RJL6000 Posted March 7, 2008 Report Share Posted March 7, 2008 We're about half done with the 1600's now. I spoke to a North Park Driver at my store last night, and he said he drove 1649 just a day or two ago out of NP. He said the ride was very bouncy, like it had bad springs or suspension though. Likely a numerical error, as BusExpert32 said. You might have meant 1469, not 1649. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted March 7, 2008 Report Share Posted March 7, 2008 Likely a numerical error, as BusExpert32 said. You might have meant 1469, not 1649. Not necessarily. 1469 has been here for months and it's been reported in previous posts that the 1600 mark was broken a few weeks ago. So if the delivery schedule has sped back up, it's possible to be near 1649 now, if not already there if the driver remembered correctly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusExpert32 Posted March 7, 2008 Report Share Posted March 7, 2008 Not necessarily. 1469 has been here for months and it's been reported in previous posts that the 1600 mark was broken a few weeks ago. So if the delivery schedule has sped back up, it's possible to be near 1649 now, if not already there if the driver remembered correctly. Not correct. It is not possible for the order to be in the mid 1600s at the moment because option 3 (beginning with NF #1630) has not begun yet, and will not begin for a few weeks to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 7, 2008 Report Share Posted March 7, 2008 All 1400s are in service now, we should be in the middle of the the 1600s right about now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted March 7, 2008 Report Share Posted March 7, 2008 Not correct. It is not possible for the order to be in the mid 1600s at the moment because option 3 (beginning with NF #1630) has not begun yet, and will not begin for a few weeks to come. Considering some of it is speculation to begin with, the exact number isn't really as important to me right now as much as the work being done to try to improve service now that the operational funding crisis is resolved for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trainman8119 Posted March 7, 2008 Report Share Posted March 7, 2008 All 1400s are in service now, we should be in the middle of the the 1600s right about now. Personally, I don't think we are into option 3 yet. Although people reported seeing 1600 series buses a week or 2 before I did, I have not seen any higher than 1601 on the north end and 1606 on the south end, and when I saw 1606 last week it looked like it was right off the assembly line. I would think if were were up to 1640+ I would have wandered across something higher than 1606 someplace in the past few days !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted March 7, 2008 Report Share Posted March 7, 2008 I was also looking at the PDF of Ron Huberman's presentation, and it stated that the hybrid arctics would be replacing 200 of the oldest buses remaining when the deliveries start in August. So given Busjack's post that we are 20 buses into Option 3 of the 1000s if we do indeed happen to be up to at least 1649 at NP as mentioned in another post, that would mean that a large portion of the 6000s might indeed be retired. That is if CTA doesn't go after the 5800s first. I'm making this speculation from what Huberman stated about wanting to replace the CTA's oldest buses as soon as possible to improve customer satisfaction and service and therefore the strong suggestion that they just might immediately move ahead with Option 4 after the completion of Option 3.To clarify, I wasn't asserting anything independent of sw's post, just making an observation based on it.rmadison previously posted that Option 3 should follow in a few weeks of the end of Option 2 and should have a few tweaks. Again, not making an independent observation, but it is possible that 1649 was a prototype for those tweaks. Or it is possible that the driver was numerically dyslexic. In any event, there is no reason why Options 3 and 4 shouldn't fall into place, and the end of those deliveries (2029?) come in Feb. 2009, as scheduled. Both Options 3 and 4 were exercised at the same time, so there is no reason for any gap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sw4400 Posted March 7, 2008 Report Share Posted March 7, 2008 To clarify, I wasn't asserting anything independent of sw's post, just making an observation based on it.rmadison previously posted that Option 3 should follow in a few weeks of the end of Option 2 and should have a few tweaks. Again, not making an independent observation, but it is possible that 1649 was a prototype for those tweaks. Or it is possible that the driver was numerically dyslexic. In any event, there is no reason why Options 3 and 4 shouldn't fall into place, and the end of those deliveries (2029?) come in Feb. 2009, as scheduled. Both Options 3 and 4 were exercised at the same time, so there is no reason for any gap. I think Kevin's news about the 600-Series DE60LF's clarifies when the 5800's and 6000's will begin retirement. The 1000-Series, 800-Series and 900-Series are here to replace the 5300-Series and 4400-Series only. The 600-Series will replace the 5800-Series completely(although I cannot see a 60-ft New Flyer on Lincoln) and half of the 6000-Series(if they go numerically, 6000-6149, otherwise who knows what'll be around after half are retired.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted March 7, 2008 Report Share Posted March 7, 2008 I think Kevin's news about the 600-Series DE60LF's clarifies when the 5800's and 6000's will begin retirement. The 1000-Series, 800-Series and 900-Series are here to replace the 5300-Series and 4400-Series only. The 600-Series will replace the 5800-Series completely(although I cannot see a 60-ft New Flyer on Lincoln) and half of the 6000-Series(if they go numerically, 6000-6149, otherwise who knows what'll be around after half are retired.) Considering what's happened up to now, whatever is junk will be gone, 1991 buses will be gone, and stuff will be moved around, and very little will be replaced in place or numeric order. I'm still betting (but don't have inside info) that 77th will have a huge chunk of the 600s (for 3, 4, 79, and 87, at least). Also given that there is a period during Aug 08-Feb 09 when both 1000s and 600s are supposed to be delivered, anything can happen. One can't assume that one series is replacing another. One can also probably assume that given the proposal to move routes and articulated buses out of NP, NP isn't getting any more articulateds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusHunter Posted March 7, 2008 Report Share Posted March 7, 2008 To clarify all the confusing posts, about the #1600's. We are up to #1620 now. It was on the 2 last night. No way are we up to #1649!! That's the next option. That's impossible, there is going to be a pause between options. RMadison says so, I'd believe him over some operator. Besides haven't we learned our lesson in talking with operators from Danielsmusic's experience. They are not reliable for information unless they are transit buffs, like we are. In truth sw44oo's story is partially correct, The newer buses are having a spring difference. I've noticed this myself, but it only seems to be on the #1600's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeymc77 Posted March 7, 2008 Report Share Posted March 7, 2008 Seen 1624 on I 290 today around noon out by Thorndale. Most likely on its way to Chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusExpert32 Posted March 8, 2008 Report Share Posted March 8, 2008 Seen 1624 on I 290 today around noon out by Thorndale. Most likely on its way to Chicago According to reliable sources, this number would acceptable as of today. I truely don't understand all of this bewilderment with the New Flyers being delivered. There will most likely be a 2-3 week gap, or maybe even longer, after #1629 is delivered. So how would anyone believe we are in the mid 1600s today, unless to just spark up some speculation on this thread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted March 8, 2008 Report Share Posted March 8, 2008 According to reliable sources, this number would acceptable as of today. I truely don't understand all of this bewilderment with the New Flyers being delivered. There will most likely be a 2-3 week gap, or maybe even longer, after #1629 is delivered. So how would anyone believe we are in the mid 1600s today, unless to just spark up some speculation on this thread? There wasn't much confusion on my part since my first response after the mention of 1649 stated if the operator was correct in what he heard about the other operator driving 1649, these are my observations. Turns out my speculations made last night turned out to be correct since a mere twenty buses regardless of whether they are here now or later don't make much difference in the general possibilities of what I was saying could happen when considering a total of 550 buses (150 artics and 400 Flyers) to be delivered to replace old equipment, which includes the remaining 400+ 1991 buses and some of the 1995 buses. Since the remaining just over 400 Flyers is more than enough to replace the remaining TMCs and 5300s, it was still safe to say the 5800s and a great deal of the 6000s could be retired. The only question was if the 5800s would be scrapped first or part of the 6000s. I also was basing a large part of my speculation moreso on Huberman's presentation about things to come in improving the CTA now that the funding crisis is resolved for now than on speculation about how the Flyers are now. I for one don't understand the overexcitement about a mistake in how soon 20 new buses will be here when those buses are going to be here soon anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusExpert32 Posted March 8, 2008 Report Share Posted March 8, 2008 I for one don't understand the overexcitement about a mistake in how soon 20 new buses will be here when those buses are going to be here soon anyway. Pointing out mistakes is part of the forum, so I don't know how someone can tell if I'm excited about it by just looking at a post. I was actually curious about the time period for the gap between options 2 and 3, so when I read bizzare reports, and then everyone seems to believe them, I did feel quite irritated. And yes, some of us are interested with the delivery gaps because having a constant number of older buses to enjoy for a little while is somewhat interesting to transit enthusiasts. And there are also those who can't wait for all of the new buses to arrive, so we have to take all of this into consideration with our excitement over the deliveries. Also, the mere 20 buses in this case is also extended to April because of the option break that no one seems to take any notice of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted March 8, 2008 Report Share Posted March 8, 2008 Pointing out mistakes is part of the forum, so I don't know how some can tell if I'm excited about it by just looking at a post. I was actually curious about the time period for the gap between options 2 and 3, so when I read bizzare reports, and then everyone seems to believe them, I did feel quite irritated. And yes, some of us are interested with the delivery gaps because having a constant number of older buses to enjoy for a little while is somewhat interesting to transit enthusiasts. And there are also those who can't wait for all of the new buses to arrive, so we have to take all of this into consideration with our excitement over the deliveries. Also, the mere 20 buses in this case is also extended to April because of the option break that no one seems to take any notice of. Ok. Those are valid points and observations and I don't mind my mistakes being pointed out when I make them, but I think you're still missing my point that a couple other members and I didn't necessarily believe it was true that the count was actually up to the number stated considering the post about others in the forum seeing 1601 at NP and a couple even numbered 1600s at 103rd was only two or three weeks ago and these are among the last buses in Option 2. That would still be too fast even at the normal pace of deliveries and if the CTA wasn't between Options. That is why I phrased my initial response the way that I did. I'm an enthusiast myself but I don't take some of what can be seen as speculation too seriously because the other point of the forum is to voice ideas and opinions about what we think is going on with transit in the area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busjack Posted March 8, 2008 Report Share Posted March 8, 2008 To put it simply, unless any of you has access to the roster computer or New Flyer's production system, none of you know for sure. I just finished editing an article on negative evidence (American Jurisprudence, Evidence 318), and one of the principles is that ... a witness may not testify to the nonexistence of a fact where the fact might have existed without the person being aware of it. ... Evidence of a negative character is not admissible if the absence of positive evidence of the fact does not logically suggest the negative. ... Negative evidence is weak and usually not sufficient to overcome positive testimony that the alleged fact did exist Now that is related to my prior comments about bus hunting techniques and the existence of buses where people said it was impossible, and then found them. If any of you are in a position to testify as to the nonexistence of a fact, please state your background. The only circumstantial evidence here based on personal knowledge is that someone saw 1624 on the expressway. At least I admitted that I was basing an observation on someone else's post. I also agree with whoever posted that you'll have 1649, if not now, in a couple of weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted March 8, 2008 Report Share Posted March 8, 2008 To put it simply, unless any of you has access to the roster computer or New Flyer's production system, none of you know for sure. I just finished editing an article on negative evidence (American Jurisprudence, Evidence 318), and one of the principles is that Now that is related to my prior comments about bus hunting techniques and the existence of buses where people said it was impossible, and then found them. If any of you are in a position to testify as to the nonexistence of a fact, please state your background. The only circumstantial evidence here based on personal knowledge is that someone saw 1624 on the expressway. At least I admitted that I was basing an observation on someone else's post. I also agree with whoever posted that you'll have 1649, if not now, in a couple of weeks. Hence the constant references and acknowledgement that part of my own observations were based in part on speculation. By being able to do that we are in fact acknowledging that there is the possibility of and room for error. That being said, there isn't much reason to get too bent out of shape. The error can be brought up and we all move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrethebusman Posted March 8, 2008 Report Share Posted March 8, 2008 Do any of you guys have any info on how many 4900's have become work buses? I have seen WB11 and WB13, so it appears there are quite a few... Andre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusExpert32 Posted March 8, 2008 Report Share Posted March 8, 2008 To put it simply, unless any of you has access to the roster computer or New Flyer's production system, none of you know for sure. I just finished editing an article on negative evidence (American Jurisprudence, Evidence 318), and one of the principles is that Now that is related to my prior comments about bus hunting techniques and the existence of buses where people said it was impossible, and then found them. If any of you are in a position to testify as to the nonexistence of a fact, please state your background. The only circumstantial evidence here based on personal knowledge is that someone saw 1624 on the expressway. At least I admitted that I was basing an observation on someone else's post. I also agree with whoever posted that you'll have 1649, if not now, in a couple of weeks. About the hunting techniques, the only way anyone can be sure of all of the bus numbers and series is if they work for or have close relation to the CTA and/or its employees. It's simple; no one is going know anything for sure if they just wander the streets looking for each bus. Yes, the theory of negative evidence is correct, but it can be proven in this case by looking at all of the processes involved. The speed of delivery, the option gap, and that the CTA employees on this forum have all noted that this negative is correct. We are not up to #1649, even if the theory of positive logic may prove it to be reality; it's just not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted March 8, 2008 Report Share Posted March 8, 2008 About the hunting techniques, the only way anyone can be sure of all of the bus numbers and series is if they work for or have close relation to the CTA and/or its employees. It's simple; no one is going know anything for sure if they just wander the streets looking for each bus. Yes, the theory of negative evidence is correct, but it can be proven in this case by looking at all of the processes involved. The speed of delivery, the option gap, and that the CTA employees on this forum have all noted that this negative is correct. We are not up to #1649, even if the theory of positive logic may prove it to be reality; it's just not. Ok. No point in beating a dead horse. I believe we all got the point by now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geneking7320 Posted March 11, 2008 Report Share Posted March 11, 2008 Hi Folks; Monday between 4:45pm and 5:00pm I saw CTA New Flyer #1623 parked on the west side of Clark St. The lights and destination sign were off and the bus was too close to a #22 Clark bus for me to see the garage decal on the windshield (if CTA still uses them). BTW I was on the #24 at the time which hindered my view somewhat. Gene King Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted March 11, 2008 Report Share Posted March 11, 2008 Hi Folks; Monday between 4:45pm and 5:00pm I saw CTA New Flyer #1623 parked on the west side of Clark St. The lights and destination sign were off and the bus was too close to a #22 Clark bus for me to see the garage decal on the windshield (if CTA still uses them). BTW I was on the #24 at the time which hindered my view somewhat. Gene King North Park and 103rd are splitting this current delivery of buses with 103rd getting the even numbered buses and NP getting the odd numbered ones. So the bus you saw is assigned to NP. Given that its among the newest arrivals it probably wouldn't have it's garage decal yet. But if it did it would have the 'P' decal that is used by NP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 North Park and 103rd are splitting this current delivery of buses with 103rd getting the even numbered buses and NP getting the odd numbered ones. So the bus you saw is assigned to NP. Given that its among the newest arrivals it probably wouldn't have it's garage decal yet. But if it did it would have the 'P' decal that is used by NP. Busfans, I just arrived in Rockford an hour ago, on the way out here I spotted 2 EB buses before Belvidere, CTA New Flyers #1596 and #1632 in one hell of a hurry. Surprisingly the buses were fairly clean and shiny, no snow on them. I kept an eye out for any more buses but didnt spot any. Saturday mornings always seem to be the best time to spot brand new NF deliveries to Chicago and east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jesi2282 Posted March 27, 2008 Report Share Posted March 27, 2008 The next option of New Flyers may be heading to Kedzie Garage to start replacing their remaining 110 TMC's, 1630 is currently listed at Kedzie Garage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajuan Posted March 27, 2008 Report Share Posted March 27, 2008 The next option of New Flyers may be heading to Kedzie Garage to start replacing their remaining 110 TMC's , 1630 is currently listed at Kedzie Garage. Thanks for the info. I'll be looking out for it. Maybe by some small miracle of common sense we can hope for no needless swapping in the name of numerical consistancy. I don't thank poor Trainman can take anymore of this nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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