, a diesel artic counts only as 1.5 EUs. Artic adds about $200K to the price, and hybrid another $200K, at least under 2009 pricing.

In fact, there is another bit of b.s. in the New Flyer release of May 10.

In one sense, that's true, since Huberman said that the DELF60s were $800K each, and while this contract is for 100 buses for $80 million, 2/3rds are diesels. The way I figure it, it looks like $730K for each diesel and $940K for each hybrid.

BTW, NF must be real sure it has an order this time, given Press Releases of May 10 and May 14. The May 14 one must have been the basis of the Canadian Newswire story.

Now that we know these will be 60 foot LFR's, wouldn't it seem sorta weird to put them into regular local or current express service? (unless there was no other choice on what model they would receive) The press release linked to above does state there will be customer service amenities, which leaves me to wonder whether these will have onboard Bustracker system screens like they intend to do for the Jeffery BRT pilot. With the delivery slated for mid 2013, they are getting closer to a possible #49 and #9 BRT startup date. While they seem to be a little early for that, there's nothing that says they couldn't possibly bring back #X49 and #X9 with these buses in anticipation of BRT. With the NABI's going to the shredder, they now may have the room to house these buses, maybe at 77th, for this service. If that's not the case, I see these buses working there way to Jeffery BRT, as these buses will probably be superior to the 53 buses that would be mocked up to BRT standards in house. Just a few ideas I wanted to pass along. BTW, is there any North American city running LFR's that does not use them for a BRT or BRT like (like x)service?

[MetroShadow]

BTW, is there any North American city running LFR's that does not use them for a BRT or BRT like (like x)service?

Minneapolis (usually for the 16 service along University).

I would count DC also, but they have LFA's for Local and Express service.