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More Bus Moves


sw4400

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2 hours ago, jajuan said:

Well if 74th needs about 160 NFs to stay at roughly 260 buses total, their NF numbers would have to start either in the 1380s or 1390s if their NFs cut off somewhere in the 1550s. And that's likely the cutoff, otherwise you'd then have 77th hovering closer to 200 NFs instead of roughly 180. BH is already feeling that 77th's bus count is heavier than needed, though the upcoming extension of #4 to 115th may fix that. That's why I'm thinking things to line up with 74th having the last 15-20 1300s. As for the speculation of all the Allisons with the longitudinal seating being at NP, that has NP's NF numbers looking like this 1875-2029, taking into account BH's average roster counts of about 155. I'm really not seeing why they'd want to do that though as that comes out to more transferring than necessary from looking at how the majority of the Allisons are already at Chicago and a larger number of 1700s were already at NP. That makes this part of the number fixing seem a backward move. 

(Throwing my hands up) HELLO!!!! :DxD

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1 hour ago, ajm522 said:

Saw 1610 today while on the 52 and it became apparent that it somehow belongs to both 03 and K lol. Never saw that before.

Actually it's belongs only to K now. 103rd gave up all its 1600s to K in trade for K's remaining lower numbered 1200s, with its NF standards now being the approximate block of 1041-1218. BH thinks it's possible that 1041-44 may be in transit to FG though  if not already there as the lowest current NFs at 103rd have been in flux with minor migrations from 103rd to FG. 

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7 minutes ago, jajuan said:

Actually it's belongs only to K now. 103rd gave up all its 1600s to K in trade for K's remaining lower numbered 1200s, with its NF standards now being the approximate block of 1041-1218. BH thinks it's possible that 1041-44 may be in transit to FG though  if not already there as the lowest current NFs at 103rd have been in flux with minor migrations from 103rd to FG. 

No unfortunately #1041-44's still at 103rd. But this #1377 to 77th might signal that possibly 77th might lose a few more #1219's to send to 103rd for them to purge  #1041's to FG. But indeed if they have 160 #1000's at 77th, #1377 should belong at 77th because 160 would be up to #1379.

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11 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

No unfortunately #1041-44's still at 103rd. But this #1377 to 77th might signal that possibly 77th might lose a few more #1219's to send to 103rd for them to purge  #1041's to FG. But indeed if they have 160 #1000's at 77th, #1377 should belong at 77th because 160 would be up to #1379.

Actually I was quoting the average 160 NF count your roster tracking has had for 74th since the 6400s got purged from there to back thoughts that occurred to me that if 74th's cutoff ends up being in the 1550s with the current trend of 1400s being sent there, the lower end cutoff for 74th's NFs should end up being in either the 1380s or 1390s depending on where in the 1550s 74th's NFs end. That also keeps 77th's count from being too high a number with it appearing to set to get the lion's share of both 1200s and 1300s. We both still agree though that swap patterns line up for it to make sense that 77th to have gotten 1377.

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7 minutes ago, jajuan said:

Actually I was quoting the average 160 NF count your roster tracking has had for 74th since the 6400s got purged from there to back thoughts that occurred to me that if 74th's cutoff ends up being in the 1550s with the current trend of 1400s being sent there, the lower end cutoff for 74th's NFs should end up being in either the 1380s or 1390s depending on where in the 1550s 74th's NFs end. That also keeps 77th's count from being too high a number with it appearing to set to get the lion's share of both 1200s and 1300s. We both still agree though that swap patterns line up for it to make sense that 77th to have gotten 1377.

Yeah my bad, 77th has 194 #1000 buses if you can believe that so it could take up to #1413. That does sound nuts. If 77th is really going to house 295 buses, they are going to have to take on more routes. Else they'll probably be short somewhere. All these new routes coming into play on the north, south and lower west sides makes me wonder anyway just how many #6400's will be left. Where they might have had 30 buses maybe now they'll have 60. They really do need that #8325 option though. Still though I think it might be hard even for the electric buses to retire the #6400's now.

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Also remember, these transfers are all equal in and out. So if you want to send say 10 1900's Chicago to North Park, North Park needs to give up 10 of something. and Chicago needs to get 10 of something. So some of these are three-cornered moves, and some are "temporary" since in some cases there are probably nothing at Garage A or B that is supposed to end up at Garage C. So you send something that is supposed to go somewhere else "for now" and move the, again next week.

You still have to wonder, though, who came up with this whole plan, and who higher up approved it.

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29 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

They plan to send 30 more #1000 buses to the glen??? o.O:P If it doesn't go back to 77th that may actually be a possibility.

70 was the target number of them at Forest Glen before they went bye bye a couple of years ago. #1249 might be the magic number hypothetically.

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I can't really see how they could get more than they had which was 69 I believe at one time, so 70 if they do get there will probably be it. The more they get, the more possibility maybe they might share the last 150 buses if they get the option. So while it might be 125/75 it wouldn't be the 125/75 we'd be expecting. (#1000's/#7900's) Still something is going to have to fill all these new runs this summer and fall so, they can't take too many #1000's away.

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Wouldn't it have made more sense to allocate two or three numerical blocks of 1000s to each garage instead of just a single one?  Equipment shifts are inevitable.  As an example, what if NP was to need five buses and 103 could spare five?  Instead of simply reassigning five buses from 103 to NP,  25 bus moves would be required: from 103 to 77(5),  77 to 74(5),  74 to K(5),  K to C(5), and C to NP(5).   Tunnel vision!

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2 hours ago, sw4400 said:

I'm still holding the possibility of a 125/125 split at FG, or a 125/75 split of Nova to New Flyer.... so the roster should be one of the two once all the dust settles:

8200-8324

1000-1124

(125/125 split)

8200-8324

1000-1074

125/75 split)

 

2 hours ago, BusHunter said:

I can't really see how they could get more than they had which was 69 I believe at one time, so 70 if they do get there will probably be it. The more they get, the more possibility maybe they might share the last 150 buses if they get the option. So while it might be 125/75 it wouldn't be the 125/75 we'd be expecting. (#1000's/#7900's) Still something is going to have to fill all these new runs this summer and fall so, they can't take too many #1000's away.

I gotta agree with BH's last point. With all the new runs coming to south side routes, the #26 in particular since it's relevant to 103rd, they can't just take that many buses from 103rd. Remember something would have to replace those 125 buses you keep holding out for SW. And with those new runs set to come on the south side in addition to the #11 expansion and the ongoing retirements of 6400s, I frankly don't see CTA being able to spare 125 NFs to place in FG. I'm seeing them not going much farther than 45 NFs for FG in the immediate future with so much else going on in bus operations. I also agree with Andre in questioning whose idea it was to consolidate single number blocks of NFs per garage as well as who approved it for much the same reasons as wordguy outlined. The garages do in fact fluctuate bus needs from season to season, and a ridiculous number of swaps would be needed to accommodate those minor and simple fluctuations and keep single contiguous blocks in place, and that's not counting the restrictions TSP will put on 74th and NP NF assignments once those are done to take care of Western Avenue being TSP equipped by the end of the year.

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They might be able to do the south side in a way that wouldn't use up many buses. If you pair #95E and #95W, that shouldn't need new buses, I would think it would need less as they are eliminating two terminals and two layovers. The #26 has deadheads already going in the opposite direction, basically the additional buses would be just what was running locally at the time. (could be 5 or 6 buses) Running them late doesn't affect anything. 77th has 295 buses now, they might actually be able to run the #4 to 115th with what they have. If the #34 didn't increase service in the rush, you wouldn't need more buses. The #11 now might need 5 or 6 extra buses, none in the morning rush which seems to use more buses I notice. (Maybe some operators are missing their 2nd half, I don't know) Maybe they could escape a few extra buses, we'll see. 31st will need about 4 buses if it is to run with 30 minute headways, again no morning service. So maybe they wouldn't need so many buses. This may be one of the secret reasons for no morning service on those routes.

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31 minutes ago, BusHunter said:

They might be able to do the south side in a way that wouldn't use up many buses. If you pair #95E and #95W, that shouldn't need new buses, I would think it would need less as they are eliminating two terminals and two layovers. The #26 has deadheads already going in the opposite direction, basically the additional buses would be just what was running locally at the time. (could be 5 or 6 buses) Running them late doesn't affect anything. 77th has 295 buses now, they might actually be able to run the #4 to 115th with what they have. If the #34 didn't increase service in the rush, you wouldn't need more buses. The #11 now might need 5 or 6 extra buses, none in the morning rush which seems to use more buses I notice. (Maybe some operators are missing their 2nd half, I don't know) Maybe they could escape a few extra buses, we'll see. 31st will need about 4 buses if it is to run with 30 minute headways, again no morning service. So maybe they wouldn't need so many buses. This may be one of the secret reasons for no morning service on those routes.

Still looking for a secret angle to why 11 and 31 will have no AM rush service. xD Those re because it was mainly seniors, as far as the official word goes, that were pushing their respective aldermen to press CTA about their returns. And the standard thinking is that few seniors are going to start going anywhere until after the AM rush ends. But I still don't see 125 NFs going to FG any time soon. Maybe in several months time when a bigger chunk of 6400s are gone, but not now especially not when you argued that the 8200s will be coming in at a slower rate than the other 7900s did at the three previous garages that got New Novas.

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On May 7, 2016 at 3:58 PM, garmon757 said:

You forgot #1965 to Chicago also.  

*me being in denial* > hope that 77th can keep remaining ones  rode 1993 and that bus is a beast  < being in denial over lol  

That is odd what could it be. If NP were getting them wouldn't it be other way around (1944 to NP). That is interesting that 1965 went down. 

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29 minutes ago, ajm522 said:

*me being in denial* > hope that 77th can keep remaining ones  rode 1993 and that bus is a beast  < being in denial over lol  

That is odd what could it be. If NP were getting them wouldn't it be other way around (1944 to NP). That is interesting that 1965 went down. 

Nooooo silly, you forgot to mention #1965 was at North Park when you were predicting that the current Allison 1900s at North Park might be sent to Chicago. 

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35 minutes ago, ajm522 said:

*me being in denial* > hope that 77th can keep remaining ones  rode 1993 and that bus is a beast  < being in denial over lol  

That is odd what could it be. If NP were getting them wouldn't it be other way around (1944 to NP). That is interesting that 1965 went down. 

The odds are against 77th keeping any 1900s since it seems destined to get 1200s and 1300s in this current swap madness.

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